Month: November 2024
Americans, welcome to the 4th Reich!
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
I hope I am wrong. But if Trump and his acolytes implement even 1/3 of the promises and projects he has set forth in Project 2025 and otherwise supported, the USA, as we knew it, will become a dying ember. He will sacrifice our honor, pride and principles on his transactional altar.
His isolationist foreign policy will relegate the US to a bit player to be ignored or pushed around.
Ukraine and Taiwan abandoned
Ukraine and Taiwan will be the first victims of his failure to stay resolute.
Imagine The Greatest Generation refusing to come to protect the sovereignty of European and Asian nations during World War II. Our nation would not have risen to the pinnacle of its success and power had our forefathers not accepted their responsibilities. They would have been guilty of sacrificing the lives of tens of millions of people due to sheer cowardice.
The ripple effect
Failure to back Ukraine and Taiwan will lead to further Russian encroachments. These will include Moldova, Georgia, and the Baltics. They will also affect Central Europe as well as Chinese control over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Our EU and Asian allies will lose all confidence in our nation. He will unchain Israel. The reaction by the surrounding countries will fan the flames of a regional conflict. Trump’s transactional approach will bring about another Balkan conflict leading to a Greater Serbia aligned with Russia.
Russia rescued
Putin and gang are breathing a huge sigh of relief. They are congratulating themselves for their flood of misinformation and disinformation pushing voters toward Trump. What a reversal of fortunes, just as Putin and Russia were facing economic and political disaster.
Some might welcome an end to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. But remember, that the Russia violated the terms of the Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015. Putin used that agreement as a temporary pause to relaunch his second invasion of Ukraine in 2021. Any future agreement would allow Russia to rebuild to attack not only Ukraine but also Moldova and Georgia.
The domestic agenda: (in)justice
For those more interested in Trump’s domestic agenda, read the provisions of Project 2025, which outlines his plans. They essentially would undermine the foundations of our democracy and economy.
– Perhaps the most venal proposal is to replace professional civil servants in the government with party hacks. This is the case in Russia, China, Hungary, and other authoritarian regimes. Trump will use executive authority to impose personnel in the Departments of Justice, State, and Defense as well as the FBI and National Security Agency. There will no longer be any professional objectivity. He will sacrifice to party loyalty, reminiscent of German Nazis and Russian/Chinese Communist Party control.
– Trump will use such control to persecute anyone who opposes him. These are the people he calls the “enemy within,” an oft used Nazi tactic in the 1930s and 1940s. He would go after Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, General Milley, and others. His likely pick for US Attorney General has already suggested that New York State Attorney General Trish James be sent to prison.
Trump is likely to replace Supreme Court Justice Thomas with Eileen Cannon, a judge for the District Court of Florida. She slow walked and created obstacles to Trump’s prosecution for illegal possession of classified documents. Trump may be able to walk away from his 34 cases of felony fraud as we as the charges of sexual assault. Equal justice before the law does not seem to apply to Trump.
Trump has said he will pardon those found guilty of federal crimes associated with the January 6 riot, which he fomented.
The domestic agenda: the economy
– The economy was one of the major reasons for Harris’ defeat, though the US economy out-performed all other major industrialized nations after the epidemic. The public focused however on short term inflation issues rather than the longer term picture.
The Trump economic policy will bring pain to all Americans. His tariffs will make you pay $2600 more per year for consumer goods. Not to mention the impact on our national debt.
The domestic agenda: immigration
If that doesn’t kill our economy, then his plan for mass deportations will. The immediate cost is some $80-250 billion a year, not to mention destroying labor required for agricultural fields, hospital care, and other lower level jobs. These folks also contribute to your Social Security. These costs, plus Trump tax cuts, will add trillions to the national budget and debt. How will he pay for it? Watch health, social security and education come under the hatchet! If you thought Covid was bad, wait until RFK Jr becomes Secretary of Health.
– Beware the presence of the “eminence grise” Elon Musk, whom Trump is expected to make his efficiency czar. Of course, efficiencies can and should be sought. However, with the fox in charge of the chicken coop, expect the Department of Education to be a victim, as well as Health and Welfare and Social Social Security.
