Day: October 11, 2024
Israel is its own existential threat
Last October’s Hamas attack on Israel was horrendous. It frightened Israelis more than any other single incident for decades. The numbers of Israelis killed were greater than those killed in the five years of the second Intifada. Hamas and its partners took more than 250 hostages to Gaza, more than 70 of whom are now dead. Several thousand Hamas fighters entered Israel in a well-rehearsed attack that Israeli intelligence operatives detected. Their superiors paid little attention.
But October 7, 2023 was not an existential threat to the Israeli state. Israeli citizens, both Jewish and Arab, responded spontaneously and quickly. The Israel Defense Force was slower and disorganized. It took the IDF three days to push all the Gazan fighters back into the Strip. Gazan fighters penetrated at the farthest about 15 miles into Israel. Most of the targets were much closer than that to the Gaza border:
Al Aqsa flood was not an existential threat
Hamas’ intent was to kill and capture as many Israelis as possible. The attackers were brutal and cruel. I’ve seen no evidence they cared whether their victims were Jews or Arabs, who can be difficult to distinguish. Many of the Jews came from peacenik kibbutzim near the Gaza border.
The operation likely succeeded beyond Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar’s wildest dreams. Israel’s border was penetrated as it had never been penetrated before. The attack shook public confidence in the country’s intelligence and military. The cruel killing and raping of civilians infuriated Israelis. Fear and distrust in Israel spiked. Gazans celebrated.
But the Israeli state was never in danger. It is not even clear what that means. A few thousand fighters were not going to take Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Hamas might have killed more Israelis and taken more hostages. It might have destroyed more kibbutzim. It might even have tried to hold on to territory for a few more days. None of that would have destroyed the Israeli state.
Netanyahu’s escalation is real
If last year’s attack was not an existential threat, this year’s conflict with Hezbollah and Iran is. That threat is the result of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decisions. He has ignored American and other pleas for a ceasefire and prisoner/hostage exchange in Gaza. His government also refuses to prepare for the “day after.” He prefers to continue the fight there indefinitely.
Additionally, he has widened the war to the West Bank. There both the IDF and the settlers are chasing Palestinians from their homes:
Netanyahu has also widened the war
Netanyahu has also widened the war to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran. Israel succeeded in killing and maiming thousands with its cellphone/walkietalkie attack in Lebanon. It also succeeded in assassinating Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders in both countries. Those successes far exceeded the usual tit for tat. They have led to escalation.
Iran’s large rocket and missile attack 10 days ago failed to kill Israelis or to destroy strategic assets. But it penetrated Israeli defenses and no doubt taught the Iranians more about what they need to do to succeed. Israel’s Defense Minister Gallant is now threatening a more robust response:
In contrast, our attack will be deadly, pinpoint accurate, and most importantly, surprising – they will not know what happened or how it happened. They will just see the results.
We’ll have to wait and see what this means.
Where might this end?
The spiral will be difficult to end without disaster. Hezbollah was initially an easier target than Hamas. Israel compromised the cell phones and walkietalkies its fighters and leaders use. But the ground war in Lebanon is a tougher grind, as is the continuing fight with Hamas in Gaza. The IDF has had to return repeatedly to areas in Gaza where Hamas has again popped up. Israel has lost more than 700 soldiers in the Gaza war. Another 40 or so have died in Lebanon.
Israel has already destroyed upwards of 70% of Gaza’s housing and killed more than 40,000, the Hamas Health Ministry says. Netanyahu is threatening to do in Lebanon what the IDF has already done in Gaza:
Why would Lebanese take advice from Netanyahu on their future?
The current level of destruction all but guarantees chaos in Gaza. It will do likewise in Lebanon if the war there continues.
Netanyahu aims to eradicate Hamas, upend the political system in Lebanon, and change the regime in Iran. Some in Washington have bought into those possibilities. But few who know Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran well think Israel can be the much-needed agent of change. Hamas and Hezbollah control vital social service networks that guarantee popular support. The Iranian regime has successfully resisted several popular uprisings. Bombing is notoriously ineffective at bringing about political change. It is more effective at mobilizing people to rally around the flag.
The more likely outcome
The more likely outcome of Israel’s multi-front war against its very real enemies is hatred and chaos. Hatred and chaos next door are not something Israel should be facilitating. America knows something about local resistance from Iraq and Afghanistan. Good intentions failed to counter the Taliban or bring stability to Iraq. But there withdrawal was an option. Gaza and Lebanon are Israel’s inevitable neighbors. Iran is its greatest security threat. Netanyahu has made Israel’s military success its own existential threat.
