Day: June 17, 2024
The real threat to Israel is…
One of my sharpest readers questions, “do you seriously believe that Hamas can destroy the state of Israel?” I had cited that concern to account for Israeli policy in Gaza.
The answer is “no,” I don’t. But I do think it useful to acknowledge that concern in accounting for what the Israelis are doing. A state can justify almost anything if it can convince its population that its enemies are ready to destroy it. Hamas and its enablers in Tehran have said that is their objective. Those threats and Hamas’ homicidal behavior on October 7 have fed Israeli indifference, and even support, for the human rights abuses occurring in Gaza today.
The multi-front war
That behavior is generating a far greater threat to Israel than the October 7 attack. The West Bank is boiling. Yemeni Houthi and Lebanese Hizbollah attacks are escalating. Iran is enriching more uranium to close to weapon-usable levels. Israel’s international isolation is growing. The Gaza war has lasted already much longer than the Israelis anticipated. Does the Israeli Defense Force really want to fight on two or more fronts for the next six months or so?
Things are no better for Israel in the US. Prime Minister Netanyahu may imagine that the shift of Muslim votes away from President Biden will bring his favored candidate to power in Washington. But Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to the US will no doubt give American Muslims pause. The Republicans in Congress will rain praise on the Prime Minister. Some Democrats will not attend or walk out. Trump will have no compunction about supporting Israeli abuses in Gaza. The Christian evangelicals will back him. But liberal Jews, who are the majority in the US, will not. I hope Muslims will join them in voting for Biden.
The alternatives
What is the alternative for Israel? Jerusalem (that really is Israel’s capital, even if I would have preferred Trump not move the US embassy there until a final settlement) could announce that it is pausing the fighting and injecting massive humanitarian assistance into Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces have announced a temporary suspension along one vital route. That is a step in the right direction, but far from sufficient. Israel needs to put the onus on Hamas to also stop its attacks. A massive flow of aid would give Gazans an opportunity to loosen Hamas’ grasp and begin to determine their own fate.
Jerusalem could in addition seek a settlement on Israel’s northern border, one that ends the ti-for-tat bombardments and returns the area to relative calm. Rather than escalating to re-establish deterrence, as is their habit, the Israelis could do what they did with Iran: reduce their retaliation. This would signal to Hizbollah readiness to accept a return to the status quo ante. US envoy Amos Hochstein is seeking to calm things on the Israel/Lebanon border. Let’s wish him success.
It is much harder to know what to do about the Houthis. They seem determined to assert their role in “the resistance.” They are using Iran’s military technology to attack both shipping in the Red Sea and Israel, with relatively little effect on military targets but considerable damage to commercial shipping and world markets. The Houthi menace, and it is a menace, is likely to outlast both the Hamas and Hizbollah threats.
As for the American front, support for Israel is rapidly becoming a partisan issue, with part of the Democratic Party doubtful about unconditional assistance. This is entirely out of keeping with past practice and not good for Israel, which needs a Prime Minister who can speak to Congress without anyone walking out.
The real threat
The real threat to Israel is Netanyahu and his determination to continue the Gaza war until he can declare victory and stave off any challenge to his hold on power. Israelis are unhappy with him because of the government’s failure on October 7 to protect its citizens. They need to begin to realize that his policies toward the Palestinians are just as disgraceful. In addition, they aggravate the Hamas, Hizbollah, and Houthi threats.
Unfortunately, no replacement prime minister on the horizon today seems willing or able to lead Israelis in the direction of resolving the conflict with the Palestinians. Nor do the citizens seem ready to support anyone who does. At this point, Israel is more a threat to itself than is Hamas.
RSS - Posts