– Directly related is my concern about the rise of plutocracy and the new oligarchs. Usually, we think of Russian oligarchs and their outsize influence on national politics. The Supreme Court ruling, Citizens United, empowered the ultra wealthy by allowing unlimited money to go into Political Action Committees. This directly undermines the principle of one person, one vote. With few exceptions, the oligarchs drive economic decisions without due concern to the average citizen. Musk now censors opinions on X that don’t match his views. With the high tariffs on China, his Tesla stocks will sky rocket.
The domestic agenda: society and environment
– Women, minorities and youth will be relegated to second class citizens. Women have fought back and won some abortion case issues in some states. Yet the misogyny and racism of MAGA will grow and The Handmaiden’s Tale might not be just an apocalyptic story.
– Let us not forget the environment. Trump will reverse whatever progress we have made. Air, land and water pollution will get worse, affecting our health and that of the rest of the world.
Angrier and more aggressive
Of course, I could be wrong. Trump might listen to his better angels. He might negotiate peace agreements in the Middle East and Balkans. He might actually compromise on some domestic issues and be inclusive of others.
But forgive me, if I doubt it. The doubts are based on his previous performance, which relied on divide and rule, attacking “others,” and undermining the rule of law and foundations of our government. He has gotten angrier, more aggressive, and more racist.
I, therefore conclude with a line from the Monk TV series. I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.
There will be buyer’s remorse. Americans, welcome to the Fourth Reich!
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Requiem for the world order
The post-World War II liberal order was already shaky. The past four American presidents have all contributed to undermining it. Clinton bombed Serbia without UN Security Council authorization. W mistakenly invaded Iraq in 2003. Obama neglected to nurture the 2011 Arab Spring, especially in Syria but also in Egypt. Biden gave unconditional support to an Israeli government that has violated the laws of war. Putin has pitched in with his 2003 invasion of Georgia as well as his 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine. Xi is conducting rehearsals for war with Taiwan.
Trump will bulldoze the foundations
But none of that has quite destroyed the world order. Trump will enjoy that privilege. He has already said he will cut a deal with Russia on Ukraine. The only way to do that is to stop assistance and surrender Ukrainian territory to Moscow. That will undermine NATO, even if he doesn’t withdraw from the Alliance.
Trump has no inclination to defend Taiwan. He has suggested South Korea and Japan should get their own nuclear weapons so the US can withdraw its troops. Trump will give carte blanche to Israel in Gaza and Lebanon. He will aim to reduce American troops in the Middle East, no matter what the consequences. A Trump Administration will do nothing to support democracy in the Middle East or elsewhere.
There is a big question mark on Iran. It is already a nuclear threshold state. It would need no more than weeks to obtain enough enriched uranium to make at least one nuclear weapon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is spoiling for war with Iran. Biden has tried to restrain that impulse. He made it clear the US would not support more than the tit-for-tat exchanges of the past few months.
Would Trump continue to restrain Netanyahu? Or would he extend his unconditional support to war with Iran? If he does, any remaining foundations of the world order will be in smithereens.
The man of peace
Trump keeps on repeating he wants the fighting to stop in Ukraine. He claims to be a man of peace. But peace is not something you get when you concede to aggression or when you support it. Peace in Ukraine will require more support to Kyiv. Peace in Gaza and Lebanon will require constraints on Netanyahu. Trump appears poised to do precisely the opposite.
The implications of what Trump does will be wide and deep. Conceding to Putin in Ukraine will lead to future wars. Partition of Moldova, Bosnia, and Kosovo will follow. Invasions of the Baltics and Poland could be next. Supporting Netanyahu in Gaza and Lebanon will lead to future Palestinian or Lebanese efforts like October 7.
There is precious little any of us can do about this. American presidents have enormous leeway in foreign policy. Once he dismantles the Foreign Service and the Defense Department civil service, there will be no “deep state” resistance.
