Category: Amanda Taheri
Peace Picks | April 26 – May 1
Webinar with Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Dr. Marwan Muasher |April 27, 2020| 10:00 AM | Center for Global Policy | Register Here
Well before the Coronavirus pandemic Arab regimes struggled with political legitimacy crises driven by poor governance, economic failure, and an alienated population. Although most survived the Arab revolts of 2011 they remain highly vulnerable to internal and external shocks. How will the COVID19 crisis impact these regimes? Join us for a conversation with Dr Marwan Muasher on the pandemic’s impact on Arab regimes and the implications for their future amid rising pressures.
Dr Marwan Muasher is Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a scholar of Arab politics. Previously he served as the Kingdom of Jordan’s foreign minister, deputy prime minister, and ambassador to the United States. He has written extensively on the crisis and future of Arab politics and is the author of The Arab Center: The Promise of Moderation and The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism.
Faysal Itani is Deputy Director at the Center for Global Policy’s Non-State Actors and Geopolitics unit. He is also an adjunct professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University and a political risk analyst. Itani has repeatedly briefed the United States government and its allies on the conflict in Syria and its effects on their interests. He has been widely published and quoted in prominent media including The New York Times, TIME, Politico, The Washington Post, CNN, US News, Huffington Post, and The Wall Street Journal.
The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Defense Strategy and Posture in the Middle East | April 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
COVID-19 has ravaged societies and governments around the world. Militaries have been hit hard too. In the United States, the military has had to balance between supporting the civilian authorities in their efforts to provide medical supplies, defending the nation from external dangers, and protecting U.S. strategic interests abroad, all while ensuring that they are taking all appropriate precautions to protect the health of service personnel and their families. Even for the most powerful and resourceful military force on the planet, this is an incredibly difficult balancing act. In the Middle East, where the United States has a large military footprint, readiness seems uncertain with resources getting diverted, training exercises getting canceled, and soldiers getting sick.
How has COVID-19 affected U.S. defense strategy and posture in the region? What are the implications for Washington’s plans in Iraq and against Iran and the Islamic State? The Middle East Institute is proud to present a panel of experts to address these questions and more.
Speakers
Mara Karlin
Director of strategic studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; Nonresident senior fellow, The Brookings Institution
Michael Patrick Mulroy
Senior fellow for national security and defense policy, MEI; Co-founder, Lobo Institute
General (ret.) Joseph L. Votel
Distinguished senior fellow on national security, MEI; President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security
Bilal Saab, moderator
Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security Program, MEI
Crisis and Survival Amidst COVID-19 in Yemen | April 27, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The first case of COVID-19 has been confirmed in Yemen. The spread of the pandemic in the war-torn country threatens to be the most catastrophic in the world. Yemen’s healthcare system has collapsed, over 3.6 million Yemenis are internally displaced, and 24 million Yemenis—85 percent of the population—are in need of humanitarian aid.
Please join us for a discussion on the implications of COVID-19 in Yemen with Lise Grande, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen. The event is co-hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program, Global Health Program, and Humanitarian Agenda. Throughout the event, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the guest, Lise Grande, and hosts Jon B. Alterman and J. Stephen Morrison.
Lise Grande is responsible for leading the UN’s largest emergency operation in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, as the UN resident coordinator and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen. She oversees and facilitates the work of all UN agencies across Yemen. Prior to this role, she ran UN assistance in Iraq for three years, served in senior positions in relief efforts in South Sudan and the Republic of the Congo, and was the head of UNDP activities in India.
Speakers
Lisa Grande, United Nations Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator in Yemen
Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
Jacob Kurtzer, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Women Leading with Courage in Times of Crisis | April 28, 2020 | 11:00 AM| Women’s Learning Partnership | Register Here
Join women leaders from Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the US as they discuss how the coronavirus pandemic has impacted communities across the world. The challenges are significant: threats to health and wellbeing, increased gender-based violence, loss of income, and the erosion of human rights. In the face of these obstacles, women are responding with creativity, compassion, and courage. Speakers will highlight the innovative solutions and initiatives that women are leading to address the crisis and build a more equal future.
Speakers
Musimbi Kanyoro, moderator, WLP Board Chair and former CEO of Global Fund for Women
Mahnaz Afkahmi, Founder and President of Women’s Learning Partnership
Allison Horowski, Chief Operating Officer of Women’s Learning Partnership
Asma Khader, Executive of Director of Solidarity is Global-Jordan
Joy Ngwakwe, Executive Director of Center for Advancement of Development Rights
Andrew Romani, Program Officer of Cidadania, Estudo, Pesquisa, Informacao e Acao
Becoming Kim Jong Un- A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator | April 28, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 1:30 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
When it became clear in 2009 that Kim Jong Un was being groomed to be the leader of North Korea, Jung Pak was a new analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Her job was to analyze this then little-known young man who would take over a nuclear-armed country and keep the highest levels of the U.S. government informed of the driving forces behind North Korea’s behavior and the subsequent implications for U.S. national security.
