Month: December 2022
So when is the right time to negotiate?
This question for Ukraine has aroused a good bit of interest. President Zelensky has made it clear that achieving his war aims will require a Russian defeat. Many others think that is impossible, as Russia has so much deeper manpower resources than Ukraine. Few are still considering President Putin’s preferred option. He would like a clear-cut Ukrainian defeat, but Kyiv’s stalwart defense and now successful offense has muted the likelihood of that outcome.
Ripeness
The canonical conflict management response to the question is “ripeness.” Negotiations have a chance for success when they meet two conditions:
- The parties are locked in a “mutually hurting stalemate” and are consequently looking for
- A “mutually enticing way out,” one at least as attractive as continuing the fight.
For the observer, judging ripeness is more difficult than feeling a piece of fruit at the grocery store, though it bears some resemblance. What is the feel of the conflict? Are both sides really hurting? What alternatives to a negotiated agreement do they still have that they have not pursued? What kind of “way out” would appeal to the warring parties? If the conditions are not fulfilled, are there outside forces prepared to create the necessary pressures? Or are there events that might do so?
Not now
I see little sign the current situation is ripe and even less that outside forces or events will force a serious negotiation. Ukraine is still advancing, albeit slowly. Its citizens still support the war effort. @PetroBurkovskyi reports:
Russian public opinion is more equivocal and harder to measure. But it doesn’t matter as much because Putin gets to make all the important decisions. He is is gearing up for another manpower mobilization this winter, including more prisoner brigades enlisted to brutalize their opponents. Putin has been explicit that talks will require as a pre-condition recognition of his claim to annexed territories.
Russia’s air attacks are persistent. Ukraine’s air defenses are improving and its ability to strike deep inside Russia developing. Both sides are escalating, within the limited means at their disposal. Ukraine’s minimal objectives–pushing back Russia to the February 23 lines–are still far off. Russia’s minimal objective of occupying fully the four provinces it has “annexed” are also far off.
Talk and fight
Lack of ripeness does not mean the sides shouldn’t or don’t communicate and even negotiate. It only means ending the war by negotiation is unlikely. The UN and Turkey have successfully negotiated with Kyv and Moscow an agreement that allows some export of Ukrainian grain, which will help to stave off famine in the Middle East and Africa. The warring arties no doubt also meet to exchange prisoners and allow civilians with urgent needs to cross confrontation lines. There is also non-verbal communication. The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a big Russian air base is a clear signal to Moscow of ability to escalate further.
It is common to “talk and fight,” since doing so can provide vital information on the enemy and his intentions as well as communicate messages of one’s own. Putin’s hints about the use of tactical nuclear weapons were intended to frighten. They did that in some Europeaan capitals and Washington, though not in Kyiv. The Ukrainian fight is already existential. The Russian one is not, except for Putin personally. It is unlikely that negotiations can produce an end to this war with him still in power.
There are two big known unknowns
Two key factors in deciding how this war ends will be what happens in Moscow and what happens in Washington. Putin won’t likely give in, but his successors might. Biden seems solid, despite his conditional offer to talk with Putin if the latter wants to end the war. That’s a big if. But Biden will come under a lot of pressure from some European and American experts to allow Russia half a loaf, on the unproven theory that will satisfy him. Biden will also face resistance from the substantial pro-Russian wing of the Republican Party, but they are unlikely to prevail.
So we are in for more war, and more jaw. Serious negotiations to end the war are not on the horizon.
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Stevenson’s army, December 5
– WSJ says US secretly modified HIMARS to limit attacks on Russia.
– WaPo reports on scandal involving US officers and Azerbaijan.
– David Ignatius reviews a week of Putin’s activities.
– The Hill tells of GOP demands regarding NDAA.
– Dan Drezner tries to explain Macron.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 4
– Just in time for this week’s orals, NYT has long article arguing orals are good for you.
– Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon assesses the new DOD report on China’s military power.
– Ruth Marcus has long WaPo article arguing originalism is bad legal theory.
– DNI Haines says Russia is using up its ammunition faster than replacement.
– DOD lists problems if there’s a year-long CR.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 3
– Politico says EU has a spy problem.
– Swedish institute has a report on the global state of democracy.
– Atlantic Council has a report on Ukraine from some former senior officials.
-WaPo warns of a West Bank crisis.
– Joe Nye likes the “double deterrence” of current US Taiwan policy.
– Slate article argues Supreme Court has been expanding its power by wrong reading of the law.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Zelensky knows how to get what he wants
I was preoccupied with granddaughters when Ukrainian President Zelensky elaborated his 10-point peace plan at the Bali G-19 (G20-Russia). It merits some attention.
He started with a convenient falsehood:
I am convinced now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped.
This is an indirect way of denying that Ukraine is responsible for the failure to negotiate an end to the war, which some in Washington are wanting. Zelensky knows that President Putin shows no sign of interest in serious negotiations (beyond a ceasefire that would enable Russia to recover from recent defeats). Certainly not on the terms that Zelensky proceeds to outline:
Radiation and nuclear safety
Fearing another Chernobyl-type accident, Zelensky wants immediate surrender of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power to Ukraine and the IAEA as well as restoration of its vital connections to the grid. He invites the IAEA to all of Ukraine’s 15 nuclear power plants as well as the Russian-occupied Chernobyl corpse.
