It’s still a long road to change
I was pleased today to spend an hour and a half or so among the people at the Sylvan Theater behind the Washington Monument. The theme was “hands off.” That meant off human rights, women’s bodies, science, government workers, the economy, social security, medicare, medicaid, public lands, veterans. The list was long, the crowd was calm, and the chanting was loud. F-Elon was the sentiment. The only international issues I saw cited were tariffs and Ukraine, whose flag dotted the crowd. T
he participants were overwhelmingly white and Asian, with relatively few Blacks and Browns. I saw few teens. Most seemed in their twenties and up, including a lot of oldsters like me. I can only guess at numbers, but it seemed a lot more than the 20,000 that were expected.
Will it make a difference?
Over a thousand cities hosted comparable events today. The resistance to Trump is building. It’s been a long time since the public square has seen so many events of this sort. People are riled up. But also self-controlled. They don’t want a clash with the police. Virtually none were in the crowd today, but there were police cars nearby blocking traffic.
With any sort of normal American administration, this kind of public protest would have some impact. But this is not a normal administration. These are defiant, cruel people who are convinced of their own virtue and don’t listen to reasonable argument. The newly installed fences surrounding the White House today were appropriate. They keep ideas out and the President in. He is out of touch with those who don’t support him.
It will take a lot more to make a difference. As the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, some focus on their more vulnerable members could be useful. Maine Senator Collins and Alaska Senator Murkowski fake discomfort with Trump, but they don’t vote against him. Time to make them feel some heat.
A general strike is a possibility. I don’t think I remember one, even in the raucous civil rights/Vietnam war era. But with the economy headed into a screeching slowdown, it may make some sense. The tariffs have already made the stock market take a big bite out of retirement savings. I expect the screams about that to get louder.
The courts are crucial
For now though, the first line of opposition to the Trump Administration is in the courts. There Trump has been mostly losing. But even when he loses much damage has already been done, as with USAID. It is time for the temporary restraining orders to become permanent. And for government officials who defy the courts to be held in contempt. The Supreme Court will of course lean in Trump’s direction. They know what he wants them to do. And at least three if not four will do it no matter what.
The Republicans are threatening to impeach judges who issue broadly applicable orders. That is just grandstanding. They don’t have the 2/3rds majority in the Senate to get it done. But the threat will make some judges cautious and slow. What we need is bold and fast.
But only the November 2026 election promises change
But I don’t expect the opposition to Trump to win any big political fights this year. The President has a united and loyal party determined to do his capricious and ill-advised will. It is only the November 2026 election that promises real relief. It seems a long way off. A lot can happen in 18 months. Let’s hope at least some of it shows the American people what a colossal mistake they’ve made.
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People are not pleased but it will get worse
Hard to picture a worse reception than President Trump got for his latest tariffs. American consumers are recognizing that they are inflationary, the stock market tanked, and the rest of the world gasped. That presumably includes the penguins on Heard Island, one of at least two places subject to Trump’s tariffs where no people live.
Not good for Americans
Trump’s minions are out trying to convince Americans the tariffs will not increase prices. But they will. Domestic producers will raise their prices, because they can once the competition raises its prices. The tariffs will act as a tax on consumption, reducing disposable income and slowing the economy.
The protection for domestic producers is badly targeted from a labor perspective. Americans don’t want to work in tee shirt factories that can compete with Vietnam’s. Nor do most Americans want to pick peaches. The US is a developed country that has moved up the value chain.
The re-shoring of manufacturing jobs to America will be slow. It takes years to build serious factories. What investor, seeing how capriciously Trump behaves, would lay out a few billion just because he has announced a 10% tariff? That could disappear tomorrow. Under Biden, the American economy had already created a record number of manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing in Trump’s first term lost jobs, partly due to the COVID-19 epidemic he mismanaged.
Eighty per cent of our jobs are in services. Retaliation will hit those hard and fast.
The economy
So inflation will be up, jobs will be down. The odds of a recession are way up. The firing of tens of thousands of government workers will hit communities all across the country, not just in Washington DC.
Wait until those who own stock have a hard look at their portfolios. They will cut back on spending. This “wealth” effect will be particularly pronounced for retired people, who are required to take amounts fixed on December 31 from their retirement accounts. Unless they anticipated the downturn in the market, they’ll have to raise those amounts by selling stock worth much less than it did a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Fed will have to do what it can to moderate prices. Its only real tool is to raise interest rates, which will pinch consumers even more. Trump will rail against the Fed, but it will have to hold the line.
