Day: January 10, 2024
Stevenson’s army, January 10
Prostate cancer: treatable, not disqualifying from service
WSJ notes Biden’s loyalty to advisers
Iraqi government doesn’t really want to kick US out
Staffers ain’t like they used to be
Administration revives export advisory council
Correction: here’s the right link for Ed Joseph on Serbia
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Has the sunset of the West begun?
Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
After the collapse of then existing socialism in 1991, the clash of ideologies seemed finished. Francis Fukuyama’s “The End of History” became a bestseller.
It did not take long for him to admit the error of his prophecy. At the same time, humanity was realizing that hopes for global peace were false. History continued to flow, yet more violently and at higher human costs.
The US is to blame
The undeniable protagonist of the new hot war era was the winner of the 45-year Cold War: the American-led democratic West. The Warsaw Pact dissolved, but NATO continued to exist and to progressively encircle Russia, the collapsed adversary.
The US, with or without NATO, led a series of wars that go on to this day: the Gulf War (1991), the devastating bombardments of Yugoslavia (1995 and 1999), the military interventions in Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), Syria (2014) and the latest, indirect but decisive US involvement in Ukraine (2022) and the slaughter in Gaza (2023).
Human values and democratic principles are not the driving force of this on-going violence. It is the superpower’s eternal greed to achieve and maintain global hegemony.
What’s next?
In periods of crises, political change is critical. Is there a basis for hope?
Although history’s next games remain unknown, we will get to know one of them relatively soon. Recent polls in the US sugest that the presidential election next November will likely get Donald Trump, or a Republican politician with similar views, back on the top of the global American superpower.
The entire world, including the European democratic West, should not forget ex-President Trump’s unorthodox, unpredictable, and thus perilous persona.
Flash back
In 2016, president-elect Trump announced his doctrine for world order: “America First”. Its main pillar was the dissolution of the EU. He strongly urged European countries to follow the example of Brexit.
The head of the Munich Security Conference, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, called this “a non-military declaration of war.” The response of the then President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, was characteristic: “Europe is threatened from all sides, including the USA.” Then German Chancellor Angela Merkel wondered whether “we will be able to cooperate with the US in the future or will we retreat into parochial policies.” At the same time, she underlined the importance of international multilateral institutions, such as the EU and the UN, which Trump defiantly discredited.
Trump also encouraged US allies Japan and South Korea, and indirectly Saudi Arabia, to acquire nuclear weapons. This violated American obligations, as well as the binding commitments of the countries in question to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Trump publicly described NATO as “obsolete.” He even proposed a retreat to bilateral agreements, a proposition Russia would support.
Hence, there are well-founded doubts worldwide about the future posture of the US in defending the security, principles, and interests of the democratic West as well as abiding by historic alliances and international treaties.
Is the West at a geopolitical turning point? Has the sunset begun?
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Counterproductive is not good strategy
2024 is starting badly. Let’s review the main acts on the stages I watch.
In the Middle East, it’s chaos all around
Israel’s war on Gaza is now approaching the three-month mark. Most of Gaza is now rubble. Its population is hungry, thirsty, cold, sick, and unhoused. The Israelis have killed perhaps 8000 Hamas fighters, along with well over twenty thousand civilians. But Hamas retains the bulk of its force and continues to launch rockets and fight back.
The Israeli right wants to transport a significant number of Palestinians to Egypt or elsewhere in Africa. Such a forced displacement would be a war crime. Nor is it clear how displacement to the Sinai, which borders Israel as much as Gaza does, would improve Israel’s security situation.
The Israelis are assassinating both Hizbollah and Hamas leaders with strikes in Lebanon, which risks expansion of the war. The Houthis in Yemen have already expanded the war to the Red Sea, where they trying to strike merchant and naval vessels. The Americans will respond if that continues.
In Iran, a terrorist bomb killed at least 100 people at a memorial event for Qasim Suleimani, the former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader the US assassinated in 2020. ISIS claimed responsibility, but Iran as usual blames the US and Israel.
The Israeli crackdown on the West Bank continues apace, along with Jewish settler violence against Palestinians there. Palestinians talk about “from the river to the sea.” Israelis are doing it.
The Americans are still shipping weapons to Israel and vetoing most UN Security Council resolutions, but frictions with Israel over humanitarian assistance, the widening war, and the eventual political outcome in Gaza are real.
Net result: chaos all around. This serves Prime Minister Netanyahu well, as it allows him to continue the war and blocks political change at home. But it serves his country poorly, as Israel is stretched and faces increasing tension with Iran and its surrogates.
In Ukraine, a vulnerable moment
According to @k_sonin “Over the whole 2023 year Putin gained 0.01 percent of the Ukrainian territory:
Russian forces still occupy about 18% of Ukraine. But Kyiv has neutralized the Russian Navy and succeeded in protecting Ukraine’s outgoing grain shipments through the Black Sea. Ukrainians appear as unified as ever in wanting to remove Russian troops entirely from sovereign Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
The biggest threat to Ukraine today comes from Europe and the US. Both are having trouble getting legislative approval for their latest aid packages, of $55 billion and $50 billion respectively. In the US this issue will likely be resolved, one way or the other, soon as budget deadlines loom. The situation in Europe is less clear.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is proving as determined in pursuing counterproductive policies as Prime Minister Netanyahu. He has unified NATO, pushed Finland and now Sweden into the Alliance, and scared countries all around Russia’s periphery into beefing up their defenses.
The Balkans continue to deteriorate
Belgrade’s purposeful effort to establish de facto control of Serb populations in neighboring countries continues.
While President Vucic doesn’t talk “Serbian home,” he is doing it. He is unlikely to support secession of Republika Srpska. But he is openly supporting Milorad Dodik’s effort in Bosnia and Herzegovina to extract the Serb entity from the authority of the Sarajevo government and legal system. With a lot of help from the Serbian Orthodox Church, Belgrade has also succeeded in getting a pro-Serbian, pro-Russian government installed in Montenegro.
In Kosovo, Belgrade has outdone itself. It has
- Removed Serbs from Pristina’s police, courts, and administration in the northern four municipalities with Serb majorities.
- Sponsored a boycott of municipal elections.
- Rented mobs to protest the election of non-Serb mayors and to attack NATO-led peacekeepers.
- Kidnapped police from Kosovo’s territory.
- Trained and equipped a September 24 terrorist operation intended to create the pretext for military intervention.
- Denied the validity of agreements the US and EU claim are legally binding.
- Run unfair and fraudulent elections and is violently repressing the resulting protests.
The EU and US reaction has been underwhelming. Washington and Brussels have done nothing to counter Serbia’s defiance. The meager result is Belgrade’s acceptance of Kosovo license plates without covering the offensive “R” for “Republic.” Unless and until there are real consequences, Serbia will continue its drift eastward into the arms of Putin, Xi, Aliyev, Lukashenko, and Orban.
The wrong directions
Israel, Russia, the EU and the US are all pursuing counterproductive strategies. You don’t get where you want to go by heading in the wrong direction.
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