Month: October 2022
Life is unfair, so you need a strategy
Bledë Krasniqi from Television Tëvë 1, based in Prishtina, Kosovo, asked questions. I responded:
Q: As an expert on the issues of the Western Balkan, how have you seen the frequent visits to Kosovo and Serbia by the US emissary for the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, and the EU emissary, Miroslav Lajcak? Are these visits an indication that the final agreement between the two countries is near the end?
A: The envoys are trying to deliver a substantial agreement, but I’ll be happily surprised if they deliver a “final” one.
Vucic is not committed to stabiliity
Q: Escobar said that the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, is committed to regional stability? Do you agree with this statement?
A: No, I don’t agree. I think Vucic is committed to what he calls the Serbian world, in other words de facto greater Serbia. This threatens instability in both Bosnia and Kosovo [I should also have said Montenegro].
Why not ten minutes?
Q: The United States of America has asked the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, to postpone the implementation of the decision on the issue of license plates for another 10 months. In your opinion, should Kosovo take such a step?
A: Ten minutes is too long in my view. What is the reason for this American request?
No, the dialogue won’t end this year
Q: Do you believe that the Kosovo – Serbia dialogue will end this year? If so, under what conditions? Do you see relations between the two countries as tense recently?
A: Relations are certainly tense. I doubt the dialogue will end this year.
Yes, to the Association with conditions
Q: Should Kosovo establish the Association of Serbian Municipalities?
A: Yes, but only as part of a package that includes recognition and only with two conditions: 1) reciprocity for Albanian communities in Serbia and 2) compliance with the Kosovo Constitutional Court criteria.
Q: If the Association of Serbian municipalities is conditioned by the internationals, should the leaders of Kosovo accept this condition or do they have to look for other solution.
A: See my response above.
Q: Recently, the European Commission has also asked Kosovo to implement the Association without delays and obstacles? Should this count as a condition for visa liberalization?
A: I hope not.
Life is unfair
Q: Is it unfair to Kosovo the non-liberalization of visas by the European Council?
A: Yes it is unfair, but life is often unfair. Kosovo needs an improved strategy for getting what it wants from the EU.
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Stevenson’s army, October 22
– WaPo says Mar a Lago documents included sensitive materials about Iran and China.
– While I worry about a Russian attack from Belarus, NYT says officials doubt it.
– NYT lists other Ukrainian opportunities.
– NDAA amendment questions shift of SOCOM forces to Germany.
– SAIS prof Todd Harrison analyzes DOD 2023 budget.CFIUS announces new guidelines.
-Even Freedom Caucus wants return to “regular order.” See its critique of how the House runs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 20
– WSJ compares US & Chinese approaches to overseas bases.
– Washington Monthly says not all redistricting commissions are equal.
– FP China Brief has summary of party Congress so far
– Liz Truss resigns. Who might take over?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Support for Putin does not serve Belarusians
Miodrag Vlahovic, former Montenegrin ambassador to the Holy See and now president of the Montenegro Helsinki Committee, writes:
Alexander Lukashenko struggled to contain his anger as he gesticulated wildly at Vladimir Putin.
At a summit in the Black Sea city of Sochi last month, the tyrant of Belarus publicly reassured the tyrant of Russia not to worry about the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have fled the country since the Kremlin imposed partial conscription on its people.
What Belarus has lost
Lukashenko has some experience in this matter. He lost – and then stole – the election in his own country in 2020. Since then, Belarus has experienced significant brain drain, with thousands of Belarusian companies setting up shop in neighboring European countries.
“Alright 30,000, 50,000 (Russians) have fled,” Lukashenko advised Putin. “Let them leave. I do not know what you think about it, but I was not particularly worried when a few thousand left in 2020. They asked to go back, most of them want to go back. And these people are coming back.”
Unfortunately for the Belarusian economy and its remaining residents, this is not true.
Since Lukashenko ordered his secret police to overturn the peoples’ electoral will, more than 4,000 Belarusian small and medium sized businesses have relocated. They have gone mainly to countries inside the European Union, notably Poland. Many more have simply disappeared.
The details are dramatic
The crackdown has had a devastating effect on business confidence and inward investment. Leading Belarusian businessmen took fright, particularly those involved in the Hi-Tech Park (HTP). It was once one of the leading innovative technology clusters in Central and Eastern Europe.
For years, there was an unspoken contract between the Belarusian regime and an IT sector that funded so much of the country’s growth. We do not touch you, and you do not meddle in politics. The stolen 2020 election has disintegrated that tacit agreement.
Viktor Prokopenya, a Belarus-born fintech entrepreneur, criticized the assaults on democratic protestors. He then moved currency.com, a global web and app based trading platform that disrupted traditional finance, out of the country. Viktor Kisly, the billionaire chief executive of Wargaming, the company behind the popular online game World of Tanks; Arkady Dobkin, the owner of EPAM; Mikhail Chuprinsky, founder of robot manufacturer Rozum Robotics; and Mikita Mikado, CEO of PandaDoc, which provides document automation software, quickly followed.
The damage will be longterm
I know the damage that an exodus of humans and capital can do to a country’s prospects. I was foreign minister of Montenegro when it re-gained its independence in 2006, later becoming our first ambassador to the United States.
By the time we gained independence, the bitter Balkans War of the 1990s had wrought a devastating toll on the economies of south-eastern Europe, Montenegro included.
Figures from the World Bank suggest we lost around 12% of our population. Many of the emigrants were highly-educated managers, professionals, scientists, researchers, and technicians, together with young people striving for better training, education, careers and living prospects.
Montenegro is still feeling the effects today. The “brain drain” has undermined local democracy and social cohesion. Unemployment is around 15% – more than twice as high as the EU average.
