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Geopolitics after the Russian aggression

I was unable to travel to Pristina for this FAS Forum conference focused on implications for the Balkans today, but I provided a video and talking points for the occasion.

• It is a pleasure to join you remotely, much as I would have liked to be with you in person. But obligations here have kept me from traveling.
• I’ll make just three points.

Russia will lose

• First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a serious blow not only to Ukraine but also to the existing world order. If Putin were to succeed, we would see more efforts of this sort in the future, including in the Balkans.
• The concept of the “Serbian World” is no less dangerous than the “Russian World.”
• Second, the Russians are on the path to a strategic defeat. Even if they were to win the war, or keep some Ukrainian territory, which is unlikely, they would lose the peace, as they haven’t got the resources or even the population required to rebuild Ukraine.

The right track is clear

• Third, those in the Balkans who are building liberal democracies and aiming for NATO and EU membership are on the right track and need to redouble their efforts.
• It would be a serious error to allow yourselves to be side-tracked into any effort that slows accession to the key Western institutions.
• That raises key questions about the Open Balkans initiative. Will it accelerate progress towards EU accession, or is it going to become an indefinite waiting room? Will it contribute to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all its participants, or will it favor the preferences of one?

So is the objective

• If, as I believe, Russia is defeated in Ukraine and forced back at least to its February 23 lines, if not all the way to its 2013 lines, EU enlargement will return as a serious proposition, if only because of Ukraine’s candidacy.
• I know how disappointing the EU’s performance in the Balkans has been. It has unjustifiably blocked even the visa waiver for Kosovo and accession talks for Albania.
• But that is all the more reason why those who want to be in the EU should not miss the political window next time it opens.
• Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will initiate that opportunity.
• It is not too early to begin preparing.

Not only rules but values

• In short, it means adopting European values, not only European rules and regulations.
• This is hard, not easy. Politicians even in democratic settings seek power and resist giving it up. You’ve seen that recently even in the United States.
• But going into opposition is a key role in any democratic system. It is the opposition that helps to ensure transparency and accountability.
• The institutions of the state should belong to no single political party. They need to serve, and hold accountable, whoever comes to power.
• To their credit, both Kosovo has seen peaceful alternation in power. May it ever be thus!

Autocracy will fail

• This is where autocracies like Russia and China fail.
• They mistake the strength of their temporary leaders for the strength of the state.
• That idea is suffering military defeat in Ukraine. Its defeat will open new opportunities in many parts of the world, but especially in the Balkans.
• Fortune favors the well-prepared. I hope you will be ready.