Imbalance is not good for negotiations

Naile Ejupe of Pristina daily Bota sot asked questions last Saturday. I answered:

Bota sot: On Thursday, the meeting between the prime minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, and the Serbian president, Aleksandër Vucic, was held, the meeting had no result and there is disagreement between what kind of internationals and what Kosovo accepts, what is your comment about the meeting?

A: The internationals are insisting on a single priority: the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. That offers nothing to Pristina. It is not surprising that this dialogue is not going anywhere.

The Association has become an absolute priority for Brussels, Washington, and Belgrade

Bota sot: Is Serbia conditioning the dialogue through the association and why is such a thing allowed

A: I’m not sure it is only Serbia making the Association an absolute condition. Washington and Brussels seem to be doing it as well.

Bota sot: How should Kosovo act when the pressures for the establishment of the Association have already started to increase?

A: I’ll leave up to Kosovo’s authorities how they want to react. But I hope they do so in a way that seeks to improve relations with Washington and Brussels. Kosovo needs its friends.

The US and EU need to guarantee

Bota sot: We are witnesses that Serbia has not respected the agreements with Kosovo, who should guarantee that Serbia takes any steps after Kosovo accepts the association?

A: The EU and US need to be the guarantors. I see no sign they are serious about taking on that responsibility. That is part of the problem.

Bota sot: The president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, says that if he had said what Kurti declared “he would have been hanged in Berlin.” Here he refers to Prime Minister Kurti’s statement after the September 14 meeting, what Vučić is trying to do and how long will it continue to be tolerated?

A: You’ll have to ask the European and American diplomats how long they will tolerate it. I don’t see anything wrong with the refusal to accept the Association as a precondition, without any quid pro quo. Clearly the Association presents a threat to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity so long as Serbia has not recognized Kosovo. I advised Lajcak years ago that if the Association is necessary it can only come at the end of the process, along with recognition, not at the beginning.

Kosovo was better prepared than Serbia

Bota sot: Let’s stick to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his statement after the September 14 meeting, which he described as a difficult meeting, while the American ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, then added that Serbia had “done its homework” and that “it was well prepared,” what difficulties can Vučić be talking about and what tasks has Serbia performed?

A: I saw no Serbian preparation for any serious concession to Kosovo. Belgrade’s preparation did however guarantee support for its perspective on the Association by Brussels and Washington. I am not a cheerleader for that accomplishment. That is what Pristina has to counter. I thought the Kosovo schedule for the talks a serious step in the right direction. I do not understand why it was not regarded as such.

Bota sot: Serbia is not stopping the inciting and threatening statements, a month ago the Serbian Minister of Defense said that Montenegro and North Macedonia offended Serbia by recognizing Kosovo’s independence, while Vučić on Friday (September 15) asked the Serbs of Montenegro demand the same rights as the Albanians in North Macedonia, is Serbia trying to interfere in the internal affairs of the countries of the region and thus destabilize the Balkans?

Serbia’s aim

A: Yes. Serbia’s aim is the Serbian world, which means at least de facto Belgrade control over the Serbs who live in neighboring countries. Serbia should not be asking for anything from its neighbors that it is not ready to offer to its neighbors.

Bota sot: While Serbia makes threatening statements, Kosovo is already under the punitive measures of the European Union due to the tense situation created in the north of the country after the elections and the placement of Albanian mayors in the municipalities, these measures are called unfair by Kosovo, while after the meeting on September 14 , the EU does not exclude other punitive measures, what is your comment about this?

A: Clearly Pristina needs to improved its relations with Brussels and Washington.

What endangers Kosovo

Bota sot: The representative of the EU for dialogue, Miroslav Lajçak, has given an ultimatum that the Kosovo-Serbia agreement be implemented by the end of the year, or there may be conflicts, how endangered is Kosovo and what conflicts could he be talking about?

A: You need to ask Miroslav what he is talking about. For me, the risk arises from any action, including a “false flag,” against Serbs in Kosovo that gives Belgrade an opportunity to claim it needs to move its army to the Ibar to protect Serbs. Protection of Serbs and other minorities is vital to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

There is of course also a risk of rioting by Serbs in the north against the non-Serb mayors or whatever police presence remains. But that went entirely unpunished last time it happened. I have no reason to believe it would be punished if it happened again. Washington’s tolerance for Serbian malfeasance appears unlimited.

Bota sot: Can visas for Kosovo citizens be suspended if the agreement is not implemented and if the association is not formed and how fair is this?

A: It would be completely unfair to suspend visas for Kosovo citizens. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

Better balance is needed

Bota sot: Finally, what after the fruitless talks in Brussels?

I don’t know. But if I were one of the mediators I would be looking for a balanced package at every step, not one that requires one side to move while the other does nothing.