Category: Adam Friend
More pushback needed
This weekend, after winning a campaign against no serious opponents, Vladimir Putin celebrated winning his fourth term as President of Russia. With another six years leading Russia, what course will Putin follow? Given Putin’s increasingly aggressive tone since the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, will this continue with regard to Russia’s neighbors?
To explore that question, an American Enterprise Institute group of experts on post-Soviet states drafted To Have and to Hold: Putin’s Quest for Control in the Former Soviet Empire. The project focuses on six post-Soviet states that remain vulnerable to Russian influence: the Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia, Southeastern European states of Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova, and a lone state in Central Asia, Kazakhstan. The report includes two chapters on each of the six states, the first describing that nation’s importance to Russia, while the second describes the likely means by which Russia could press its interests.
On Wednesday, March 14, AEI debuted its report at an event featuring five of its authors: Leon Aron, resident scholar and director of Russian studies at AEI; Agnia Grigas of the Atlantic Council, who wrote a chapter on Estonia; Michael Kofman of the CNA Corporation and the Wilson Center, writer of a chapter on Ukraine; Mihai Popsoi of the University of Milan, author of two chapters on Moldova; and Paul Stronski from the Carnegie Endowment, whose chapter centered on Kazakhstan. Joining the authors was Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, who opened the panel by speaking to his own observations on the Russian threat to the United States and allies in Eastern Europe, with Leon Aron acting as moderator. A video recording of the event can be seen here:
Takeaways:
Russia seeks to extend its regional influence by any means possible. Despite the nearly three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Vladimir Putin views the USSR’s successor states as indisputably within Russia’s sphere of influence. Putin’s grand project is to reestablish Russian control over its former territories – anything less is inadequate. As in Ukraine, Russia approaches any state moving away from its hegemony as a Western-sponsored provocation. Though Grigas argued that Putin’s government doesn’t truly believe its own rhetoric, the effect is the same. Kofman warned that Putin still has not given up on Ukraine; he predicted the possibility of a larger Russian war against Ukraine if its attempts to manipulate politics there fail.
Russian overreach in Ukraine has hindered its influence across the region. Russia’s seizure of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 opened a new chapter in Russia’s relations with its neighbors. The increased tension between Russia and the West has soured relations with even Russia’s closest allies. Belarus, whose president Alexander Lukashenko is Putin’s closest foreign ally, has sought to carve out a moderate role between Russia and Europe. To this Putin has responded coldly, introducing restrictions on trade and passport control on Belarussian travelers to Russia. With Putin’s aggressive reputation and Russia’s economic slowdown dragging on the social contract in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Stronski suggested that their respective governments are now searching for alternatives.
When Putin cannot win subservience, he seeks to destabilize. In Moldova, which holds only small symbolic or economic importance for Putin, Russia has instead achieved its aims by fracturing the small nation politically. Russian sponsorship of select Moldovan political parties and media companies has enabled Putin to engineer a Moldova that exists in a gray zone internationally – too chaotic to be a full Russian ally, too corrupt to be an EU member. As Popsoi noted, in Putin’s eyes, cultivating weakness in Russia’s neighbors is an alternative to building international friendship. Despite legal requirements, the Eurasian Union has not stopped Russia from blocking dairy products from Belarus and dumping cheap products in Kazakhstan.
What happens in Eastern Europe also affects America. Congressman Moulton described the Russian threat to America as “very, very real,” calling AEI’s monograph “required reading” for US policymakers. In Moulton’s assessment, the American government’s measures to defend its Eastern European allies have not kept up with Russian strategies – American money is going to buy too many tanks and missiles where cybersecurity is needed. Congress has started a few clear-sighted initiatives – Moulton spoke approvingly of the bipartisan Countering Foreign Propaganda Act, in particular – but those efforts have been too much “tinkering around the edges” to be effective.
Without decisive American pushback, Russian attempts to undermine its rivals will likely only grow bolder in the near future.
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Peace picks, March 19 – March 25
- Japan’s Balancing Between Nuclear Disarmament and Deterrence | Monday, March 19 | 1:00pm – 2:30pm | Stimson Center | Register here |
Join us for the launch of Balancing Between Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament: Views from the Next Generation. This volume offers analyses by five scholars who examine the complex question of how Japan should balance between its short-term requirement for effective nuclear deterrence and its long-term desire for a nuclear-free world in the face of increasing uncertainty relating to nuclear weapons in its own neighborhood. Yuki Tatsumi leads a panel discussion of the report with its five authors: Masahiro Kurita, Fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies in the Ministry of Defense of Japan; Wakana Mukai, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of International Relations, Asia University; Masashi Murano, Research Fellow at the Okazaki Institute; Masahiro Okuda (joining via pre-recorded remarks), Ph.D. candidate at the Takushoku University Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies; and Heigo Sato, Vice President of the Institute for World Studies at Takushoku University.
