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Defending against Trump’s worst moves

I’ve already said what could go wrong in 2025. I’m not inclined to change any of that. If anything, the past two weeks has confirmed much of what I said on January 3. Trump has doubled down on his stupid proposals for Greenland, Panama (where China does not operate the Canal), and Canada. That is smokescreen. He is preparing to meet Presidents Putin and Xi. Those meetings have often led to unwarranted concessions on Trump’s part. Despite rumors of Trump’s dissatisfaction with Musk and MAGA’s attacks on him, Elon remains strong. He has also moved rightwards, to open racist and sexist tropes as well as support for fascists in Europe.

We are now a mere week from Inauguration Day. The issue now is how to defend against Trump’s worst moves.

Defeat these nominees

Presidents have more leeway on foreign than most areas of domestic policy. Unless it involves foreign aid, the President can do just about anything he wants abroad. This applies in particular to the US military and national security issues in general. It is crucial that the Secretary of Defense be someone trustworthy, reliable, and honest. Trump’s nominee, Pete Hegseth, is none of those things. Republicans willing to think about the risks should also be willing to vote against him.

The same applies to Tulsi Gabbard, the nominee for Director of National Intelligence. While that job is not the most important in the intel community, she is a disaster waiting to happen. She has been a shill for Syrian President Assad and Russian President Putin. As a candidate for an intel position, she would not get even a low-level a security clearance. She certainly shouldn’t get a top level one for the government’s main coordinator of 17 intel agencies.

One domestic policy issue on which a President can have his way is prosecutions. The nominee for FBI Director, Kash Patel, has spend the last four years listing Trump opponents he wants prosecuted. He has also fantasized about Trump’s revenge in, of all things, a children’s book. He should be blocked from confirmation by any Republican Senator who believes in the rule of law.

Other Trump nominees are dangerous. Pam Bondi as Attorney General and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services are both incompetent and deluded. But both jobs are pretty well insulated by law and regulation from the worst of what they want to do. They will try to change both the laws and the regulations. It will be up to Congress and the courts to restrain their worst instincts.

Hope Rubio and Waltz prevail

I don’t like any of Trump’s nominees, but some are better than those above. Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State are within the spectrum of respectable. Both have been strong supporters of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon. Both have said they want to end the Ukraine war soon. Those wouldn’t be my positions, but they are not outlandish.

The problem is that these more respectable and knowledgeable names are not alone. Trump has also named Ric Grenell to handle Ukraine. Grenell is a failed Trump-appointed ambassador in Germany, special envoy for the Balkans, and Acting Director of National Intelligence. Trump has nominated Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel and Steve Witkoff as special envoy for the Middle East. Huckabee is an evangelical Christian and supporter of Netanyahu’s Greater Israel ambitions. Witkoff’s views on Israel don’t seem to be know. He is a New York lawyer and real estate tycoon.

I suppose in other circumstances this variety of nominees would garner praise. But there is a real risk that Waltz and Rubio are fig leaves intended to hide the junk. Grenell tried to partition Kosovo during the first Trump Administration. He will no doubt try that with Ukraine as well, if he gets a chance. None of the nominees seem prepared to rein in Israel. But Huckabee and Witkoff would be more likely than Rubio and Waltz to give Netanyahu a blank check. The portfolios of Rubio and Waltz will include relations with the Arab Gulf.

The problem from hell

Trump’s worst instincts have manifested on immigration. He has promised mass deportation. There can be no doubt that his nominees want to do it. Stephen Miller as White House deputy chief of policy and Tom Homan as border czar as have impeccable anti-immigration credentials. No one would accuse them of insincerity on the issue. But Homan has been trying to lower expectations. This is an area where law and regulation do constrain the new administration.

In the meanwhile, an intramural verbal spat has erupted between longtime MAGAtes like Steve Bannon and newcomers, especially Elon Musk. Musk and other tech giants want to keep or even increase H1B visas they use to import cheap foreign labor. Trump does likewise for his hotels and resorts. Musk and company will win this one, but the result will be an even more draconian crackdown on asylum-seekers. The MAGAtes regard them as “illegal” immigrants, though entering the US to seek asylum is legal.

The irony is that the US needs immigrants. Not only is the current labor market tight. We are not reproducing enough to grow the population at the rate needed to fund Social Security and other programs. Colleges are closing and we soon won’t have enough graduates. So while Republicans quarrel over H1Bs, the funding and personnel shortfalls get worse.

Immigration is the problem from hell because there is no political formula for doing what is needed. We need reform that will provide the person power while cracking down on real illegality.