Month: January 2024
Stevenson’s army, January 17
– WSJ sees divisions in Israeli cabinet
– Iran fired missiles into Iraq and Pakistan.
– Senate overwhelmingly defeated Sanders amendment on Gaza
– North Korea sees South as enemy
– Biden meets congressional leaders about Ukraine
– USA Today has 911 call on Austin, key personal details redacted
– Atlantic Council has special report on Defense Innovation
– Graham Allison says US allies are already planning on a new Trump administration
And on this 61st anniversary of Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell address warning of a “military-industrial complex,” newly discovered documents show it went through over 20 drafts. This article does not mention what I’ve read elsewhere, that an early version referred to a “military-industrial-congressional complex,” but that was changed for political reasons.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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What’s the alternative to counterproductive?
Last week, I claimed that Russia, Israel, the EU and US are all pursuing counterproductive policies, respectively in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Balkans. But reasonable people will ask: what’s the alternative? So here I offer some answers.
Russia needs to lose
In Ukraine, it is clear Russia cannot gain more territory with its current force configuation. Putin’s best bet is a negotiation that would leave his forces in place. That would give them time to re-group, re-arm, and reinforce. Rumors circulated at the end of last year that he was looking for such a pause. In the meanwhile, he will use his political allies in Europe and the US to continue to block the respective $55 billion and $50 billion aid packages. That could weaken Ukrainian will and cause Kyiv to cave.
The best bet for the US and EU is to approve those aid packages as quickly as possible. They should also lift any qualitative restrictions on arms exports to Ukraine. The sooner Kyiv gets what it needs to retake all of its territory, including Crimea, the quicker this war will end. There is no evidence that Russia can or will escalate in response. To the contrary, its economy is weakening and Russians are wanting an end to the war.
Israel needs to hold Netanyahu accountable
Israeli policy on Gaza has been misconceived. Before October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu relied on and helped finance Hamas to govern the Palestinians there. That also ensured they could not unite political with those in the West Bank. Now he is relying on continuation of the war to postpone any political reckoning inside Israel. He after all is responsible for the Israel Defense Forces’ lack of preparedness and slowness in response to the October 24 terrorist assault. No one expects him to survive in the prime ministry once the war subsides.
Destroying Hamas’ capability of carrying out another attack does not depend on leveling Gaza or killing tens of thousands of civilians. It will require a concerted effort to hunt the perpetrators. I’d prefer Israel bring them to trial, but the Israelis are more likely just to kill them. That would certainly not constitute anything like mass murder, crimes against humanity, or genocide. A good part of the Arab world would breathe a sigh of relief. The rest of the world might even applaud.
The US and EU need to focus their efforts in the right place
In the Balkans, the US and EU are ignoring what is important and focusing on trivia. They have failed to react effectively to Belgrade’s sponsorship of the September 24 terrorist attack inside northern Kosovo. Washington and Brussels have also failed to respond to Belgrade’s free but unfair and fraudulent elections on December 17. They have allowed, once again, celebration of an illegal, genocide-promoting holiday in Republika Srpska, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegvona.
The alternative is to focus on what counts and do it together. Their conclusions about the September 24 attack should be published and “consequences” levied on Belgrade until it turns over the perpetrators to Kosovo for trial. Brussels and Washington should demand a re-run of the fraudulent Belgrade election. Allowing Presdent Vucic impunity is not going to get him to embrace the West. His policy is hedging. Pulling him closer to the West requires that he feel the heat of Western displeasure with his outrageously anti-democratic behavior.
None of these alternatives is beyond the realm of real possibility. But they will require leadership from the Biden administration that has been lacking. Secretary of State Blinken has been rightly preoccupied with avoiding the slippery slope to a wider war in the Middle East. President Biden himself needs to lead the effort to reverse counterproductive policies. Only he can win Congressional approval for the Ukraine aid, end Israel’s massive assault in Gaza, and block Serbia from its anti-democratic course.
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Stevenson’s army, January 16
The Federal Government is closed today, but I’m open. No broadsheet papers, however — new carrier who’s “never seen snow.”
-Semafor says Iran IRGC has people in Yemen
– Iran admits attack in Erbil.
– US approves Javelins to Kosovo.
– Here’s summary of new CR, with Senate voting maybe tonight.
– RollCall says Speaker Johnson wants to cut DHS via 302[b] allocations
– Sen. Sanders wants vote on Israeli practices in Gaza
Here’s Politico’s report on Dean Steinberg et al.’s visit to Taiwan:
US DELEGATION IN TAIWAN: A delegation of former senior administration officials tasked by the State Department “to travel in their private capacity to Taiwan” is meeting with the island’s post-election incoming senior officials. Landing in Taipei just a day after the election, former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg met with Lai, outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, leaders of the Kuomintang opposition, and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je, who’s set to be a kingmaker in the race for the parliament speakership.
