Day: October 5, 2024
No to boycott, yes to Tunisia
I’m late to publishing this appeal from the Tunisian opposition, as the election is tomorrow. But there is still time to go vote:
After five years of President Kais Saied’s term, including three years of absolute and individual rule, and after an objective assessment of this period in which Tunisia has experienced its worst conditions since independence—marked by the sharp decline in citizens’ purchasing power, the increase in poverty from 23% to 33% according to official figures, the exacerbation of daily hardships in areas such as transportation, healthcare, water and electricity shortages, and the loss of essential goods like food and medicine, and mounting internal and external debt.
After three years of systematic destruction and dismantling of constitutional institutions that protect the state from disintegration and chaos, and safeguard citizens’ rights.
In the face of the current president’s, Kais Saied’s, inability to solve the economic and social problems, his failure in projects such as penal settlements and recovered funds allegedly meant for poor regions, his failed health cities initiative (Kairouan, Kasserine, and Sidi Bouzid), and the failure of his community enterprises to create jobs for the unemployed, which instead became a waste of public funds.
After he has monopolized all powers in the country since July 25, 2021, imprisoning most of his opponents from various political factions, mistreating them and their families, and attempting to impose a policy of silencing dissent by prosecuting all voices calling for freedom, democracy, respect for the constitution, and the law—politicians, judges, lawyers, journalists, unionists, bloggers, and ordinary citizens under the infamous Decree 54.
After the Electoral Commission rejected most candidacy files with unreasonable and arbitrary conditions, and after the Commission refused to comply with decisions of the Administrative Court’s General Assembly, which cannot be appealed, that ordered the acceptance of the appeals from candidates Mondher Zenaidi, Abdellatif Mekki, and Imed Daimi and required the Commission to include them on the list of presidential candidates.
Law professors, civil society components including organizations, associations, parties, and national figures, have unanimously agreed that the stance of the Electoral Commission constitutes a scandal and a reprehensible act punishable by law as it undermines the state of institutions and eliminates the last bastion protecting rights and freedoms, namely the judiciary.
Despite Kais Saied’s insistence on ruling, his pressure, and intimidation of judges to exclude serious competitors from the electoral race, and prosecuting them using a non-independent and non-neutral Electoral Commission fully under his command.
After observing that candidate Ayachi Zammal remains in the race for the October 6 election,
And given the risk that boycotting the elections could lead to the continuation of the current situation, worsening from bad to worse, and the possibility of the state’s collapse by renewing the current president for another five years,
And following in-depth consultations and a realistic assessment of the current situation and available options, we concluded that Ayachi Zammal is the only remaining viable option among the accepted candidates, in the hope of pulling the country out of its current predicament and freeing it from the nightmare of authoritarianism and populism.
In order to save our country before it’s too late, by peaceful means and through the ballot box,
We, the undersigned, declare:
First: We call on all Tunisians to seize the opportunity for peaceful change by participating in the elections in large numbers and not to heed the calls for a boycott, which only serve the current president whose popularity has recently plummeted to such an extent that some polls indicate he may not even pass the first round.
Second: We call for a massive vote in favor of Ayachi Zammal, after his commitment to turn the page on the past, release all political prisoners, restore state institutions, guarantee the independence of the judiciary, and restore Tunisia’s standing in the international community.
Third: We call on all presidential candidates who continue to be excluded from the race to urge their supporters to vote for Ayachi Zammal as a means of saving the country.
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A Balkans agenda for the lame duck
We are entering the final stretch before the US election. That means a lame duck period for lower priority parts of the world like the Balkans until January 20. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump is likely to say anything about the region before November 5. Even after Inauguration Day it will be some time before the new administration focuses on the Balkans.
We can guess their views
Harris’ views on the Balkans are unknown. But she has spent a career prosecuting criminals and defending equal rights. That likely tells you something about her attitude toward corruption and ethnonationalism. Trump is a corrupt white supremacist who tried to partition Kosovo while in the White House. If elected, he will no doubt empower Ric Grenell or his doppelganger to try again in Kosovo and Bosnia. Serbia has leverage on Trump. Jared Kushner has been looking for investment opportunities there.
What should the people at the State Department and in the White House do in this lame duck period? They should seek to correct the mistakes of the last three years, which have produced mainly diplomatic failure in the Balkans. The Biden Administration mistakenly focused on creating a statutory Association of Serb Majority Municipalities in Kosovo. In Bosnia, it rightly sought to disempower ethnonationalist politicians, but it succeeded mainly with Bosniaks. Those priorities condemned Biden’s Balkan policies to strategic defeat. They also alienated Kosovars and Bosniaks, America’s best friends in the region.
Here are a few ideas to correct course. Assuming that Harris will be elected, as I fondly hope, these thoughts aim to reduce the sway of ethnic nationalism. They would also increase the functionality of governance in still-fragile Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Some ideas
- Consult with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti on a joint plan to establish beyond doubt his country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This should include an end to Belgrade intimidation of Serbs who join Kosovo security institutions and wider international recognition.
- Adopt as the official US stance conditional support for a nongovernmental Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. The municipalities themselves should form this Association consistent with the Kosovo constitution. The conditions should include Belgrade fulfillment of its obligations under the agreement in which Pristina agreed to the Association.
- Tell Belgrade publicly that it needs to produce accountability for the Serbian government malfeasance of last year. That includes the kidnapping of Kosovo police, rioting against KFOR, and the Banjska terrorist plot.
- Stop the bad-mouthing of Serbian environmentalists who oppose the Rio Tinto lithium plant. Start publicly criticizing corruption and growing autocracy in Belgrade.
- End the Bosnia High Representative’s intervention to reverse the European Court of Human Rights ruling in the Kovacevic case. The ECHR ruling promises a big step in reducing ethnic nationalist control of state institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Develop criminal charges in the US against the leading Serb and Croat advocates (Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic) of ethnonational division in Bosnia.
There are some tall orders in this list. But the failure of three years of misguided US and EU diplomatic efforts suggests a dramatic turn is needed.
The resistance will be strong
Serbia’s President Vucic is committed to the “Serbian world” goal of governing Serbs in neighboring countries. He has succeeded in Montenegro. The government in Podgorica is under Serbia’s thumb. In Bosnia and Kosovo, only de facto partition can deliver success to Serbia. Belgrade will resist all the above moves, as will their proxies in the neighboring countries.
Belgrade is at risk of falling irreversibly under the influence of Russia and China. The US needs to counter that influence with sticks as well as carrots. The carrots only appeasement approach has failed. Here is the result:
The Americans will be far more effective at all of this if the EU and UK will act in tandem. The UK will likely follow a strong US lead. The EU may not follow right away, That makes another task for the lame duck interval: getting Brussels on board.
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