Now a senior fellow in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and holder of the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Jung Pak traces and explains Kim’s ascent to the world stage in her new book “Becoming Kim Jong Un,” which draws on her deep knowledge and experience in the U.S. intelligence community. In piecing together Kim’s wholly unique life, Pak argues that his personality, perceptions, and preferences matter. As the North Korean nuclear threat grows, Pak offers insights on the character and motivations of North Korea’s enigmatic dictator.
On April 28, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies will host Pak and her former colleague at the CIA, Sue Mi Terry, for a fascinating conversation about the key findings of the book and their experiences working on what the CIA has called the “hardest of the hard targets.”
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or via Twitter at #BecomingKim.
Speakers
Ryan Hass, Chair, Foreign Policy Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L Thornton China Center, Brookings Institute
Jung H. Pak, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Senior Fellow Foreign Policy Center for East Asian Policy Studies, Brookings Institute
Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow Korea Chair Center for Strategic and International Studies
A New Chapter in Middle East Foreign Policy | April 29, 2020| 10:30 AM- 11:30 AM| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Middle East Center| Register Here
As world powers struggle to slow the spread of COVID-19, countries across the Middle East are mulling over this pandemic’s impact on the regional power balance and foreign policy. The status-quo has shifted considerably. Oil prices and the OPEC Plus agreement have collapsed, Idlib has seen a temporary halt in fighting, the conflicts in Libya and Yemen have escalated even further, labor markets are shifting dramatically, and capital flight is a looming threat.
China has expanded its presence across the region, from Oman in the Gulf to Egypt and Algeria in North Africa. How will the current U.S.-Chinese rivalry play out in the region after the pandemic? Will Russia’s looming economic crisis have an effect on the Kremlin’s Middle East policy? Given the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s economies, can the European Union fund recovery efforts in the Middle East?
Speakers
Rosa Balfour is the director of Carnegie Europe.
Evan Feigenbaum is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment.
Dmitri Trenin is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Maha Yahya, moderator, is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
What’s Next for US-Iraq Relations? | April 29, 2020 | 10:30 AM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative for an online event to discuss the new report. Kirsten Fontenrose, Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council, Dr. Abbas Kadhim, Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council, and Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council will share their views on the possible trajectories US-Iraq relations could take. Louisa Loveluck, Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post, will moderate the discussion.
The US strikes that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Qods Force Commander Qassim Soleimani, Deputy Chief of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Committee Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, and members of Kita’ib Hezbollah may have created a watershed moment in US-Iraq ties. Whether the water pushes the relationship along or drowns it, however, remains to be seen. Indeed, the United States has proposed a strategic dialogue with Iraq in June to review the US economic and security role.
The Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative is releasing a report by Nonresident Senior Fellow Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff that analyzes the current challenges in US-Iraq relations and presents policy recommendations.
Speakers
Ms. Kirsten Fontenrose
Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Ms. Louisa Loveluck, moderator
Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post
COVID-19 Under Apartheid| April 30, 2020| 10:00AM-11:00AM| Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC’s upcoming webinar focuses on the threat of the coronavirus pandemic in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip as well as for the Palestinian citizens of Israel. As Israel’s policies of occupation and settler colonialism continue in the midst of this global health crisis, what additional challenges are Palestinians facing under military occupation, apartheid, siege, and discriminatory policies?
Speakers
Diana Buttu
Palestinian-Canadian Lawyer and Analyst
Former legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team
Yara Hawari
Senior Policy Analyst, Al-Shabaka
Palestinian academic, writer, and feminist activist
Yousef Munayyer – Moderator
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan : The Potential Social, Political, and Economic Impact| April 30, 2020 | 10:30 AM -11:30 AM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
With regimes and economies already under pressure and saddled with unprepared healthcare systems, Pakistan and Afghanistan are ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Although COVID-19 was slow to manifest and initially met with public indifference and government delays, the number of victims, reported and unreported, is now spiking. Both countries can trace the outbreak primarily to the return of religious pilgrims from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Though varying in the strength of their health infrastructures, Pakistan and Afghanistan share their struggle to quickly upgrade their inadequate testing and care facilities. Both also confront the difficulties of all less developed countries in implementing restrictive measures and the implications of widespread economic closures, particularly on the least well off in their societies.