According to Laura Rosenberger, chairperson of the American Institute in Taiwan, the delegation stressed that the U.S. intends to work with all parties in Taiwan, adding there would be more meetings with senior Taiwanese officials on stronger cooperation, including in beefing up Taiwan’s self-defense. There’ll also be continued cooperation in trade and technology, Rosenberger added.
The concern — a parliament run by Lai’s rivals: Rosenberger’s remarks come as diplomats in Taipei are waiting to see how an opposition-led parliament could delay the DPP government’s policies, especially on defense. The Kuomintang, which stresses engagement with China, had a track record of criticizing military procurement on the grounds of corruption allegations.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Avoiding the slippery slope to the wider war
Hizbollah and Israel are trading tit for tat attacks across the Lebanon-Israel border. The Houthis in Yemen are attacking shipping in the Red Sea. The US and UK have raided Houthi military assets. Shia “popular mobilization forces” (PMFs) are attacking US facilities in Iraq and US forces are occasionally responding. Iran has launched missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, Erbil, targeting the house of the US Consul General. Even added altogether it won’t amount to the 1000 deaths required to designate something a “war,” but we are clearly on the slippery slope to the long-feared wider war in the Middle East.
Iran is benefiting
This should not be welcome in the US. Ukraine is already absorbing vast quanitities of US military supplies. Deterring China from attacking Taiwan is stretching not only logistics but also US naval operations. Israel’s war on Gaza is requiring enormous amounts of US and European materiel, without any prospect of improving US security.
But the enemy gets a vote. Iran may not be directing all of what Hizbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Iraqi PMFs are doing. But Tehran has supplied the means and resistance ideology that motivates them all. Iran is hoping to force the US out of the region. So far, that isn’t working. The US has deployed additional naval and other assets to the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Tehran is enriching more uranium and moving closer to nuclear weapons capability. No more than a few weeks would be required for Iran to construct an atomic weapon, assuming its scientists have already done the necessary designs, experimented with the required conventional explosives, and acquired the needed non-fissile material.
My former dean, Eliot Cohen, argues that the way to prevent the wider war is to levy a devastating attack on the Houthis, rather than the well-calculated proportional one the Biden Administration has so far administered. I’m not sure he is wrong, but it will take a more reckless president than Biden to pursue that course. That is something neither Eliot nor I would welcome.
Regaining advantage
The US needs somehow to regain a more advantageous position in order to shape the course of events. The place to start is Gaza. Biden should end the war there by reading the riot act to Prime Minister Netanyahu: no more weapons if the killing of civilians continues at anything like previous pace.
A pause in the large-scale attacks on Gaza would give the Israelis an opportunity to unseat the unpopular Netanyahu and put in his place a government that prioritizes the fate of the hostages, humanitarian conditions inside Gaza, and negotiations with the Palestinians. Such a government would also continue targeted raids on Hamas leadership and militants who participated in the October 7 attack on Israel. But it would end the disproportionate bombing of civilian areas and open Gaza up to both commercial and humanitarian shipment of goods and services.
Such a pause would give diplomats an opportunity to pursue the possibility of an agreement between Lebanon and Israel on outstanding, but relatively minor, border issues, thus depriving Hizbollah of a major rallying cry. It would also relieve pressure on Iraq to evict American bases. As for the Houthis, they have proven resilient. No quick blow is going to make them go away. We are in for a long effort to deprive them of the military capabilitiues they have amassed in recent years.
Good fortune
We should count our blessings. China is in economic trouble and in no position to attack Taiwan anytime soon. The Taiwanese election yesterday of a pro-independence leader will provoke lots of Beijing rhetoric, and many planes crossing the Taiwan Strait median line, but no actual military attack.
Moscow has celebrated the European and American blockage of assistance to Ukraine, but we can hope that is temporary. It is vital that Kyiv get whatever it needs to chase Russian forces from all of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. That alone would greatly enhance American leverage worldwide.
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Stevenson’s army, January 15
– Axios reports US criticism of Israel’s war policies
– New Yorker’s David Remnick criticizes Netanyahu
– Eliot Cohen criticizes US response to Houthi attacks
– WaPo hits Trump statements about war
– Dan Drexner criticizes Zelikow views on US statecraft
– NYT says US thinks Iran wants to avoid wider war
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 14
– NYT says the Israeli et al. war is widening
– NYT also says much of Houthi offensive capability remains
– WSJ sees hopes for Ukraine support “slim”
– NYT says Russia has gained “upper hand” in East
– WaPo has tick-tock on Austin illness. Clearly his immediate staff was grossly negligent.
– Politico says there is a deal for another laddered CR
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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