Democracy matters, but so does the candidate

2024 is a year replete with elections. The most important, not only for the US but also for much of the rest of the world, is not until November 5. We are already more than halfway there. How are things going?

The good news

Pretty well. In India, France, the United Kingdom, South Africa, Pakistan, Macedonia, Mexico, and Taiwan electorates have demonstrated reduced support for regimes in power while either maintaining the incumbents or installing reasonable moderates.

Even in Iran, where elections are unfair due to prior regime selection of candidates and unfree due to regime control of the media, voters chose a relative moderate.

The European Parliament has likewise remained mainly in the hands of relative moderates, despite gains by right-wing nationalists:

These are by my lights good outcomes.

The bad news

Unfree and unfair elections elsewhere did what elections do in autocracies. They confirmed the autocrats. Vladimir Putin and Bashar al Assad enjoy that, but it convinces no one but themselves of their legitimacy.

In the US, we are in the midst of a chaotic campaign. Joe Biden’s poor debate performance has shaken some of his Democratic supporters, hurt his fundraising, and reduced his odds against Donald Trump:

The situation is even worse in battleground states that will decide the outcome in the Electoral College. Both candidates are unpopular, but Biden is more unpopular:

This is strange. The former president gave tax breaks to the rich, responded with confusion to the COVID-19 epidemic, hired many officials who have been indicted for felonies, failed to fulfill many promises, and diminished American prestige and influence abroad. The current president has presided over a dramatic economic recovery, provided relief to the middle class, mobilized against climate change, and made America the envy of much of the world.

However much I may disagree with the prevailing judgment about the candidates, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Biden is in serious trouble.

That could change

That could change of course. Americans could wake up and realize that Trump is more cognitively impaired than Biden. He rarely completes an intelligible sentence. No one really knows what he wants. Voters could start wondering about someone whose supporters aim to eviscerate the civil service, ban abortion and then birth control countrywide, and impose more tariffs American consumers will pay on imported goods. Or my fellow-citizens could develop a sudden aversion to someone convicted of 34 felonies and indicted on dozens of other felony counts in multiple jurisdictions. Not to mention his decades of partying with Jeffrey Epstein and underage girls.

Americans could also wake up to President Biden’s virtues. The economy has more than fully recovered from the COVID-19 recession, taxes, medical expenses, and student loan payments for middle and lower income Americans are down, and inflation is cruising to a soft landing. Pete Buttigieg gets it right:

Not many Transportation Secretaries can do this.

But the odds aren’t good

All that said, Biden is in trouble. Kamala Harris is a viable candidate. Rob Reiner has echoed George Clooney well:

We love and respect Joe Biden. We acknowledge all he has done for our country. But Democracy is facing an existential threat. We need someone younger to fight back. Joe Biden must step aside.