In Afghanistan, questions are being raised about COVID-19’s possible impact on the already paralyzed Afghan peace talks and the pacing of U.S. troop withdrawals. In Pakistan, could the outbreak prove to be the coup de grace to an economy already in meltdown, markedly alter the nature of federal-provincial relations, or reset the fortunes of an Imran Khan government? In Afghanistan and Pakistan both, will the health crisis provide the impetus for greater national unity or deepen existing cleavages?
Speakers
Natasha Anwar
Consultant Molecular Pathologist, Aga Khan University Hospital Regional Lab Lahore
Hasan Askari Rizvi
Professor emeritus of political science, Punjab University
Hamid Elmyar
Public health specialist, MD, former community health advisor in Afghanistan
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Senior fellow, Brookings Institution
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
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Peace Picks | March 9 – 13
A Conversation on National Security with General Petraeus | March 9, 2020 | 2:00PM – 3:00 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
More than 18 years after the 9/11 attacks, the United States has shifted its focus to competition with near-peer great competitors while still deterring rogue states like Iran and North Korea. During the latter years of President Obama’s administration and the early years of President Trump’s — through the 2018 National Defense Strategy, in particular — the U.S. has placed China’s ascendance at the heart of national security policymaking. But ongoing challenges with Russia, Afghanistan, the broader Middle East, and the Korean peninsula will continue to demand U.S. attention and resources.
General David Petraeus — former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, and commander of multinational forces in Iraq during the President George W. Bush-era surge — is a distinguished practitioner and analyst of national security. On March 9, he will join Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon in a wide-ranging conversation on the international security environment, the state of the armed forces, and the emerging threats facing the United States.
Africa Symposium 2020: Advancing Africa’s Governance, Peace, and Security | March 11, 2020 | 8:00 AM – 5:00 PM | Wilson Center | Register Here
Please join the Institute for Defense Analyses and the Wilson Center Africa Program on Wednesday, March 11 for the Africa Symposium 2020, “Advancing Africa’s Governance, Peace, and Security.” Access and download the full program agenda below.
In 2020 Africa embarks on its fourth decade of political and economic liberalization. Over the last 30 years, many nations of the continent have moved beyond reliance on military governments and controlled economies. Many have moved into the middle-income category, established norms for elections and political stability, and created institutions to manage conflicts.
But, with 54 countries, Africa’s progress is uneven. Africa embarks on the next decade with uncertainty over the democratic dividend and new challenges to peace and security. At the same time, there are new internal and international stakeholders that test the status quo and demand a share of Africa’s future. Each of these factors has implications for the U.S. government’s engagement with Africa and its strategic interests on the continent. Africa Symposium 2020 will reflect on the democratic dividend; Africa’s conflict management mechanisms; important stakeholders, such as women and youth; and Africa’s evolving international relations.
Speakers
Keynote Speaker: Major General Christopher E. Craige, U.S. Africa Command
Whitney Baird, Deputy Assistant Secretary for West Africa and Security Affairs, Bureau of African Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Pete Marocco, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Department of Defense
Lina Benabdallah, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University
Jaimie Bleck, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Judd Devermont, Africa Program Director, Center for Strategic and Internatioonal Studies
E. Gyimah-Boadi, Co-founder and Executive Director, Afrobarometer
Sandra Pepera, Director, Gender, Women and Democracy, National Democratic Institute
Marc Sommers, Former Fellow, Independent Consultant,
Paul D. Williams, Global Fellow, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University
General Norton Schwartz, President and CEO, Institute for Defense Analyses
Monde Muyangwam, Africa Program Director
Magdalena Bajll, National Intelligence Manager for Africa
The Way Forward in Syria: Idlib, US Policy, and the Constitutional Process | March 11, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 1:00 PM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
The Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies (HCCS), the Syrian American Council (SAC), and Arab Center Washington DC (ACW) will convene a conference in Washington DC exploring the way forward in Syria. The conference will focus on updates on Idlib, the developing humanitarian and refugee crises, Turkey’s involvement, and US policy toward Syria.