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- Foreign Policy and Fragile States | Monday, March 19 | 2:00pm – 3:00pm | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register here |
Seven years into a brutal civil war in Syria, we are reminded how fragile states can lead to regional instability, cause humanitarian crises, and fall prey to extremist organizations such as ISIS. In this discussion, we’ll ask how the United States and the international community can address these national security challenges. How should U.S. assistance be prioritized and allocated? What is the difference between stabilizing a country versus nation building? How can the international community help a country like Syria? What lessons can be learned from efforts in countries, such as Nigeria and Colombia, preventing violence? And ultimately, how can we get ahead of the underlying causes of fragility that lead to and perpetuate violent conflict? Join leading experts at the United States Institute of Peace to discuss these vital questions. With Nancy Lindborg, President of the U.S. Institute of Peace; Ilan Goldenberg, Director of the Middle East Security Program at Center for a New American Security; Kimberly Kagan, Founder and President of the Institute for the Study of War. Moderated by Joshua Johnson, host of NPR’s program 1A.
This event will be live-taped for future broadcast on Public Radio International’s America Abroad and WAMU’s 1A.
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- Looking Ahead at the Next Presidential Term in Russia | Monday, March 19 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
Few doubt that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected to a fourth presidential term on March 18, but there are many questions regarding what that election outcome will mean for Russia’s future. Putin’s main competitor, Alexei Navalny, was barred from participating and has called for a boycott. While a widespread boycott is unlikely, the number of recent protests suggest that political dissatisfaction is growing among at least a well-organized minority. Many questions also remain about where the next Putin Administration will take the Russian political system, economy, and foreign policy. The Atlantic Council will host a discussion on what’s next for the Russian government and population during the new presidential term. With Dr. Anders Åslund (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council), Vladimir Kara-Murza (Chairman, Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom), Dr. Lilia Shevtsova (Associate Fellow, Chatham House), and Ambassador Alexander Vershbow (Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council); moderated by Ambassador John Herbst (Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council).
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- Charting a Path Forward for the Democratic Republic of the Congo | Tuesday, March 20 | 10:00am – 11:30am | Brookings Institution (hosted by Service Employees International Union) | Register here |
Amid rising turmoil in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), President Joseph Kabila remains in power despite a constitutional mandate calling for the end of his rule in December 2016. Although the next round of presidential and parliamentary elections is now scheduled for December of this year, and opposition leaders are gearing up for a fight, there is considerable uncertainty regarding Kabila’s real intentions. Facing numerous calls from Western leaders to step down, regional nations such as Botswana have also called attention to the rise in violence as an effect of Kabila’s corrosive hold on the DRC. The Foreign Policy program at Brookings, in collaboration with Stand With Congo, will host a discussion on the current state of the DRC as violence rises and elections are purportedly on the horizon. Panelists will include Tom Perriello, former U.S. special envoy for the African Great Lakes and Congo-Kinshasa; Omékongo Dibinga, professor at American University; and EJ Hogendoorn from the International Crisis Group. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate the conversation.
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- Challenges to Democracy in the Digital Age | Wednesday, March 21 | 9:30am – 11:00am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register here |
While the United States and the European Union have different approaches to privacy and data protection, both are critical partners to protecting freedom online. Europe and the United States have faced an escalation of hate speech, terrorist content, fake news, and misinformation online. They both encounter challenges in accessing electronic evidence for investigative purposes and in protecting personal data against cyberattacks. Join CSIS on Wednesday, March 21 for a timely conversation with H.E. Věra Jourová, EU Commissioner for Justice, Consumers, and Gender Equality, on the EU approach to the challenges democracies face in the digital age. The subsequent panel will review transatlantic efforts to countering hate speech, misinformation, and protecting personal data. Featuring Renate Nikolay, Head of Commissioner Jourová’s Cabinet; with CSIS experts James Andrew Lewis, Heather A. Conley, and Samm Sacks.
This event will be webcast live from this page.
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- Hidden Wounds: Trauma and Civilians in the Syrian Conflict | Wednesday, March 21 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register here |
Seven years of conflict in Syria have exacted an enormous human toll and led to widespread physical destruction. The psychological impact of the war, although less visible, has been just as devastating. The levels of trauma and distress impacting Syrian civilians have been staggering, with nearly 500,000 killed, half the population displaced, and more than 13 million Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance. The traumatic impact of the Syrian conflict is less often acknowledged, but could significantly impair the ability of Syrian civilians to recover and build a more peaceful future. Please join USIP and specialists from the Syrian American Medical Society, the U.S State Department and Save the Children for a panel discussion, addressing an aspect of the Syrian conflict that often receives less attention than it deserves. Featuring Catherine Bou-Maroun of the U.S. Department of State, Dr. Mohamed Khaled Hamza of the Syrian-American Medical Society, and Amy Richmond of Save the Children. The panel will be moderated by Mona Yacoubian of USIP, with opening remarks from USIP President Nancy Lindborg.
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- Transnational Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean | Wednesday, March 21 | 3:00pm – 4:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |
On March 21, Hudson Institute will host a panel to discuss transnational organized crime in Latin America. The panel will discuss a new book, Transnational Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean: From Evolving Threats and Responses to Integrated Adaptive Solutions, by Dr. Evan Ellis. The book details the interaction and evolution of various criminal entities, including powerful cartels, criminal bands, territorially-oriented gangs, groups performing intermediary functions in the international criminal economy, and groups with a focus on political or religious extremist objectives. The conversation will be moderated by Hudson Senior Fellow Ambassador Jaime Daremblum.
