Day: April 23, 2025
Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war
I’m traveling to Kyiv this week to give presentations at the Kyiv School of Economics on preparing for post-war transition. I don’t think that is likely soon. But whenever it happens, I hope readiness for it will improve the prospects of success. I’ll also be trying to understand how Ukrainians are thinking about the war and prospects for peace. That is in preparation for the revision of my 2019 book. From War to Peace included a rudimentary discussion of Ukraine in the final chapter. For the 2027 edition, I hope to do much better. I’ve already written a chapter on the country’s long and tortured history. Now it’s time to understand its present and future.
I undertook this trip on my own initiative. Initially I thought I would try for a Fulbright. But Fulbright Ukraine was closed even before the post-January 20 evisceration of the US government. Now who knows when, or ever, Fulbright will reopen. Having liberated myself from classroom teaching, I am free to travel whenever. The doctoral students I supervise are mostly in touch via Zoom, which works better for individuals than classes. Best to just go, not wait on unknowns.
The video above is from a recent appearance of Economics Nobelist James Robinson at KSE. I doubt he is right about Ukraine lacking a national project. But that will be one of the questions I’ll be probing over the next few weeks when talking with Ukrainians.
No it’s not safe
Security is job #1. Kyiv isn’t suffering as much as some of the front line cities like Kharkiv and Kherson. But I gather there are daily/nightly barrages of drones and missiles, some of which get through.
The sky is big, as is the city. The situation is unlike Sarajevo, where you had to know where to walk so you weren’t visible to the snipers. It’s more like Tirana during its 1997 chaos. There gunfire was frequent but random (and much smaller caliber than in Kyiv). I suppose I’ll learn more when there about which areas and times are more dangerous than others. But it is best to assume nothing is safe, especially at night.
Preparations are complicated
I’ve talked with people who have been to Kyiv recently. But in a conflict zone you never know what is available and what isn’t. So I’ll try to take everything I might conceivably need. That isn’t easy if you are determined not to check bags. Best to keep it all in tow, but to assume that the bigger bag could get separated.
So pills, computer, mouse, wires, chargers, power supplies, the right plugs. Health and communications are vital. All have to fit in along with enough underwear to last at least half the stay in Kyiv. That way I won’t have to do laundry more than once. It’s cooler in Kyiv than in DC, which means a few warmer things that take up far too much room. I’ll wear the bulkier stuff.
I’ve got my powerpoint presentations in draft. Of course they’ll need changes once I get a better feel for the situation. Flexibility and adaptability are vital.
Talking with people at war
Wartime is hard and instructive. People in Kyiv have suffered through more than three years of bombardment. That’s on top of the seven years since Russia seized Crimea and invaded southeastern Ukraine. In my talks, I need to give them an opportunity to express themselves. They know better than I do what their post-war goals will be.
I’ll be doing that through what some of you will know as a “yellow sticky” exercise. I’ll ask participants to write their top priorities for after the war on yellow stickies. Then I’ll group them on a wall or whiteboard. Ukrainian priorities may differ from those I expect. So I’ll need to be mentally agile and ready to adjust my presentation appropriately.
The orange elephant in the room
The Ukrainians will wonder what’s going on in DC, which under Biden was Kyiv’s best friend. I’ll tell them what I understand:
- President Trump has aligned himself with President Putin.
- Nevertheless the American people want to send more support to Ukraine:
Robinson has it right: American politicians have taken an illiberal turn. But American popular sentiment is still pro-Ukraine. This contradiction won’t be satisfying to Ukrainians, who have suffered mightily and have good reason to be disappointed.
They may press me on why Trump supports Putin. I can imagine lots of reasons:
- personal financial gain,
- blackmail for past behavior,
- gratitude for electoral support,
- admiration for Putin’s autocratic success,
- genuine (but sorely mistaken) conviction that Russia can be weaned from alignment with China, Iran, and other US adversaries.
I suspect all have some validity. But there is precious little evidence which factor is primary and which are secondary. I think we’ll know some day. But it won’t be soon.
Post-war Ukraine
The main challenge for me is to help Ukrainians think about their country post-war. Too many countries fight wars only to be disappointed, even when they win. That has been the case for Ukraine in the many past wars conducted on its territory. This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine irreversibly on its way into the European Union. If I can contribute to that goal, my trip will be worthwhile.
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