peacefare.net

What could go wrong in 2025

The next year promises to be a challenging one, both at home and abroad. I’ll leave the prognosticating inside the US to others. Abroad I expect the new Trump Administration to disappoint in many ways.

Ukraine

Trumpians have already proposed to Russian President Putin an end to the Ukraine war along current confrontation lines. Ukraine would stay outside NATO for 20 years. The Europeans would monitor the ceasefire. But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has labeled this generous armistice offer a non-starter. The Russians want all of Ukraine, not a piece of it. They want President Zelensky out and their own puppet in. And they want a permanent bar on NATO membership for Ukraine.

It was of course a mistake for Trump to float a peace proposal even before taking power. That is by definition a moment of weakness. But Trump has never shown strength in dealing with Putin. His failure to support the Ukrainians will allow Russia to continue to gain territory. Unless Moscow suffers an economic or political collapse, the war will continue with Ukraine disadvantaged. Biden neglected to give Ukraine everything it wanted. Trump will refuse to give it everything it needs.

Middle East

That will have repercussions in other areas. Russia will retain its bases in Syria. It will use them to protect the Alawite-plurality west from alleged Damascus abuses. That will de facto partition Syria, just as Russian policy has de facto partitioned Ukraine. Trump will hesitate to lift sanctions on Syria, limiting the peace dividend to Syrians. He will withdraw the American troops, weakening the Kurds. More extreme armed groups in Syria will strengthen. Pro-democracy forces will weaken.

Trump will support the expanded Israeli role in the region. This will include security control not only over the Gaza and the West Bank, but also Lebanon south of the Litani River, the Golan Heights, Jordan, and Sinai. Israel will involve the US in an attack on Iranian nuclear sites that will succeed in setting back the program. But it will also give Tehran reason to redouble its nuclear efforts.

The Houthis will continue their attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Intensified US and Israeli bombardment will fail to dislodge them from Sanaa.

Balkans

Russia’s success in Ukraine and Syria as well as Israel’s in neighboring countries will encourage irredentist ambitions in the Balkans. Serbia will continue to look for a pretext to move into northern Kosovo, claiming Serbs there are mistreated. If Belgrade invades, NATO troops would fail to repel the Serbian army. Albania would then propose a referendum on union with Kosovo. The net result would be ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo south of the Ibar and Albanians from southern Serbia. Republika Srpska would secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina, precipitating ethnic cleansing and split of the state into three parts.

China and Taiwan

Under the influence of Elon Musk, Trump will allow Bytedance to continue to operate TikTok in the US.

But he will go through with heightened tariffs on imports from China, which will retaliate with tariffs on US goods. The resulting trade war will send the world economy into a tailspin.

Unwilling to fulfill American alliance commitments, Trump will encourage South Korea and Taiwan to get their own nuclear weapons. That will cause Beijing and Pyongyang to accelerate their own nuclear buildup, worsening the security situation in the Pacific.

What I missed

Trump will ignore the several wars in Africa. He will end US efforts to deal with climate change. He will continue to blabber about taking over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal but those ambitions are smokescreens. Trump’s real ambition is to make everything about him. He has no fear of failure because he is confident he can spin whatever happens as success. That is what he is really good at. At least half of America believes it.