The precedent
The last time the US withdrew its commitment to world order was in the 1920s and 1930s. Republican Party isolationism then prevailed over Woodrow Wilson’s commitment to the League of Nations. America Firsters waved Nazi flags at Madison Square Garden. The US clamped down on immigration and hiked tariffs. The Nazis copied American racism. World War II was one of the results.
The world order will not be the only victim of the next Trump Administration. A lot of Americans will eventually die to stem the authoritarian resurgence his election will encourage. We acted reluctantly and too late against Germany and Japan. We are likely to delay too long this time around as well. The price for “peace in our time” can be astronomical.
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Wrong and wrong, maybe wrong again?
I could of course be wrong again. But that’s the gloomy picture I am seeing on the day after an election gone wrong.
I was 100% wrong about the outcome of this election. I expected Harris to win the battleground states. She lost them. I expected her to win the popular vote by a wide margin. It’s not yet clear, but it appears she lost it.
I should have known better
I spent the last week in deep red Hall County, Georgia, doing “voter protection” for the Georgia Democratic Party. That entails monitoring paper ballot processing as well as helping adjudicate ambiguously marked ballots. I also duplicated a few dozen so that the scanner can read them. This is done in cooperation with Republicans and County election officials. Yesterday I was a poll watcher in a precinct whose voters include both a retirement community and mostly Mexican immigrants. The electoral mechanism both in the county government center and at the polling place was professional, efficient, and thus boring.
The demographics were more interesting. Hall is a county of more than 42,000 people that depends heavily on two industries. Chickens are first. Medicine is second. Both industries use large numbers of Mexican immigrants. There are not many native-born Americans feeding and slaughtering the chickens or tending the bed pans. Nor I imagine would you get on well doing construction, another thriving sector, if you didn’t speak Spanish.
By the time I got to the polling center yesterday about 11 am the early rush was over. Mid-day belonged mainly to the retirees, many of whom looked like they were patrons of the medical center. The late afternoon saw a rush of mostly younger Mexican Americans. A young US-born Mexican American poll worker provided translation whenever needed. I observed no tension of any sort between the two demographics. The mostly retired poll workers were impeccably correct and helpful to the immigrants, all of whom were US citizens. I hope they all recognized the symbiosis between the two communities.
My precinct voted more than 60% for Trump. Symbiosis doesn’t extend to the ballot box. I have no doubt about where most of the Trump and Harris votes came from.
It’s identity politics
Trump has found a way to make voting for him a question of identity. His racist dog whistles were vital to his first election. His macho man displays are vital to this second, as they shifted male votes in his direction. I find both difficult to understand, as I don’t regard white, male identity as anything more than an arbitrary classification. You could just as well call me short and old, with much more physical evidence to back the claim. I’m not proud of being white, male, short, or old.
I am proud of being an American. To me, that means having lots of individual rights and collective responsibilities. During my lifetime, I have seen the rights expanded. Younger people, Blacks, Latinos, women, and LGBTQ Americans now enjoy far more freedom than they did in my 1950s childhood. It seems to me the responsibility of white males to adjust to those changes. “All men are created equal” is not ambiguous (even if it should now read “all people”). “Make America Great Again” is a slogan that appeals to those who want to return to segregated, male-dominated, heterosexual America. I don’t share that aspiration.
I expect Trump to try to fulfill many of his promises. He made them to cater to interest groups that own him. He will try to deport large numbers of undocumented immigrants and end asylum. As President, Trump will impose more tariffs, raising the cost of living and inducing retaliation by other countries. He will fire large numbers of civil servants. His allies in Congress will try to end abortion country-wide and repeal Obamacare. They will give more tax relief to the rich and burden the middle class. Trump will welcome cryptocurrencies and try to manipulate the Federal Reserve, undermining monetary stability. His Supreme Court nominees will be people prepared to adjust their jurisprudence to his policy preferences.
