peacefare.net

Neither nothingburger nor whopper

The 30-day fight pause agreed today between Ukraine and the US is not a nothingburger. But it isn’t a whopper either. More like a quarter-burger.

No pause is a pause until both warring parties have agreed. I imagine the Americans have good reason to hope the Russians will sign on. But it isn’t a real agreement until they do.

What else did they say?

The Ukrainians offered fulsome gratitude to President Trump, the US Congress, and Americans for their assistance. Trump and Vance had complained they hadn’t thanked the US enough.

The US says it is lifting the pause on intelligence sharing and military assistance. Administration officials are claiming neither entirely stopped.

Some Ukrainian humanitarian priorities are cited: exchange of prisoners, release of civilians, and return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children. These are not new items, and there has been sporadic progress in the past. But for Kyiv they are important.

The Americans and Ukrainians agreed to name negotiating teams for discussions aimed at an enduring peace and Ukrainian long-term security. The Ukrainians want the Europeans involved in the negotiations.

Presidents Trump and Zelensky agreed to conclude a comprehensive critical minerals agreement. This is presumably like the one they didn’t sign at the White House 10 days ago. It is supposed to expand Ukraine’s economy and “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”

What’s missing?

I don’t see anything objectionable in this statement. But it leaves out a lot. It makes no mention of Russia’s continuing occupation of Ukrainian territory. It neglects the need for security guarantees beyond the minerals agreement, which is insufficient. The statement says nothing about Russian aggression and responsibility for compensation. It does not assert American support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. It leaves the Americans free to continue excluding the Europeans from the negotiations.

Of course the parties can cover all these issues in the future. But their neglect here tells you how far the US has gone in tilting towards support for Moscow. Nothing in this statement should cause any concern there. If Putin rejects the ceasefire offer, it will betray his lack of interest, not anything in this document.

What next?

If Moscow agrees, we’ll get a 30-day pause. Both sides will try to rearm, consolidate, redeploy, resupply, and prepare for more. I imagine it will be done initially without the trappings of a real ceasefire. It can be built out in subsequent iterations if both sides agree.

The critical question is whether the Americans are really going to continue intel sharing and military assistance. They may start using them to force the Ukrainians’ hand, switching on and off on a daily or weekly basis. The Russians would no doubt take advantage of that on the battlefield, as they have in recent days.

If Trump really wants success, he’ll use any Russian hesitation to tighten the sanctions on Moscow. The Russian economy is in deep difficulty.

Tightening sanctions might have a salutary effect on Putin’s willingness to deal. But Putin has weathered them so far. And Trump shows no signs of taking advantage of the opportunity, even though he has mentioned it in public.

This agreement between the US and Ukraine may not stop the war between Russia and Ukraine. But let’s hope it stops the war between Washington and Kyiv.