Month: April 2025
It’s still a long road to change
I was pleased today to spend an hour and a half or so among the people at the Sylvan Theater behind the Washington Monument. The theme was “hands off.” That meant off human rights, women’s bodies, science, government workers, the economy, social security, medicare, medicaid, public lands, veterans. The list was long, the crowd was calm, and the chanting was loud. F-Elon was the sentiment. The only international issues I saw cited were tariffs and Ukraine, whose flag dotted the crowd. T
he participants were overwhelmingly white and Asian, with relatively few Blacks and Browns. I saw few teens. Most seemed in their twenties and up, including a lot of oldsters like me. I can only guess at numbers, but it seemed a lot more than the 20,000 that were expected.
Will it make a difference?
Over a thousand cities hosted comparable events today. The resistance to Trump is building. It’s been a long time since the public square has seen so many events of this sort. People are riled up. But also self-controlled. They don’t want a clash with the police. Virtually none were in the crowd today, but there were police cars nearby blocking traffic.
With any sort of normal American administration, this kind of public protest would have some impact. But this is not a normal administration. These are defiant, cruel people who are convinced of their own virtue and don’t listen to reasonable argument. The newly installed fences surrounding the White House today were appropriate. They keep ideas out and the President in. He is out of touch with those who don’t support him.
It will take a lot more to make a difference. As the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, some focus on their more vulnerable members could be useful. Maine Senator Collins and Alaska Senator Murkowski fake discomfort with Trump, but they don’t vote against him. Time to make them feel some heat.
A general strike is a possibility. I don’t think I remember one, even in the raucous civil rights/Vietnam war era. But with the economy headed into a screeching slowdown, it may make some sense. The tariffs have already made the stock market take a big bite out of retirement savings. I expect the screams about that to get louder.
The courts are crucial
For now though, the first line of opposition to the Trump Administration is in the courts. There Trump has been mostly losing. But even when he loses much damage has already been done, as with USAID. It is time for the temporary restraining orders to become permanent. And for government officials who defy the courts to be held in contempt. The Supreme Court will of course lean in Trump’s direction. They know what he wants them to do. And at least three if not four will do it no matter what.
The Republicans are threatening to impeach judges who issue broadly applicable orders. That is just grandstanding. They don’t have the 2/3rds majority in the Senate to get it done. But the threat will make some judges cautious and slow. What we need is bold and fast.
But only the November 2026 election promises change
But I don’t expect the opposition to Trump to win any big political fights this year. The President has a united and loyal party determined to do his capricious and ill-advised will. It is only the November 2026 election that promises real relief. It seems a long way off. A lot can happen in 18 months. Let’s hope at least some of it shows the American people what a colossal mistake they’ve made.
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People are not pleased but it will get worse
Hard to picture a worse reception than President Trump got for his latest tariffs. American consumers are recognizing that they are inflationary, the stock market tanked, and the rest of the world gasped. That presumably includes the penguins on Heard Island, one of at least two places subject to Trump’s tariffs where no people live.
Not good for Americans
Trump’s minions are out trying to convince Americans the tariffs will not increase prices. But they will. Domestic producers will raise their prices, because they can once the competition raises its prices. The tariffs will act as a tax on consumption, reducing disposable income and slowing the economy.
The protection for domestic producers is badly targeted from a labor perspective. Americans don’t want to work in tee shirt factories that can compete with Vietnam’s. Nor do most Americans want to pick peaches. The US is a developed country that has moved up the value chain.
The re-shoring of manufacturing jobs to America will be slow. It takes years to build serious factories. What investor, seeing how capriciously Trump behaves, would lay out a few billion just because he has announced a 10% tariff? That could disappear tomorrow. Under Biden, the American economy had already created a record number of manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing in Trump’s first term lost jobs, partly due to the COVID-19 epidemic he mismanaged.
Eighty per cent of our jobs are in services. Retaliation will hit those hard and fast.
The economy
So inflation will be up, jobs will be down. The odds of a recession are way up. The firing of tens of thousands of government workers will hit communities all across the country, not just in Washington DC.
Wait until those who own stock have a hard look at their portfolios. They will cut back on spending. This “wealth” effect will be particularly pronounced for retired people, who are required to take amounts fixed on December 31 from their retirement accounts. Unless they anticipated the downturn in the market, they’ll have to raise those amounts by selling stock worth much less than it did a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Fed will have to do what it can to moderate prices. Its only real tool is to raise interest rates, which will pinch consumers even more. Trump will rail against the Fed, but it will have to hold the line.