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- Can the Balkans Really Join the EU? | Wednesday, March 21 | 4:30pm – 6:00pm | SAIS Conflict Management Program and Center for Transatlantic Relations | Register here |
The European Union has opened the window for accession of new Balkan members starting in 2025. It is not clear when the window will close. Can the countries of the region take advantage of this opportunity? Who leads and who trails? What can be done to ensure success? This conversation features a panel of representatives from various Balkan states: Josip Brkic, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina; Vlora Citaku, Ambassador of Kosovo to the United States; Srdjan Darmanovic, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro; Djerdj Matkovic, Ambassador of Serbia to the United States; Vasko Naumovski, ambassador of Macedonia to the United States. Moderated by SAIS professor Daniel Serwer.
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Peace picks, March 12 – March 18
- Thinking the Unthinkable: War on the Korean Peninsula | Tuesday, March 13 | 9:00am – 12:00pm | Brookings Institution | Register here |
The possibility of a U.S. military strike against North Korea to prevent Pyongyang from acquiring the capability to hit the United States with a nuclear weapon has stimulated debates about North Korea’s intentions. Is Kim Jong-un’s primary goal deterrence against U.S. invasion? Or does he have a much more offensive agenda, such as the unification of the Korean Peninsula through the use of force? Analysis of North Korea’s intentions has profound implications for what policy responses are required to thwart the regime’s ambitions and get ahead of its tactical maneuvers designed to reach those goals. On March 13, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host leading U.S. experts to explore the possibility of an offensive-minded North Korea and its policy implications, and assess the humanitarian, economic, political, and logistical costs of a military conflict on the Korean peninsula. Featuring Sue Mi Terry (Senior Fellow, CSIS), Mara Karlin (Professor, Johns Hopkins SAIS), and Bruce Klingner (Senior Research Fellow, the Heritage Foundation), among others.
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- Egypt’s Private Sector In Challenging Regional Environment | Tuesday, March 13 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register here |
Egypt has embarked on a comprehensive reform package after signing a 12 billion USD loan agreement with the IMF. The government has passed laws to provide more incentives for both domestic and foreign investors, and US companies are increasing their presence in the country. At the same time, Egypt benefits from several FTA agreements with the Middle East and African countries and serves as an investment hub for multinational companies operating in the region. This panel will address the reforms achieved and those in making and discuss chances to further strengthen US-Egypt relationship. Featuring Tarek Tawfik (President, AmCham Egypt), Steve Lutes (Executive Director U.S.–Egypt Business Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce), and Dina H. Sherif (CEO & Co-Founder, Ahead of the Curve), among others.
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- Present and future dangers on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s reelection | Wednesday, March 14 | 9:00am – 10:45am | American Enterprise Institute | Register here |
On the eve of his reelection, President Vladimir Putin has the world wondering what else he may do and what the political, diplomatic, and military fallout could be. Will the near-stagnant economy, Western sanctions, and diplomatic pressure lead to a more restrained Russian foreign policy? Or will Putin continue an aggressive, interventionist track to bolster his popularity at home? If aggression against post-Soviet states is key to Putin’s search for legitimacy, which countries are most at risk? And what are the implications for US and European policy? Join AEI for the release of “To Have and to Hold: Putin’s Quest for Control in the Former Soviet Empire,” which details the military, political, economic, and social vulnerabilities of six of Russia’s neighboring countries. To mark the publication, Leon Aron (Director of Russian Studie, AEI) will be joined by Seth Moulton (Congressman for Massachusetts), followed by a panel discussion featuring Agnia Grigas (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council) and Michael Kofman (Fellow, Wilson Center), among others.
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- The Future of Asia: U.S.-Japan Cooperation in Southeast Asia and Beyond | Wednesday, March 14 | 9:15am – 10:45am | Center for American Progress | Register here |
Southeast Asia’s geopolitical profile is on the rise: It’s home to important sea lanes, the site of incredible economic growth, a landing spot for massive amounts of foreign direct investment, and a nurturing ground for a number of burgeoning democracies. Because of its achievements, potential, and geographic importance, Southeast Asia has become a natural point of cooperation between the United States and Japan based on shared values and security interests. However, cooperation in the region is becoming increasingly complex due to democratic backsliding. Now more than ever, it’s critical for the United States and Japan to strengthen their partnership in Southeast Asia to bolster the region’s stability, prosperity, and respect for democratic institutions. Join the Center for American Progress for a discussion with leading Japan-U.S.-Southeast Asia experts to discuss policy pathways the United States and Japan can take to protect democratic institutions and freedoms in Southeast Asia. Featuring Joaquin Castro (Congressman for Texas), Emma Chanlett-Avery (Specialist in Asian Affairs, Congressional Research Service), and Amy Searight (Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS), among others.