9:00 AM: Keynote Address: Challenges for US Policy in Syria
Khalil E. Jahshan, Executive Directorm Arab Center Washington DC
Zaki Lababidi, President, Syrian American Council
Keynote Speaker, Ambassador James F. Jeffrey, US Special Representative for Syria Engagement and the Global Coalition
10:00 AM: The continuing Humanitarian Crisis and US Policy in Syria
Wa’el Alzayat, CEO, Emgage Foundation
Wendy Pearlman, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northwestern University
Zaher Sahloul, President of MedGlobal
Valerie Szybala, Independent Consultant and Former Executive Director of The Syrian Institute
Yaser Tabbara, Strategic and Legal Advisor and Co-Founder, the Syrian Forum
Marwa Daoudy (Chair), Assistant Professor, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies in the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
12:00 PM: Keynote Luncheon: US Policy Response to The Humanitarian Crisis in Syria
A Conversation with the United States National Security Advisor | March 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The world is awash in security challenges. China’s rapid militarization; Russia’s attempts to intimidate NATO, at large, and the Baltic States, in particular, and its propping-up the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria; Iran’s consistent support to terrorist groups across the Middle East, sustained development of missile technologies now able to reach Europe, and use of nuclear blackmail to force Europe’s hand in supporting its nuclear ambitions; Nicolas Maduro’s death grip on Venezuela that threatens the complete collapse of the country and the spillover of instability into neighboring states in South and Central America; large swathes of Africa beset by violent Islamist radical groups…the list is long. The role of the President’s National Security Advisor, in part, is to coordinate the activities of the vast array of agencies that support understanding and responding to such a world. Leading the work of the National Security Council, and serving as the ‘honest broker’ for intelligence estimates and policy recommendations to the President, Robert O’Brien, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, must determine how best to ensure all relevant offices across the Executive Branch support the President’s efforts to ensure America’s security interests are addressed.
Please join us for a discussion with Robert O’Brien, a rare public opportunity to hear directly from him about his current work to streamline the National Security Council, make information coming to the President more focused and relevant, and the implementation of security decisions more timely and effective.
Speakers
Kim R. Holmes, Executive Vice President
Robert C. O’Brien, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs
Global Trends in the Rule of Law | March 11, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
As we enter a new decade, troubling developments around the rule of law continue to raise concerns for the future of fair and functioning societies. Since 2009, the World Justice Project (WJP) has documented these trends in its annual WJP Rule of Law Index, now covering 128 countries and jurisdictions in the new 2020 edition. Based on more than 130,000 household surveys and 4,000 legal practitioner and expert surveys worldwide,the 2020 Index provides citizens, governments, donors, businesses, and civil society organizations around the world with a comprehensive comparative analysis of countries’ adherence to universal rule of law principles.
Join USIP and the World Justice Project (WJP) as we delve into the findings from the WJP Rule of Law Index 2020. WJP’s chief research officer will review important insights and data trends from the report. This will be followed by a panel discussion on the underlying factors behind the results, as well as the policy implications for those invested in strengthening the rule of law.
Speakers
David Yang, Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation,
U.S. Institute of Peace
William Hubbard, Chairman of the Board of Directors, World Justice
Project
Sanjay Pradhan, keynote, Chief Executive Officer, Open Government Partnership
Alejandro Ponce, report presentation, Chief Research Officer, World Justice Project
Elizabeth Andersen, Executive Director, World Justice Project
Maria Stephan, Director of Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Margaret Lewis, Professor of Law, Seton Hall University
Philippe Leroux-Martin, moderator, Director for Governance, Justice and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
U.S.- China Relations and Global Impact | March 12, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Speakers
Louisa Greve, Director of Global Advocacy, Uyghur Human Rights Projects
Robert Ross, Professor of Political Science, Boston College Associate. John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University
Sophie Richardson, China Director, Human Rights Watch
Robert Spalding, U.S. Air Force Brig. General (ret.)
Information, the internet, and democracy: Transatlantic challenges – European responses | March 12, 2020 | 3:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council welcomes H.E. Věra Jourová, European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency, for a town hall conversation on “Information, the Internet, and Democracy: Transatlantic Challenges – European Responses.”
As the European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency, Commissioner Jourová is responsible for ensuring that the European Union and its member states adhere to its Charter of Fundamental Rights, including in the online space. She plays a lead role in preparing the EU’s Democracy Action Plan and is also key in EU discussions about online content, privacy, and rule of law. Vice President Jourová provides opening remarks focused on some of the key challenges from rapidly evolving technology and what they could mean for citizens and for democratic processes and institutions across the Atlantic. She looks forward to a conversation with the audience about the EU’s plans to address these challenges.