The rest of the world
Trump is telling people the tariffs are not a negotiating ploy. He wants them to stay for years, which is the only way they can boost domestic production. This means America’s trading partners will be retaliating hard and fast, while turning to increased trade with each other. That will give them the competition they need to enhance productivity, while American industry grows fat and lazy behind high tariff walls.
The consequences will be felt in many ways. Innovation will lag. Trump has already done enormous damage to America’s research universities and government research institutions. His erratic enforcement of immigration laws is also actively discouraging foreigners from coming to the US. Young scientists and engineers will be going for advanced education to universities in Europe, Latin America, Australia, India, and China rather than the US. It’s not only the tourism industry that will suffer from their absence. Immigrant entrepreneurs are a far higher percentage of the total than immigrants are in the population.
Is it all purposeful?
It is tempting to suggest that all this is not an accident. Trump has repeatedly shown an inclination to weaken the United States, especially in Europe. Is that the real purpose?
But I’m afraid that would give him too much credit. The tariffs and immigration policy are just dumb. He is a profoundly uneducated mercantilist and racist. But I wouldn’t say the same about the attack on the universities and research institutions. That is an effort to rid the country of people who would dare to challenge him on factual and rational grounds. He wants an America swollen with racial prejudice and isolated from the world. Half the country supported that objective in last November’s election.
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Okay, but still a long way to go
Yesterday was an election day in parts of the United States. The most important races were in two deep-red Congressional districts in Florida and a state court judgeship in Wisconsin. In Florida, the Republicans won, despite heavy Democratic spending. The margins were half of what Trump had scored just five months ago. In Wisconsin, the more liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat, despite Elon Musk’s massive spending and personal campaigning.
By-elections don’t often excite the US. But the media had billed these as early referendums on the Trump Administration. The Wisconsin contest will decide the court’s balance on issues like abortion and redistricting. That could be important in the long run. The Florida races will not change the majority in the House, but they are bellwethers. They suggest a big shift away from Trump.
Break it and never fix it
Nevertheless, no one should expect big changes. Trump today will announce big tariffs. That will trigger retaliation against US exports worldwide. Musk’s firing of government workers continues, including Internal Revenue Service people who collect far more additional in taxes than they cost. The National Security adviser continues to use insecure communications. The immigration enforcement folks have admitted at least one mistaken deportation, but they are not going to try to bring the man back from El Salvador. This is the break it and never fix it Administration.
That applies also abroad. Trump has left Ukraine dangling. Kyiv has agreed to a limited ceasefire but Trump can’t get Moscow to do likewise. Encouraged by Trump’s bellicosity, Israel is breaking the ceasefire with Hamas. Greenlanders have made it clear they don’t want to be part of the US, but Trump is proceeding with planning to take over the vast ice land. Canadians have done likewise, but Trump persists.
How will this play out?
Most of my friends want to know how all this will eventually play out. The short answer is I don’t know. We seem to still be far from the kind of political upheaval that will reverse the madness. Senator Booker broke the record for speaking in the Senate yesterday, at over 25 hours denouncing the Administration. That may rally some support from a few Democrats. There will be demonstrations countrywide this Saturday, but Trump and his minions will ignore those.
Until there is a Democratic majority in at least one of the Houses of Congress, it is up to the courts to slow and block the worst of Trump’s behavior. They are doing okay. But they are expensive and slow. Their remedies are often blunt or lacking. And ultimately the supermajority of “conservatives” (that is Republican hacks) on the Supreme Court get to decide. Justices Alito and Thomas will do anything Trump wants. The other four Republican nominees are not far behind.
Diasporas are the best hope
Even the courts won’t help much with foreign policy, as the President’s powers there are vast. The best hope lies in diasporas from around the world. They have a lot of domestic influence in parts of the United States. I’m told the diaspora was responsible for getting Marco Rubio to say the right thing recently about Bosnia. That should be a lesson to Albanians, Ukrainians, Poles, Taiwanese, and others.
