Category: Amanda Taheri
Peace Picks | February 10 – 14
Forging the Army’s Future | February 10, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for the latest event in its Commanders Series, “Forging the Army’s Future,” a public conversation with General John M. Murray, Commanding General of United States Army Futures Command. The event will take place on Monday, February 10, 2020 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. 2018 also saw the activation of Army Futures Command, designed to prepare today for military challenges decades in the future. The Army identified six key areas for modernization and assigned eight Cross-Functional Teams to see each to fruition. These modernization priorities are designed to support Multi-Domain Operations, the Army’s new concept for future combat across the spectrum of conflict.
Yet one of these priorities–the Next Generation Combat Vehicle–suffered a setback when the Army canceled its solicitation for Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle prototypes in January 2020. Does the cancellation signal early problems or does it demonstrate the success of the high ambitions and learning model that undergirds Army Futures Command? The answer to these questions will depend in large part on the Army’s ability to prioritize and deliver on its ambitious goals.
As the Commanding General of Army Futures Command, General Murray will join us to discuss how Army Futures Command is reinventing innovation in the Army. This conversation will focus on how the Army identifies priority capabilities for this new era of great-power competition, and how it plans to continue doing so for generations to come.
Rohingya– Beyond the Crisis Narrative: Statelessness and the Implications for Myanmar and Bangladesh | February 10, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Council of American Overseas Research Centers | Register Here
Speakers
Mabrur Ahmed is the Founder and Director of Restless Beings, an International Human Rights organization based in London
Rahima Begum is an artist, researcher and Founding Director of the international human rights organisation, Restless Beings
Shireen Huq is a co-founder of Naripokkho, an organization focusing on women’s rights in Bangladesh
Ali Riaz is a Bangladeshi American political scientist and writer. He is a Distinguished Professor at Illinois State University
Samira Siddique is a PhD student in the Energy and Resources Group and Researcher at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley
Prashanta Tripura is an academic anthropologist turned development professional, who is currently Project Director- Aparajita: Political Empowerment of Women at HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation in Bangladesh
Yasmin Ullah is a Rohingya refugee born in Northern Rakhine state of Myanmar. She currently serves as the President of Rohingya Human Rights Network, a non-profit group advocating to raise public awareness of the human rights violations against Rohingya people
Sanchita Saxena (Moderator) is the Executive Director of the Institute for South Asia Studies at UC Berkeley and the Director of the Subir and Malini Chowdhury Center for Bangladesh Studies under the Institute
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order | February 10, 2020| 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations, and have created major security and economic challenges for the states caught in between: first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Current policy approaches toward the regional order—i.e., the set of rules, norms, and institutions that govern the region—have exacerbated today’s disorder and instability. The authors of a new report offer a comprehensive proposal for revising the regional order. The proposal, which addresses the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts, was devised by four groups of experts convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe. Each group included representatives from the West, Russia, and the states in between.
Speakers
Alexandra Dienes, Research Associate, Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Vasly Filipchuk, Senior Adviser, International Centre for Policy Studies
Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Cooperation
Yulia Nikitina, Associate Professor, World Politics and Research Fellow, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Paul Schwartz (Moderator), Research Analyst, CAN
Jeffrey Mankoff (Discussant), Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Documentary Film Screening: “On Her Shoulders” | February 11, 2020 | 5:00 PM – 6:35 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center, in association with the Embassy of the Czech Republic, are pleased to present the award-winning documentary On Her Shoulders (2018, 94 mins, English subtitles) about the life of Nadia Murad, winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize for her “efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.”
Directed by Alexandria Bombach, the film follows the life and struggle of Murad, a Yazidi woman who was among the 7,000 women and children captured by ISIS in the summer of 2014, and forced to become sex slaves and child soldiers. After surviving the genocide of Yazidis in Northern Iraq, Murad becomes a tireless activist, alerting the world to the massacres and kidnappings in her homeland.