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- Violent Extremism: Historical Patterns and Precedents, Ancient and Modern | Wednesday, March 14 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Middle East Institute | Register here |
Middle Eastern history is often portrayed as a succession of empires and political orders harassed and occasionally brought down by violent opponents–usually labeled as terrorists at the time. This was true in ancient times as well as modern. And today’s violent extremist groups resurrect historical narratives and grievances to fuel contemporary conflict. How do 21st century socio-political and geopolitical trends interact with historical ethnic, sectarian, and anti-colonial narratives to fuel the rise of extremist movements? How can we understand these dynamics? How can this understanding contribute to better policy to counter violent extremism? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion on the ancient and modern dynamics of extremist transnational movements featuring Sandra Scham (author of Extremism, Ancient and Modern: Insurgency, Terror, and Empire in the Middle East). She will be joined by Paul Salem (Senior Vice President for Policy Research and Programs, MEI) and Hassan Mneimneh (Director of the Extremism and Counterterrorism Program, MEI). Charles Lister (Senior Fellow, MEI) will moderate the discussion.
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- Politics in the Maghreb: Continuity or Change? | Wednesday, March 14 | 6:00pm – 7:30pm | Brookings Institution | Register here |
Seven years after the Arab uprisings, the Maghreb Region remains in flux. Once again, Morocco has witnessed large-scale protests, as thousands in the Rif region and in Jerada have held demonstrations to express socio-economic and political grievances amid demands for change. Algeria has been the picture of continuity, but the lack of a clear successor to the ailing president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, clouds its future. Lower hydrocarbon prices has meant that the state is less able to allocate oil rents to the population to maintain stability. Even Tunisia, arguably the success story of the region, is struggling amid political squabbling and protests by marginalized Tunisian youth. The economy remains weak and the unemployment rate is high, leaving much of the country frustrated with the ongoing transition. This panel discussion will bring leading experts together to examine ongoing socio-economic and political issues in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Featuring Amel Boubekeur (Research Fellow, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales and the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris), Maâti Monjib (Patkin Visiting Fellow, Middle East Democracy and Development Project), and Larbi Sadiki (Professor, Qatar University). Adel Abdel Ghafar (Fellow, Brookings Doha Center) will moderate the discussion.
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- Journalism at War: The Evolution of Independent Reporting in Syria | Thursday, March 15 | 11:00am – 12:30pm | Middle East Institute | Register here |
Prior to the outbreak of protests in Daraa in 2011, media in Syria was state-controlled and heavily regulated. However, in the face of escalating conflict with the Assad regime, independent media outlets emerged that gave voice to Syrian journalists and civil society activists sharing information domestically and to an international audience. Although these new outlets provided hope as state authority weakened, in the seven years since the outbreak of war, journalists attempting to share their stories from within Syria face daunting challenges including uncertain security, difficulty in verifying sources and the absence of a reaction from international audiences. The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion to examine this topical issue. Rania Abouzeid (author of No Turning Back: Stories of Life, Loss, and Hope in Wartime Syria) will be joined by Ibrahim al-Assil (Syrian Activist and Scholar, MEI) and Antoun Issa (Director for Public Relations, MEI) to discuss the important role of Syria’s independent media. Uri Friedman (Staff Writer, The Atlantic) will moderate the discussion.
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- The US-Georgia Partnership | Thursday, March 15 | 2:00pm – 4:00pm | Atlantic Council & National Democratic Institute | Register here |
Since emerging from the Soviet Union as an independent state in 1991, Georgia has struggled to maintain its sovereignty in the face of separatist movements and military incursion from Russia. Still, the country has taken steps toward political reform and improved relations with Europe, the United States, and international bodies like the European Union and NATO. Georgia, together with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, were “captive nations” of the former Soviet Union; today, the three countries are still held hostage by Russian interference with their territorial integrity. As Georgia continues to work internally and externally to strengthen its ties to the West, Western powers must also do their part in forming partnerships with states in the region. Join the Atlantic Council and the National Democratic Institute for a discussion on the importance of Georgia’s path forward and the US-Georgia partnership for transatlantic security. Featuring Amy Klobuchar (Senator for Minnesota), H.E. President Giorgi Margvelashvili (Republic of Georgia), and Ambassador Paula Dobriansky (Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard’s Kennedy School), among others.
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- U.S. Leverage in South Asia | Thursday, March 15 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm | United States Institute of Peace | Register here |
Following the announcement of a new South Asia strategy in August 2017, the Trump administration has laid out significant policy goals in the region, including preventing the Taliban insurgency from winning ground in Afghanistan, deepening the U.S. strategic partnership with India, and forcing a shift in Pakistan’s security strategies towards its neighbors. Does the U.S. have the necessary leverage and influence over key policy makers in South Asia needed to accomplish its policy goals? Does the U.S. have the means to change the calculations of the major players in the region, given their own conflicting goals and priorities? Join the U.S. Institute of Peace for a forward-leaning conversation as experts discuss the future of the U.S. role in South Asia and opportunities for the U.S. to mold decisions by Afghan, Pakistani, Indian and Chinese players to best achieve American interests. Featuring Anish Goel (Senior Fellow, New America Foundation), Robert Hathaway (Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center), Tamanna Salikuddin (former Senior Advisor, U.S. State Department), and Jay Wise (Jennings Randolph Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace). Moeed Yusuf (Associate Vice President, U.S. Institute of Peace) will moderate the discussion.
