Day: April 2, 2023
Stevenson’s army, April 2
– Is Bulgaria next to tilt toward Russia?
– What does Hungary want from Sweden?
– How much is enough for defense? Prof. Cancian analyzes.
– Why do the Saudis want nuclear power?
-Why does China want a port in Croatia?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
An agreement without agreement
I did this interview last Tuesday for Arbnore Zhushi of Kosovo daily Bota Sot:
Q: Mr. Serwer, on March 18, Kosovo and Serbia agreed at the Ohrid meeting on the implementation plan of what is known as the Agreement towards the normalization of relations between them. How do you see this Agreement?
A: The March 18 agreement is devoid of substance and focuses on procedure, without however setting deadlines. It is a weak agreement, if it is any agreement at all.
Vucic has been clear on one point
Q: How did you see the opposition of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to sign the Ohrid “agreement” on paper, do you think that this will be a stable and applicable agreement for both parties?
A: No. Vucic has made it clear he will not implement parts of the February agreement, which is the main one.
Kurti hasn’t been clear yet on the Association
Q: The parties agreed on one of the most important points – the immediate launch of the creation of a self-management mechanism for the Serbian community in Kosovo. How will this mechanism be implemented, since Serbia wants an Association with executive powers, while for Kosovo this constitutes a constitutional violation?
A: The agreement provides for immediate launch of negotiations on the self-management mechanism. I see no possibility of an “association” with executive powers. Kosovo municipalities already have a good deal of self-management authority. I’d be interested to know what more Serbia is asking for, provided it complies with the Kosovo constitution, and whether Belgrade is prepared to offer reciprocal arrangements to Albanian communities in southern Serbia.
Q: How do you evaluate the whole role of Prime Minister Albin Kurti, in this agreement, what should Kurti have (not) done that he has not done, in your opinion?
A: I’m not going to play professor to the prime minister, but I think the time is coming when a proposal on “self-management” is in order. Kurti says it won’t be territorial or monoethnic. I am interested in learning what he has in mind.
The EU will go easy on Serbia
Q: How do you think it will affect the integration processes and visa liberalization for Kosovo, if the latter does not implement the point related to the self-management of the Serbian community in Kosovo?
A: That is up to the EU, which hasn’t been generous with Kosovo.
Q: Although European diplomats confirmed that the parties are obliged to fully implement every article of the Agreement, Vucic warned that he will not implement the part of the agreement related to Kosovo’s membership in the UN. Do you believe that there will be sanctions against Serbia for the “red lines,” or will the “caress” from the EU continue?
A: No. Appeasement will continue. There seems to be no limit.
The Church needs a settlement
Q: How do you see the request for officializing the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo from Article 7 of the European plan? Do you think this represents a danger for Kosovo?
A: No. I think the Church’s status is an important issue that needs to be resolved, including the property of the monastery at Decan/Decani.
De facto recognition is better than nothing
Q: Although it does not include mutual recognition, the Franco-German plan was described as very beneficial for both sides, especially for Kosovo. In your opinion, is this plan expected to lead to mutual recognition and when?
A: My view is that Serbia has already de facto recognized Kosovo, but not de jure. I can’t predict when it will cross that barrier. Likely only after Vucic is gone.
RSS - Posts