The film is programmed in parallel with the exhibit Speaking Across Mountains: Kurdish Artists in Dialogue and as part of the annual One World International Human Rights Documentary Film Festival held in Prague, one of the largest human rights film festivals in the world.
Tea and baklava will be served at the beginning of the event.
Sanctions Against Russia: Successes, Failures, and Future Prospects | February 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014, international sanctions have been a key instrument in exerting pressure on the Russian government to end the conflict. However, the current sanctions regime is plagued by a number of flaws and is in need of improvement. Vasyl Filipchuk and Anastacia Galouchka will analyze current sanctions, future prospects, and how the application of sanctions against Russia can be improved going forward in the context of their new report. The Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine H.E. Juris Poikans will provide opening remarks.
Speakers
Vasyl Filipchuk, Senior Advisor, International Centre for Policy Studies
Anastacia Galouchka, Expert on Foreign Policy and International Law, International Centre for Policy Studies
Ambassador Juris Poikans, Ambassador of Latvia to Ukraine
Reflections on Civil – Military Relations: Crises, Comparisons, and Paradoxes | February 11, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 8:30 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Join the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy for the 2020 Conference on Civil-Military Relations. See the schedule online.
This conference will:
- educate the audience on the history of civil-military relations, particularly the legacies of leadership, cultural change, and policy shifts during wartime
- present various dimensions of current civil-military relations debates
- engage the audience on questions of who serves, who is expected to serve, and who should serve in U.S. defense and national security, to include debates on the concepts of national service and the ethos of service
- continue to raise questions of leadership, ethics, and morals within military and civilian command and national service more broadly
Theater of War Productions will return for this conference for a performance of Theater of War: Scenes from Sophocles’ “Philoctetes”. Theater of War is an innovative public health project that presents readings of ancient Greek plays as a catalyst for town hall discussions about the challenges faced by service members, veterans, and their caregivers and families today. The performance of Sophocles’ Philoctetes will be followed by community panelist remarks and a facilitated town hall discussion.
Agenda:
11:00am – 12:00pm Arrivals & Lunch
12:00pm Opening Remarks | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
12:20pm Panel 1 | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Moderated by Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Peter Feaver, Duke University
Alice Hunt Friend, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Caitlin Talmadge, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
1:40pm Panel 2 | Civil-Military Relations Beyond the United States
Moderated by Nick Schifrin, PBS NewsHour
Risa Brooks, Marquette University
Eric Heginbotham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sameer Lalwani, Stimson Center
Daniel Marston, Johns Hopkins SAIS
3:00pm Panel 3 | The Future of National Service
Moderated by Aaron Mehta, Defense News
Jud Crane, National Commission on National, Military, and Public Service
Jason Dempsey, Center for a New American Security
Heidi Urben, U.S. Army
4:10pm Closing Remarks | Managing Paradoxes of American Civil-Military Relations Peter Feaver, Duke University
5:00pm Scenes from Sophocles’ Philoctetes By Theater of War Productions Town Hall Discussion to Follow Off-the-Record
6:30pm Reception
7:30pm Live Podcast Recording with War on the Rocks
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Loren DeJonge Schulman, Center for a New American Security
Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
After Trump: Defining a Progressive U.S. Policy for the Middle East | February 12, 2020 | 8:30 AM – 11:00 PM | The Century Foundation | Register Here
Approaching the brink of war with Iran in early 2020 has highlighted the risks of not pursuing a progressive U.S. policy approach to the Middle East. This event seeks to set forth a sustainable alternative U.S. foreign policy.
We will examine the animating principles and resulting policies of a more progressive approach for the Middle East. Progressive Middle East policy remains a contested concept among both policymakers and the American public: to some, it means an end to overly militarized policies and reducing U.S. commitments to avoid war; to others, it means greater U.S. investments in solving overseas conflicts, acting to prevent atrocities, and advancing human rights. Still others define it in terms of rethinking U.S. partnerships with authoritarian regimes.
