Day: July 20, 2024
Step aside, please
I signed on yesterday to this appeal to President Biden to step aside with colleagues from the national security/foreign policy community:
Dear Mr. President:
We write as former U.S. officials who have strongly supported your presidency and your
initiatives to strengthen U.S. foreign and national security policy. We have welcomed the
measures you have taken to promote U.S. alliances in Europe, Asia, and the Americas; to
manage relations with great powers; and to address global issues such as climate change. These
initiatives have been built on your decades-long record of support for responsible U.S.
international engagement.
We also strongly endorse your urgent call for civility in the public debate, the critical importance
of which was underscored by the recent assassination attempt on former President Trump and the
tragic loss of life in Butler, Pennsylvania. Reasoned debate is essential to America’s democracy
and global leadership, which you have long championed.
With the deepest appreciation for your many decades of inspired leadership, we strongly believe
that ongoing concerns surrounding your continued candidacy and the growing likelihood of an
electoral college victory for Donald Trump put your national security accomplishments – and our
country and your legacy – at an unacceptable level of risk. Donald Trump’s vision, approach,
and expressed intentions concerning our nation’s security are in fundamental conflict with the
values and principles for which you have stood. We also are keenly aware of the comments you
made in March 2020, in which you indicated that you viewed yourself as “a bridge” to “an entire
generation of leaders” who represent the country’s future.
We strongly believe that now is the time to pass the mantle of leadership, and we respectfully
urge you to do so.
With deepest appreciation,
Gordan Adams
Former Associate Director for National Security Programs, Office of Management and Budget,
1993-1998
J. Brian Atwood
Former Under Secretary of State, former Administrator, USAID
Rick Barton
Former Assistant Secretary of State
James Keough Bishop
U.S Ambassador (Ret)
Robert Boorstin
Former NSC Senior Director
Ralph L. Boyce, Jr.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia (2001-2004) and Thailand (2004-2008)
Peter Bradford
Former Commissioner, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Kenneth Brill
Former U.S. Ambassador
Rosa Brooks
Former Counselor to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
Scott Busby
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and former Director, National Security Council staff
Piper Campbell
Former U.S. Ambassador
Wendy J. Chamberlin
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Richard Christenson
Former Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassies in South Korea and Japan
Richard A Clarke
Former National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism
Steven Coffey
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights, Democracy, and Labor
Geoffrey Cowan
Former Director, Voice of America
Chester A. Crocker
Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Peter Eicher
Former Deputy U.S. Representative to the UN Human Rights Commission.
Mark Fitzpatrick,
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation (Acting)
Bennett Freeman
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor
Peter W Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia
Anthony W. Gambino
Former USAID Mission Director to the DR Congo
Larry Garber
Former Deputy Assistant Administrator, USAID
Jonathan S. Gration
Former U.S. Ambassador to Kenya
Holly Hammonds
Former Senior Director for International Economic Affairs, National Security and National
Economic Councils
William C Harrop
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Robert Herman
Former Member, U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff
Paul Hughes
Former Deputy Director, Humanitarian Assistance and Anti-Landmine Policy, OASD (SOLIC),
Office of Secretary of Defense, and retired US Army Colonel
Karl F. Inderfurth
former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs (1997-2001)
Thomas C. Krajeski
Former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen and to Bahrain
Anthony Lake
Former National Security Advisor
David Lambertson
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Claudio A. Lilienfeld
Former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative
Frank Loy
Former Undersecretary of State
Jamie Metzl
Former National Security Council staff, 1997-1999, Senior Coordinator for International Public
Information, U.S. State Department, 1999-2001
Diane Orentlicher
Former Deputy for War Crimes Issues, U.S. Department of State
Susan W. O’Sullivan
Former Asia Director, State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
Maria Otero
Former Undersecretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights
Ted Piccone
Former Associate Director, Policy Planning, U.S. Department of State, and former Director,
National Security Council staff
Charles L. Pritchard, Sr.
Former Ambassador and Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea;
Former Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Senior Director,
Asian Affairs, NSC
Susan Reichle
Senior Foreign Service officer (Ret), Counselor USAID (Ret)
Peter F. Romero
Former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of State
Barnett R. Rubin
Former Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (2009-2013)
David Sandalow
Former Under Secretary of Energy, former Assistant Secretary of State and former Senior
Director, National Security Council
Teresita C. Schaffer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Sri Lanka, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Near
East and South Asia
Eric Schwartz
Former Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration and former NSC
Senior Director
Tod Sedgwick
Former U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia
Daniel Serwer
Former Special Envoy, U.S. Department of State
John Shattuck
Former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Rights, and Labor and former Ambassador
to the Czech Republic
David B. Shear
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense
Derek Shearer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Finland
Tara Sonenshine
Former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs
Daniel Spiegel
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva
Richard W. Teare
Former Ambassador to Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu
Richard Wilcox
Former Director, Multilateral and Humanitarian Affairs, National Security Council
E. Ashley Wills
Former Ambassador to Sri Lanka and The Maldives
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How the Democrats will win
How the Democrats will win
I am a registered Democrat. Unlike most of the media and virtually all Republicans, I believe the Democrats can and will win. This is how they will do it:
- Biden will withdraw as a candidate. Campaign contributions will balloon.
- The convention will enthusiastically select a new candidate, most likely Kamala Harris.
- She will choose as her vice president one of the younger Dems with a national security track record.
- Both will run on Biden’s economic and political record and against Trump’s unpopular platform. Or if you want the official version.
- Biden will campaign for her energetically in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
- She campaign nationally but focus extra attention on Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
- The Democratic Party will produce a first-rate get-out-the-vote campaign drawing on younger voters.
Every step will be fraught with peril, but it is doable. Ukraine and Gaza may haunt the candidate, but rarely does foreign policy decide an American election.
Biden has succeeded…
Ultimately the merits weigh heavily in favor of the Democrats. The economy is doing at least as well as under Trump. Energy production and exports are way up. Consumption and imports are happily down.
The only real demerit is persistent inflation, which is slowing. It could still reach the 2% target sometime in the fall. Unemployment is up from historic lows due to the Fed’s anti-inflation rate increases, but employment growth is still healthy. Despite Trump’s opposition, Congress is providing ample assistance to American science and industry, green technology, and Ukraine. Contrary to Trump’s assertions, violent crime is declining. So too is illegal immigration, due to Biden Administration action that may not hold up in court.
…Trump will not
Biden took action because the Republicans blocked legislation to better control the border. Many of them want to ban abortion and in vitro fertilization countrywide. Trump has said he intends to deport tens of millions of immigrants and fire tens of thousands of civil servants. Neither is feasible or desirable. Republicans defend the January 6 rioters. Two-thirds even want them pardoned. Trump is intending to give more tax breaks to rich Americans while raising taxes (via across-the-board tariffs) on people who spend rather than invest. That’s why some rich Silicon Valley types are supporting him:
Day Two
Trump has vowed to be a dictator on Day One. You don’t have to ask how he will govern on Day Two if he allowed that opportunity. Only someone prepared to ignore the will of the people would run on the Republican platform. Even after the disastrous debate and the controversy surrounding his competence since, Biden is no more than a couple of points behind Trump. Once the Biden cloud has passed, the sun will shine.
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