Day: November 6, 2023
Serbia should defeat Vucic, not Kosovo
Jakub is correct. American acceptance without substantial protest of the terrorist act attempted on September 24 in northern Kosovo is incompatible with any serious shift in US policy in the Balkans. Appeasement knows few limits. The Belgrade-sponored and -trained insurrectionists were not freedom fighters. They were proxies doing the Serbian state’s will against the Kosovo state, which the US recognizes and supposedly prizes as a partner.
This is nuts
Six weeks have passed without any apparent US or EU reaction, beyond mild scolding. In the meanwhile Serbian President Vucic has snubbed the EU in favor of attending a Beijing-hosted Belt and Road Summit.
Not surprisingly, the latest EU-sponsored meeting between Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti failed to make progress. The EU and US want Kurti to institute an Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASMM) without any serious quid pro quo from Vucic. He is unwilling even to see Kosovo join the UN despite a supposedly “legally binding” February agreement not to block it from international organizations. I quote from Article 4: “Serbia will not object to Kosovo’s membership in any international organisation.” Bilateral recognition, Vucic persistently says, is out of the question.
The fault lies mainly in Belgrade
Serbia is mainly at fault for the present stalemate. It has refused to abide by agreements the EU and US claim are legally binding. The backstory includes Belgrade urging Serbs not to use Kosovo license plates, to boycott Kosovo elections, and to attack Kosovo police and international peacekeepers. Belgrade does not abide even by the 2013 agreement that launched the idea of the ASMM, which provides for the Kosovo constitution to be applied in the north, with ample provisions for Serb participation.
Nevertheless the EU is sustaining its “consequences” on Kosovo. They were levied to get duly-elected but non-Serb mayors from using their offices in northern Kosovo municipal buildings and to force Kosovo to reduce its police presence there. Only one of the four mayors I am told is going to his municipal building. The Kosovo police presence has been reduced due to improved security conditions. But there is no sign of easing on the EU’s part.
The Association
The nub of the issue is the Association. The EU gave Vucic and Kurti drafts of its statutes at their last meeting. I hoped it would have leaked by now, but apparently it hasn’t. The key question is whether the proposal guarantees that the Association will operate in accordance with the Kosovo constitution and not constitute a new layer of governance like Republika Srpska in Bosnia. That has rendered Bosnia dysfunctional. Republika Srpska originated in six Serb Autonomous Regions, which united to form the larger entity. That is a precedent the US and EU should not allow.
I’ve seen no guarantee they won’t. The Americans have published an op/ed that says it won’t happen. But they aren’t willing to sign on the dotted line to prevent it. Nor are the Europeans prepared to commit. Without such a guarantee, an elaborate proposal like the one from the European Institute of Peace and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung runs the risk of laying the groundwork for partition of Kosovo and secession.
The right way forward
The Americans succeeded last week in forcing the resignation of Serbian Security Information Agency chief Aleksandar Vulin. He is a diehard advocate of the “Serbian world,” which is code for Greater Serbia and entails Kosovo partition. It would be hard to doubt that he backed the September 24 plot, providing material as well as political support. But his resignation is no substitute for a major shift in Belgrade policy, which can only come from from the mouth of President Vucic. He needs to acknowledge responsibility for the September 24 plot, apologize, and pledge nothing like it will happen again.
The odds of that are nil to zero. Vucic has called parliamentary and local elections for December 17, hoping they will shore up his flaging support. Or at least give him a renewed mandate. He won’t be apologizing to Kosovo for anything in the middle of an election campaign. Nor thereafter.
The best that can happen now is defeat of the present governing coalition. The opposition claims it has united as “Serbia Against Violence.” That is good news. Now they need to focus on getting their often young, left/liberal, environmentalist, and anti-violence voters to the polls. Serbia should defeat Vucic. Not Kosovo.
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Stevenson’s army, November 6
– Blinken and CIA Director Burns are in the Middle East.
– WSJ notes threats to US forces in the region
– NYT says State concerned assault rifles may be given to Israeli settlers
– New IC budget numbers declassified. ODNI table
– Will US need a draft? [This issue will come up in mock conference exercise]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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