The politics of Hamas’ flood

I don’t often comment on Israel and Palestine. There are many others, including Shibley, who know more about it but have not been able to find solutions. I join most of them in denouncing the heinous Hamas attack, clearly focused in part on civilians, and any retaliatory abuses by the Israelis against Palestinians. But looking beyond current events it is hard not to wonder how current events will work out politically inside Israel, in the Occupied Territories (West Bank and Gaza), in the region, and in the United States.

Inside Israel

In my ultra-rational world, those responsible for Israel’s obvious intelligence and military failures would be held responsible. Either the current government would fall. Or Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an effort to save himself, would accept Yair Lapid’s offer to bring the opposition into a national unity government. That would presumably eject the ultranationalist like Ben Gvir, the current national security miniister, and finance minister Smotrich.

The national unity government would still seek to devastate Hamas in Gaza. But it could also end Netanyahu’s attack on Israel’s judiciary and democracy. And it could end the settler violence and seek an accommodation with the Palestinian Authority (PA) that would give it more effective governing authority over a larger part of the West Bank.

But that isn’t likely. Already some Israelis are blaming Iran. Some are also urging further crackdowns on the Palestinians, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank. If the extremists survive, they will get worse in the future. Their ultimate aim is to rid the West Bank of Palestinians and to subjugate Gaza. Hamas will use its civilian and military hostages as levers against Israel. That will further strengthen the extremists.

Jerusalem as the focus

Extremist Israelis have for years been challenging the status quo on the Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif. Jews are not allowed to pray by their own traditional law. The Israelis have also conducted police operations even inside the Dome of the Rock mosque. This is in addition to extension of Jewish presence in East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want as the capital of their future state, and a big upswing in settler violence agaianst Palestinians in the West Bank.

Hamas is clever. Not only did it invent new ways to assault Israel. It also keyed that assault to Jerusalem, naming its offensive “Al Aqsa Flood” (Al Aqsa refers both to one of the mosques on the Haram al Sharif/Temple Mount as well as to the compound as a awhole). Framing its assault as a response to Israeli misbehavior in Jerusalem enables Hamas to appeal not only to Palestinians in Gaza but also to Palestinians in the West Bank and beyond, as well as the Muslim world more generally. All Muslims, like Jews and Christians, pray in the direction of Al Quds (“the Holiness”), Jerusalem.

In the Occupied Territories

By posing as the defender of Jerusalem, Hamas makes the failures of the secular PA in the West Bank strikingly evident. Palestinians have long been dissatisfied with its unaccountable and poor governance as well as its willingness to cooperate with the Israeli security forces. If current events lead to more settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, a rebellion there that could collapse the PA.

In Gaza, Palestinians are unlikely to rebel no matter how much damage the Israelis do. I won’t say they are used to it. But they haven’t rebelled in the past in the aftermath of several Hamas defeats. They aren’t likely to rebel after a war that will be regarded as a Hamas success.

In the region

The obvious impact in the region is to make Saudi/Israeli mutual recognition, unlikely anyway, more unlikely. The Saudis won’t want to buck public sentiment, which is pro-Palestinian. Nor will they want to reward Israel in the aftermath of the destruction it will wreck in Gaza. The Arab countries that have already recognized Israel (UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan) will speak up about abuses against Palestinians and destruction in Gaza. But I would expect them to try to maintain their relations with Israel.

Both the Israelis and Americans are saying Iran did not play a direct role in the Hamas attack. It will nevertheless be strengthened. It has supplied Hamas for decades. Tehran sponsors Hizbollah in Lebanon and its own forces as well as proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. Thus Iran now all but surrounds Israel and can hope to discomfort the Israelis at will.

In America

The Iran angle will be important in the U.S. Republicans have already blamed President Biden’s agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets in South Korea, even though they have not yet been drawn down. No doubt there will be assertions that the Administration hasn’t done enough to support Israel, though the facts belie that claim. Biden has been as stalwart as any of his predessors in supporting Israeli security and has mobilized U.S. forces in the region.

Nevertheless, those in power get blamed when bad things happen. Trump will no doubt send a few unfounded blasts at Biden. It would be truly tragic if Hamas helps Trump to return to power. But that, too, is possible.