So it fizzled. When will the next time come?
Yesterday’s insurrection and impending coup is today’s fizzle. Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to turn the Wagner troops around while he expatriates himself to Belarus. Ostensibly he and Putin reached an agreement, with Belarus’ President Lukashenko mediating, to avoid bloodshed. The Wagnerites get amnesty. Putin gets to stay in the Kremlin.
Question marks
I suppose it could be that simple. After all, if you are a Russian patriot, civil war is not appetizing. But there are still lots of question marks. Why did Prigozhin light the fuse? Why did he decide to abandon the effort? Did he fail to get support he thought would be forthcoming from others? Why did Russian forces not attack the Wagner column? What did Putin agree to do in exchange for the standdown?
Then there are the longer-term questions. Can Prigozhin really be safe in Minsk? Will this incident weaken Putin’s hold on power? If you are a Wagner fighter do you really believe there will be no retaliation? Are you willing to stick with an enterprise that apparently lost the contest? How will this incident affect the extensive Wagner operations in Africa and Syria? How do you feel if you are a Russian soldier on the front lines in Ukraine? What about ordinary Russian citizens? Does Chinese President Xi think Putin is a reliable partner?
Cracks are showing
Prigozhin for weeks has been complaining loudly about Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov. Prigozhin accuses them of incompetence, failure to supply Wagner’s forces, and even an attack on his men. Neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov has been seen for a few days. Putin appeared to come down hard on their side in the pissing match with Prigozhin, but it is also possible he has agreed to sack them, but we’ll have to wait and see.
In any event, the Wagner fizzle suggests Putin’s hold on power is not quite as tight as many imagine. Prigozhin can’t be the only discontent almost a year and a half into a war that has gained Russia little and cost a lot. The crackdown that is sure to follow the Wagner non-coup could widen the fissures in the ruling elite. But there is still little sign of popular willingness to challenge the Kremlin.
Keep the popcorn for next time
Some will worry that Putin falling could bring chaos to a nuclear-weapons state. Or put those weapons into the hands of someone like Prigozhin. Those are legimate concerns, but there is little the West can do about them. The US, UK, and Europe are bystanders who can do little more than keep up their support for Ukraine and hope that somehow Moscow decides to cut its losses and leave. In the meanwhile, it was a good show while it lasted. If you haven’t finished your popcorn, hold on to it. Next time might not be far off.
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