The rest of the world
Trump is telling people the tariffs are not a negotiating ploy. He wants them to stay for years, which is the only way they can boost domestic production. This means America’s trading partners will be retaliating hard and fast, while turning to increased trade with each other. That will give them the competition they need to enhance productivity, while American industry grows fat and lazy behind high tariff walls.
The consequences will be felt in many ways. Innovation will lag. Trump has already done enormous damage to America’s research universities and government research institutions. His erratic enforcement of immigration laws is also actively discouraging foreigners from coming to the US. Young scientists and engineers will be going for advanced education to universities in Europe, Latin America, Australia, India, and China rather than the US. It’s not only the tourism industry that will suffer from their absence. Immigrant entrepreneurs are a far higher percentage of the total than immigrants are in the population.
Is it all purposeful?
It is tempting to suggest that all this is not an accident. Trump has repeatedly shown an inclination to weaken the United States, especially in Europe. Is that the real purpose?
But I’m afraid that would give him too much credit. The tariffs and immigration policy are just dumb. He is a profoundly uneducated mercantilist and racist. But I wouldn’t say the same about the attack on the universities and research institutions. That is an effort to rid the country of people who would dare to challenge him on factual and rational grounds. He wants an America swollen with racial prejudice and isolated from the world. Half the country supported that objective in last November’s election.
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Okay, but still a long way to go
Yesterday was an election day in parts of the United States. The most important races were in two deep-red Congressional districts in Florida and a state court judgeship in Wisconsin. In Florida, the Republicans won, despite heavy Democratic spending. The margins were half of what Trump had scored just five months ago. In Wisconsin, the more liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat, despite Elon Musk’s massive spending and personal campaigning.
By-elections don’t often excite the US. But the media had billed these as early referendums on the Trump Administration. The Wisconsin contest will decide the court’s balance on issues like abortion and redistricting. That could be important in the long run. The Florida races will not change the majority in the House, but they are bellwethers. They suggest a big shift away from Trump.
Break it and never fix it
Nevertheless, no one should expect big changes. Trump today will announce big tariffs. That will trigger retaliation against US exports worldwide. Musk’s firing of government workers continues, including Internal Revenue Service people who collect far more additional in taxes than they cost. The National Security adviser continues to use insecure communications. The immigration enforcement folks have admitted at least one mistaken deportation, but they are not going to try to bring the man back from El Salvador. This is the break it and never fix it Administration.
That applies also abroad. Trump has left Ukraine dangling. Kyiv has agreed to a limited ceasefire but Trump can’t get Moscow to do likewise. Encouraged by Trump’s bellicosity, Israel is breaking the ceasefire with Hamas. Greenlanders have made it clear they don’t want to be part of the US, but Trump is proceeding with planning to take over the vast ice land. Canadians have done likewise, but Trump persists.
How will this play out?
Most of my friends want to know how all this will eventually play out. The short answer is I don’t know. We seem to still be far from the kind of political upheaval that will reverse the madness. Senator Booker broke the record for speaking in the Senate yesterday, at over 25 hours denouncing the Administration. That may rally some support from a few Democrats. There will be demonstrations countrywide this Saturday, but Trump and his minions will ignore those.
Until there is a Democratic majority in at least one of the Houses of Congress, it is up to the courts to slow and block the worst of Trump’s behavior. They are doing okay. But they are expensive and slow. Their remedies are often blunt or lacking. And ultimately the supermajority of “conservatives” (that is Republican hacks) on the Supreme Court get to decide. Justices Alito and Thomas will do anything Trump wants. The other four Republican nominees are not far behind.
Diasporas are the best hope
Even the courts won’t help much with foreign policy, as the President’s powers there are vast. The best hope lies in diasporas from around the world. They have a lot of domestic influence in parts of the United States. I’m told the diaspora was responsible for getting Marco Rubio to say the right thing recently about Bosnia. That should be a lesson to Albanians, Ukrainians, Poles, Taiwanese, and others.
The key is to find a place where your diaspora can make a real difference in a House or Senate election outcome. Then find a major influencer or contributor to Republican campaigns willing to threaten to withdraw support. That may get a hearing, if you are connected in the right way. Trump is transactional. The diasporas have the potential to make transactional bargains with him.
Meanwhile, the rest of us marvel: is this the same America that once welcomed those yearning to breathe free? Or is this a revival of the 1920s and 1930s America that tried to limit immigration, raise tariffs, and isolate itself from Europe?
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