Serbia is the problem, Serbs the solution

Where did they get this nice photo in my living room?

I did this interview for Arlinda Rrmoku of Pristina outlet Sinjali yesterday:

Dialogue

1.       What progress has been made towards the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia in recent years?

A: Very little. Acceptance of documents and license plates. Payment of electricity bills. Good things that should have happened long ago.

2.       What are the main obstacles hindering the normalization process between Kosovo and Serbia?

A: The main obstacle is Serbia’s resistance. But Kosovo has also failed to do all it could to ensure the comfort and loyalty of its Serb citizens, which is a vital part of normalization.

3.       How do you assess the role of the European Union in facilitating dialogue and reconciliation between Kosovo and Serbia?

A: The EU has failed to use its leverage with Serbia. It has used leverage with Kosovo, but inappropriately and without results.

Politics are an obstacle

4.       What impact could the recent political changes in Kosovo and Serbia have on the normalization process?

A: Not much. In Serbia, Vucic remains very much in charge. In Kosovo Kurti and Osmani remain in charge.

Washington has been too

5.       How do you see the role of the United States in promoting stability and peace in the Western Balkans, particularly regarding Kosovo-Serbia relations?

A: Washington has done poorly in recent years. It was a serious mistake to prioritize the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, which in my view can only come with recognition.

6.       What steps should be taken to address the remaining issues in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, such as the status of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo?

A: Pristina should be taking unilateral action to ensure the comfort and loyalty of its Serb citizens, as indicated above. This will require much greater effort to meet their needs, allow Serbia’s legitimate subsidies to flow, and protect their property, in particular at the monastery in Decan/Decani.

As is Russia

7.       How do you view the involvement of other regional actors, such as Russia and Turkey, in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue process?

A: They don’t really play directly, but Russia is supporting Vucic’s illiberalism at home and irredentism with his neighbors. Turkey I see as a relatively minor player, though it occasionally will weigh in.

8.       What are the potential implications of the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue on the broader stability of the Western Balkans?

Security is at risk

A: The dialogue as conducted in recent years has not been a factor for stability. Its difficulties have echoed in the region.

9.       How can economic cooperation and integration initiatives contribute to the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia?

A: I believe it can: having populations and companies that prosper could lessen hostilities and open new possibilities. But Serbia’s refusal to recognize Kosovo makes this difficult.

10.   How do you assess the security situation in the Western Balkans, particularly in light of recent developments?

A: It’s shaky, due mainly to Serbian malfeasance.

11.   What are the main security challenges facing the region and how can they be addressed?

A: Serbia and Russia are the main security challenges in the region.

12.   How do you see the role of NATO and other international organizations in ensuring security and stability in the Western Balkans?

A: NATO is the guarantor in Kosovo, Croatia, Montenegro, and Macedonia as well as the backup guarantor to the EU in Bosnia and Herzegovina. That makes it pretty important to the region. The EU has the primary role in Bosnia.

13.   What impact could unresolved disputes and ethnic tensions have on the security situation in the region?

A: I don’t worry about a big war or a long one, but localized instability and ethnic cleansing is a serious threat in Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro.

Borders need improvement

14.   How do you assess the effectiveness of border management and security cooperation among Western Balkan countries?

A: More would be better. Trade delays at the borders are too long, migration and trafficking too easy, and the border between Serbia and Kosovo too porous.

15.   What role can the European Union play in promoting security sector reform and institution-building in the Western Balkans?

A: You’ll have to ask the EU, but my understanding is that the EU does a great deal on border management.

16.   How do you see the potential for increased cooperation between Western Balkan countries and neighboring EU member states in addressing common security challenges?

A: I’d like to see more, especially between Croatia and Bosnia as well as Bulgaria and Macedonia, but political issues make that sometimes problematic.

Reciprocal reassurance is key

17.   What are your recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders to promote peace, stability, and reconciliation in the Western Balkans, particularly between Kosovo and Serbia?

A: Kosovo needs to ensure the comfort and loyalty of its Serb population, Serbia needs to ensure the comfort and loyalty of its Albanian population, and the two countries need to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. When they do those things, peace, stability and reconciliation will be far easier than today.