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- The National Security Implications of Withdrawing from NAFTA | Friday, March 16 | 1:30pm – 3:00pm | Heritage Foundation | Register here |
Join the Heritage Foundation for a discussion on the national security repercussions of a NAFTA withdrawal and how a strong NAFTA amplifies the U.S.’s regional agenda. Featuring Ben Sasse (Senator for Nebraska), Eric Farnsworth (Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas), and Ambassador John D. Negroponte (Vice Chairman, McLarty Associates), among others.
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A race to save democracy in Venezuela
“If I’m honest to you, I don’t know if I’m going to be able to speak like this again in the near future. I don’t know if this afternoon or tomorrow they will seize some of us, silence the rest of us.” So spoke María Corina Machado, present via video conference at CSIS Headquarters. Machado, one of many Venezuelan opposition leaders threatened with prison since protests in 2014, said that the regime of Nicolás Maduro had closed off possibility of electoral route of restoring democracy in Venezuela. “Every day that Maduro stays in power cannot be counted anymore in hours, but in deaths,” she said, “Venezuelans that are killed with arms and hunger. But, at the same time, it is a growing threat for the whole region.”
Machado’s testimony underlined the urgency of developing a plan to save Venezuela, discussed in an event, “Restoring Venezuela’s Democracy and Halting the Humanitarian Disaster,” at CSIS on February 23. Joining her were Organization of American States Secretary General Luis Almagro and former Bolivian President Jorge Quiroga, along with CSIS experts Moises Rendon and Michael A. Matera, while CSIS President and CEO John J. Hamre delivered opening remarks. Watch full video of the event here:
Takeaways:
Venezuelan democracy, along with the sanctity of surrounding states, is under dire threat. The political crisis has become a humanitarian crisis, with potentially one million refugees already and hunger spreading – Venezuelan citizens having lost on average of nearly 20 pounds over the past year. Secretary General Luis Almagro confirmed the OAS’ opposition to the Maduro regime, calling on the international community to “support action to fashion a way to end the 21st-century narco-dictatorship that is Venezuela.” He welcomed Peru’s decision to disinvite Venezuela from April’s Summit of the Americas in Lima, describing the action as underscoring Maduro’s growing diplomatic isolation and furthering the fracturing of the regime. “Our mission is clear,” Almagro declared, “adopting at this hour increased pressure on the Maduro regime while simultaneously and concretely preparing for the day it falls.”
After Almagro, Jorge Quiroga emphasized the political importance of stemming the Venezuelan crisis. He described the rare confluence of political events in 2018: adding to the quadrennial convergence of elections in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil (scheduled for May, July, and October, respectively), 2018 will see two historic changes in Cuba and Venezuela. Maduro’s regime, after replacing the opposition-controlled parliament last year, has now brought forward general elections that Quiroga stated would bring about “the second full-out, full-blown Cuba in Latin America in 2018, 58 days from now.” This move leaves the international community in a race against time to pressure the Venezuelan regime to change course from their “slow-motion coup” before peaceful resolution of the crisis becomes impossible.
Almagro and Quiroga proposed a plan of immediate action. Following Almagro’s declaration of the OAS’ commitment to action in Venezuela, Quiroga detailed a plan of immediate action to be taken before the regime is able to conduct its sham elections on April 22 (which have since been delayed until May 20). In this limited time, Quiroga called for “toda la carne el asador” – that is, putting everything on the table. His plan fits under eight points (which, as a means of branding, spell out the acronym CSISMODE):
- Charter – Invoking of Article 20 of the OAS Democratic Charter before April 22 to martial “necessary diplomatic initiatives” from OAS states “to foster the restoration of democracy”.
- Sanctions – Slapping individualized sanctions on Maduro, his government, and their relatives, as well as sectoral sanctions against revenue sources for the Venezuelan government.
- ICC – Referring Maduro regime figures to face charges in the International Criminal Court, following the recent announcement of the opening of an investigation involving Venezuela.
- Seizures – Closing regime figures’ bank accounts and seize their assets in foreign countries, to be returned to the Venezuelan people.
- Migration – Creating an international program and temporary protected status to manage refugees leaving Venezuela.
- Oil – Embargoing Venezuelan oil or placing Venezuelan oil funds in an escrow account to be disbursed by the Venezuelan National Assembly.
- Diplomatic relations – Cutting relations immediately with the Maduro regime based on their credible threats to democracy.
- Expulsions – Expelling Maduro associates and assets from foreign countries and suspending Venezuelan membership of UNASUR.
Maduro must be eased toward regime change. Maria Corina Machado emphasized that there exists a “short but real window of opportunity” to compel the Maduro regime due to the erosion of three of the regime’s five pillars of support. The regime’s cashflow is running dry, popular disapproval is at 90%, and international tolerance is at a breaking point. The Venezuelan government’s survival now rests on support from the drug cartel system and the weakened loyalty of the armed forces. Machado noted prominent defections from Maduro’s government and growing strife within the military as evidence that the regime’s control is shaking.
Machado pressed that allies of democracy can bring regime change by raising the cost of ruling cliques staying in power and lowering the cost of backing down. To Almagro and Quiroga’s plan Machado added that guarantees must be established for civilian and military officials willing to support democracy, and that foreign states supporting Maduro (Russia, China, some Caribbean nations) could be incentivized to side with Venezuelan democracy. She vowed that internal opponents of Maduro would build a civilian platform with the clear objective of a democratic transition, easing the way for regime change in the shortest time possible.