Army Air and Missile Defense | March 13, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:45 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Air and missile defense is one of the U.S. Army’s six modernization priorities. Major General Robert Rasch and Brigadier General Brian Gibson join CSIS to discuss what the Army has accomplished in this field, its priorities, and expected future developments. Following, a panel of experts will also discuss AMD developments and offense-defense integration.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30: Conversation with Major General Robert Rasch, Army PEO for Missiles and Space, Brigadier General Brian Gibson, Director, Army Air and Missile Defense Cross-Functional Team, and Dr. Thomas Karako, Director, CSIS Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:45: Coffee break
10:45-11:45: Panel discussion featuring Brian Green, Senior Associate (Non-resident), CSIS International Security Program, Barbara Treharne, Senior Analyst, Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organization (JIAMDO), and RADM Arch Macy (USN, ret.), JIAMDO Director, 2008-2011.
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Iranian parliamentary “elections”
February 21 marked the 11th Iranian parliamentary election. The Wilson Center hosted an event After Parliamentary Elections: Iran’s Political Future on February 26 with a panel of scholars to interpret the aftermath . Robin Wright, a USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow served as the moderator, with panel participation from Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Kenneth Katzman, Specialist on Middle East Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.
Wright stated the facts that led it to be considered the “most rigged Iranian election in history”:
- 90 sitting members of parliament were disqualified for reelection,
- only 19 reformists won seats (down from 121 in the 2016 elections),
- conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, comprising 76% of parliament, compared to 29% in 2016.
- voter turnout was poor due to dissatisfaction with the government about the downing of the Ukrainian plane and the public health threat of coronavirus.
Significance of this Parliament
Vaez cautioned against interpreting these election results as unprecedented. In 2004, the Guardian Council used similar tactics to disqualify 80 members of the parliament and paved the road to Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005. Tabatabai noted that the hardline win comes at a time of lower voter turnout, illustrating the widening gap between the population and the regime.
Vaez speculates that the push for a government-selected parliament is due to the Supreme Leader’s desire to conduct structural reforms. It would be more challenging to introduce constitutional reforms with a parliament ideologically opposed.
Katzman emphasized that the regime is by no means on its back feet. Is continuing its aggressive, confident stance. He pointed to the steps officials took to fix the election as an example of their resounding confidence. He pointed to Lebanon and Iraq as examples where political protests have resulted in resignations and government concessions. This has not occurred in Iran despite popular dissatisfaction with the leadership.
Militarization of Politics
Tabatabai and Vaez both noted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) made monumental gains in this election. The next speaker of the parliament could be a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Tabatabai thinks the Guards aim centralize and reassert power. Katzman noted the increased ability for the IRGC to influence and project power in the region with more parliamentary support.
Vaez noted that Parliament, Majles, does not play a monumental role in foreign policy , but it can impeach members of the cabinet and withhold approval, leading to a lame duck presidency.
Presidential Elections : Impact of US Election on Iran
Vaez suggests that the election of a hardline president in 2021 depends mainly on two factors,
- The new elected Parliament’s performance and
- the 2020 elections in the United States.
If there is a US president whom the Iranian government believes it can negotiate with, Vaez doubts that Iran will elect someone like Ahmadinejad. The panelists emphasized the close knit nature of these two elections and the monumental global impacts they will have.
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Idlib in crisis
The United Nations reported over 900,000 newly displaced Syrians in northwestern Syria since December 2019. This number is currently increasing due to the violence in Idlib. This tragic reality served as the foundation of the Middle East Institute’s event on February 21, 2020, titled The Crisis In Syria’s Idlib. The discussion was moderated by Alexander Marquardt, Senior National Correspondent at CNN, with participation from Charles Lister, Senior Fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremist Program at the Middle East Institute, Elizabeth Tsurkov, Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and Doctoral student at Princeton University, and Zaher Sahloul, President and Founder at MedGlobal.
“Unprecedented” Situation: Idlib
The panelists accentuated the “unprecedented” nature of the current situation in Idlib. Unlike Syrians in other “de-escalation” zones, the residents of Idlib have nowhere to go. The Turkish border is closed. The 2.8 million people in Idlib are trapped, fearing for their lives. Tsurkov underlined that there is a genuine fear among the population in Idlib that they are all going to die. Lister believes there are close to 2 million people on the border, IDP camps have been entirely full for months, and people are forced to sleep outside in freezing fields.
Sahloul provided a more historical overview of the conflict in Syria, reemphasizing that the humanitarian crisis has been ongoing for over nine years. Assad’s tactics focus on attacking civilian infrastructure; this is an attack against humanity, as schools, markets, and hospitals are constantly being bombed and destroyed. The majority of people are not being killed by bombs, but by chronic disease and lack of available doctors and treatment facilities.
Tsurkov added that the people in Idlib do not want to stay and wait for the regime to capture them as they fear being placed in regime prisons, which essentially serve as “extermination sites.” She notes that even people who are employed by the Syrian government are afraid of remaining under regime control because they have seen what happens too often: execution.