A light breakfast will be served at 8:30 AM followed by keynote remarks beginning at 9:00 AM and an expert panel.
Keynote Speakers:
Senator Christopher Murphy (D-CT) s the junior United States senator for Connecticut.
Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) represents California’s 17th Congressional District, located in the heart of Silicon Valley, and is serving in his second term.
Introductory Remarks:
Mark Zuckerman, president at The Century Foundation
Panelists:
Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow at The Century Foundation
Dina Esfandiary, fellow at The Century Foundation
Sarah Margon, director of U.S. foreign policy at the Open Society Foundations
Melissa Dalton, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond| February 12, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Janet Lewis is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Her research examines why and how rebel groups form, with a focus on why many groups fail in the early stages, and what ethnicity has to do with it. Her book on these issues, “How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond,” will be published with Cambridge University Press in 2020. Her other projects seek to understand how news and beliefs travel through word-of-mouth networks in rural communities, and how states administer and monitor their peripheral regions.
She received a Ph.D., M.A. in Government from Harvard University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford University.
George F. Kennan and the Establishment of the State of Israel | February 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In the wake of World War II and the Holocaust, public sympathy grew in the United States for the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine. Yet in a series of memos in 1947 and 1948, George F. Kennan articulated a consensus view among U.S. diplomatic and military leadership that such a state could usher in Soviet influence in the Middle East, undermine access to oil resources in the Arab states and therefore undermine U.S. national interests in the Middle East and around the world. In this talk, Jeffrey Herf will examine Kennan’s memos, the context of their emergence, and their consequences for U.S. foreign policy at the dawn of the Cold War and beyond.
Speaker
Jeffrey Herf, Fellow, Distinguished University Professor, Department of History, University of Maryland, College Park
A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer | February 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Nobel Peace Prize winner and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has unveiled a new political philosophy for his country: “medemer,” an Amharic word which literally translates as “addition,” or “coming together.” But what are the key principles of medemer, and how can they be applied both domestically and abroad? How does medemer link with the existing Ethiopian political and social structure? And amid ongoing change and volatility, with highly anticipated elections looming, is medemer a path to sustained reform, or merely a political slogan?
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join USIP and a distinguished panel that includes representatives of the Office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a look at the questions, possibilities, and problems offered by medemer. Join the conversation with #AChangingEthiopia.
Speakers
Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ambassaador to the U.S., Ethiopia
Lencho Bati, Senior Political, Diplomatic, and Foreign Policy Advisor, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Mamo Mihretu, Senior Adviser on Policy Reforms and Chief Trade Negotiator, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Etana Dinka, Visiting Assistant Professor of African History and Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Oberlin College
Aly Verjee (moderator), Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Rivals who de-escalate
Kim Ghattas’ new book, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East, served as the centerpiece for a Carnegie Endowment of International Peace event on February 5. David Ignatius, a foreign affairs columnist for the Washington Post and author of eight spy novels, moderated the discussion about Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Forty Year Rivalry with Ghattas, author and Foreign Policy columnist.
Ghattas places her observations of the destruction of culture and artifacts that occurred during ISIS rampages in a broader context of other nearby regimes’ that profess puritanical thinking and try to control culture. This led her to examine a pivotal year in the Middle East, 1979. Ghattas argues that the Islamic Revolution served as the fulcrum for the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry. She underlines that prior to the Revolution, Iran and Saudi Arabia were seen as the two pillars of the Middle East often working towards containing socialism and communism. But post-Revolution, the two nations became great rivals.
Ghattas spoke about three transformative events from 1979:
- The Rippling Effects of the Iranian Revolution: Instead of discussing the specifics of the Iranian Revolution inside Iran, Ghattas spoke on the realities of 1979 inside the Kingdom, explicitly the Siege of Mecca. While there remains little evidence that the Siege was directly inspired by Iran, it can be extrapolated that the effects of the Revolution rippled through to Mecca for the two weeks following November 20, 1979. Both the Revolution and the Siege incorporated conservative applications of Sharia law. Ghattas notes that before these events, Saudi Arabia was on a more progressive path, with the opening of movie theaters and increased liberties for women. Post-Siege and Revolution, the regime became more and more repressive.
