The Senate takes a bite at the Balkans

Here are the notes I took during today’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the Balkans. I’ll have more to say later today on what I think of what I heard:

Senator Menendez (D-NJ) knows what is going on. He said in his introduction to today’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing that a two-faced Belgrade is too close to Moscow. He added that the US is bringing too much pressure to bear on friends in Pristina and not enough on Belgrade. Senator Risch (R-ID) was not far behind, focusing (among other things) on regional energy and cybersecurity issues.

Europe whole and free

State Department Counselor Chollet treated the Balkans as a missing piece of the “Europe whole and free” puzzle the Administration seeks to solve. The February and March normalization “agreements” between Belgrade and Pristina he treated as a breakthrough. He acknowledged Kosovo as a good friend and Serbia as a problematic. He sought to reinforce support for Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, Montenegro’s progress on rule of law, and Macedonia and Albania’s movement towards EU membership.

State Deputy Assistant Secretary Gabriel Escobar claimed the recent normalization agreements are being implemented. He pledged to deter Milorad Dodik’s movement toward secession. He pushed on EU accession for Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia, including a constitutional change in Skopje recognizing the Bulgarian minority.

Ethnonationalism

Questioned about corruption in Serbia, Chollet claimed the US is dealing with it. Pressed on Vucic’s refusal to sign the normalization agreement or to implement it, he retreated to bothsidism. Escobar claimed the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities would have to be consistent with the Kosovo constitution and would provide advantages to Kosovo in its relations with its Serb population.

Menendez urged that the US engage with the EU nonrecognizers, eliciting suggestions from Chollet and Escobar that progress on normalization would help. On minority rights in Serbia, Escobar made the usual noises about being concerned for all but made no commitment to seek conditions for them equivalent to what the Serbs are seeking in Kosovo.

Risch asked about US relations with the different ethnic groups in Bosnia. Chollet underlined US support for Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and expessed dismay at talk about secession. He promised to impose consequences on those who are corrupt or undermine the Dayton accords. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) asked about the HiRep’s imposition of changed rules after the election. Escobar claimed those changes had allowed formation of the Federation government with objections from “one ethnonationalist” party.

China and Russia

Senator Ricketts (R-NE) asked about growing Chinese influence, especially in Serbia. Escobar bemoaned the easy availability of Chinese financing. He suggested the Committee and its members might be helpful by visiting and talking with people in the Balkans. He also asked about Montenegro and got a strong endorsement of newly elected President Milatovic, whose inauguration Escobar will attend.

Senator Shaheen (D-NH) asked about the EUFOR mandate for peacekeeping in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Chollet averred that the UN Security Council will act to renew it without too much difficulty. Escobar and Chollet pledged vigorous use of sanctions against corrupt individuals. They also thought repeating to Vucic and Kurti that they need to move forward will help.

Narcotrafficking and back to ASMM

Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) asked about Albanian narcotrafficking. Escobar said it is a difficult challenge. He agreed that Open Balkans has potential to help and said the US supports initiatives that are open to all of the Balkan states on an equal basis. Chollet referred to the problem of trucks spending “80% of their time” at borders.

Senator Chris Murphy (D-VA) shared Menendez’s worries about Serbia not fulfilling commitments but added that Kosovo has not been much better. The ASMM he thought is not entirely new. It could help Kosovo integrate its Serb population and be less reliant on Belgrade. Chollet said the US will not support anything like a Republika Srpska. Murphy noted we are asking North Macedonia to change its constitution but not Kosovo.

Ethnonationalism redux

Senator Van Hollen (D-MD) asked about Bosnia’s constitution. Escobar thinks the EU is pushing for a more civic Bosnia and some constitutional change will be needed. He thought the formation of the Federation and state governments would lead in that direction but the path would be a rocky one.

Menendez worried about reinforcement of ethnonationalism in Bosnia by the HiRep’s decisions. Escobar suggested that Venice Commission and EU recommendations are up for discussion. But he also thought corruption was part of the problem.

Back to Russia, China, and Open Balkans

Menendez also worried about Serbia’s lack of interest in the EU and what the US can do to stop its drift towards Russia and China. Chollet claimed that is what the US has been doing, but energy, Kosovo, and corruption present obstacles. Serbia has not aligned on sanctions but has been helpful on humanitarian and other issues, including UN resolutions.

Menendez finally worried about Open Balkans and sanctions evasion in Serbia. Escobar claimed sanctions evasion is not a problem in the region and that Open Balkans is complementary to other pro-Europe initiatives. It must be open to all as full members or the US won’t support it.