The International community’s failure to respond
Lister in dismay noted that the UN is unable to act. A French proposed statement to declare Idlib a crisis could not pass in the Security Council due to a Russian veto. Assad has recaptured around 35-40% of northwestern Syria in under a year. The key regime objective has been achieved: to control the north/south M5 highway. The next objective, control of the east/west M4 highway has not yet been accomplished.
The panelists emphasized that Erdogan is feeling huge political pressure not to allow any refugees over the border. Turkey has lost 18 observation posts in Idlib, but Turkish-controlled forces did fire at Russian jets. Turkey has established an end of February deadline for the regime to withdraw from Idlib. The panelists doubted this aspiration will be achieved.
Sahloul emphasized that the UNHCR office warned nongovernmental organizations in Syria last year of an additional million displaced people predicted in the next year. Therefore, Sahloul argues, the UN should not be surprised. He cited the lack of UN observers in Idlib and the failure of the UN Secretary General to visit Idlib as evidence of UN disinterest.
What could/should happen?
Tsurkov believes that if the Russian and regime warplanes that conduct horrific bombing and displacement of civilians were threatened and risked being shot down, the bombing would stop. Therefore the US and international community should raise the stakes for Russia and Assad by not only intervening when chemical weapons are used, but also when civilians are bombed.
All the panelists suggested that Turkey should not stand alone in this crisis. While Turkey has made many deplorable policy decisions in Syria, Ankara is also currently the only force trying to stop the regime. Lister said that Turkey has no choice but to gradually escalate its force presence and strength in the region. Turkey has to find a way to force a stalemate or ceasefire.
The only alternative to regime or Turkish control of Idlib is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose ancestry includes Al Qaeda. In response to this alternative, Tsurkov professes that local support for HTS is limited and dwindling, due to its recent military losses, but Gaza-fication of Idlib (control by an extremist group) would be better than millions fleeing and mass slaughter.
She believes the only plausible alternative is Turkish-controlled Idlib. Sahloul emphasized that HTS would not be able to govern; it was tolerated only because of the stability it brought. Lister noted that HTS has been officially reaching out to conduct interviews with the international community so that its image can be more aligned with stability and governance than with terrorism. Or at least can be viewed as better than the alternative.
The panelists conclude that the the international community should be providing funds and urging the parties to achieve a ceasefire as a way of stabilizing the situation. Lister urges the US, at a minimum, to utilize diplomacy and put pressure on Russia.
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Peace Picks | February 24 – 28
After Suleimani: Crisis, Opportunity, and the Future of the Gulf | February 24, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 12:15 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The killing of Gen. Qassem Suleimani in January 2020 sent conflicting signals about the depth of U.S. engagement in the Gulf. The United States seems intent to diminish its presence while keeping an active hand in regional affairs. Meanwhile, Russia and China are exploring ways to reshape their own presence in the region.
Please join the CSIS Middle East Program for a conference to examine the Gulf region in the wake of General Qassem Suleimani’s death. Two expert panels will explore security threats and new opportunities for diplomacy in the region. General Joseph L. Votel will then deliver a keynote address on Great Power competition in the Gulf, followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy, and director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
General Joseph L. Votel, President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security
Ambassador Anne Patterson, Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. State Department
The Honorable John McLaughlin, Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Dr. Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
Ambassador Douglas Silliman, President, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The Honorable Christine Wormuth, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND Corporation
Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinkski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
Solving the Civil War in Libya | February 24, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM| Brookings Institute | Register Here
With armed factions vying for control of the country’s strategic assets and United Nations-facilitated negotiations leading nowhere, 2020 has seen no improvement to the turmoil that has plagued Libya since the ouster of Moammar al-Gadhafi in 2011.While the self-styled Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar continues, unsuccessfully, to try to take over the country militarily, the internationally-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez Serraj in Tripoli, propped up by militias opposed to Haftar, retains control over major institutions and sources of national wealth. With the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt backing Haftar, and Turkey and Qatar backing Serraj, weapons of increasing sophistication are flowing to opposing sides, pitting foreign powers against each other and violating U.N. sanctions.
Meanwhile, facing a stagnant economy and constant threats to infrastructure, the Libyan people are caught in the crossfire of this protracted jockeying. Unchecked migration and the threat of extremist groups taking hold in the country’s contested spaces likewise make Libya’s internal situation a security concern for Europe and the United States. Solving the civil war in Libya would restore needed stability to a strategically vital part of northern Africa, while laying the groundwork for the prosperity of the Libyan people.
