Month: October 2023
Appeasement is as appeasement does
It is difficult to write about the Balkans when something far more serious is happening in the Middle East, not to mention Ukraine. But Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina still merit some attention. The European Union and the US have de facto reversed their positions and now are favoring de facto ethnic partition of both entities.
Clearer in Kosovo
This is clearer in Kosovo. The EU is insisting that Kosovo reduce its overwhelmingly Albanian police presence in the north, which on September 24 responded professionally and effectively to a terrorist attack. The threat of a repeat performance is clear and present. The EU is explicitly ignoring the attempted insurrection on September 24:
This insistence on ignoring the September 24 terrorist insurrection is difficult to fathom. But it jibes with EU insistence on the immediate formation of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, which Belgrade explicitly proposes be a vehicle for separate governance of Serbs in Kosovo. Hungary and the five member states that have not recognized Kosovo have become the bottom line of Europe’s position on Kosovo: no recognition and ethnic partition.
Same story in Bosnia and Herzegovina
In Bosnia, the situation is almost as bad. The West is supporting governments at both the state and entity levels that are under the control of ethnic separatists. Serb nationlist Milorad Dodik and Croat nationalist Dragan Covic are busy plotting the takeover of the Central Electoral Commission as well as the Constitutional Court. While they generally oppose the authority of the High Represenative, they naturally supported his post-electoral decisions that favored ethnic nationalists.
Dodik and Covic of course oppose implementation of several European Court of Human Rights decisions that would reverse the ethnic nationalist stranglehold on governance in Bosnia. The EU is ignoring those decisions and proceeding as if they don’t exist. The US has done nothing for years to encourage their implementation.
No priority has consequences
Why are the US and EU supporting, or at least not opposing, efforts to ethnically segregate populations in Bosnia and Kosovo? In part, the explanation is lack of horsepower. The Balkans have fallen off the priority list in Washington. It is hard to get any attention for the region. Secretary Blinken is not interested in doing any heavy lifting on Balkan issues while war rages in Ukraine as well as Israel and Gaza.
In Brussels, the main responsible officials come from Spain, Slovakia, and Hungary. Madrid and Bratislava have not recognized Kosovo. Budapest has, but its current leadership is explicitly ethnic nationalist. Prime Minister Orban is besties with Dodik and Serbian President Vucic, who can rely on his support. The EU higher ups are leaving the Balkans to people who have their own interests.
Appeasement is the policy
But there is more to it than that. Key officials in both Washington and Brussels have deluded themselves that they can attract Serbia into the West. President Vucic, they allege, is only concerned with getting a good deal for Serbs in neighboring countries. He is not serious about partitioning Kosovo or Bosnia. Buttering him up is easier and will work better than the alternative, tough love.
Labeling their current approach “appeasement” offends my colleagues at the State Department. But the US has done nothing more than a few talking points in response to Vucic’s sponsorship of the September 24 terrorist insurrection. The EU has done likewise. They are hoping the incident will give them leverage on Vucic in private but all blow over in public.
Of course that is not possible for Kosovo Albanians or for supporters to liberal democracy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the former lack an international backer willing to press the case for serious sanctions against Vucic. The latter lack not only international backing but also political traction in their own country.
The West has abandoned its friends. It is supporting opponents of liberal democracy in both Kosovo and Bosnia. Appeasement is as appeasement does.
#Serbia’s 33 acquis chapters, level of preparedness for membership, as assessed by the European Commission since 2015. https://esiweb.org/publications/scoreboard-true-state-accession-what-commission-assessments-reveal…
That was tweeted in response to this, from the EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement:
Open discussion w/ Serbian Minister of European Integration Tanja Miscevic I encourage #Serbia to continue show its dedication to deliver on outstanding rule of law issues & to ensure implementation of recent laws Our meeting confirms that Reform agenda is a top priority for Serbia.
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Stevenson’s army, October 10 and 11
I was traveling yesterday, so here is a double edition:
October 11:
– WaPo explains what a siege in Gaza looks like and how Hamas breached the wall
– NYT assesses Israel’s failures
– WSJ says Hamas got money through crypto financing
– Atlantic reminds what Hamas believes
-Kenya force to Haiti blocked
– Polish generals resign over politicization
– US may send another carrier toward Israel
– Analyst summarizes US failures in Afghanistan
-Op-ed writer says Space Force needs own lobbyist on Hill
October 10:
– At the Atlantic Andrew Exum questions the quality of the IDF conscript soldiers.
– NSC calls for Israel to make “proportionate” response.
– Politico sees a “high tech failure”
– US now calls Niger coup a coup
– DOD seems to run the best schools in US
– Susan Glasser examines Jake Sullivan’s actions on Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 9
Of the many commentaries about the conflict, these so far stood out to me:
Tom Friedman in NYT
David Ignatius in WaPo
Reuters report on Hamas deceptions
Although Iran denies it and the US can’t confirm it, Hamas bragged to WSJ that Iran had helped plot the Gaza attacks.
In other news, the House Appropriations chairman says the cuts promised by McCarthy are off the table now that he has been deposed.
And note the strength of AfD in the German elections.