The key is to find a place where your diaspora can make a real difference in a House or Senate election outcome. Then find a major influencer or contributor to Republican campaigns willing to threaten to withdraw support. That may get a hearing, if you are connected in the right way. Trump is transactional. The diasporas have the potential to make transactional bargains with him.
Meanwhile, the rest of us marvel: is this the same America that once welcomed those yearning to breathe free? Or is this a revival of the 1920s and 1930s America that tried to limit immigration, raise tariffs, and isolate itself from Europe?
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Hope is where the wild things are
My wife and I hosted a long-scheduled reunion for US Institute of Peace people last night. They were not for the most part current employees but rather people who worked there in 2005. Friday the current employees of the Institute were abruptly, but not unexpectedly, terminated.
I worked at USIP from 1998 to 2010. I left to teach at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. So my regret for what has happened is personal, not just intellectual. Caveat emptor.
A bit of history
The USIP website is now blocked, allegedly for security reasons. You can be pretty sure that isn’t true, but it means a bit of history is in order. Congress created USIP in 1984 during President Reagan’s presidency. It started life mainly as a grant and fellowship giver but evolved into a thinktank .
After the Bosnian war, it went in a new direction. We called it a “do-tank.” USIP tried to apply what had been learned through its grants, fellowships, and scholarship to real-life conflict situations. That started in the Balkans and then expanded to Iraq, Afghanistan, and in the last two decades many other places. Funding came both from direct Congressional appropriations and through the various Administrations, which would sometimes decide USIP could be helpful.
What USIP did
A few stories may be worth the telling. In about 2004, Don Hays–then the deputy High Representative in Bosnia–got the State Department to fund his effort after leaving Bosnia to help the Bosnians negotiate constitutional amendments. I don’t remember the cost, but it was well under $100,000, plus Don’s salary, which State was already committed to paying. The negotiations succeeded, but the constitutional amendments failed in the Bosnian parliament. They missed a two-thirds majority by just two votes. I think it now clear that those constitutional amendments would have vastly improved the situation in Bosnia.
After the invasion of Iraq, USIP requested and received $10 million for peacebuilding work there, focused mainly on preventing sectarian strife and helping establish rule of law. That effort aimed to tamp down a mostly Sunni rebellion against the Shia majority. USIP helped to train a network of Iraqis of all ethnicities who continue to this day to try to prevent sectarian and ethnic frictions from turning violent.
I could continue. USIP worked with amounts of money that were small in Defense Department terms to support US national security objectives in conflict zones abroad. Some of us were politically liberal and some of us were politically conservative, but we all recognized that benefits of preventing violent conflict in places the US had vital interests.
Fast forward
USIP made it through the Bush and Obama Administrations in decent shape financially, though it relied increasingly on transfers through the administration rather than direct appropriations from Congress. It also moved in 2011 to its new building at 23rd and Constitution. Its President, Richard Solomon, raised a lot of private money for the building. He also got the Navy to transfer the land to USIP.
USIP remains a non-governmental organization run by a bipartisan board appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The Administration had three ex-officio members on the Board: the Secretaries of State and Defense as well as the President of the National Defense University.
What Trump is doing
The Trump Administration now claims that the President has fired all the appointed members of the board (Democrats and Republicans, with one independent). The ex-officio members have appointed a new USIP chief executive. Courts will decide whether the Trumpkins can get away with this. But it is a dramatic departure from how USIP has been run in the past. Whether a quorum was required to fire the then acting president of the Institute is unclear.
Trump has not made clear what he intends to do with the Institute. But it won’t be surprising if he tries to close it entirely. That’s what he has done with so many vaguely similar “quangos,” that is quasi-nongovernmental organizations. Their claims to independence are offensive to the right-wing would-be autocrats who believe in the “unitary executive.” They refuse to tolerate any independent institutions, governmental or quasi-governmental. Trump will try to get his patsies on the Supreme Court to validate their views. They are also trying to limit the independence of nongovernmental institutions like law firms and universities.
Hope, or not?
I don’t have much hope for USIP’s future. I do hope its lawyers win in court and get a big settlement for its employees. But by that time the Institute will be nothing more than a shell. A future Administration could rebuild it, but not in the current political environment. Bipartisanship has gone the way of the dodo.
The baton passes now to other institutions worldwide. Europe has an Institute of Peace, as do any number of countries that mimicked USIP, to one extent or another. Hope lies wherever the restraining and suffocating writ of the Trump Administration does not extend. That’s where the wild things are.