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Peace picks, March 5 – March 11
- Oil in Iraq: Pathways to Enabling Better Governance | Monday, March 5 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm | Middle East Institute | Register here |
Despite setbacks from the war against ISIS, Iraq remains the world’s fourth largest producer of oil, second only to Saudi Arabia among OPEC states. However, the administration of this vital natural resource has been plagued by corruption and disputes over how revenues should be allocated to promote equitable economic growth. How can Iraq harness oil revenue to strengthen institutions, grow the economy, and empower Iraqis to rebuild their society? How are relations between Baghdad and Erbil and other sectarian tensions complicated by the “resource curse,” and what can be done to overcome it? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion examining options and priorities for improving governance in Iraq, featuring Erin Banco (investigative reporter for the Star-Ledger and NJ.com), Alan Eyre (US Department of State), Omar Al-Nidawi (Gryphon Partners), and Jean Francois Seznec (Scholar, MEI). The panel will be moderated by Randa Slim (Director of Program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, MEI). ___________________________________________________________
- Preventing Conflict to Create Pathways for Peace | Tuesday, March 6 | 9:00am – 10:30am | United States Institute of Peace | Register here |
Violent conflict today is surging after decades of relative decline. Direct deaths in war, refugee numbers, military spending, and terrorist incidents have all reached historic highs in recent years. Today, the consequences of failing to act together are alarmingly evident, and the call for urgent action has perhaps never been clearer. To answer this call, the United Nations and the World Bank Group are launching their joint study, “Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict” to share how defense, diplomacy, and development should work together to successfully keep conflict from becoming violent. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace to hear from experts on how the international community can promote better policies and programs to pave the way forward to peace. Featuring Oscar Fernandez-Taranco (Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support, United Nations), Franck Bousquet (Senior Director, Fragility, Conflict & Violence, World Bank), Deqa Hagi Yusuf (Minister of Women and Human Rights Development, Somalia), and Nancy Lindborg (President, U.S. Institute of Peace), among others.
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- Performance and Prospects for Russia’s Economy | Tuesday, March 6 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
After a difficult transition to a market-based system in the 1990s, the Russian economy experienced rapid growth into the 2000s. However, in the last few years, falling gas prices, Western sanctions and diminishing foreign investments, and a continued lack of effective structural reforms have taken a toll on the economy and the citizens of the Russian Federation. The Russian economy has been buffeted by increasing re-nationalization of enterprises and international sanctions. It remains energy-focused, and highly oligarchical. Although recovering slightly, the trajectory and sustainability of the Russian economic model is under intense scrutiny. The possibility of additional sanctions just adds to the uncertainty. This panel, entitled “Performance and Prospects for Russia’s Economy,” will explore the development of Russia’s economy, including its place in the international economic system, and its prospects for the next decade. Featuring Dr. Sergey Aleksashenko (senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings Institution), Dr. Anders Åslund (Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council), Elizaveta Osetinskaya (Fellow, University of California, Berkeley). Ambassador Clifford Bond (Former Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Coordinator for Assistance to Europe and Eurasia, US Department of State) will moderate the discussion.
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- Governor Geraldo Alckmin of São Paulo on Brazil’s Economic and Political Outlook in an Unpredictable Election Year | Wednesday, March 7 | 9:30am – 12:00pm | Wilson Center | Register here |
Elected four times to lead São Paulo, Brazil’s richest and most influential state, Governor Geraldo Alckmin is widely expected to run in October’s presidential election. This will be a second attempt to reach the Palácio do Planalto for Alckmin, who lost to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006. Despite his low polling numbers—and widespread rejection of establishment politicians—seasoned political analysts believe the governor could emerge as a strong centrist candidate backed by the middle class and the business community, and someone who—if he wins—could build the alliances needed to govern in Brazil’s coalitional political system. However, the race is highly unpredictable and will likely remain so for months. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Governor Geraldo Alckmin; speakers and panelists include Paulo Sotero (Director, Brazil Institute), Cassia Carvalho (Executive Director, Brazil-U.S. Business Council), and Roberto Simon (Director, FTI Consulting), among others.
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- The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership: Implications for Global Trade | Wednesday, March 7 | 2:00pm – 5:00pm | Wilson Center | Register here |
On March 8, representatives of eleven countries will meet in Chile to sign the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), creating a massive free trade bloc connecting 500 million people and economies with a combined GDP of over $10 trillion. Signatories include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. The current agreement includes several major economies that will have a profound influence on the future of global trade and investment. The United States withdrew from negotiations in January 2017. Join the Wilson Center to discuss the economic impact of the agreement for member and non-member countries and the future of integration of the Asia-Pacific region and the Western Hemisphere. Featuring the Honorable Carlos Pareja (Ambassador to the United States, Peru), the Honorable Ashok Kumar Mirpuri (Ambassador to the United States, Singapore), and Jeffrey J. Schott (Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics), among others.