I could be wrong again
As bad as I think the re-election of Trump is for America, I fear it is worse for the world. Trump will do at least some of what he has promised. We will see an end to American support for Ukraine and surrender of part of it to Putin. That will encourage Russia to try again in Moldova or the Baltics. He will withdraw American troops from South Korea and Japan, encouraging them to get their own nuclear weapons.
The Balkans, which concern many of my readers, will not be top priority. But Trump’s re-election will encourage ethnonationalists throughout the region. If Ukraine is partitioned, why shouldn’t Serbia to try to capture northern Kosovo and Republika Srpska? Why shouldn’t Kosovo join Albania? Washington might even help. War will be a real possibility. Ethnic cleansing and state collapse will follow. All the while, the Trump family will be benefiting financially from Jared Kushner’s Saudi-financed investments in Serbia and Albania.
In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will get Trump’s full support. The new Trump Administration will not restrain Israel in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon. Trump will likely encourage military confrontation with Iran. That is the only option left to deter Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Trump will try to get the Saudis to recognize Israel. They will string him along. It remains to be seen whether they will accept Netanyahu’s “less than a state” for Palestine. That proposition is essentially the continuation of the status quo: one state with unequal rights. It is what many call “apartheid.”
I could of course be wrong again. But this is the gloomy picture I am seeing on the day after an election gone wrong.
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The horse race Harris will win
Yesterday’s final Atlanta rally for Kamala Harris was as expected: enthusiastic, loud, and crowded. We couldn’t get to the section designated for voter protection workers. But we had a decent spot that we lost when Ms S fainted. If you are out in the sun for a couple of hours, drink water!
The impression she makes
I don’t know who the celebrities were who preceded the Vice President. Not my world. But Senators Ossoff and Warnock both spoke well. They know how to slice and dice thoughts into little bits that allow time for absorption and applause. And they both have good reason to hope that Georgia will go blue, as it did for them.
Harris is different. She adopts a more conversational tone. No shouting long vowels into the microphone. Her sentence structure is more elaborate. She leaves less time for the crowd to react. Harris is amiable and approachable more than authoritative. She wants your vote and lets you know it.
The horse race is still close
The press is emphasizing the closeness of the race. “Battle to the Wire in Swing States” headlines the New York Times. The Economist polling averages show a narrowing race.
But Harris has clearly improved on Biden’s odds. The Economist still shows her in the lead in the popular vote, though not in the Electoral College. Late deciders are mostly going to Harris. Women, who favor Harris by double digits, are voting early in higher numbers than men. The Democrats have a much more extensive get out the vote campaign than the Republicans. A reputed Iowa pollster shows Harris in the lead there. No one had thought it would go blue.
That’s encouraging, but I am appalled that it is still this close. Trump, as the New York Times made clear in 110 words today, is unqualified. He will be a disaster in a second term. Harris will certainly not be a disaster. She is steady, sensible, and serious. I like that.
Out on a limb
I am going to out on a limb here. Harris will certainly win the popular vote. California and New York, where Trump is anathema with many voters, guarantee that. In the Electoral College, I think Harris has a chance to win most of the known “swing” or “battleground” states. In the Times/Siena polling, she is already leading (within the margin of error) in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied while in Arizona Trump leads.
But all the polling depends on estimate of who will actually vote. That doesn’t take into account the enthusiasm factor that gets people to the polls. Will more Americans in the swing states bother voting for a candidate who behaves like Trump? Will religious people who say they share Trump’s values vote for rapist Jeffrey Epstein’s BFF?
It’s all about turnout now
The problem is that Trump voters won’t hear any bad news about him. That includes the tapes describing their hero’s sexual exploits, which include underage girls and his best friends’ wives. Fox News isn’t going to cover that. The New York Times hasn’t yet either. The video above isn’t running on network TV. I’m not even sure it would be permitted.
Trump will of course contest any election he doesn’t win. That is a story for another day. But the best antidote to his “rigged” election claims is a landslide victory in the Electoral College. That would make the post-election quarreling easier for Harris.
Now it’s all about turnout. Persuading time is over. The campaign that gets its voters to the poll wins. I think Harris has the edge there. But we’ll have to wait and see.
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