Month: December 2023
Stevenson’s army, December 20
– The Senate left town for the year, but cleared military nominations first.
– Here’s the Colorado Supreme Court decision barring Trump from the primary ballot
– CNBC says crypto PACs have a lot of money
– Dan Drezner sees incentives for political games over foreign policy
– Politico discusses Trump attacks on civil service
– WSJ says Hamas is planning postwar governance
– Paul Musgrave defends academic freedom by citing the margarine battle in Iowa
– New York magazine tells of Kissinger’s post-government business and partying
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Free, unfair, and fraudulent
Twenty-four hours has given me enough time to realize my assessment yesterday of the Serbian elections Sunday was incomplete. The national poll no doubt reflected the will of the citizens, expressed after a free but unfair campaign in which the government, especially the President, put a thumb heavily on the scale. He may not merit the absolute majority in parliament he gained, but no one else came close.
Belgrade was different
That is not true of the Belgrade city council election. The authorities assured the opposition they would accept any outcome in that poll. But Vucic and his coalition concentrated their election-day cheating budget on buying municipal votes and shipping in voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Montenegro and Kosovo. That ensured a narrow but fraudulent victory in Belgrade.
OSCE has neglected to document it, but there is ample anecdotal evidence of the municipal election fraud. Many of the people involved presumably had the right to vote. They could have done it more conveniently in Bosnia. But tens of thousands came by the busload to vote in Belgrade, where many lacked addresses. Coorindators guided them to polling places. No doubt the government paid for those buses as well as the people who organized the effort. Vucic’s relatively narrow margin of victory in Belgrade (39%/35%) has prompted protests that the government will no doubt ignore. If they grow, the police will use violence to end them.
Why it matters
Americans may find it difficult to understand the out-sized significance of municipal elections in a capital city. The Democrats have controlled Washington DC for the past 50 years of home rule. But Republicans cherish their ability to monkey with the city’s legislation, which requires approval in Congress. In many European countries, control of the capital is regarded as second in importance only to control of the national government. That is the case in Serbia. Losing Belgrade would be a big headline. Many would regard it as a bellwether for the future.
That’s not the only problem for Vucic. He controls patronage and public works in Belgrade. His approval is required for any major projects and important hires. The local police do his will. Ceding those privileges to the opposition would limit his power and undermine his authority even at the national level. Who wants to pay to play with someone who can’t deliver? No elected autocrat wants to deal with an opposition mayor in the capital.
What to do about it
First and foremost, the US and EU should be cognizant of the failure of electoral democracy in Serbia. In most of the rest of the Balkans, free, pretty fair, and honest elections are now the rule. In Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bosnia alternation in power is a real possibility. That is no any longer the case in Serbia. Vucic has restored something much like Milosevic’s regime, which was also an electoral autocracy. Buttressed by media control and state resources, Vucic has rendered the opposition powerless, obliterated independent institutions, and gained command of all the levers of power.
Next Brussels and Washington need to adjust their expectations accordingly. Vucic has told them he will do nothing to recognize Kosovo, even de facto. They need to believe him and give up the ambitions of a dialogue with Pristina that has proven fruitless. They also need to give up trying to win Serbia for the West. Belgrade has embraced its eastern destiny. Vucic wants to ride with Putin and Xi, as well as Orban, Lukashenko, and Aliyev. He has no interest in riding with Biden, von der Leyen, Scholz, or Sunak.
But the Americans and European should not give up on the Serbian opposition. The Serbia Against Violence coalition that won one-fourth of the parliament has tapped into serious discontent and generated large and regular demonstrations. Only a mass movement of that sort will be capable of mobilizing Serbs against someone who is claiming the mantle of Milosevic. Free, unfair, and fraudulent was his approach too.
PS: @AlexandravonNah, Deutsche Welle, is reporting:
“We should not speak about fair election. It was unfair,” Stefan Schennach, one of the heads of the OSCE election observers’ delegation to Serbia, tells us. He adds: “The victory in Belgrade was stolen from the opposition.” His teams reported that the pro-western alliance ‘Serbia against violence’ got in all polling stations here twice as many votes than the ruling party. The official results do not reflect that.
