Day: May 18, 2023
What the State Department forgot to say
This morning’s Chollet and Escobar pas de deux at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee demonstrated that the Senators who attended really know something about the Balkans. The questioning was pertinent and at times incisive. The responses were less so.
Of course the State Department Counselor and the Deputy Assistant Secretary with responsibility for the Balkans know what to say. They are for EU membership, democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity. They are against Russian malfeasance, Chinese financing, corruption, and ethnonationalism.
It’s what they don’t say
It’s what they don’t say that really counts, starting from the premise: “Europe whole and free.” This 90s US foreign policy slogan is inapplicable today and for the forseeable future. Europe is not going to be whole and free any time soon. We’ll have to accept a line somewhere. That’s what the war in Ukraine is about: will Kyiv be on the Western side of the line, or will all or part of Ukraine be forced into a subserviant relationship with Russia?
While the Americans are trying to attract it with all the carrots they can think of, Belgrade has chosen definitively in recent years to move towards Moscow and Beijing. There is no sign of anything but rhetorical interest in EU membership. Progress in the EU accession process has ground to a halt. The political system in Serbia has veered towards autocracy. President Vucic and his minions, who include virtually the entire media landscape in Serbia, mouth ambitions to retake Kosovo (or part of it) and use the worst ethnic slurs available against Albanians. There really is nothing comparable happening in Kosovo.
As for the Belgrade/Pristina dialogue, Escobar claimed the February and March agreements on normalization are legally binding and being implemented, but when confronted with examples of President Vucic’s refusal to implement specific provisions he and Chollet retreated to bothsiderism. That was also their response on corruption in Belgrade as well. “We find it everywhere in the Balkans.” In recent memory, I can’t name a US official who has referred explicitly to the many and gross manifestations of organized crime and corruption in Serbia.
Chollet and Escobar were enthusiastic about the proposed Association of Serb Majority Municipalities (ASMM), claiming it would enable Serbs to integrate more into Kosovo and would have to be consistent with the Kosovo constitution. They ignored the Serb proposal for the ASMM, which is unequivocally intended to create an autonomous Serb entity, like Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, inside Kosovo, complete with executive powers. They were also enthusiastic for Serbia’s Open Balkans initiative, provided that it treats all the countries participating equally. They forgot to mention that Kosovo has not even been invited to Open Balkans because Belgrade doesn’t want to address it properly in the invitation.
Poor Bosnia
Bosnia suffered the worst from State Department amnesia. Yes, the officials said, the Bosnia constitution would need changes, in accordance with decisions by the EU and the Venice Commission. They forgot to mention that one of those decisions, by the European Court of Human Rights, was taken 14 years ago. The US gave up long ago on pressing for its implementation.
They liked the decisions of the HiRep that enabled formation of the government in the Bosnian Federation, but forgot to mention that one of them changed the way votes were counted after they were cast. The other was taken to iron out problems the first had created. The net result was to ensure that two ethnonationalist parties could rule in the Federation. Only one ethnonationalist party was dissastified with these decisions, Escobar claimed. He forgot to mention that that party and other dissenters just might represent more than a majority of the voters. Never mind the disgraceful act of changing the way votes are counted after they are cast.
The rest
I trust Macedonians won’t be too pleased to hear from Escobar that in order to join the EU they will have to change their constitution to mention their Bulgarian minority, which he failed to say numbers a few thousand (certainly less than 1% of the population). Nor will the Albanians in Serbia be pleased to hear that their numbers–almost certainly equal to or greater than the number of Serbs in northern Kosovo (and far more than the Bulgarians in Macedonia)–don’t merit mention of an Association of Albanian Majority Municipalities inside Serbia. Never mind Albanian seats in the Serbian parliament, to match the guaranteed Serb seats in the Kosovo parliament.
Escobar will be winging off to Podgorica for the Montenegrin presidential inauguration Saturday. No one bothered to mention that we owe the oderly and so far nonviolent change of power there to its current President, Milo Djukanovic, whom American and European diplomats have spent years deploring for alleged (but still unproven) corruption. The new President, Jakov Milatović, avows a pro-European stance but has more than warm relations with President Vucic in Belgrade. A lot will depend on June 11 parliamentary elections. I hope they are conducted as freely and fairly as those under Djukanovic.