- The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Soviet invasion led to the creation of the Mujahideen, supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (alongside the CIA). The Kingdom and Pakistan used the situation to promote the idea of jihad to defend the faith from the ‘faithless communists.’ Ghattas and Ignatius both noted that Khashoggi was embedded and reporting in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. Khashoggi reported that the most radical fighting groups were receiving the most money and support from Saudi clerics. Khashoggi spoke out against Prince (now King) Salman, alleging that he privileged Salafists.
- Disappearance of Musa al-Sadr: al-Sadr was a Shia leader who was living in Lebanon. Ghattas alleged that he had spoken with the Shah and warned him of Khomeini’s potential. Al-Sadr traveled to Libya in 1978 and never returned. It is widely understood that he would have posed a threat to Khomeini during the ascent to power or during the post-Shah period.
After focusing on 1979, Ghattas shifted to discuss the current climate in Iran, 40 years post-Revolution. Iran is still in a period of major protests, which have occurred in 2009, 2017, 2018, 2019, and today, in 2020. The Iranian public is continuing to speak out against the government. Despite this, there is no sign of the regime giving up or falling any time soon.
Ghattas ended with the comment that neither Iran or Saudi Arabia wants to go to war with the other. While they continue to be hostile rivals, they often find ways through talks and third parties to de-escalate. The lack of response to the drone strike against two Saudi oil processing facilities in September 2019 serves as an example of the Kingdom and Iran’s ability to de-escalate.
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Economic sanctions work, but…
The continued use of US economic sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, North Korea and Cuba was the focus for a Brookings panel, Economic Sanctions: Assessing their use and implications for U.S. foreign policy on January 27. Moderated by James Goldgeier, Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow, the panel included Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow Center for Middle East Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Jung H. Pak, Senior Fellow Center for East Asia Policy Studies, and Ted Piccone, Nonresident Senior Fellow Security and Strategy.
Four Case Studies
Maloney believes the US uses sanctions in tandem with diplomacy with Iran, but usually is not joined by others. Two changes have occurred that altered the effectiveness of sanctions on Iran:
- After the 9/11 attacks, US sanctions became more targeted and were no longer only trade sanctions.
- The energy market has shifted with increased production outside the Persian Gulf.
US sanctions have not achieved their political goal of a dramatic reversal of core Iranian policy, but rather have only impacted the economy. Maloney argues that economic sanctions are effective in countries that already have dysfunctional economies, allowing the sanctions to compound structural problems.
Pak, an expert on North Korea, claims that the US only started piling on sanctions on North Korea since 2016, focused on sectors like seafood, iron, oil. The targeted sanctions of 2005 on Banco Delta Asia, which was helping facilitate North Korean illicit financing measures, led to serious economic problems. This sanction signaled to other banks and investment funds that doing business with North Korea was risky.
Piccone emphasizes that Cuba is an example of ineffective US sanctions, since they did not achieve their specified target of dislodging the Communist regime and removing Castro from power even if they were successful in stifling the economy. The US failed with Cuba sanctions to gain multilateral support. Due to the devastated economy, Cubans suffered and migrated: over 10% of the Cuban population lives outside Cuba, with the majority residing in the US.
Piccone contrasts Cuba sanctions with Venezuela, where the US shifted from targeted sanctions to sectoral ones, particularly on oil and gas. These sanctions amplified many of Venezuela’s existing economic problems. Sanctions effectiveness is closely tied to how dependent a country is on the US.
All panelists emphasized that even economically ‘successful’ sanctions can still be rendered ineffective if the political goals behind the sanctions are not realized.
