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Pie in the sky is no “day after” solution

Tom Warrick, a respected former colleague at the State Department, has offered a thoughtful formula for the “day after” in Gaza. But it is also an impossible formula far from the reality of what is likely to happen.

Before turning to Tom’s specific points, we need to imagine what kind of international presence will be required in Gaza after this war to secure the peace, assuming Israel succeeds in defeating Hamas. Experience suggests this will be a “heavy peace enforcement” mission for a population around 2.5 million. That would require upwards of 30,000 international troops and 4000 police, the latter Arabic-speaking. In addition it will need 7500 Gazan military and 5500 Gazan police. I know nowhere you could get even a fraction of that personnel. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank has fewer than 10,000 police.

Corruption

First priority, Tom says, is to end Hamas culture of economic corruption. But what he refers to as “culture” is in fact Hamas’ authoritarian rule in Gaza. Like other authoritarians, Hamas used the resources of the state to maintain monopolistic control. Any new leadership taking over will want to preserve that system, not destroy it. The root-and-branch reforms Tom advocates would be at best the outcome of a decade-long international presence.

Listening

Most of us who have been involved in international interventions think we should have listened more to “ordinary” people. But it is not easy to do. Assessing what the locals really want is inherently difficult in a post-war environment, when people will often tell you only what they think you want to hear. And what they want most–food, shelter, jobs, and a “normal” life are often top of the list–may be difficult to provide. Most certainly won’t be talking about public integrity and civil service hiring.

Educational curriculum

No question. This needs changing as Gaza education inculcates not only hatred of Israel but of Jews, with whom Gazans are going to need to get along if peace is to last. But the non-Gazan “experts” Tom thinks can do this will find it impossible to reconcile his aim of “lasting coexistence” with the view of the world of the Gazans who have suffered through this and previous wars. The US tried to use “experts” to reform the history curriculum in Iraq. It failed. What the experts want will clash with Gazan experience.

A democratic constitution

I agree with Tom that “Israel needs to demonstrate that it is committed to a two-state solution.” But that doesn’t mean the Gazans are going to write the kind of democratic constitution he wants. Sure Gazans want their own state, but they have no reason to believe that peace or democracy will get them there. They need only look at the Palestinian Authority to conclude the opposite.

Economic rebuilding

The resources to rebuild the economy could well become available, mainly from the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are the prime candidates. We are talking a few tens of billions of dollars, which is chicken feed if the political will exists. But the Gulfies won’t ante up unless they can sell what they do as leading to the Palestinian state the Israelis are unlikely to permit, at least in the immediate post-war period.

Border security

Tom suggests “Israel will want to ensure for at least three decades, as unobtrusively as possible, that neither Iran not anyone else has the ability to smuggle into Gaza the means of waging war.” If this were possible, the Israelis would already have done it. They are no long able even to prevent the smuggling of small arms into the West Bank. There they control not only the borders but also occupy essentially the entire territory.

Bottom line

Hope is not a plan. Nor is despair, but it seems to me more justified at present than hope. Pie in the sky is no “day after” solution.