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The Senate takes a bite at the Balkans
Here are the notes I took during today’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the Balkans. I’ll have more to say later today on what I think of what I heard:
Senator Menendez (D-NJ) knows what is going on. He said in his introduction to today’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing that a two-faced Belgrade is too close to Moscow. He added that the US is bringing too much pressure to bear on friends in Pristina and not enough on Belgrade. Senator Risch (R-ID) was not far behind, focusing (among other things) on regional energy and cybersecurity issues.
Europe whole and free
State Department Counselor Chollet treated the Balkans as a missing piece of the “Europe whole and free” puzzle the Administration seeks to solve. The February and March normalization “agreements” between Belgrade and Pristina he treated as a breakthrough. He acknowledged Kosovo as a good friend and Serbia as a problematic. He sought to reinforce support for Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, Montenegro’s progress on rule of law, and Macedonia and Albania’s movement towards EU membership.
State Deputy Assistant Secretary Gabriel Escobar claimed the recent normalization agreements are being implemented. He pledged to deter Milorad Dodik’s movement toward secession. He pushed on EU accession for Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia, including a constitutional change in Skopje recognizing the Bulgarian minority.
Ethnonationalism
Questioned about corruption in Serbia, Chollet claimed the US is dealing with it. Pressed on Vucic’s refusal to sign the normalization agreement or to implement it, he retreated to bothsidism. Escobar claimed the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities would have to be consistent with the Kosovo constitution and would provide advantages to Kosovo in its relations with its Serb population.
Menendez urged that the US engage with the EU nonrecognizers, eliciting suggestions from Chollet and Escobar that progress on normalization would help. On minority rights in Serbia, Escobar made the usual noises about being concerned for all but made no commitment to seek conditions for them equivalent to what the Serbs are seeking in Kosovo.
Risch asked about US relations with the different ethnic groups in Bosnia. Chollet underlined US support for Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and expessed dismay at talk about secession. He promised to impose consequences on those who are corrupt or undermine the Dayton accords. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) asked about the HiRep’s imposition of changed rules after the election. Escobar claimed those changes had allowed formation of the Federation government with objections from “one ethnonationalist” party.
China and Russia
Senator Ricketts (R-NE) asked about growing Chinese influence, especially in Serbia. Escobar bemoaned the easy availability of Chinese financing. He suggested the Committee and its members might be helpful by visiting and talking with people in the Balkans. He also asked about Montenegro and got a strong endorsement of newly elected President Milatovic, whose inauguration Escobar will attend.
Senator Shaheen (D-NH) asked about the EUFOR mandate for peacekeeping in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Chollet averred that the UN Security Council will act to renew it without too much difficulty. Escobar and Chollet pledged vigorous use of sanctions against corrupt individuals. They also thought repeating to Vucic and Kurti that they need to move forward will help.
Narcotrafficking and back to ASMM
Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) asked about Albanian narcotrafficking. Escobar said it is a difficult challenge. He agreed that Open Balkans has potential to help and said the US supports initiatives that are open to all of the Balkan states on an equal basis. Chollet referred to the problem of trucks spending “80% of their time” at borders.
Senator Chris Murphy (D-VA) shared Menendez’s worries about Serbia not fulfilling commitments but added that Kosovo has not been much better. The ASMM he thought is not entirely new. It could help Kosovo integrate its Serb population and be less reliant on Belgrade. Chollet said the US will not support anything like a Republika Srpska. Murphy noted we are asking North Macedonia to change its constitution but not Kosovo.
Ethnonationalism redux
Senator Van Hollen (D-MD) asked about Bosnia’s constitution. Escobar thinks the EU is pushing for a more civic Bosnia and some constitutional change will be needed. He thought the formation of the Federation and state governments would lead in that direction but the path would be a rocky one.
Menendez worried about reinforcement of ethnonationalism in Bosnia by the HiRep’s decisions. Escobar suggested that Venice Commission and EU recommendations are up for discussion. But he also thought corruption was part of the problem.
Back to Russia, China, and Open Balkans
Menendez also worried about Serbia’s lack of interest in the EU and what the US can do to stop its drift towards Russia and China. Chollet claimed that is what the US has been doing, but energy, Kosovo, and corruption present obstacles. Serbia has not aligned on sanctions but has been helpful on humanitarian and other issues, including UN resolutions.
Menendez finally worried about Open Balkans and sanctions evasion in Serbia. Escobar claimed sanctions evasion is not a problem in the region and that Open Balkans is complementary to other pro-Europe initiatives. It must be open to all as full members or the US won’t support it.
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