Ukraine can be proud but not happy

Tomorrow will mark six months since Russia invaded Ukraine as well as Ukrainian independence day. The Ukrainians have a lot to be proud of. They have so far foiled Russian President Putin’s effort to deny the former Soviet republic its sovereignty. Realism should temper that pride. Russia has succeeded in taking control of Ukraine’s east and part of its south.

Territorial integrity compromised

The Russians have expanded, marginally but significantly, their control in Donbas. They have essentially taken all of Luhansk and threaten the part of Donetsk that remains in Ukrainian control. The Russians have also established their much-desired land bridge to Crimea through Mariupol and pressed northwest to take Kherson as well as threaten Mikolaiv and Odesa. Ukraine without the territory Russia now occupies would be a rump of its former self and face constant threats from its north (via Belarus), east, and south.

It isn’t over

So the war is far from over, despite the successful defense of Kiev and Kharkiv as well as the enormous losses inflicted on the demoralized and disorganized Russian army, air force, and navy. The Ukrainians lack the manpower to conduct a conventional offense but are using their supplies of NATO-origin artillery, drones, anti-tank missiles, and other weapons to batter the Russians and their supply lines.

Winter is coming. The Ukrainians will try to win before winter if the opportunity for a successful offensive presents itself. But by now the Russians are dug in and presumably understand their own weaknesses as well as the Ukrainians’ strengths. Only a sudden collapse of the Russian army would likely give the Ukrainians the opportunity they want.

The Russians also know Ukraine’s weaknesses

The Ukrainian will to fight may still be strong, but NATO solidarity has been waning. The US has been pumping in weapons and ammunition, but Europe is lagging:

Winter, when the Russians will no doubt cut off European antagonists’ gas supplies, will be hard for Germany in particular. The Germans have cut their dependency on Russia dramatically. They are also building gas stocks and may keep operating three nuclear plants beyond their scheduled closure at the end of this year. But that may not be enough to meet the country’s needs. Putin is banking on making life hard for Chancellor Scholz.

Prospects for negotiations are dim

The current situation looks like a mutually hurting stalemate, which is a condition for successful negotiations. But there is a second condition: a way out. Neither President Zelensky nor President Putin sees a way of ending the war with anything like the current territorial control. For Zelensky, it would be a plain defeat. Putin might be able to sell it at home, not least because he has little opposition and full control of the media. But his real aim is to end Ukraine as a separate state and incorporate it into the Russian Federation, as it was once a republic within the Soviet Union. Zelensky is captive of his country’s aspirations. Putin is captive of his own ambition.

Kiev and Moscow did manage to come to agreement on safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports. That agreement seems to be working so far, but it won’t have a big impact on world grain supplies. For Putin the main purpose is to keep the Africa and the Middle East from abandoning their relative neutrality and going over to the West. The revenue is useful to Ukraine, mainly to keep its farmers from throwing in their lot with the Russian occupiers.

Expanding the scope of negotiations beyond grain exports will be difficult. Even normal humanitarian exchanges of civilians and prisoners of war don’t appear to be happening. The Russians are shipping unwilling Ukrainians to Russia, de-populating the territory Moscow plans to keep. How they will repopulate it is anyone’s guess. There is no excess of people in Russia. Ukraine may be more attractive than Siberia, but the low population density in the latter is already a big problem for Russia.

The best that can be said

The Ukraine war has displaced at least 14 million people, half of whom have fled abroad, while another 13 million are estimated to be trapped in unsafe areas. That makes well over half of Ukraine’s pre-war population of over 44 million. The humanitarian response has been strong, but how long it will last is another question. The number of casualties is unclear, but is certainly in multiple tens of thousands on both sides.

The best that can be said is that Europe has awakened to the threat from Russia. The Baltic states and Poland are especially keen on a Russian defeat in Ukraine, because otherwise they might be next. Germany has also seen the threat. Sweden and Finland have abandoned neutrality and are joining NATO, if Turkey allows. The softer parts of Europe include Hungary, which already has a filo-Russian government, and Italy, which may get one after its election September 25. France and Turkey have at times seemed to waiver, but more in the interest of serving as mediators than actually supporting Russia.

The Ukrainians are going to need more of the courage they have already demonstrated. The U.S. and Europe need to keep them well-supplied. Proud Ukraine is not a happy Ukraine. This war is from over.

Slava Ukraini!