Day: September 5, 2022
The best we can hope for
News from Russia these days is striking:
- Moscow has shut off a main gas supply to Europe, in retaliation for European sanctions responding to the invasion of Ukraine.
- President Putin has approved a new foreign policy based on the “Russian Home” concept, which denies the sovereignty and territorial integrity of neighboring states.
- A Russian court has revoked the license of an independent newspaper (Novaya Gazeta) anad another has condemned a journalist to 22 years in prison for treason.
Fiona Hill and Angela Stent have detailed the distorted understanding of history that drives Putin’s future ambitions. The question remains: what to do about it?
Gas cutoff
Europe has been preparing for a Russian gas cutoff, expected this winter. Germany has had some success in filling stocks and lining up alternative supplies. That may well have triggered the earlier-than-anticipated Russian move. Prices have skyrocked will generate a political backlash in much of Europe, weakening support for Ukraine.
European countries are moving quickly to shore up their energy companies and line up alternative supplies. Germany is restarting coal plants. It can also restart some of its nuclear plants, if need be. American exports of natural gas to Europe are booming, but shipment and delivery capacities are limited. Conservation has already saved a good deal of energy in Europe. Heightened prices will save more.
Russian Home
The Russian Home doctrine is one that imperils all of Russia’s immediate neighbors. It signals that Russia feels entitled not only to protect Russian-speakers living beyond Russia’s borders, but that it is prepared to intervene politically and militarily to protect them from whatever Moscow regards as persecution, real or imagined.
Serbia’s President Vucic treasures a similar doctrine, the Serbian Home, that justifies Belgrade’s interference in Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. No doubt Xi Jinping will come up with a Chinese Home if he feels it required to intervene in Taiwan.
Putin won’t stop interfering in his neighbors’ yards until something stops him. For now that means mainly NATO supplies of equipment and training for the Ukrainians in addition to heightened NATO deployments in the Baltic countries and Poland. Soon it will also mean Swedish and Finnish membership in the Alliance. Moscow has hinted it is ready for negotiations, but only if its conditions are met. The Ukrainians have heard this offer before and appear ready and willing to resist it.
Autocracy 2.0
Russia’s political system has gradually degenerated into an Autocracy 2.0. Putin grudgingly tolerates some individual freedom of speech, but not freedom of the press, freedom of association, or any serious political competition. He distributes economic benefits for the purpose of political control. Moscow tolerates and rewards minorities so long as they remain subservient to centralized power and do its bidding. The leadership of even the once-rebellious Chechens has accepted that bargain.
Putin has wisely left the door open for Russians who don’t like authoritarianism to leave. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, have taken advantage of the opportunity since the invasion of Ukraine. Some are political refugees, others economic migrants. There is little sign of dissent from the Ukraine war left inside Russia, though recently stepped-up efforts to recruit much-needed manpower for the army may generate some resistance.
The most committed anti-Putin voice is still Alexei Navalny, who returned to Russia voluntarily in 2021 after German doctors helped him recover from a Moscow poisoning attempt. He is now in solitary confinement in a maximum security prison. But his lawyers and supporters continue his campaign against Putin’s perfidies, in particular corruption and the war in Ukraine.
Not much choice
There really isn’t much choice when it comes to dealing with Putin. Giving in would whet his appetite. Continuing the war in Ukraine will bring lots of economic pain to Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, including a possible nuclear meltdown. But maintaining the West’s robust posture at least opens the possibility that the consequences of aggression will hit Putin at some point. That is the best we can hope for.
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Stevenson’s army, September 5
This seems right for Labor Day (courtesy of @ClydeHaberman):
-WaPo has a history of the holiday — established for political, anti-union purposes. FYI, the 1894 law also set Christmas as a federal holiday for the first time.
-Some Republicans are pushing for a convention to amend the Constitution. FYI, in the 1990s we were within 1 or 2 states for a similar convention to add a balanced budget amendment. A worried Congress passed a line item veto bill — that was soon ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Be careful: wholesale rewrites may contain too many extreme changes, and lose, as Chile’s new constitution did this weekend.
– NYT sees lots of low tech in Russian weapons.
– DOD seems divided over Africa policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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