Zelensky knows how to get what he wants

I was preoccupied with granddaughters when Ukrainian President Zelensky elaborated his 10-point peace plan at the Bali G-19 (G20-Russia). It merits some attention.

He started with a convenient falsehood:

I am convinced now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped.

This is an indirect way of denying that Ukraine is responsible for the failure to negotiate an end to the war, which some in Washington are wanting. Zelensky knows that President Putin shows no sign of interest in serious negotiations (beyond a ceasefire that would enable Russia to recover from recent defeats). Certainly not on the terms that Zelensky proceeds to outline:

Radiation and nuclear safety

Fearing another Chernobyl-type accident, Zelensky wants immediate surrender of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power to Ukraine and the IAEA as well as restoration of its vital connections to the grid. He invites the IAEA to all of Ukraine’s 15 nuclear power plants as well as the Russian-occupied Chernobyl corpse.

Compellingly, he calls also for an end to Russia’s nuclear threats on the basis of “the Budapest Memorandum and respective capabilities of the signatory states.” The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of 1994 provided explicit US, UK, and Russian guarantees of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its then existing borders. In exchange, Ukraine surrendered the Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory and entered into the Nonproliferation Treaty.

Food security

Zelensky celebrated the existing agreement that has allowed 10 million tons of Ukrainian grain exports. He proposed expanding the scheme to 45 million tons this year and making it of indefinite duration. Clearly he is trying to win over grain-importing African and Middle Eastern countries that have sat on the fence or even supported Russia.

Energy security

Zelensky denounced Russia for trying to “turn cold into a weapon.” He claimed Moscow’s air attacks had destroyed about 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as well as capacity to export electricity to neighbors. Ukraine wants air defense systems and a UN mission to assess the damage and restoration needs. Kyiv also wants limits on what Europe pays for Russian oil and gas (for oil this was tentatively announced today).

Zelensky calls the attacks on energy and water facilities “terror,” presumably because the facilities are civilian. The attacks are intended to accomplish a political purpose, breaking Ukrainian will to fight. The Russian claim that the facilities are “dual purpose” and therefore legitimate targets might be valid in a legal war, but not in a war of aggression.

Release of all prisoners and deportees

Zelensky wants the thousands of captured Ukrainian military and civilians released, including 11,000 children whose names are known and tens of thousands more. Surprisingly, the Russian Defense Ministry has admitted to deporting 200,000 (!) children, supposedly from dangerous areas. Forced displacement is a war crime.

Zelensky angrily denounced the International Committee of the Red Cross for not providing assistance with access to prisoner camps and finding deported Ukrainians: “This self-withdrawal is the self-destruction of the Red Cross as an organization that was once respected.” He also indicated a willingness to release Russian prisoners the Ukrainians hold, “all for all,” including the deportees.

Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity

Zelensky cites Article 2 of the UN Charter. Based on “the sovereign equality of all its Members,” it requires states to refrain from the threat and use of force “against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”

Russia, Zelensky demands, “must reaffirm the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” That demand he suggested is not negotiable.

Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities

Justice

Zelensky wants Russia to withdraw from the entire territory of Ukraine and to restore its border with Russia. This presumably also means Crimea, though he did not say so. He pledged that this will end hostilities, meaning I suppose that then Ukraine would cease fighting.

Justice

“This is what stokes the greatest emotions,” Zelensky says. The Russians are leaving behind in territory Ukrainian forces liberate “torture chambers and mass burials of murdered people.” Russian air strikes he claimed had killed 430 children. He questioned what will be discovered in the future in a place like Mariupol. Resistance to the invasion there was particularly strong and fighting intense.

Zelensky wants a special international tribunal for Russian aggression against Ukraine and international compensation at Russian expense. Kyiv has proposed a UNGA compensation mechanism. Nothing of that sort can pass in the UNSC, where Moscow sits as a permanent member. Kyiv will also submit a proposal for the special court.

Ecocide, the need for immediate protection of environment

Shelling has destroyed forests. Mines, chemicals, and unexploded ordnance contaminate the land. Burned oil, chemical, and sewage plants as well as animal carcasses pollute the air. Coal mines are flooded. Zelensky says this includes a mine used for a nuclear test in 1979 that poses a threat to nearby rivers and the Black Sea. Zelensky wants experts to come help with all these environmental issues.

Prevention of escalation

Zelensky blames the Russian aggression on Ukraine’s lack of alliances. He also warns Russia might repeat it if Kyiv doesn’t get “effective security assurances.” These Kyiv has elaborated in a draft Kyiv Security Compact. It proposes to formalize a coalition of the willing to ensure Ukraine can defend itself. The willing would include US, UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and Nordic, Baltic, Central and Eastern European countries.

This is essentially the coalition supporting Ukraine already (and thus with a lot to lose if there were to be a recurrence of the war). Ukraine would not become a member of NATO, but key NATO allies would form a purpose-built post-war security architecture.

Confirmation of the end of the war

If there is political will, Zelensky hopes for a quick end to the war. He cites the positive experience with the grain exports, which is a product of UN and Türkiye mediation between Ukraine and Russia. He thinks that model might be repeated.

Conclusion

That would be nice. There is only one fly in the oinment. Russian President Putin would have to decide to give up on a war in which he has sacrificed something like 100,000 troops killed or wounded as well as massive defense materiel, surrender all the territory he claims to have annexed, explain to Russia’s citizens that he tanked their economy and destroyed their army without gaining anything, pay massive compensation, and be branded forever a loser.

Those are all things Zelensky wants, but they will only happen with Russian military defeat. Zelensky knows that.