On February 24, the Brookings Institution will host an event to discuss these issues. Moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, the conversation will feature Federica Saini Fasanotti, whose new book “Vincere: The Italian Royal Army’s Counterinsurgency Operations in Africa 1922-1940” provides timely and salient insight into the history of warfare in Libya.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator), Senior Fellow and Director of Research for Foreign Policy at Brookings Institute
Federica Saini Fasanotti, Nonresident Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings Institute.
Karim Mezran, Resident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council
Turkey Forging Its Own Path: Looking at the Changing US – Turkish Relations | February 24, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute| Register Here
Turkey’s relations with the West are at an all-time low. Scarcely a day passes without a report or headline on the front page of leading newspapers questioning Turkey’s reliability as a Western ally. The widening gulf between Turkey and the West and the increasing number and the growing complexity of the issues over which the two sides differ make it imperative to understand the dynamics of the relationship between Turkey and the West. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a launch event for Dr. Oya Dursun-Özkanca’s new book, Turkey–West Relations: The Politics of Intra-alliance Opposition. In her book, Dr. Dursun-Özkanca seeks to explain how and why Turkey increasingly goes its own way within the Western alliance and grows further apart from its traditional Western allies.
Please join us for a discussion on US-Turkish relations with Dr. Dursun-Özkanca and the director of MEI’s Center for Turkish Studies Dr. Gönül Tol. Books will be available for purchase at the event.
Speakers:
Oya Durson- Özkanca is the endowed chair of International Studies and Professor of Political Science at Elizabethtown College.
Gönül Tol, moderator, is the founding director of The Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies.
Colombian Human Rights Leaders Protect Their Peace | February 24, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here | Will be live webcast
Since the agreement with the FARC was signed in 2016, human rights leaders in Colombia have been operating in an increasingly high-risk climate. Just last month, the U.N. released a report detailing the elevated numbers of threats and assassinations targeting human rights leaders throughout 2019—particularly in rural areas and against those advocating on behalf of women and ethnic groups such as indigenous and Afro-descendant communities. But despite this growing security risk, the winners of the 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights have worked tirelessly to advance and protect core tenets of the peace agreement in their communities.
Organized by the Swedish humanitarian agency Diakonia and the ACT Church of Sweden, the Colombian National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights honors social leaders as they continue to defend their communities’ right to security, land, education, health, reparations, and access to justice under the 2016 deal.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace,
the Washington Office on Latin America, and the Latin America Working Group
Education Fund as we host the winners of the 2019 awards. These leaders will
discuss how they engage diverse social sectors as well as local, regional, and
national institutions and authorities to promote peace and ensure democratic
spaces for civic engagement.
The event will be streamed live. To follow the conversation on Twitter, use
#ColombiaPeaceForum.
Speakers:
Clemencia Carabali, 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights “Defender of the Year” Award Winner, Director, Association of Afro-descendant Women of Norte del Cauca
Ricardo Esquivia, 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights “Lifetime Defender” Award Winner; Executive Director, Sembrandopaz
Lisa Haugaard, Co-Director, Latin America Working Group Education Fund; Juror, National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights
Annye Páez Martinez, Representative of the Rural Farms Association of Cimitarra River Valley; 2019 National Prize for the Collective Experience or Process of the Year
Marco Romero, 2019 National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights “Collective Process of the Year” Award Winner, Director, Consultoría para los Derechos Humanos y e Desplazamiento
Gimena Sánchez- Garzoli, Director for the Andes, Washington Office on Latin America; Juror, National Prize for the Defense of Human Rights
Keith Mines (moderator), Senior Advisor, Colombia and Venezuela, U.S. Institute of Peace
After Parliamentary Elections: Iran’s Political Future | February 26, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here | Event will be live webcast
Iran’s parliamentary elections are set for February 21, 2020. Reformists won a plurality in 2016, but the balance of power is up for grabs after the failure of the reformists’ domestic and foreign agendas, growing discontent reflected in multiple rounds of protests, the tightening security crackdown, and economic woes spawned by the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.
Speakers:
Robin Wright (moderator), USIP- Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow, Journalist and author of eight books, and contributing writer for The New Yorker
Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor, Georgetown University
Kenneth Katzman, Specialist, Middle East Affairs, Congressional Research Service
What’s in store for U.S. – Turkey relations in 2020? | February 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Speakers:
Jennifer Miel, Executive Director, U.S.- Turkey Business Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Col. Richard Outzen, Senior Advisor for Syrian Engagement, U.S. Department of State
Mark Kimmit, Brigadier General (U.S. Army, ret)
José Andrés on Humanitarian Relief | February 27, 2020 | 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
For a decade, Chef José Andrés and his nonprofit, World Central Kitchen, have been on the humanitarian frontlines. What have they learned? And how can the humanitarian sector renew and revitalize itself for the coming decade?