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Stevenson’s army, December 19
– US sets up a Red Sea task force
–Germany deploys troops abroad
– Election interference by several countries
– Reuters forecasts Trump foreign policy
– GOP voters support law-breaking
– Gaza hurts Biden with voters
– 118th Congress hasn’t done much
WaPo has new interactive showing DC area flood risks
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Vucic got what he wanted and then some
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s Progressive Party won an absolute majority in national parliamentary elections, with double the vote of the main opposition coalition yesterday. His party also won a plurality in the Belgrade city council. The election was “free” in the sense that all registered citizens could vote, but far from “fair.” The government exploited media control, pressure on voters, abuse of institutions and public functions as well as forged signatures and phantom voters. Elections in Serbia are stolen before election day. Elected autocrats are all the rage these days.
Stronger and more recalcitrant
The new parliament replaces one in which Vučić’s party had only a plurality. He gained that in an election that much of the opposition boycotted. The election thus strengthens his hold on power, which is going eleven years. If it sticks together, the one-quarter of the parliament that the main opposition coalition, Serbia Against Violence, gained will give it a platform for its anti-violence, anti-corruption, anti-inflation messages. But it will not be able to block legislation or exert substantial influence on foreign and defense policy, which is the prerogative of the president.
We can expect ontinuation of Serbia’s current strong lean towards befriending fellow autocrats in Russia, China, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Hungary. While the Progressives ran on a nominally pro-Europe ticket, they have done little to move Serbia closer to the European Union. Instead they have successfully straddled the East/West divide. Vučić pursues a “non-aligned” hedging policy that flirts with both in order to extract valuable concessions from Moscow, Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
Some might hope Vučić would use his victory to settle Serbia’s conflict with Kosovo and move definitively in the Western direction. That isn’t going to happen. He has locked himself into intransigient opposition. He refuses even to acknowledge Kosovo’s de facto independence. This would be easy to do. He could turn Milan Radoicic, who led a failed terrorist rebellion in northern Kosovo September 24, over to the Pristina authorities. Serbia recognized the validity of their judiciary in the 2013 Brussels agreement that Vučić has been trying to get Pristina to respect. But he won’t do that. Or anything else to make amends for sponsoring a well-equipped armed rebellion intended to lead on to a Serbian military invasion.
Europe and the US will do nothing
The US, UK, and EU could in the aftermath of this flawed election their pressure on Vučić. They say they want Serbia solve its problems with Kosovo, adhere to Ukraine sanctions against Russia, and speed reforms required for EU accession. But the five EU member states that don’t recognize Kosovo will prevent any push on Kosovo issues. Hungary will block any pressure on Russia questions. The EU as a whole is much more concerned with Ukraine and will let Serbia slide.
The Americans are still claiming that they’ve convinced Serbia to embrace the West. This is laughable but no one in Washington these days wants to tell the would-be emperors they have no clothes. They prefer to pretend that agreements Serbia has renounced in writing are legally binding. “They are being written into the requirements for accession” State Department officials like to explain. That is fine with Belgrade, which knows full well accession is a distant horizon, at best.
I might have some hope for the UK, which isn’t committed to the American pipedreams and isn’t constrained any longer by the EU. But London hasn’t been vocal in denouncing Serbia’s current behavior. It is likely shy of offending Brussels and Washington and anxious to protect its own equities in Belgrade.
What’s the then some?
Vučić’s party wasn’t the only one to do well in yesterday’s elections. Some ultra-nationalists and outright pro-Russian parties did too. That gives Vučić an “Après moi, le déluge” argument. If you are not nice to me, look what might come next!