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Public servants for now and the future
Here is an interview with Patricia Thomson, former Executive Vice President of the United States Institute of Peace. She has spent most of the last ten years devoted to the School of Public Service in Juba, South Sudan.
You are the founder of the School of Public Service at the University of Juba in South Sudan. You called for its establishment more than ten years ago, and eight years ago you and I discussed its successes and challenges, Since then, South Sudan has experienced continued internal conflicts, as well as a civil war in Sudan, its northern neighbor, that has impacted South Sudan’s oil exports.
Update
Q: Please update us on what the School of Public Service has been able to accomplish. Has it been able to function effectively? How many graduates are there? Where are they working?
A: Thanks, Dan. It’s hard to believe over ten years have passed since we first began lobbying for the school in 2013. We admitted our first class in August 2015, and since then the School has continued to operate without disruption; this despite South Sudan’s ongoing conflicts and widespread economic instability. We have an eight-year track record of success, and hundreds of graduates working across the government of South Sudan, as well as with a wide-variety of international and nongovernmental organizations [IOs and NGOs].
Q: Are your graduates making a difference?
A: Yes. Not only are they leaders, they are change agents – positively impacting their organizations, as well as the thousands of people those organizations serve. In a recent poll of alumni, over 95% of respondents reported that the School gave them valuable skills that have significantly improved their ability to both manage and lead.
Looking forward
Q: Looking forward, what are the main educational priorities of the School?
A: SPS is a graduate school. We’ve designed the core program, a Master in Public Policy (MPP), for people who already have technical skills acquired through their undergraduate education and some real-world experience – teachers, engineers, financial manager, healthcare providers. We help them develop leadership, management, and policy-making skills. This has been our priority to date.
But we are now entering a new period of development (our more technically inclined staff call it SPS 2.0). During this phase our priorities include women and NGOs, two groups vital to the development of the country. We’ve already mobilized two programs. The Leadership Crucible is a year-long program for undergraduate women interested in politics and public service. The NGO Initiative is a center of learning and research that recognizes the vital role NGOs play in developing the country, as well as in providing services to its citizens.
I’m particularly excited about the NGO Initiative’s first program, the NGO Management Certificate. This year-long program for both current and prospective NGO managers enables them to continue to work while studying with us.
We are also developing specialized MPPs. So, in addition to our current degree – an MPP with a Concentration in Leadership and Management – we are mobilizing an MPP with a Concentration in Environmental Policy. We are also considering degrees in Public Finance, Education Policy, and Health Policy. I really hope to foster more cross-disciplinary collaboration at the University – the MPP with a Concentration in Environmental Policy is a collaboration between SPS and the School of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies. So…lot’s going on at SPS…
Challenges
Q: It’s been a tough decade for South Sudan. How are its challenges impacting the School?
A: Yes, it has been a tough decade. Since independence South Sudan has suffered from internal conflicts, natural disasters, and kleptocracy. Patronage systems, facilitated by easy access to oil money, probably limited violent conflict, but also diverted funds from development and camouflaged the country’s deep ethnic and political divides. Now one of the biggest issues is the impact of the war in Sudan, particularly on oil revenue.
To get oil to international markets, South Sudan is completely dependent on two pipelines running through Sudan, and one of these pipelines hasn’t been working for months. The value of the pound has plummeted, the cost-of-living has increased, and the government is struggling to pay its bills. All of this impacts the prospects for long-term peace and development.
So, what does all this mean for SPS? South Sudan has always underfunded public service. Now things are even worse. For example, public servants, including our staff, haven’t been paid for almost a year. Obviously, that impacts our ability to fulfill our mission – although I am constantly amazed by our team, who remain committed to SPS and continue to show up. Since about half of our students work in government, the funding situation also impacts enrollment. When your employer isn’t paying salaries, It’s hard to pay tuition.
Financing
Q: So how are you addressing this lack of funding for staff and for tuition?
A: We highlight the non-financial benefits of working for a university (the gravitas that comes with the position, the ability to do research and to develop emerging leaders). More importantly, we allow staff to consult or to have a second job. We are also working with the university and others to secure outside funding to supplement staff salaries, as well as to fund scholarships. Finally, we are fundraising for an endowment.
Q: An endowment? Talk more about that?
A: We are calling it the Endowment for Public Service Leadership. $2 million will cover the cost of a Professor of Public Leadership and 40 scholarships every year for 25 years. Like all endowments, the original funding will be invested. Each year, returns earned from the endowment will be withdrawn to cover the cost of the scholarships and the endowed professorship. A trust located in the United States or Europe will oversee it.
