Month: October 2022
Stevenson’s army, October 17
– Mail-in voting rules may affect midterms.
– 28% of election-denier candidates are veterans, War Horse reports.
– Intercept reports on AIPAC election efforts.
– Belarus may be next Russian front, WSJ reports.
– Hill says Russia may conduct pre-election cyber attacks.
Charlie added later:
These can’t wait until Tuesday:
– New Yorker has excellent article on evolution of US support to Ukraine’s military.
– WSJ says US wants to keep B-52s in service.
– Max Boot says Israel-Lebanon agreement is a big win for Biden.
– Alice Hunt Friend says we don’t have standards on how civilians are supposed to do civ-mil relations.
– FP article details how JFK lied about Adlai Stevenson and the Cuba missile deal.
– National Security Archive has more on this.
A question for you: when did YOU learn that JFK had lied and actually made the Turkish missile removal part of the deal?
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Stevenson’s army, October 16
– NYT says many veterans now running for Congress aren’t centrists, but are pro-Trump anti-interventionists.
– Atlantic has an excerpt from another new book about January 6 with great detail about how the congressional leadership acted that day.
– Lawfare analyzes new executive order on signals intelligence.-
– Dan Drezner analyzes Putin’s decisions.
– NYT says Erdogan threatens Greece.
Charlie offered this yesterday:
– Carl Hulse wonder why so many Senators are leaving.
– GOP tries to block State’s “China House.”
– GOP wants to investigate think tanks.
– Scott Sagan has wise ideas for preventing a nuclear war.WSJ says Xi prepares for conflict with US
– Belarus under pressure to help Russia more.
– SAIS prof Paula Thornhill says civilians will decide Marine Corps future.
– State wants help from Silicon Valley.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 14
– NYT has important background on interagency debates before new order on Chinese tech.
– NYT also has details on US-Saudi pissing match.
– Axios has background on French West Africa policy.
– Military Times quotes conservatives arguing recruiting shortfalls are because the armed forces are too “woke.”
– US is punishing countries with child soldiers after waiving that sanction for years.
– NYT has short piece on subpoenaing former presidents, citing this CRS study.
– WaPo has details on the finally reopening Air & Space Museum.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The stab in the back that isn’t
The Biden Administration is portraying Saudi support for the OPEC+ reduction in oil production quotas as as betraying the Saudi-American alliance The Kingdom’s move also appears to align Riyadh with Moscow against Kyiv.
It doesn’t add up
There is a lot wrong with this perspective:
- The Saudis have never been US allies, either de jure or de facto. The relationship inaugurated in 1945 with a meeting between President Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdul Aziz has always been transactional. The US supplied security in exchange for moderate oil prices and reliable supplies. The relationship was not based on shared values or even common security concerns.
- Circumstances have changed. The US was once a major oil importer. It is now a modest net oil exporter. American hydrocarbon companies benefit handsomely from higher oil prices. Saudi Arabia in the 1970s and 1980s had trouble spending all of its oil revenue. It now requires prices of about $100/barrel in order to balance its national budget. Maintaining an absolute monarchy ruling over a much larger population is expensive.
- Saudi Arabia no longer maintains as much excess production capacity as once it did. It is down to perhaps 2 million barrels per day above current production levels. That is small compared to its previous excess capacity of 4 million barrels per day or more. This is in part due to the privatization of part of Aramco. That required the company to behave more like a profit-seeking enterprise rather than a a state-subsidized one.
- Oil around $100/barrel is required for the transition away from hydrocarbons. The many alternatives to oil and natural gas are far more competitive if the price of oil is high. You won’t be hearing this from the Green New Deal folks, but they know their interest in moving the US away from climate-changing carbon dioxide requires higher oil prices, not lower ones.
National interests prevail
What we are seeing is not a stab in the back, but a convergence of Saudi, Russian, and Iranian interests in higher oil prices. Riyadh, Moscow, and Tehran are all frightened that the impending slow-down in the world economy will lead to dramatic cuts in oil prices. Reducing production first serves their national interests.
The Americans are seeing all issues through Ukraine-tinted glasses. But others do not. Riyadh has made it clear it does not regard the Ukraine war as one in which it has a vital interest. This is not surprising. Even if the Kingdom did regard Ukraine as vital, why would an absolute monarchy with no regard for human rights favor Zelensky over Putin?
What is to be done?
The question is how the US should react. Proposals so far include continuing drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), allowing lawsuits against OPEC for price-fixing and cutting arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
Continuing drawdown of the SPR makes obvious sense. Its one million barrels per day have moderated oil prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The drawdown also returns substantial profits to the US Treasury (average acquisition price was about $30/barrel).
Cutting arms sales to the Kingdom doesn’t pass muster as a good idea. Riyadh will turn to others–read Russia or China or both–less fastidious about the conditions imposed. The Saudis like high tech American weapons. But they don’t really need them compete militarily with Iran, their only serious potential adversary in the region.
“NOPEC” legislation pending in Congress would allow lawsuits in the US against OPEC and OPEC+ for anti-competitive behavior. It is not clear that such lawsuits would be successful, or that they would lead to successful remedies. Nor would it likely improve relations with the Saudis. But at least this approach is consistent with US policy on monopolies and does not empower US adversaries.
Another approach, one politically less palatable, is to wait and see. If OPEC+ manages to maintain high oil prices, that will presumably incentivize alternatives worldwide. It won’t help the Democrats in the November election, but at least it is something the Biden Administration supports. If the world economy slows dramatically and prices either remain at current levels or fall, Biden will also have the last laugh.
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Stevenson’s army, October 12
– NYT says US cut sanctions on Cyprus to get it to transfer Russian weapons to Ukraine.
– Max Fisher says bombing capitals doesn’t win wars.
– SAIS prof Hal Brands warns against defeating Putin.
– Nate Cohn admits problems in polling.
Charlie later added these bonus items:
At long last, the Biden administration has released its required National Security Strategy Report. Here’s the text. And here’s is Jake Sullivan’s briefing on it.
Remember, these documents always sound good and reasonable. But some sentences will be quoted like scripture to win interagency debates.
There was a good history of these reports by Paul Lettow in TNSR last year. He served on the Bush 43 NSC.
A Brookings analyst warns we’re on the path to nuclear war.
WSJ says Ukraine is running circles around Russia.
Tom Ricks draws on his new book arguing that the civil rights movement used military tactics in this criticism of US generals. [I guess he wants them to read his book.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 11
– NYT says Biden is angry at Saudi Arabia.
– WSJ says Saudis “defied US warnings” about oil production cuts.
– RAND analyst says Putin’s successor likely to continue Ukraine war.
– Carl Bildt has suggestions for countering nuclear threat.
– Eliot Cohen assesses the next phase of the war.
– NYT warns of wider war between Tigray and Ethiopia.
– Lawfare analyzes little known authorization for counter-terror funding.
– WaPo has parade of horribles if Trump is reelected.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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