Carnegie President Bill Burns will host Chef Andrés for a wide-ranging and timely conversation, part of The Morton and Sheppie Abramowitz Lecture Series. The series honors former Carnegie president Morton Abramowitz and his wife Sheppie, two renowned leaders in the world of humanitarian diplomacy, and highlights prominent thinkers and doers who follow in their extraordinary footsteps. NPR’s Nurith Aizenman will moderate.
The event will be preceded by a light reception from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m.
Speakers:
José Andrés is an internationally-recognized culinary innovator, New York Times bestselling author, educator, television personality, humanitarian, and chef/owner of ThinkFoodGroup. In 2010, he founded World Central Kitchen, a nonprofit that provides smart solutions to end hunger He was named one of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in both 2012 and 2018, and awareded Outstanding Chef and Humanitarian of the Year by the James Beard Foundation.
Nurith Aizenmanis NPR’s correspondent for global health and development. She reports on disease outbreaks, natural and manmade disasters, social and economic challenges, and innovative efforts to overcome them. Her reports can be heard on the NPR News programs Morning Edition and All Things Considered.
William J. Burns is president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as U.S. deputy secretary of state. He is the author of The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal.
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Ethiopians at loggerheads
The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, for restarting peace talks with Eritrea. Since taking office in 2018, he has initiated a series of reforms founded in a new ideology: medemer. Translated from Amharic, medemer means synergy and collectivism. On February 13, the United States Institute of Peace hosted a panel titled, A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer, with guests from Addis Ababa and Washington D.C.
The conversation was moderated by Aly Verjee, Senior Advisor of the Africa Program at USIP, with attendance from, Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ethiopian Ambassador to the US, Lencho Bati, Senior Political, Diplomatic, and Foreign Policy Advisor, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Mamo Mihretu, Senior Adviser on Policy Reforms and Chief Trade Negotiator, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and Etana Dinka, Visiting Assistant Professor of African History at Oberlin College. The panel was very tense at moments and the discussion involved many audience reactions in the form of both applause and verbal boos.
What is medemer in practice?
Verjee persistently directed the panel numerous times to illuminate what medemer means in practice in Ethiopia, rather than what it means as an ideology. Despite Verjee’s tenacity, his question, although reemerging many times, lacked concrete responses. Ambassador Fitsum delineates medemer as a social contract for Ethiopians to live together and pool their sources and efforts to achieve collective prosperity. He professes it as “a convenant of peace that seeks unity in our community, humanity, practicing love, forgiveness, and reconciliation.” Lencho explains medemer as the Prime Minister’s way of organizing a society and achieving a middle ground between different ethnic, religious, and federal sectors. He classifies it as striking a balance between competition and cooperation. Mamo professes that memeder is used as a framework to reform policy by engaging the past in a productive way through acknowledgement and lessons of what was successful and unsuccessful, rather than completely erasing it. Etana, taking a radically different view than the government officials, proclaims, “for ordinary citizens, medemer is hell.”
Ongoing Reforms
Much of the panel discussion was composed of biting remarks between the Ethiopian government officials and Etana. When engaging with Verjee’s question about the type of reforms that Ethiopia should undergo, the officials agreed that the “home-grown economic plan” of partial privatization is necessary moving forward. Ambassador Fitsum identified this plan as a tailored, Ethiopia-specific plan that will help shift its agrarian society to become more industrialized. Overall, the officials noted a much more progressive society since the PM’s election.
Etana disagreed with this rosy analysis, claiming that since 2018, when the Prime Minister took power, Ethiopia has experienced significant violent clashes in the countryside and instead of fixing and reforming Ethiopia, the PM Prime Minister has been building a foundation to stay in power. Etana sees the main obstacle to reform as the Prime Minister.
In response, Ambassador Fitsum conceded that the government has been trying to implement this new philosophy first by teaching and then by applying law, highlighting that there is still room for growth in this process.
Abiy Ahmed as a Federalist?
The government representatives declare that the Prime Minister is a federalist; however, this received vehement criticism from Etana, who professes that the government is ignoring identity politics as well as the sharing of state power. Etana claims that if the Prime Minister were actually a federalist then there would not be clashes in certain states in Ethiopia and the Prime Minister would not be failing to recognize that some people want separate statehood.
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