peacefare.net

He talks the talk, will he walk the walk?

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, is on a roll. His forces are leading a breakout from Idlib province that has now taken two major cities, Aleppo and Hama. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces of Bashar al Assad have retreated from both. HTS and its allies are now on the outskirts of Homs. Kurdish forces have evicted the SAA from Deir ez-Zur and environs. Other opposition forces are in the process of liberating Daraa and Suwayda south of Damascus. Once Homs falls, Damascus and the western provinces of Latakia and Tartous will be at risk. Assad is unlikely to stick around to see how they fare.

That’s the good news

Aaron Zelin, a leading expert on HTS, writes of al-Jolani’s governance in northwest Syria:

There’s nothing liberal about the polity he’s built in Idlib. They may have built institutions, but it’s still authoritarian. And he’s literally a leader above the law because technically he has no official position in the Salvation Government.

HTS is a descendant of the Islamic State of Iraq a as well as Al Qaeda. But Al-Jolani has tried for years to project a more moderate image internationally. And in recent days he has voiced and shown respect for Syria’s enormous diversity, which includes Christians of various sorts, Kurds, Shiites, Alawites and others. But there is no guarantee that he will continue in that vein once Assad is gone. Nor is political pluralism something he has practiced while governing in Idlib. Citizens there are not entirely free to criticize.

Uncertainty

Al-Jolani’s preferences are not the only uncertainty looming over Syria. Its economy is devastated. Its social fabric is in tatters. The Assad regime has been depending on income from drug trafficking. Russia and Iran (as well as its Lebanese Hezbollah allies and Shiite proxies) have been vital to the regime’s survival. Ukraine has weakened the former and Israel has battered the other. Even if they wanted to, they might not be capable of propping up Assad. Moscow has removed its warships from their base in Syria. Iran is evacuating its people.

Turkiye has been vital to HTS success. But Ankara’s primary interest in Syria is not liberating it from Assad. The Turks want the more than two million refugees it hosts to return south and Kurdish forces to keep away from its border. Turkiye may not support HTS’s desire to go all the way to Damascus.

The Americans and Gulfies are looking on in amazement. It is not clear whether they will support an HTS-led government, but there may be no better option. They don’t want Syria to break up. HTS might be the only thing capable of holding it together.

Israel will not welcome a jihadist state on its northern border. It might try to prop up Assad or an unworthy successor.

It could still go bad

HTS has had a relatively easy time of it. SAA resistance could stiffen. Infighting among rebel groups could lead to splits. The Kurds in particular will resent the Turkish proxies, who are chasing Kurdish forces and some civilians east of the Euphrates.

The Islamic State could take advantage of the chaos in Syria to re-emerge from its hiding places in the central desert.

HTS or other “opposition” atrocities against civilians could turn the population and the internationals against the liberators. After winning, HTS could return to its extremist roots. Or it could decide to take up the Palestinian cause and align with Hamas, turning off aid from the US and EU. Even without that, the internationals might fail to provide the assistance a liberated Syria will require.

Celebrate now, but prepare for later

Syrians are of course correct to celebrate now. HTS is liberating people who have been unjustly imprisoned for a decade and more. But they should also keep a keen eye on their liberators. Trading one autocrat for another, even a less pernicious one, would not be a worthy outcome.