Credibility is important
Maloney underlines the importance of sustaining credibility with regards to sanctions. Even before the May 2019 JCPOA withdrawal, Iran felt that the US was not upholding its side of the deal, as there continued to be new sanctions placed on the country.
All the panelists noted how muddled sanctions can be when the US makes exceptions for a program like the JCPOA, but maintains other sanctions related to support for terrorism and human rights violations. Maloney suggests that these remaining sanctions deter international banks and investors and reduce investment in Iran. The US withdrawal from the agreement undermined US credibility. Piccone adds that the inconsistencies between US administrations only further confuse the aims of sanctions, particularly in the case of Cuba.
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Peace Picks | January 27- 31
Demolishing Democracy: How Annexationism is Bulldozing Israeli Institutions| January 27, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
Around the world today, peoples are contending with the “democratic recession” and the rise of illiberalism. In Israel, these phenomena are inextricably linked to and driven by the occupation, settlements, and the quest for annexation.
At the outset of 2020, Israeli annexationists — egged on by fellow travelers in the Trump Administration and the U.S. Jewish and Evangelical communities — appear to be on the cusp of achieving their goal of formal annexation of the West Bank by Israel. The current situation did not arise overnight. Rather, it is the result of a decades-long drive to transform the territories occupied by Israel in the 1967 War into an integral part of sovereign Israel. This drive has inflicted serious damage on the institutions that comprise and are supposed to defend Israeli democracy.
Today, Israel’s democratic institutions are under ever-growing threat, including attacks and delegitimization from Israeli political leaders. With a final push to formal annexation looming, the integrity and viability of these institutions – and with them, the future of Israeli democracy – hang in the balance.
At this critical juncture, Yehuda and Debra will discuss how this happened, what it would take to change course, and what all of this means for Israel’s future and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Speakers
Yehuda Shaul served in the IDF from 2001-2004 in the West Bank. He founded Breaking the Silence in 2004 with a group of fellow veterans.
Debra Shushan Director of Government Affairs at J Street.
Betrayed by an Ally: U.S. National Security in the Middle East | January 27, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM | Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in the Middle East, putting U.S. national security interests in jeopardy.
Our expert panel will break down the variables surrounding this topic.
Speakers:
Joel Rubin: Jewish Outreach Director for the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign
Bassima Alghussein: CEO, Alghussein Global Strategies, Former White House Appointed Congressional Advisor
Jeff Stacey: Contributor to the New York Times
Edward P. Joseph: Broadcast and print commentator, US Foreign Policy Professional, U.S. Veteran
Economic Sanctions: Assessing their use and implications for U.S. Foreign Policy | January 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the nearly two decades since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has expanded its use of economic sanctions to address a broad range of national security and foreign policy objectives. Through the innovative use of financial penalties and greater integration in the global banking system, sanctions have become the go-to tool of economic warfare. They are widely applicable, scalable, and can be comprehensive or targeted. Yet, with Washington’s increasing reliance on these policy instruments, serious questions remain about their long-term effectiveness and their potential to produce unintended consequences.
For sanctions to achieve strategic objectives they must be adapted to a new era of geopolitical competition and coordinated with other forms of diplomacy. To help make sense of the design, implementation, and implications of sanctions, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a panel of experts with a combined background in the use of sanctions in Latin America, Europe, North Korea, and the Middle East.
Bruce Jones, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program, will kick off the event with introductory remarks. He will be followed by a panel discussion with Brookings Senior Fellows Suzanne Maloney, Jung Pak, Ted Piccone, and Tom Wright, moderated by Jim Goldgeier, Robert Bosch senior visiting fellow. The session will conclude with questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Bruce Jones Vice President and Director at Brookings Institute
Suzanne Maloney Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institute
Jung H. Pak Senior Fellow at the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at Brookings Institute
On the Horizon: What to Expect in 2020 Wilson Center Experts Weigh In| January 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In a world marked by complexity, volatility, and a din of competing agendas, the Wilson Center is the nation’s indispensable resource for decoding today’s most pressing foreign policy challenges. Leveraging its global expertise and perspective, award-winning scholarship and analysis, and a fiercely nonpartisan spirit, the Center informs actionable ideas for policymakers across the political spectrum.
