Lessons from the Wagnerian tragedy
While the odds of my saying anything new are minimal, it is difficult not to comment on the death yesterday of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner comrades. I think it is fair to assume it was murder. A plane accident would be just too convenient. And we’ll never know for sure, so why not assume the obvious?
What we don’t know and what the incident tells us
It is difficult to fathom why Prigozhin thought he could fly around Russia safely. Just a few days ago he put out a video purporting to show him in Africa. Might he have imagined that Putin would be fooled? Might he have believed that his good friend Vladimir would allow him to continue to live after attempting a coup? Had he tried to blackmail Putin into leaving him alone, by promising to have published incriminating material if he were to die? No one knows.
What we do know is that this incident confirms, once again, that Putin is a garden variety homicidal dictator. No one should have doubted that–the denefestrations and poisonings have been confirming it for decades. But it has political implications, both in Russia and in the United States.
Russians need to get brave
The implication in Russia is that Putin will never leave office voluntarily. He knows that peaceful retirement is not an option. He’ll try to stay in power as long as he can.
To get rid of him, Russians will need to be courageous. There is little sign of such courage so far, but it might be brewing beneath the surface. Whoever arranged for Prigozhin’s plane to come down could do the same for Putin’s. That will make him extra cautious and repressive. He has already tightened the screws on dissent, but will likely do more. Even much more.
Americans need to get smarter
Following Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson, there is a part of the Republican Party, and a fringe on the left, that has been inclined to accommodation with Putin. They would like less aid for Ukraine and more, echoing a Moscow troll line, for Hawaii, though of course the Republicans would never actually push aid in Hawaii’s direction.
Trump and Carlson may continue to shill for Putin. They are not just dumb but craven. But the filo-Russian faction on both left and right should now be as dead as Prigozhin.
There is no longer any alternative, if ever there was, for the West in Ukraine. Europe and the US need to give Ukraine everything it needs to defeat Russia and expel its forces from all Ukrainian territory. Putin’s defeat may not guarantee his fall, but if he manages to hold on to territory in Ukraine it will make his fall much less likely. His succesor may be worse for Russians, but defeat in Ukraine will make him and Russia weaker. That is what Americans need to aim for.
Accountability would be nice
I guffawed at the first news of Prigozhin’s accident. But it is not a laughing matter, even if he was a clownish war criminal. Dictators worldwide will be watching to see the consequences. Let’s hope Russians can somehow give Putin his just desserts.
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Perhaps the tragedy has not reached its climax. As in the Rings, perhaps a flight of Valkyries will swoop down and engulf Putin and his enablers such as Trump.
Prigoyzin was not stupid. He has faked his death before. He often used disguises and changed plans at the last moment. His situation was more dire than ever; hence, would he not have taken even more precautions? Forensics can provide some certainty, but Putin’s FSB might bury the truth.
One can hope that the Kremlin suffers its own sort of Wagnerian tragedy.