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- Regional Cooperation in the Middle East: The Baghdad Declaration | Wednesday, March 7 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm | Middle East Institute | Register here |
Since 2014, the Middle East Institute has convened the Middle East Dialogue, a Track 1.5 initiative involving current and former officials and senior experts from across the Middle East as well as from China, Europe, Russia and the United States. These meetings focus on the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, and on the principles and architecture of a new regional cooperation framework in the Middle East. At the Dialogue’s most recent meeting in Baghdad, the group issued a consensus document outlining Good Neighborhood Principles for the Middle East. Is a new regional cooperation framework possible in today’s Middle East? What are the principles and institutional architecture that would underpin this framework? What are the obstacles? What are realistic interim confidence-building measures? How can the international community assist in moving this process forward? MEI is pleased to host a panel discussion involving participants from the Middle East Dialogue. Featuring Naufel Alhassan (Deputy Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister of Iraq), Abdallah Al-Dardari (Senior Advisor on Reconstruction in the MENA, World Bank), and Paul Salem (Senior Vice President for Policy Research and Programs, MEI). Randa Slim (Director of Program on Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues, MEI) will moderate.
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- How Film Captures the Roles of Women in War and Peace | Thursday, March 8 | 9:30am – 12:00pm | United States Institute of Peace | Register here |
Ten years ago, the film Pray the Devil Back to Hell premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, where it won the award for Best Documentary for its powerful depiction of the nonviolent women’s movement that helped bring an end to Liberia’s bloody civil war. Since its release, producers and directors have taken up the challenge to tell the stories of the often-invisible lives of women in conflict. These films have brought forward women’s critical voices to the stories of war and peace, and amplified the global agenda of Women, Peace and Security. Join USIP on International Women’s Day to discuss how film has been an innovative tool for translating policy frameworks into social change. This event will bring together the worlds of film and policy to celebrate the progress that has been made in advancing women’s roles in peace and security, and spreading their stories. Featuring Abigail Disney (Filmmaker & President and CEO, Fork Films), Michelle Bekkering (Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator, USAID), and Suhad Babaa (Executive Director, Just Vision), among others.
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- Japan-Korea Relations 20 Years After the Kim-Obuchi Summit | Thursday, March 8 | 2:00pm – 7:00pm | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register here |
Nearly twenty years ago, the leaders of Japan and South Korea raised hopes for “a new Japan-Korea partnership for the twenty-first century,” backed by an action plan to foster broader cooperation and closer people-to-people ties. Although progress has been made, disagreements over history have stymied the desired transformation in their relationship, even as North Korean nuclear threats grow. This half-day conference—featuring scholars and former officials of that time from Japan, South Korea, and the United States—combines a look back with a look ahead, reflecting on what types of polices and initiatives have succeeded or failed since 1998 and why. Speakers and panelists include Douglas H. Paal (Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Carol Gluck (George Sansom Professor of History, Columbia University), and James Zumwalt (CEO, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA), among others.
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- US-Sudan Relations: What’s Next? | Thursday, March 8 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
Following the Trump administration’s October 2017 decision to lift most economic sanctions against Sudan, the Atlantic Council sent task force members to Sudan in January 2018—the third delegation in two years—to conduct research in three critical, related areas: governance and political reform; economic reform and impediments to investment; and prospects for greater cultural engagement. The resulting issue briefs put forward recommendations for the United States and Sudan to continue their positive engagement in a way that serves US interests but also supports peace, security, and inclusive governance for the Sudanese people. Featuring Dr. J. Peter Pham (Vice President for Research and Regional Initiatives, Atlantic Council), Ambassador Tim Carney (Former US Ambassador to Sudan), and Dr. Jeffrey Herbst (Co-Author, Making Africa Work & former CEO of the Newseum), among others. Kelsey Lilley (Associate Director, Africa Center, Atlantic Council) will moderate the discussion.
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- Anti-Corruption and the Fight for Democracy in Russia | Friday, March 9 | 10:00am – 11:30am | Wilson Center (co-organized with Freedom House) | Register here |
Russian activists Nikita Kulachenkov and Mikhail Maglov will talk about their work exposing corruption in Russia from abroad and the impact that these investigations have on the Kremlin’s legitimacy. They will also discuss how illicit financial flows from Russia, including real state and luxury goods, reach the West and what can be done to stop them. Featuring Charles Davidson (Executive Director of the Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute), Nikita Kulachenkov (Forensic Investigator, Anti-Corruption Foundation), and Mikhail Maglov (Former Activist of “Solidarnost”).
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Peace picks, February 26 – March 4
- The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy | Monday, February 26 | 12:00pm – 2:00pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
Earlier this month, the Pentagon released its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which described an increasingly challenging international security environment and a need for the United States to strengthen its nuclear posture to deter strategic attacks on itself and its allies. This conversation will explore the US nuclear posture; assess the costs and benefits of changes to US nuclear policy under the Trump Administration; and analyze how America’s nuclear weapons contribute to its broader national security goals. The event will also feature the launch of Dr. Kroenig’s new book titled “The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy.” A conversation with: Matthew Kroenig (Atlantic Council), Adm. Cecil D. Haney (United States Strategic Command, Ret.), Rebecca Hersman (Center for Strategic and International Studies), James N. Miller (Harvard University); moderated by Thom Shanker (New York Times).
