What difference does a Speaker make?

A few words about the debacle unfolding in the United States Congress. The (slight) Republican majority has failed to unite to elect a Speaker after six ballots. What difference does it make? What does it signify for the future?

The Speaker matters

The Speaker is number three in the presidential succession. If something were to happen to President Biden and Vice President Harris, the Speaker would become both head of state and head of government. This has never happened in US history, but it could. The notion that Kevin McCarthy or any of the other Republican candidates would take over despite the Republican loss in 2020 is daunting.

The Speaker also presides over the House of Representatives, setting its agenda and timetable. Arch Democrat Nancy Pelosi was Speaker in the years 2007 to 2011 and again from 2019 to 2023. I’m sure Republicans during the Trump presidency regarded the prospect of her succession with as much horror as Democrats do McCarthy’s during the next two years.

The insurgents matter too

It is significant that the insurgents preventing McCarthy’s election come from the extreme right wing of the Republican Party. The twenty who have refused to vote for him deny the validity of the 2020 election, oppose vaccinations and legal abortion, support discrimination against LGBTQ+ people, advocate for religion in public life, want radical cuts in government spending as well as more restrictions on voting, and will devote enormous resources to investigating Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

Whether or not McCarthy is elected Speaker, these people will control not only the process but the substance of the House agenda for at least two years. Rumors this afternoon are that negotiations between McCarthy and the insurgents are progressing. That can happen only if he conforms to their demands, as he already has on many important issues. And they will only vote for an alternative if he or she adopts their program.

The news is not all bad

This means the House will be in the hands of the extreme right for the duration of the 118th Congress. If they stick together, they will be able to pass legislation. But if it lacks bipartisan support it will die in the Democratic-controlled Senate. They will also be able to hold interminable hearings on inane subjects (Hunter Biden’s laptop!) and subpoena witnesses. But the real problems will start when the Treasury needs to raise the debt ceiling, an unnecessary requirement that needs a majority in both the House and the Senate. The current limit will be reached some time this year. Failure to raise the debt ceiling would risk a US government default.

Apart from that eventuality, we can anticipate that for the next two years the course of the economy and the war in Ukraine will be key issues. If inflation continues to subside and the Fed manages to avoid a hard landing, Biden will be in an excellent position to win a second term. If in addition the Ukrainians win their war against Russian aggression, Biden will have foreign policy bragging points as well. No amount of Republican investigating will come close to offsetting those wins.

No predictions

But we should all understand that there is no predicting the outcome of US elections. 2024 will be as unpredictable as 2016 and 2020. That’s a feature, not a glitch. But two years of extremist wackos running the House of Representatives are not going to help a Republican candidate beat an incumbent president with a good economy and a victory for democracy in Ukraine.