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America made a giant mistake
The Signal chat is now the talk of DC. On it, Secretary of Defense Hegseth shared information that could have given an adversary opportunity to kill American service people. That’s all you really need to know. But it turns out that information came from an Israeli clandestine source, which compounds to damage. Signal is a commercial system not authorized for classified information. Hegseth denies it, to his discredit, but the operational information he shared was unquestionably classified.
Dumb and dumber
National Security Advisor Walz and Director of National Intelligence Gabbard compounded the sin. They lied to Congress about the contents of the chat, which has now been published by The Atlantic. Vice President Vance and President Trump claim they and their underlings did nothing wrong. These are stupid denials. Any lower-ranking official who did what Hegseth did would be courtmartialed or fired. The US Government would never again hire someone who did what he did. No one who did it would ever be hired by the US Government again. We are talking gross malfeasance here, not nuance. If he doesn’t resign, Hegseth should be fired.
Now Trump is trying to distract attention. He has announced 25% tariffs on cars. Tomorrow it will be something else. He is determined to create turmoil. It shifts the ground under his critics’ feet and prevents accountability. Almost no one has noticed Trump’s Executive Order on elections, which is intended to severely curtail voting by poor people and minorities. That’s a big win for him.
Dumbest
But the dumbest thing is the supposed ceasefire agreements in Ukraine. There Trump has promised Putin sanctions relief in exchange for an end to fighting in the Black Sea. That disadvantages the Ukrainians in two different ways. The Russians were no longer fighting in the Black Sea, as Ukrainian naval drones had chased their warships into port. Relieving them of financial sanctions is a big reward for nothing.
Trump has already given Moscow a bar on Ukrainian NATO membership and permission to hold on to occupied territory. Sanctions relief is a hat trick for Putin. He is laughing at Trump, who is playing the fool. I shouldn’t say playing. He is a fool.
The world already knows what Americans need to realize
This Administration is dumb and ill-intentioned. It is literally knocking on doors in Greenland looking for people who want to meet the Vice President and his wife. Everyone is saying a polite “no.” Denmarkers wouldn’t be so polite. In fact, it is now hard to imagine any European country that would be pleased with a high level visit from the US, other than Viktor Orban’s autocratic Hungary.
The situation isn’t much better in the Middle East. Only Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would welcome Trump with open arms. Kurkiye’s President Erdogan might like a visit, but only because it would give him the chance to roll Trump again, as he has repeatedly done in the past. Even his friendship with the Saudis has cooled. No more sword dancing. Not to mention Canada, where Trump’s offensive behavior has infuriated a normally equilibrated citizenry.
It will take more time for Americans to fathom the mistake they have made. But buyers’ remorse will set in. Unfortunately, it will only be after tens of thousands have lost their jobs, many farmers have lost their farms, inflation has ravaged the country again, leading scientists have fled for greener pastures, untold numbers have lost their livelihood and lives, and the world has lost confidence in American leadership.
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Serbia is going backwards
I received this plea today from the below-named media editors in Serbia. The issues are not new but now the situation is dire. Serbia is headed away from Europe and back to autocracy, despite the massive protests.
Dear Colleagues,
We are reaching out to you as fellow journalists, deeply concerned about the alarming escalation of attacks on independent media in Serbia. As the attached letter outlines, the Serbian government has intensified its efforts to suppress critical reporting through smear campaigns, financial and regulatory pressure, and direct threats against journalists.
In recent months, our colleagues have been subjected to harassment, physical violence, and systematic disinformation. With ongoing student protests and political instability, the environment for independent journalism is becoming increasingly hostile, and we fear for the safety of our reporters on the ground.
We urge you to review the attached letter and consider using your platform to amplify these concerns. International attention is one of the few remaining mechanisms to push back against authoritarian media suppression. By reporting on these developments and engaging with press freedom organizations, you can help ensure that journalists in Serbia are not left to face this crisis alone.
Please do not hesitate to reach out if you require additional information or would like to discuss this matter further.
Editors of Independent Serbian Media
Igor Božić, N1 Serbia
Mihailo Jovićević, website Nova.rs
Dragoljub Petrović, daily Danas
Vesna Mališić, political weekly Radar
Slobodan Georgiev, TV Nova Serbia
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