Okay, but still a long way to go

Yesterday was an election day in parts of the United States. The most important races were in two deep-red Congressional districts in Florida and a state court judgeship in Wisconsin. In Florida, the Republicans won, despite heavy Democratic spending. The margins were half of what Trump had scored just five months ago. In Wisconsin, the more liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat, despite Elon Musk’s massive spending and personal campaigning.

By-elections don’t often excite the US. But the media had billed these as early referendums on the Trump Administration. The Wisconsin contest will decide the court’s balance on issues like abortion and redistricting. That could be important in the long run. The Florida races will not change the majority in the House, but they are bellwethers. They suggest a big shift away from Trump.

Break it and never fix it

Nevertheless, no one should expect big changes. Trump today will announce big tariffs. That will trigger retaliation against US exports worldwide. Musk’s firing of government workers continues, including Internal Revenue Service people who collect far more additional in taxes than they cost. The National Security adviser continues to use insecure communications. The immigration enforcement folks have admitted at least one mistaken deportation, but they are not going to try to bring the man back from El Salvador. This is the break it and never fix it Administration.

That applies also abroad. Trump has left Ukraine dangling. Kyiv has agreed to a limited ceasefire but Trump can’t get Moscow to do likewise. Encouraged by Trump’s bellicosity, Israel is breaking the ceasefire with Hamas. Greenlanders have made it clear they don’t want to be part of the US, but Trump is proceeding with planning to take over the vast ice land. Canadians have done likewise, but Trump persists.

How will this play out?

Most of my friends want to know how all this will eventually play out. The short answer is I don’t know. We seem to still be far from the kind of political upheaval that will reverse the madness. Senator Booker broke the record for speaking in the Senate yesterday, at over 25 hours denouncing the Administration. That may rally some support from a few Democrats. There will be demonstrations countrywide this Saturday, but Trump and his minions will ignore those.

Until there is a Democratic majority in at least one of the Houses of Congress, it is up to the courts to slow and block the worst of Trump’s behavior. They are doing okay. But they are expensive and slow. Their remedies are often blunt or lacking. And ultimately the supermajority of “conservatives” (that is Republican hacks) on the Supreme Court get to decide. Justices Alito and Thomas will do anything Trump wants. The other four Republican nominees are not far behind.

Diasporas are the best hope

Even the courts won’t help much with foreign policy, as the President’s powers there are vast. The best hope lies in diasporas from around the world. They have a lot of domestic influence in parts of the United States. I’m told the diaspora was responsible for getting Marco Rubio to say the right thing recently about Bosnia. That should be a lesson to Albanians, Ukrainians, Poles, Taiwanese, and others.

The key is to find a place where your diaspora can make a real difference in a House or Senate election outcome. Then find a major influencer or contributor to Republican campaigns willing to threaten to withdraw support. That may get a hearing, if you are connected in the right way. Trump is transactional. The diasporas have the potential to make transactional bargains with him.

Meanwhile, the rest of us marvel: is this the same America that once welcomed those yearning to breathe free? Or is this a revival of the 1920s and 1930s America that tried to limit immigration, raise tariffs, and isolate itself from Europe?