Day: August 3, 2024
When you are in a hole, stop digging
The world awaits retaliation against Israel for its assassinations last week. Both were relatively surgical affairs that killed the military commander of Lebanese Hizbollah in Beirut (as well as some women and children) and the political spokesman of Hamas in Tehran. Expectations for retaliation focus on a large missile and drone attack from all directions.
I doubt that. If successful, such a raid might mobilize the US to join Israel in a further escalation. That is something the Iranians don’t want.
It need not be an air raid
Israel has seemed invulnerable for decades. Its sophisticated air defenses have prevented thousands of missiles and drones from reaching population centers.
Iran and its partners might be better served to assassinate one or more major Israeli political or military figures. That would be a symmetrical response that some might argue does not justify further escalation. It would also strike fear into the hearts of every Jew in Israel. The only major Jewish figure murdered in modern Israel was Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin, killed by a Jew.
The Israelis have demonstrated that they can track and strike major figures in the capitals of their adversaries. Is it really possible that the “axis of resistance” has not developed a comparable capability inside Israel?
The capability need not necessarily be technologically sophisticated. Knives, guns, and grenades can be smuggled and murderers deployed or hired. Targets of opportunity should not be difficult to find in a small and relatively open society.
Iran has assets it doesn’t want to lose
The Iranians will decide. Hizbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis may have been relatively free to do what they wanted since October 7, but no doubt Tehran is now coordinating the retaliation.
Iran has reached nuclear threshold status. It is able to build a nuclear bomb within weeks with material in its possession. Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for an excuse to damage that capability. In April, the Israelis demonstrated their ability to reach Iran’s nuclear facilities with drones that went undetected. Iran may want to hide its hand in the retaliation, mirroring Israel’s refusal to confirm its hand in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Netanyahu wins, Israel loses
A successful assassination or two, or a successful air raid, will put the Israelis again on the spot. President Biden has already made clear to Netanyahu that the US will not back further escalation. If Netanyahu pays heed, the cycle will end. If not, it will continue.
That said, Netanyahu has already accomplished several of his own goals. The Gaza talks can go nowhere until the escalation ends. He does not want the ceasefire/prisoner exchange that Washington is insisting on. The Democrats risk a major war during the election campaign, giving advantage to Trump, whom Netanyahu favors. The crisis will enable him to stay in power at least until October, when the Knesset returns from recess, and likely beyond.
Israel is the big loser. The ferocious October 7 attack was far from an existential threat, but Netanyahu and many Israelis have characterized it as such. That justified the ferocious response in Gaza that has in turn led to the assassinations and potential war with Iran and its partners. That really is an existential threat. When you are in a hole, stop digging.
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Tunisia gets one more chance
I know Tunisia is not in the headlines, but this statement by presidential candidates struck me. They are trying to preserve what little is left of democratic norms created during the “Arab spring,” which originated in Tunisia. I wish them well, but current President Saied is not making it easy.
Our country will be undergoing an upcoming election in Tunisia during the month of October of this year, and violations have multiplied, affecting most serious candidates who are entitled to compete in the elections. These candidates are faced with restrictions with the aim of excluding them in order to clear the way for a specific candidate, which is affecting the very credibility of the process.
In light of this situation, which undermines the simplest elements of fair competition, the undersigned figures affirm that, while they may compete in the electoral process, they share common national and democratic values, as well as respect for the people as the ultimate decision-makers in choosing their representatives, and commitment to ensuring the integrity of these elections as a fundamental condition for their success. Furthermore, we emphasize the following points:
1: We denounce the arbitrary and security harassment and restrictions that have targeted many of those involved in the electoral campaigns while collecting voluntary endorsements, to the extent of arresting many election coordinators and snatching the endorsements they held. We hold the Minister of the Interior and the Secretary of State for Security responsible for this lack of neutrality and we demand the release of the detainees and the return of the endorsements that were confiscated.
2: We stress that depriving candidates running for elections of their right to obtain a criminal record card, which is essential to run for office, is a violation of a constitutional right. This practice allows for the Ministry of Interior to interfere in the electoral process and exploit the state’s agencies in an illegal manner which contradicts the most basic requirements of political and civil rights. We further stress that it could have been possible for the electoral commission to request this card directly from the Ministry of Interior to avoid such deviation and abuses.
3: We call for the immediate issuance of a Card No. 3 to all candidates and remind that deprivation of civil and political rights can only occur through a final and supplementary judicial ruling, which does not apply to the candidates.
4: We hold the electoral commission, which announced full jurisdiction over this process, responsible for complicating the procedures and conditions, contrary to the applicable texts and electoral law, in addition to the serious violations recorded and the suspicious silence that accompanied them in the past days despite the cries of alarm and denunciation raised by many candidates. It considers that this unjustified silence from the commission amounts to collusion with a hidden agenda aimed at turning the electoral race into a farce and a crime against the Tunisian people.
5: We call on the electoral commission to extend the period for collecting endorsements, in respect of the electoral calendar, considering that the provision of endorsements to candidates did not effectively begin until July 10. The commission must also ensure the freedom of citizens to endorse any candidate while respecting their personal data, away from intimidation and coercion.
6: All Tunisian media outlets are urged to fulfill their role in informing and discussing electoral programs and organizing debates among candidates in a spirit of objectivity, fairness, and equal opportunities. Public media, funded by taxpayers’ money, is required to move away from being a presidential media organ by opening platforms both centrally and regionally in an atmosphere of freedom, independence, and equality, while respecting professional ethics and the public’s right to access reliable information pertaining to all candidates.
7: The administrative court is called upon to fulfill its historical role in light of the deliberate absence of the constitutional court, in order to avoid any unilateral interpretations of the constitution and the applicable laws that may align with the desires of some to exclude most serious candidates in favor of a specific candidate.
8: We call on the Tunisian judiciary to uphold justice and fairness and to operate with independence without any political pressure, and to allow individuals imprisoned in political cases their constitutional right to run for elections. We emphasize that the Tunisian people alone have the authority to exclude any candidate from the race, and this should be done through the ballot boxes.
9: We call for the neutralization of the administration and the prohibition of using state institutions in general, and particularly the posts of mayors, local officials, and governors, to gather endorsements for a specific candidate and to be utilized in any electoral campaign.
10: We call on the military and security institutions to fulfill their national duties and maintain neutrality in all matters surrounding the electoral process, in order to ensure the protection of ballot boxes from any possible manipulation, that is provided that the objective conditions for conducting fair multiparty elections are met, in which everyone can compete freely and without restrictions.
Finally, we urge the Tunisian people to exercise their citizenship and constitutional rights in endorsing and voting for any candidate they deem worthy, in freedom to choose the next president of the country, thus blocking attempts to drain the electoral scene and impose guardianship and exclusion to pave the way for a single candidate. We insist that democratic elections are the only means capable of extricating the country from its political crisis and resolving conflicts based on programs and ideas, rather than on defamation and exclusion.
We further stress that if there is a lack of minimum respect for the basic conditions for fair competition, and if there is a tendency to use official institutions to directly and blatantly influence the nomination process or future stages of the electoral process, while ensuring equality in dealing with all competitors, then we fear that the elections may turn into a mere formal play lacking any credibility, which we refuse to be a part of. This compels us to keep all civic options open to ensure the protection of the electoral process from any deviations it might encounter.
Long live Tunisia, free and proud.
Signatures:
Safi Said
Dhakir Lahidheb
Abdellatif Mekki
Imed Daimi
Ghazi Chaouachi
Kamel Akrout
Lotfi Mraihi
Mourad Massoudi
Nizar Chaari
Neji Jelloul
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