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- History of Modern Public Diplomacy: The Origins of the Founding of the United States Information Agency (USIA) | Monday, February 26 | 1:00pm – 2:30pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) | Register here |
The United States Information Agency (USIA) took the lead in the war of ideas between the United States and the Soviet Union following World War II. Although USIA no longer exists, it is important to reminisce about the origins of its founding and how it has played a role in modern public diplomacy. The lessons of the past should be understood and presented for the benefit of those on the future front lines of U.S. public diplomacy. CSIS is hosting a public event to examine USIA’s experience in the 1950s and 1960s, and will build upon previous conversations and a commentary that talked about the lessons learnt from the agency’s merger with the U.S. State Department in the 1990s. Featuring Nicholas J. Cull (University of Southern California), Caitlin E. Schindler (Institute of World Politics), Gregory M. Tomlin (United States Military Academy at West Point), and Elizabeth “Betsy” Whitaker (George Washington University and Georgetown University), with CSIS expert Daniel F. Runde (Director, Project on Prosperity and Development).
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- Nuclear Risks in Northeast Asia | Tuesday, February 27 | 10:30am – 2:00pm | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register here |
China’s rise and North Korea’s rapidly developing nuclear and missile programs have catalyzed a debate about whether the United States should rely more heavily on nuclear weapons in its efforts to protect the security of Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, civilian nuclear energy programs risk the stockpiling of plutonium. South Korea and China are considering programs to extract plutonium from used nuclear fuel, as Japan wrestles with the realization that it is unable to make fresh fuel from the plutonium it has already extracted. Join Carnegie for a discussion, hosted jointly with Nagasaki University, of the most urgent nuclear challenges facing international actors in this increasingly tense region. Featuring two panel discussions: “Extended Deterrence in North East Asia,” with Rebecca Hersman (Project on Nuclear Issues, CSIS), Jina Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses), Jon Wolfsthal (Nuclear Policy Program, CSIS), Fumihiko Yoshida (Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University), and Toby Dalton (Nuclear Policy Program, CSIS); and “Security Risks of Civilian Plutonium Use in North East Asia,” with Thomas Countryman (U.S. Department of State), Se Young Jang (Nuclear Policy Program, CSIS), Victor Reis (U.S. Department of Energy), Tatsu Suzuki (Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University), and James M. Acton (Nuclear Policy Program, CSIS). Opening remarks by Susumu Shirabe (Nagasaki University) and James Acton.
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- Trump’s Trade Policy in Asia: A One-Year Review | Wednesday, February 28 | 10:00am – 11:30am | Brookings Institution | Register here |
On February 28, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and the U.S.-Japan Research Institute will host a panel of experts to assess the drivers and outcomes of Trump’s trade policy in Asia over the first year of his administration. They will discuss how Japan and the United States can deepen trade and investment ties despite the American withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); the chances of a successful renegotiation of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) and its impact on broader U.S.-South Korea relations; and whether the administration’s condemnation of predatory economics in the region and use of unilateral trade measures will effectively deter Chinese mercantilism or trigger trade friction. The discussion will by moderated by Mirya Solís (Co-Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings), featuring Meredith Miller (Senior Vice President, Albright Stonebridge Group), Eswar Prasad (Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Devleopment at Brookings), Shujiro Urata (Dean and Professor, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies at Waseda University), and Jeffrey J. Schott (Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics).
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- Reevaluating U.S. Security Assistance to the Middle East | Thursday, March 1 | 1:30pm – 3:30pm | Middle East Institute | Register here |
Since 9/11, American security strategy has focused on building the military capabilities of global allies in order to advance shared goals and address joint threats. In the Middle East, the results of this approach have been mixed at best. Frustration over U.S. security assistance to the region has grown in Washington, as funding and arms transfers to various state and non-state partners have led to unintended consequences, prompting the Trump administration to reevaluate U.S. aid to Egypt, Pakistan, and the Palestinians. The Middle East Institute (MEI) will convene a panel of experts to examine these key issues, with a keynote address by Lee Litzenberger (senior advisor, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs at the U.S. Department of State) with Amb. (ret.) Wendy Chamberlin (President, MEI). The keynote will be followed by a panel discussion moderated by Missy Ryan (Washington Post) and featuring Michele Dunne (CEIP), Mara Karlin (SAIS and the Brookings Institution), Justin Reynolds (Cohen Group), and Bilal Y. Saab (MEI).
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- Afghanistan: Assessing Progress and Prospects for Regional Connectivity | Thursday, March 1 | 3:30pm – 5:00pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
Please join the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center for a discussion with Dr. Mohammad H. Qayoumi where he will discuss how Afghanistan can play a pivotal role in integrating the economies of Central Asia and South Asia. Dr. Qayoumi will provide an overview of the progress achieved in the past three years in the areas of regional connectivity and discuss the tremendous opportunities that need to be explored in the future. Afghanistan can serve as the land bridge that can help connect Central Asia to South Asia and serve as the catalyst for bulk energy transfers between the two regions. Similarly, as a data transit country, Afghanistan can play a key role in shortening multiple Internet paths within the region. A conversation with: Dr. Mohammad H. Qayoumi, Chief Advisor on Infrastructure to H.E. President Ashraf Ghani of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and Mr. Manish Tewari, Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. Moderated by Dr. Bharath Gopalaswamy, Director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.
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