Join Wilson Center experts for a global roundup of what’s on the horizon in 2020—from Russia, to Asia, to the ongoing regional trade negotiations—and what economic, political, and security trends are emerging regionally and throughout the world.
Speakers:
Jane Harman Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Abraham Denmark Director, Asia Program
James Dickmeyer Acting Director, The Canada Institute
Jean H. Lee Director Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy
Robert S. Litwak Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies
Michael Morrow Senior Diplomatic Fellow
William E. Pomeranz Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
Matthew Rojansky Director, Kennan Institute
Michael Sfraga Director, Global Risk and Resilience Program and Director, Polar Institute
Duncan Wood Director, Mexico Institute
Russia in the Middle East at a Time of Growing Tensions: A View from Israel | January 28, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM | Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
As the targeted killing of Qassem Suleimani is reshaping power alignments in the Middle East, Russia is determined not to let its influence in the region weaken. From Russian weapons deliveries to Turkey and Iran, to the civilian nuclear reactor the Kremlin is helping Egypt build, to Vladimir Putin’s recent surprise visit to Syria: all of these are meant to send a message of the Kremlin’s intention to remain a player in the region. What are Russia’s strategic objectives in this moment of change? Is Russia looking to fill the power vacuum left by a weakening Iran? Two top Israeli analysts offer their perspectives.
Speakers
Major General (Res.) Amos Gilead Executive Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), IDC Herzliya; Chairman of the IPS Annual Herzliya Conference Series
Ksenia Svetlova Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya
Middle East in 2020: A Challenge for World Peace? | January 29, 2020 | 11:00 PM – 12:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Please join us for a timely panel to assess the recent security developments in the Middle East and implications for the world.
Speakers
Moderator, Isil Acehan Visiting Professor, George Mason University
Elena Pokalova Chair, College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University
James Carafano Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, E.W. Richardson Fellow, Heritage Foundation
The Future of Multilateral Peacebuilding | January 29, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In an era of rapid technological change and fraying traditional alliances, the international order that has overseen one of the most peaceful periods in human history is facing unprecedented challenges. While member states grapple with the utility and relevance of the United Nations in the 21st century, global fragility, conflict, and violence continue to escalate—exacting an enormous human toll. The imperative for collective global action to resolve the world’s most intractable conflicts has never been greater.
In light of these trends, it’s critical that the community of actors committed to global peace and security take stock of the successes, challenges, and innovations in multilateral conflict prevention, mediation, and peacebuilding.
Join USIP, The Stimson Center, Alliance for Peacebuilding, and the United Nations Association of the National Capital Area for a timely discussion on the future of the multilateral system and the potential for practical, innovative reform with U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, the highest-ranking American currently serving at the United Nations and the first woman to hold the position. As a precursor to the U.N.’s 75th anniversary in 2020, this event will consider how the U.N. has modernized its conflict prevention and management resources to address the changing nature of conflict; how reforms of the U.N.’s political and peacebuilding architecture have improved its effectiveness, as well as what steps are still needed; and what practical actions U.S. and international policymakers can take to support more durable multilateral peacebuilding efforts. Join the conversation with #DiCarloUSIP.
Speakers
Honorable Nancy Lindborg President and CEO U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, United Nations
Ms. Victoria Holt Vice President, Stimson Center
Ambassador Jonathan Moore Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Ambassador Lynn Pascoe Board Member, United Nations Association of the National Capital Area; former UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs
Ms. Uzra Zeya President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Ambassador George Moose Vice Chairman of the Board, U.S. Institute of Peace; Advisory Council Member, United Nations Association of the National Capital Area
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Different Ways, Same Goal | January 31, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Stimson Center | Register Here
The issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula faces diverse challenges, as the US and North Korea are driven by their own strategic goals and perspectives on how to achieve them. Further complicating this issue are the different interpretations and policy solutions by South Korean and US experts. In this time of diplomatic impasse, join experts from the Stimson Center and Korea Nuclear Policy Society for this timely discussion on how to move forward in the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
Speakers
Jenny Town Stimson Fellow and the Managing Editor of Stimson’s 38 North
Sang Hyun Lee Senior Researcher at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, and serves as President of the Korea Nuclear Policy Society (KNPS).