Some in Kosovo might hope that now at least Pristina can be relieved of the “consequences” the EU mistakenly levied in response to its deployment of mayors to municipal buildings and police to northern Kosovo, where they blocked an armed rebellion. We’ll have to wait and see, but I doubt Pristina will get satisfaction. The EU has developed a habit of favoring Serbia that is going to be hard to break. The US is not far behind.
President Vučić has won his cake. Now he’ll eat it. That’s not good news.
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Stevenson’s army, December 18
– Netanyahu brags that he has blocked a Palestinian state.
– Semafor says US is considering attacks on Houthis.
– WSJ says US & Israel knew of Hamas funding but didn’t act.
– David Ignatius reports on the West Bank.
– Critics see problems in DOD drone program
-New NDAA includes provision requiring congressional action to pull out of NATO. [I sympathize with the intent but am unsure of its legality.]
– Lawyers urge SIOP for economic conflict with China
– Atlantic notes history of changing Supreme Court jurisdiction over cases
– On the 250 anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, Smithsonian has history.
Semafor editor suggests these newsletters for following China: Flagship Senior Editor Prashant Rao recommended Sinocism, The Wire China, ChinaTalk, and WSJ China for all your in-depth China-watching needs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A Palestinian state yes, recognition now no
A bad idea is making the rounds in discussions of the Gaza war. People I respect are recommending that the United States formally recognize a Palestinian state.
I support the idea of a Palestinian state. But now is not the time for the US to recognize one. Doing so could have catastrophic consequences for President Biden in the 2024 election. Those who want to see him re-elected should lay off this premature idea and focus instead on a ceasefire.
The alleged diplomatic advantages are spurious
It is true that 139 other states have recognized Palestine. But that has made little difference. None of those recognitions has contributed an iota to the welfare of Palestinians or incentivized Israel to negotiate seriously. Nor would US recognition. It would however strain relations with Israel and reduce American leverage on Prime Minister Netanyahu. Even Israelis who want an early end to the Gaza war would not understand American recognition while Gaza is in chaos and the West Bank in nascent rebellion.
American recognition would not, as alleged, convince Palestinians “that the United States is finally matching its talk of peace with meaningful action.” So long Washington continues to veto UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire in addition to shipping massive amounts of arms to Israel, Palestinians will rightly perceive that America is supporting their adversary.
US recognition is not required to name an ambassador to deal directly with the Palestinians. Washington had such an ambassador to the Palestinians for decades before President Trump closed the consulate in Jerusalem that housed him. The US should name an envoy and station her in East Jerusalem.
Most Palestinans would not welcome a US effort to bolster the PA. Especially in the West Bank, where the PA has ruled for a long time without any democratic legitimacy. There Palestinians would regard US recognition as helping a decrepit and corrupt entity. Seventy-five per cent of West Bankers support Hamas control of Gaza (twice the percentage of Gazans!). Many Gazans would regard US recognition of the PA under current conditions as laughable, if any are still capable of laughing.
The domestic political consequences could be severe
Support for Israeli military action in the US was only 50% in November. Younger people, people of color, and Democrats are less supportive. A lot of Americans would support a ceasefire, but there is no evidence they would care much about diplomatic recognition.
Moreover, the post-war situation in Gaza will be challenging. Vast amounts of aid will be required even as Hamas remnants continue to create chaos. No one no one will be able to suppress the disorder entirely. If the PA is unable to handle Gaza–and there is no reason to believe it can–then Washington will have put its recognition chip on a losing proposition. Biden, whose approval numbers are low and declining, would not benefit from the perception he had erred. Recognition could provide the Republicans with a forceful critique and sway independents, now evenly split on the Gaza war, in the wrong direction.
The right approach is to await better conditions
Recognition should wait until after the war, renewal of the Palestinian Authority as a democratic entity, a return of relative calm to the West Bank, and relief of the inevitable suffering in Gaza. Once order is restored, recognition should be on the table, but not before. We can hope that by then Israelis will have chased Prime Minister Netanyahu from office and installed a government ready to deal with the renewed PA. That would open the door to recognition without opening the door to Donald Trump.
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