Month: October 2023
Stevenson’s army, October 21
– Israeli defense minister has a 3 point plan for Gaza.
– Biden administration has cautioned Israel on its plans.
– WH explains its new budget request. Here’s the letter.
– Here’s excerpt from new book on Lumumba killing.
– SAIS grad Rafael Kruchin explains Brazil reaction to Hamas.
And via Adam Tooze, look at this 1932 picture of Manhattan:
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Future trouble is Gaza’s fate
The Israelis continue to pound Gaza, two weeks after the heinous terrorist attack Hamas mounted against Israel. We don’t know how much the bombardment has hurt Hamas. Its militants presumably hide underground and among the civilian population. But it has certainly harmed ordinary Palestinians. They are suffering horribly as well from the embargo on food, water, and fuel going into Gaza.
The better option right now
Well-meaning people are calling for a ceasefire. But Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) would use a ceasefire to re-organize and re-arm. That would lengthen the conflict and prolong the agony of Gazan civilians. A ceasefire would also require international monitors. It is hard to imagine where those would come from.
A bombing pause would be a better option right now. The bombing hinders all aspects of civilian life in Gaza and will block delivery of humanitarian aid. It started to flow through the Rafah Crossing from Egypt this morning. Observers aren’t needed to monitor a bombing pause, which should apply to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad as well as Israel. Remote observation would suffice. Hamas and PIJ could try to use a bombing pause to re-arm, but Israel would be able to conduct raids to prevent that from happening.
The question of war aims
The Defense Minister told a Knesset committee yesterday that Israel’s war aims are
- destruction of Hamas’ military infrastructure;
- destruction of pockets of resistance;
- removal of Israel’s responsibility for life in Gaza and establishment of a new security reality for Israelis.
These are far more reasonable aims than I’ve seen quoted elsewhere. It makes no sense to destroy Hamas’ civilian governing infrastructure. That will be needed even during, and also after, the war to distribute humanitarian aid and health services as well as re-start education and other social services.
The ground invasion makes no sense
But the minister also appeared to promise a ground invasion: “Whoever sees Gaza from afar now, will see it from the inside.”
This makes no sense. Re-occupation of Gaza would be “fiendishly difficult,” to quote David Petraeus. The Israeli army knows that well. It has done it before. Now would be far more difficult, as Hamas is a formidable foe and well-entrenched. Israel’s cadres are largely reservists, not the professional special operations guys needed to ferret out Hamas. They will suffer many fewer casualties supporting the professionals from just outside Gaza rather than inside.
The new security reality
It is unclear what the minister meant by a new security reality. If it means higher walls and a tighter embargo, that is a formula for further radicalization in Gaza. Iran would no doubt like that and re-arm the radicals as best it could.
Israel will be tempted to try to re-implant the Palestinian Authority security forces in Gaza. But the PA has lost a lot of credibility with Palestinians. Its performance in the West Bank does not bode well. Hamas remnants would of course conduct guerilla operations against any PA presence.
I can imagine a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza. But which countries would be prepared to lend it personnel? It would require tens of thousands of Arabic speakers. Egypt would decline, as it doesn’t take on more responsibility for Gaza. The Gulf would be uninterested. The North Africans likewise. Conditions at home would prevent Sudan, Yemen, Syria, or Iraq from lending a hand. Jordan would be skittish.
A wicked problem
Gaza poses wicked problems for which we don’t appear to have answers. Any attempt to solve one creates many others. Israelis are understandably less inclined to compromise than before the October 7 Hamas attack, even as Arabs understandably move towards more sympathy with Palestinians. That could mean trouble for a long time into the future.
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Stevenson’s army, October 19
This from Dahlia Scheindlin and Yezid Sayigh is well worth listening to, even if 4 days old.
– Border crossing still closed.
– US denies Israeli reports that Biden promised to join fight against Hezbollah.
– But US may be pressuring Israel on ground war.
– US forces already facing drone attacks
– WaPo says Hamas may have surprise weapons.
– FT says Israel may follow lessons learned from earlier Gaza fighting
-Disputes over Gaza hospital deaths
– FP on Israel’s intelligence failure
– Possible outcomes of House speaker drama
– Biden chooses Kurt Campbell as Deputy SecState
– HuffPost warns of “mutiny” and dissent cable at State
– US & EU can’t resolve steel tariff fight
-I used to say the Ag committees, like the appropriators and armed services panels, could overcome politics to get bills done. Not this year, apparently.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stay out, open up, resign
Israel doesn’t have good options for dealing with Gaza, but some are worse than others. A ground invasion is among the worst. The Israelis are hesitating for good reasons. I trust President Biden urged them to desist. I hope he is also insisting on a real and substantial solution to the humanitarian crisis, over and above the modest shipments agreed so far.