Yong-Sup Han Former Vice President and Professor of the Korea National Defense University and a former director of the Research Institute of National Security Affairs.
Il Soon Hwang Chair Professor of Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) and an Emeritus Professor in the School of Energy Systems Engineering at Seoul National University.
Clint Work Stimson Fellow, jointly appointed to its Security for a New Century program and 38 North
Humanitarian Aid to Venezuela: The Need for a Global Response | January 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Compared to other countries in crisis such as Syria, South Sudan, and Myanmar, Venezuela receives significantly less humanitarian aid from the international community. Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis is yet to be a significant donor priority, despite levels of displacement that rival Syria’s (currently more than 15 percent of Venezuela’s entire population), and disease and hunger levels comparable to those found in sub-Saharan Africa.
This event will feature a high level keynote speech (to be announced). Following the keynote, a panel of CSIS experts will discuss the importance of humanitarian assistance from multiple angles, including the mitigation of destabilizing factors in the region, addressing increasing flows of refugees and forced migrants to other countries, the health implications of this ongoing crisis on the population, and the steps the international community can take to assist Venezuela.
Speakers
Moises Rendon Director, the Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow in the Americas Program
Katherine Bliss Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center
Erol Yayboke Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development
Jacob Kurtzer Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
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Syria isn’t over
On October 6 last year President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan had a telephone call that altered US policy in Syria. The White House released a statement that the United States Armed Forces would not support or be involved in the Turkish operation into northern Syria. The US no longer deemed ISIS to have a territorial ‘Caliphate,’ leading the Administration to leave the area. This phone call resulted in the abandonment of a strong US ally, the Kurds in northeastern Syria, to face Turkey alone.
This policy shift served as the foundation of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy policy forum titled The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications on January 23. The forum was composed of Gonul Tol, Founding Director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Studies Program, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, coauthor of the 2019 book, The Kurds of Northern Syria: Governance, Diversity, and Conflicts, and Dana Stroul, Kassen Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.
SDF still functioning
Van Wilgenburg, who recently returned from a trip into northeastern Syria, utilized this map to illustrate the presence and role of geopolitical actors.
The yellow portion of the map is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which continue to control significant territory. Having visited Syria post-October, he noted the increase of Russian vehicles on the roads, replacing American trucks. Overall, van Wilgenburg stated that the situation on the ground has not changed tremendously; however, the Kurds are scared of possible upcoming demographic changes due to Turkish plans for the creation of refugee resettlement camps in the region.
Van Wilgenburg emphasized that the biggest problem for the SDF is that they still lack recognition from Damascus and are not official participants in peace talks. The economy is much better than in the areas the Syrian government controls, particularly with regards to electricity and water services. While Assad isn’t willing to make concessions to recognizing SDF, he does understand that without the 80,000+ SDF fighters, there would be a huge vacuum, as Syrian forces are not large enough to maintain the SDF territory. SDF is in a weaker state than it was prior to October, but it is still functioning, as long as the cease-fire holds.
Erdogan is worried about his domestic support
Gonul focused on Erdogan’s foreign policy, which is connected directly to his domestic policies. While Turkey’s hope was to create a Turkey-controlled safe zone stretching all the way to the Iraqi border with the capacity to host 1-2 million Syrian refugees, that has not happened. The pocket of Turkish controlled-area is significantly smaller than Erdogan’s intentions.