Funding the program this way has several advantages. First, the programs involved will continue to have access to reliable stable funds for the life of the endowment. Second, the funding will grow without the need for additional contributions. Finally, the endowment can be placed in reserve when necessary. For example, if classes are suspended due to an emergency, the interest that would have been spent to run the program will be left in the endowment. It will continue to grow until classes resume or the money can be re-purposed. Endowments are a well-tested funding model. But they are still unusual in much of Africa. Once proven, I hope the model will be replicated.
Q: Forty scholarships for 25 years for $2M, that’s hard to believe?
A: I know (laughter)! Two million is enough because tuition is so low, currently $1000/year. SPS offers such great value. Exchange rates are a source of much discussion here in Juba. Instead of converting dollars to pounds, I find myself converting to number of scholarships. For example, if the average salary of an expat working for an international NGO or the UN is about $110,000, that’s the equivalent of 110 SPS scholarships. The World Bank recently approved $15M for an institution-building project in South Sudan. That equates to 15,000 scholarships – 400 years worth.
School leadership
Q: You gave up your position as Dean of the School. Why did you do that? Do you still think it was a wise decision?
A: Absolutely. Dr. Anne Itto, a freedom-fighter, political party leader, and former Minister of Agriculture took over from me. When she left to represent South Sudan in the East African Legislative Assembly, Dr. Paul Atem took over. He has experience as a state minister and as an advisor to the national government. He also has a PhD in Planning from the University of South Australia.
Two alumni ably support Dr. Atem: the Deputy Dean, Elia Makur and the Registrar, Michael Nhial Mabil Koak. I continue to believe that the School of Public Service is a national institution of which South Sudan can be proud. It should be led by a South Sudanese. And I like the sound of Dean Emerita (smile).
Values
Q: Do you see South Sudan’s tribal conflicts reflected in the School and its functioning? If so, how has that been handled?
A: It hasn’t been too much of a problem, but when tribal biases do emerge, we see it as a learning opportunity. Better to address them and try to change mindsets than pretend they’re not there. We also try to manage them through the School’s culture, as reflected in our core values. We take these very seriously. They’re not just aspirations. They guide our day-to-day conduct. They are integrated into our training, evaluations, and decision-making.
One of them, teamwork, centers on a shared commitment to build the nation and to not let tribal differences become divisive The actual language of this core value is “We find strength in diversity, and unity in a shared commitment to build the nation; we do not let tribal, regional, or political differences become divisive. We also collaborate and help each other succeed.”
International community contributions
Q: How has the international community helped or hindered development of the School? What could they do to support the School?
A: Historically, we haven’t been aggressive in seeking outside support. International aid isn’t intended to be on-going, and we’ve wanted to ensure the School is self-sustaining. But as we enter this next phase, and given the economic situation, we’ll need partners. So, glad you asked.
Here’s a wish list:
- funding for the Endowment that we discussed earlier;
- scholarships for the NGO Management Certificate program;
- support for women, including funding for the Leadership Crucible;
- funding for a Legislative and Executive Leadership Center – where legislators, legislative staff, Undersecretaries, and Directors General can learn through reliable, recurring, professional training programs;
- funding for a local and state government program- something like the Bloomberg Cities Leadership Initiative; and
- support for a Center for Applied Statistics to address the country’s serious gap in statistical skills.
Support doesn’t always mean funding. Technical expertise can also be really helpful. For example, experts on-loan can help us develop our Masters in Public Finance and our MPP in Environmental Policy. The international community has amazing models that we can leverage. SPS is modeled on some of the world’s best graduate schools, including Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
Politics and public service
Q: South Sudan is rated “not free” by Freedom House. How have your educational objectives been affected by politics and less than democratic governance?
A: I believe the School is valued by South Sudan’s leaders across the political spectrum. To my knowledge, they have never interfered with our programs. Our focus is on building “technical” skills – leadership, management, policy-making – not on South Sudan’s current politics.
That being said, students often debate the current situation. During these debates, we try to get them to be forward-thinking, to draw on theory and the experiences of other countries, and to hone their critical thinking skills.
No matter who’s in charge, cadres of skilled public servants are essential to sustained peace and long‐term development. Who will implement all the provisions of the country’s peace agreements, all the initiatives included in the Revised National Development Strategy? Success requires a large number of skilled leaders to plan, budget, and manage all these efforts…for decades. Unfortunately, few leadership programs exist for public servants, and they are fragmented. Even fewer programs exist for NGO and IO staff, although they do much of the country’s development work. SPS’s mission is to fill these gaps, and to develop a strong cadre of public servants for now and the future.
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