No need for panic about the 2024 election

It is starting to look as if Donald Trump has the Repubican nomination for President in the bag. This has struck panic into the hearts of many Americans and non-Americans, who correctly understand that the outcome of US elections is unpredictable. But they are wrong to panic this time around.

The Republicans

Trump has capture the Republican Party. Both the institution and its registered adherents support him. Two-thirds of Republicans want him as their candidate. Seventy-three per cent say they will vote for him.

He is opposed by more or less 10 competitors, none of whom come close to challenging him among the rank and file. Even if the Republican opposition to Trump were to coalesce around a single competitor willing to openly oppose him, the odds would be long. The Republican primaries will be a beauty contest with little import, though they may influence the choice of the party’s vice-presidential candidate.

Trump’s four indictments in recent weeks have done little to undermine his dominance among Republicans. He has used them to claim that the system is unfair and to portray himself as a victim, not a perpetrator.

That said, no Republican can win the popular vote in a presidential election with only 73% of registered Republicans. That’s one strike against Trump.

Independents

The indictments have not shaken Republican support for Trump, but most independents agree with Democrats that he should stand trial before the election and that he is guilty of the charges. They also agree that the Justice Department is fair and that if convicted Trump should go to prison.

It is hard to imagine how any true independents would shift their votes from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024. What has Trump done in the past three years to move votes in his direction? Americans are still dissatisfied with Biden and especially his handling of the economy. But inflation is down sharply (from 9% or so a year ago to 3% now) while employment has held up and wages are beating inflation. It may take some time for this news to change minds, but the economic facts are good, not bad.

Democrats

Biden’s support among Democrats is solidifying. Rumors of primary challenges are fading. Trump as the Republican nominee will guarantee that 90% or more of Democrats will vote for Biden. While his overall approval ratings have continued to lag, his rating on the economy has improved. He also gets relatively good marks on Ukraine and race relations, issues that many Democrats care about.

In some key states, Democrats are doing well. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are three states that were crucial in 2016 to Trump and in 2020 to Biden. They will likely be close again in 2024. But, unlike Texas and Florida, they are not out of reach for Biden. Younger voters there and elsewhere give the Democrats a decided advantage. This is especially true among young women, most of whom are displeased with Republican-supported restrictions on abortion.

The spoilers: economy, third parties, voter suppression, the electoral college

Despite this overall favorable prognosis for Biden, three spoilers need to be kept in mind.

The economy is always an important factor in American elections. While inflation is still an issue, the Federal Reserve has so far seemed to manage the situation well. It is easy to imagine that inflation by November 2024 will be at the target of 2% without a severe recession. But that is not guaranteed. If the economy is in recession next spring or summer, Biden’s support could weaken.

A third party candidacy could spoil the election for the Democrats. There are already several threats of such efforts, at least one funded mainly by Republican donors to weaken Biden.

Republican-controlled state legislatures have tried hard to suppress the votes of Democrats. Limiting mail-in ballots, drop boxes, early voting, and poll hours as well as heightening voter identity requirements are all thought to limit Democratic turnout. But past efforts of this sort appear to have stimulated defiance rather than abstention. Let’s hope that continues.

The Electoral College is the real joker in this pack. It elects the President based on results in the individual states, using a formula that generally favors smaller population states (which favor Republicans). Each state gets a number of Electoral Votes equivalent to its number of members of Congress. That is always two in the Senate (no matter how small the state) plus the number of Representatives in the House. Gerrymandering of districts in many states has inflated the number of Republicans in the House.

Bottom line

American elections are not predictable. But there is no reason for panic about 2024. Hillary Clinton in 2020 won the popular vote by 2.8 million. Biden won by more than 6 million. It is hard to imagine Trump doing much better than that. The key question will be the geographic distribution of Republican voters and third party supporters. That could tilt the Electoral College away from Biden. But you won’t know at the earliest until the day after. So stop panicking and start hoping Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania do the right thing.