Better late than never,I wanted to note that USGLC put out a good comparison of House & Senate versions of the State-Foreign Ops bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The politics of Hamas’ flood
I don’t often comment on Israel and Palestine. There are many others, including Shibley, who know more about it but have not been able to find solutions. I join most of them in denouncing the heinous Hamas attack, clearly focused in part on civilians, and any retaliatory abuses by the Israelis against Palestinians. But looking beyond current events it is hard not to wonder how current events will work out politically inside Israel, in the Occupied Territories (West Bank and Gaza), in the region, and in the United States.
Inside Israel
In my ultra-rational world, those responsible for Israel’s obvious intelligence and military failures would be held responsible. Either the current government would fall. Or Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an effort to save himself, would accept Yair Lapid’s offer to bring the opposition into a national unity government. That would presumably eject the ultranationalist like Ben Gvir, the current national security miniister, and finance minister Smotrich.
The national unity government would still seek to devastate Hamas in Gaza. But it could also end Netanyahu’s attack on Israel’s judiciary and democracy. And it could end the settler violence and seek an accommodation with the Palestinian Authority (PA) that would give it more effective governing authority over a larger part of the West Bank.
But that isn’t likely. Already some Israelis are blaming Iran. Some are also urging further crackdowns on the Palestinians, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank. If the extremists survive, they will get worse in the future. Their ultimate aim is to rid the West Bank of Palestinians and to subjugate Gaza. Hamas will use its civilian and military hostages as levers against Israel. That will further strengthen the extremists.
Jerusalem as the focus
Extremist Israelis have for years been challenging the status quo on the Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif. Jews are not allowed to pray by their own traditional law. The Israelis have also conducted police operations even inside the Dome of the Rock mosque. This is in addition to extension of Jewish presence in East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want as the capital of their future state, and a big upswing in settler violence agaianst Palestinians in the West Bank.
Hamas is clever. Not only did it invent new ways to assault Israel. It also keyed that assault to Jerusalem, naming its offensive “Al Aqsa Flood” (Al Aqsa refers both to one of the mosques on the Haram al Sharif/Temple Mount as well as to the compound as a awhole). Framing its assault as a response to Israeli misbehavior in Jerusalem enables Hamas to appeal not only to Palestinians in Gaza but also to Palestinians in the West Bank and beyond, as well as the Muslim world more generally. All Muslims, like Jews and Christians, pray in the direction of Al Quds (“the Holiness”), Jerusalem.
In the Occupied Territories
By posing as the defender of Jerusalem, Hamas makes the failures of the secular PA in the West Bank strikingly evident. Palestinians have long been dissatisfied with its unaccountable and poor governance as well as its willingness to cooperate with the Israeli security forces. If current events lead to more settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, a rebellion there that could collapse the PA.
In Gaza, Palestinians are unlikely to rebel no matter how much damage the Israelis do. I won’t say they are used to it. But they haven’t rebelled in the past in the aftermath of several Hamas defeats. They aren’t likely to rebel after a war that will be regarded as a Hamas success.
In the region
The obvious impact in the region is to make Saudi/Israeli mutual recognition, unlikely anyway, more unlikely. The Saudis won’t want to buck public sentiment, which is pro-Palestinian. Nor will they want to reward Israel in the aftermath of the destruction it will wreck in Gaza. The Arab countries that have already recognized Israel (UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan) will speak up about abuses against Palestinians and destruction in Gaza. But I would expect them to try to maintain their relations with Israel.
Both the Israelis and Americans are saying Iran did not play a direct role in the Hamas attack. It will nevertheless be strengthened. It has supplied Hamas for decades. Tehran sponsors Hizbollah in Lebanon and its own forces as well as proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. Thus Iran now all but surrounds Israel and can hope to discomfort the Israelis at will.
In America
The Iran angle will be important in the U.S. Republicans have already blamed President Biden’s agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets in South Korea, even though they have not yet been drawn down. No doubt there will be assertions that the Administration hasn’t done enough to support Israel, though the facts belie that claim. Biden has been as stalwart as any of his predessors in supporting Israeli security and has mobilized U.S. forces in the region.
Nevertheless, those in power get blamed when bad things happen. Trump will no doubt send a few unfounded blasts at Biden. It would be truly tragic if Hamas helps Trump to return to power. But that, too, is possible.
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Stevenson’s army, October 8
I’m late with this as I was traveling yesteday, but still good:
– Clearly an intelligence failure by Israelis
– Failure of a policy to link Saudi Arabia and Israel
-Failure by Netanyahu, Haaretz argues
– Failure requiring new policies
– WaPo reports fear and shock
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 6
– Politico surveys expert opinions on what’s wrong with US politics
– Theda Skocpol sees the end of the Tea Party dynamic
-Former CRS analyst explains power of Speaker Pro Tem
– Democrats on Rules have their views
– FP lays out schools of thought in US foreign policy
In the news, Trump allegedly told nuclear sub secrets to friends
– Max Boot says ex-generals need to denounce Trump
– WaPo says Biden & XI will meet in November
– WSJ says Army plans cuts in special operations forces
-Academic analyzes which countries support Russia
– Biden backtracks on border wall and Venezuela
– The political reaction
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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