This year’s Russian aggression on Ukraine and the effects of Western sanctions on Belarus – Russia’s key ally – have made Lukashenko’s reassurance to Putin in Sochi even more dubious.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, the outflow of businesses and entrepreneurs from Belarus has grown rapidly. In June alone, the number of newly registered businesses in Poland backed with Belarusian capital amounted to 254 companies. Last month, Polish president Andrzej Duda said that 150,000 Belarusians have received asylum and work in Poland, including thousands of protesters.
Back in Belarus, it is estimated that up to 80% of the vital IT industry will disappear. According to experts, this will cause a 4% drop in GDP.
If Lukashenko continues to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine then Belarus will continue to suffer gravely. The president of Germany’s digital association Bitkom recently admitted: “By bringing IT specialists from Russia and Belarus to us, the aggressor will be noticeably weakened.”
Ominous signs
The latest signs are ominous. In recent days, Lukashenko has said that Belarus and Russia are to deploy a joint military group and that thousands of Russian troops will be arriving in his country for drills.
It is extremely unlike the tyrant of Minsk will reconsider, opt for peace and start making decisions that support the citizens of his own country – and not Putin and Russian aggression on Ukraine.
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Stevenson’s aramy, October 19
– Sen. Leahy gets cut in Egypt aid.
– Senate likely to add $10 Billion for Taiwan.
– WaPo has more on retired officers working for foreign countries, this time UAE.
– GOP leader McCarthy says no blank check for Ukraine aid.
– NYT reports men missing from Moscow.
– I have some comments about new book on GOP.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Reciprocity is vital, but not everything
A visit last Saturday from a group of Albanian citizens of Serbia got me thinking again about the Belgrade/Pristina dialogue. It is stuck. While French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz are supposedly working on a new grand proposal, I’m inclined to think that neither President Vucic nor Prime Minister Kurti (this originally said ”Thaci,” apologies to both!) wants to do anything big at the moment. They are both busy consolidating power, using their mutual hostility as a means. I’ll be the first to applaud if the Macron/Scholz initiative succeeds. But if something big isn’t possible, smaller propositions may be worth considering. Here are a few, ranging from the mundane to the daring.
Reciprocity should be the rule
Reciprocity is a fundamental diplomatic principle. My visitors told me people at the State Department prefer the term “symmetry.” I confess I don’t understand the difference. The point is that whatever you ask of someone else you should be willing to give something equivalent in return, if an equivalent exists. So if there are ten reserved seats for Serbs in the Kosovo parliament (there are), Belgrade should be prepared to offer some proportional number of reserved seats to Albanians in the Serbian parliament (where there are none today).
This principle should apply as well to the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities, which Belgrade wants formed inside Kosovo. It should have no more executive authority than a comparable association of Albanian communities inside Serbia.
Reciprocity should also apply to military forces along the boundary/border between Serbia and Kosovo. The international community has restricted Kosovo from deploying its Security Force in the northern Serb-majority municipalities. Serbia should be likewise restricted from deploying its Army in Albanian-majority municipalities of southern Serbia. That is not the case today:
Lack of reciprocity is a mistake
The international community violated the principle of reciprocity/symmetry in establishing the Special Chambers to investigate crimes that occurred 1998-2000. Their mandate was limited to the territory of Kosovo. That was a serious mistake, not only for Kosovo but also for the United States. Serbian forces killed three Albanian American brothers (the Bytyqis) shortly after the war on Serbian territory. Despite Belgrade’s many promises, its prosecutors have not indicted those who ordered the murders. Two lower-level indictees have been acquitted. Washington should be telling Belgrade that it expects Serbia to prosecute the commanders or to accept the jurisdiction of the Special Chambers.
Some more reciprocity propositions
Here are a few more reciprocity propositions that would enliven the moribund dialogue process. They could also become steps towards eventual mutual recognition in any future Macron/Scholz proposal. Belgrade and Pristina should
- initiate military to military relations consistent with OSCE principles. Their chiefs of staff should be meeting regularly to exchange information on equipment, training, and deployment of their forces.
- agree and demarcate the boundary/border between them, without prejudice to the ultimate outcome of the dialogue. Good fences make good neighbors, as Kosovo discovered when it agreed and demarcated its border with Macedonia.
- base the Open Balkans initiative on equality among the entities participating, again without prejudice to the ultimate outcome of the dialogue. Kosovo would participate without the infamous asterisk (*) and footnote.
It’s not all about reciprocity
Reciprocity won’t settle everything between Pristina and Belgrade. There are some inherent asymmetries.
Belgrade has persistently harassed Kosovo Serbs who join the Kosovo Security Forces. The Serbian secret services and their proxies threaten both them and their families. The EU should be telling Belgrade that if the harassment doesn’t cease Serbia’s progress towards EU accession will stop. The Americans should end Serbia’s cooperation with the Ohio National Guard if the harassment continues.
The rape of tens of thousands of Kosovo women and girls by Serbian forces during the 1999 war has no comparable crime committed by Albanians in rebellion against Serbia. Belgrade should make a formal apology and offer compensation. The 1998/99 expulsion of Albanian civilians from Kosovo, and the murder of close to 10,000 of them, was a clear breach of the laws of war. On that issue too an apology and compensation would go a long way.
The historic Serb churches, monasteries, and other monuments in Kosovo have no comparable Albanian equivalent inside Serbia. The Kosovo government needs to be prepared not only to protect them from harm but also to convince the remaining Serb population in Kosovo that they will be fairly treated.
It’s not all about reciprocity. These items require political courage and unilateral action. But Serbian apologies and compensation would vastly improve Kosovo Albanian attitudes towards the country’s Serb population as well as its religious institutions. If Vucic is truly concerned about the welfare of Serbs in Kosovo (as he claims), he should consider apologies and compensation as a means to that end.
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