According to Gonul, Erdogan has not been speaking about Syria as much on local news because the topic is closely tied to domestic Turkish politics and his own status. Turkey is hosting close to 4 million refugees from Syria. This weakens Erdogan, as anti-Kurdish sentiment is strong and blames Erdogan for allowing so many refugees in.
Turkish Kurds have captured a historic 13% of the vote and deprived Erdogan a parliamentary majority. With the Kurds supporting the Turkish opposition, President Erdogan lost local elections in March. Erdogan is trying to marginalize and criminalize the Kurdish opposition. Gonul suggested that Erdogan’s failure to meet his goals in Syria has led to his shift of attention to Libya.
Turkey has also not delivered on capturing Idlib, where there are tensions between Ankara and Moscow. Despite their fragile relationship, Erdogan will not act in Syria without a Russian “green light.” Between tensions with Russia and the United States, Turkey is squeezed in Syria. Gonul does not believe Erdogan will defy the United States in Syria, as the threat of sanctions could strain the already weak Turkish economy.
Why the US Government should care about Syria
Stroul brought the conversation to a more global and US-centric arena, highlighting the core findings from the Syria Study Group report in 2019. She emphasized that Syria is of interest to the US for multiple reasons, but mainly because it represents a geostrategic nexus of threats facing the US: terrorism, Iran and it’s power projection into the region, and Russia and Great Power competition. Stroul disagreed with the notion that the conflict is over, suggesting that it is only entering a new phase. Stroul emphasized that since the Trump/Erdogan phone call there is no longer the same trust between the SDF and the US. This will lead to major consequences in the region.
All three panelists emphasized that refugees are not going to return to Syria at present despite Erodgan’s plan. Van Wilgenburg added that most of the refugees in Turkey that Erdogan is referring to are actually from Aleppo and other more western cities in Syria. They will not want to be relocated to northeastern Syria.
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Optimism on Europe
With Brexit day around the corner on January 31, the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) hosted a panel titled The Future of Europe: French and German Perspectives. The panel was a discussion between German Ambassador Emily Haber and French Ambassador Philippe Etienne, moderated by Rachel Ellehuus, the Deputy Director of the Europe Program at CSIS.
Despite the looming fate of Brexit, Haber was adamant to make numerous comments about the continued strength of the European Union and proclaimed that the European cause has actually become more popular. Haber noted that the European Union has always been at the crossroads, continually changing its narrative and sense of purpose. The construction and functionality of the European Coal and Steel Community was entirely different than the European Union of today, thus the Europe Union will be able to move on and reshape after the loss of the UK.
Over the past 11 years the EU has experienced multiple crises, including the euro crisis, the migration crisis, and Brexit. Haber argued that there exists a paradox in the effects of these crises, on the one hand they have led to a loss of confidence in the EU structure (sparking populist movements), while on the other they have strengthened governance structures. Haber emphasized that these structures create a protective barrier for the citizens, and it is these governance structures that will allow the EU member countries to combat larger issues of climate change and nuclearalization, for example.
Etienne emphasized that the France-Germany alliance is the backbone of the EU and is necessary for its functionality. He added that the most important characteristic of the EU is the will of the leaders and nations to achieve constructive compromises, not the actual member states.
Ellehuus inquired about the synergies and tensions that exist within the EU and the nation states’ agendas. Haber referenced the migration crisis as an exemplification of the confusion and possible tension between citizens, their governments, and the EU institutions. Due to the EU’s open borders policy, many governments wanted to discuss and solve the issue at the EU level rather than at their national level; however, this enraged many citizens as they felt their elected officials were not properly representing their desires.
Etienne added that the EU has an entire set of institutions, laws, and diplomatic processes that often make it confusing for citizens to comprehend and grasp its role. He accentuated that despite these confusions, the purpose of the EU is to protect its citizens and provide legitimacy to decision making processes. Both Etienne and Haber emphasized the benefits that the EU brings to the US as well as to its people. Ultimately, Etienne and Haber remained positive about the fate of the EU in this upcoming transition period.
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