Stay out
The Israeli army is poised with about 300,000 troops on the boundaries of Gaza. But its leadership knows better than anyone else how perilous and counterproductive a ground assault is likely to be. Everything will be booby-trapped, resistance will be fierce, and many Hamas fighters and leaders will have fled with half the civilian population to the south. Besides, success in annihilating Hamas will saddle Israel with the unenviable task of deciding who will govern the day after, or re-imposing its on-the-ground occupation.
The Israelis may hope to establish a base inside Gaza from which it can raid the rest of the territory, rather than reoccupying it. But it is not clear why that is better than raids from outside. Gaza is small (25 miles long and 6 miles wide). With complete command in the air, the few extra miles don’t really matter. Hamas has the home advantage. Why isn’t it better to leave Hamas to stew in the ruins and strike them whenever the opportunity arises?
Open up
In the 12 days since the Hamas atrocities inside Israel, Gaza has been almost completely isolated. The Israelis I understand have allowed in some water, but no electricity, fuel, food, or medical supplies. They have conditioned humanitarian aid on release of the dozens of hostages that Hamas captured in Israel and dragged back to Gaza.
That as I see it is a war crime, as it targets civilians. Or, if Israel wants to claim that it is targeting Hamas and that the civilians are just collateral damage, the embargo of humanitarian aid is disproportionate to the military objective and therefore still a war crime. It is also likely counterproductive. Populations subject to cruel and unusual punishment aren’t going to wake up and throw off their oppressors. They are far more likely to make common cause with them.
Israel needs to move quickly and decisively to relieve the general population, even as it attacks Hamas. The only real alternative is to chase the population into Egypt, but Cairo is alert to that possibility and is not allowing people out through the Rafah crossing. Even once it is open to some Americans and others, permits will be hard to get. The Egyptian Foreign Minister was on BBC two days ago offering to send Gaza’s civilian population to the UK if London insists on letting it out.
Resign
Judicial accountability for the conduct of this Gaza war lies in the future. But there is no doubt about the political responsibility for the security lapses and military abuses that occasioned it. Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Security Minister Ben Gvir should be resigning now. They failed in their obligation to protect Israelis. So too should Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ senior political leader, and Yahya Sinwar, its Gaza leader, who share command responsibility for the truly heinous attacks on Israeli civilians. They have also failed in their obligation to protect Gazans.
The Gaza health authorities claim an Israeli missile was responsible for the hit on a hospital in Gaza, killing more than 500 people. The Israelis and Americans say an errant Palestinian Islamic Jihad missile hit the hospital. Its leader–Ziyad al-Nakhalah–should also be resigning. PIJ participated fully in the October 7 attack on Israel.
Of course none of these resignations will be forthcoming soon. All these folks are determined to exact revenge and declare victory. One can only hope that the people of Israel and Gaza will hold them accountable at the first opportunity.
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Stevenson’s army, October 19
– NYT says intelligence analysis points to errant Palestinian missile in hospital attack.
– Israeli TV channel reports on SecState Blinken meeting with Israeli cabinet
– Mark Cancian assesses US ability to help arm Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan.
– Jordan failures lead to talk of McHenry
– Brookings assesses erosion of US democracy
This was yesterday’s edition:
– There’s no legal authority for US combat operations to help Israel. HFAC chairman McCaul says he’s drafting an AUMF. More from Defense News.
– US secretly sent ATACMS to Ukraine. Background on the process from Politico and from NYT.
– NYT notes that until now Netanyahu has been a reluctant warrior.
– Tom Warrick has lessons for postwar planning.
– In Atlantic, Andrew Exum warns of misconceptions about Gaza war.
– You can’t beat somebody with nobody. Now there’s an alternative to Jordan, speaker pro tem McHenry. Jordan angered the centrists, especially the appropriators.
-Eurasia Group has big survey of US views on foreign policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 16
– WSJ outlines Israel’s tough choices.
– WSJ says US has selected about 2000 troops for deployment to Israel.
– Audrey Kurth Cronin notes that hope isn’t a strategy, and neither is revenge.
– Suzanne Maloney says US can’t exit the Middle East
– State is looking for additional aid sources for Israel.
-NYT says US support for Ukraine may have peaked. I think that’s true.
– Pelosi has good advice for next speaker.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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