Compellingly, he calls also for an end to Russia’s nuclear threats on the basis of “the Budapest Memorandum and respective capabilities of the signatory states.” The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of 1994 provided explicit US, UK, and Russian guarantees of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its then existing borders. In exchange, Ukraine surrendered the Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory and entered into the Nonproliferation Treaty.
Food security
Zelensky celebrated the existing agreement that has allowed 10 million tons of Ukrainian grain exports. He proposed expanding the scheme to 45 million tons this year and making it of indefinite duration. Clearly he is trying to win over grain-importing African and Middle Eastern countries that have sat on the fence or even supported Russia.
Energy security
Zelensky denounced Russia for trying to “turn cold into a weapon.” He claimed Moscow’s air attacks had destroyed about 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as well as capacity to export electricity to neighbors. Ukraine wants air defense systems and a UN mission to assess the damage and restoration needs. Kyiv also wants limits on what Europe pays for Russian oil and gas (for oil this was tentatively announced today).
Zelensky calls the attacks on energy and water facilities “terror,” presumably because the facilities are civilian. The attacks are intended to accomplish a political purpose, breaking Ukrainian will to fight. The Russian claim that the facilities are “dual purpose” and therefore legitimate targets might be valid in a legal war, but not in a war of aggression.
Release of all prisoners and deportees
Zelensky wants the thousands of captured Ukrainian military and civilians released, including 11,000 children whose names are known and tens of thousands more. Surprisingly, the Russian Defense Ministry has admitted to deporting 200,000 (!) children, supposedly from dangerous areas. Forced displacement is a war crime.
Zelensky angrily denounced the International Committee of the Red Cross for not providing assistance with access to prisoner camps and finding deported Ukrainians: “This self-withdrawal is the self-destruction of the Red Cross as an organization that was once respected.” He also indicated a willingness to release Russian prisoners the Ukrainians hold, “all for all,” including the deportees.
Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity
Zelensky cites Article 2 of the UN Charter. Based on “the sovereign equality of all its Members,” it requires states to refrain from the threat and use of force “against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”
Russia, Zelensky demands, “must reaffirm the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” That demand he suggested is not negotiable.
Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities
Justice
Zelensky wants Russia to withdraw from the entire territory of Ukraine and to restore its border with Russia. This presumably also means Crimea, though he did not say so. He pledged that this will end hostilities, meaning I suppose that then Ukraine would cease fighting.
Justice
“This is what stokes the greatest emotions,” Zelensky says. The Russians are leaving behind in territory Ukrainian forces liberate “torture chambers and mass burials of murdered people.” Russian air strikes he claimed had killed 430 children. He questioned what will be discovered in the future in a place like Mariupol. Resistance to the invasion there was particularly strong and fighting intense.
Zelensky wants a special international tribunal for Russian aggression against Ukraine and international compensation at Russian expense. Kyiv has proposed a UNGA compensation mechanism. Nothing of that sort can pass in the UNSC, where Moscow sits as a permanent member. Kyiv will also submit a proposal for the special court.
Ecocide, the need for immediate protection of environment
Shelling has destroyed forests. Mines, chemicals, and unexploded ordnance contaminate the land. Burned oil, chemical, and sewage plants as well as animal carcasses pollute the air. Coal mines are flooded. Zelensky says this includes a mine used for a nuclear test in 1979 that poses a threat to nearby rivers and the Black Sea. Zelensky wants experts to come help with all these environmental issues.
Prevention of escalation
Zelensky blames the Russian aggression on Ukraine’s lack of alliances. He also warns Russia might repeat it if Kyiv doesn’t get “effective security assurances.” These Kyiv has elaborated in a draft Kyiv Security Compact. It proposes to formalize a coalition of the willing to ensure Ukraine can defend itself. The willing would include US, UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and Nordic, Baltic, Central and Eastern European countries.
This is essentially the coalition supporting Ukraine already (and thus with a lot to lose if there were to be a recurrence of the war). Ukraine would not become a member of NATO, but key NATO allies would form a purpose-built post-war security architecture.
Confirmation of the end of the war
If there is political will, Zelensky hopes for a quick end to the war. He cites the positive experience with the grain exports, which is a product of UN and Türkiye mediation between Ukraine and Russia. He thinks that model might be repeated.
Conclusion
That would be nice. There is only one fly in the oinment. Russian President Putin would have to decide to give up on a war in which he has sacrificed something like 100,000 troops killed or wounded as well as massive defense materiel, surrender all the territory he claims to have annexed, explain to Russia’s citizens that he tanked their economy and destroyed their army without gaining anything, pay massive compensation, and be branded forever a loser.
Those are all things Zelensky wants, but they will only happen with Russian military defeat. Zelensky knows that.
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Stevenson’s army, December 2
– FYI, to facilitate overseas ballots in case of a runoff, military personnel got a ranked choice ballot for Georgia Senate in November.
– NDAA may authorize $10 billion in arms for Taiwan, but appropriators are resisting approving such funds.
– Breaking Defense explains DOD’s unfunded priority lists.
– WaPo says DOD plans expansion of Ukraine training.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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