Last month 300,000 people turned out in Belgrade in support of a student-led campaign against government inefficiency and lack of accountability. Last Saturday the government mustered 55,000 in response. President Vucic hopes to stem a tide that has already swept away the Prime Minister. Vucic will not have forgotten the protests that brought down his mentor, Slobodan Milosevic, in 2000.
The current wave of mass demonstrations against the government started in November after a train station canopy collapsed Nis, killing 16 people. Prior anti-violence and pro-environment demonstrations had plagued the government in 2023.
The students issued an “edict” last month:
We, the students and free citizens of Serbia, gathered in the city of Niš, in a city that has witnessed new ideas and changes, in a city that has been a crossroads of history for centuries, and where freedom has always found its way, bring this edict by which we proclaim the values we are fighting for, as a pledge of the future and the state in which we want to live.
ABOUT FREEDOM
Serbia is a country of free people. Freedom is not a mercy, but a basic right inseparable from the dignity of every citizen. Freedom is the foundation of our democratic society, our laws, our speech and our thoughts.
ABOUT THE STATE
The state is the common good of all its citizens. The institutions of Serbia must serve the people and be a foundation of trust, not an instrument of the power of individuals. We stand for a state where the law represents the supreme authority and where political office means service to citizens, not privilege.
ABOUT JUSTICE
Justice is the basis of a stable society. An independent judiciary, free media and institutions must act according to the law and not under political pressure. Equality of rights must be a reality for every citizen of Serbia.
ABOUT YOUTH
Young people have shown that they are not only heirs of Serbia, but defenders of its constitution. Students, as bearers of this struggle, preserve the values on which our society should rest. The youth of Serbia is looking for a system based on effort and knowledge.
ABOUT DIGNITY
We stand for a society in which the dignity of every individual is respected. Dignity implies that no person should be put in a position of humiliation because of their views and opinions. A Serbia where experts are not underestimated and where knowledge is valued more than obedience, where young people see hope in their country.
ABOUT KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge is the foundation of the progress of any society. We are looking for a Serbia that invests in science, research, education and culture as the priorities of its development. Universities must be independent centers of excellence, not training grounds for degree-buying and political influence.
ABOUT SOLIDARITY
The roads of our cities, from Niš to Novi Sad, from Belgrade to Kragujevac, testify to the strength of national unity. This solidarity, hitherto unknown to systems based on discord, becomes our vow and our strength, which we will defend and nurture. By turning individual voices into a force for change, we proved that Serbia is not a collection of divided interests, but a community of citizens who share a vision of the future.
ABOUT THE FUTURE
Let this edict be our obligation, our promise to each other – that we will build a state that will belong to everyone, where every child will be able to dream big dreams. A country where justice and freedom will be stronger than any individual, where the government will not serve the people, but it will serve the people.
This is more vision than political roadmap. What is the theory of change? What needs to happen to satisfy the demands of the demonstrators?
Some of the opposition politicians are hoping the students will reinterpret their “no politics” pledge. The opposition wants a “technical” government to prepare the country for the next parliamentary elections. They are due in 2027 but could be held earlier. Presidential elections are also scheduled for 2027, when President Vucic’s second (and constitutionally last) term will expire. It is hard to picture Vucic sticking around for a serious technical government that would aim to eliminate election fraud and media bias. He has depended heavily on both.
Vucic has accumulated enormous informal power through patronage and abuse of state assets. He might be able to keep most of it by appointing a relatively “clean” (but pliable) prime minister now and in 2027 stepping down into the Prime Minister’s job. The first step he has already taken with the appointment this week of Đuro Macut, an endocrinologist without political experience. He might prefer amending the constitution to allow a third term, but for now he doesn’t have the votes that would require in parliament.
Vucic has weathered more than one wave of massive protests. The students have a popular vision of a more responsible and accountable Serbian government. They also have lots of people joining them in the streets. But they may have forgotten that opposition unity, US and EU support, and Milosevic’s hubris were important factors in his downfall in 2000. They need also to remember that Vucic has welcomed Trump family money to invest in Serbia. He is hoping that will protect him, at least from Washington.
The question is whether the demonstrators can assemble the forces to unseat a wily and experienced operative. Much as I wish them well, I don’t know the answer.
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