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Peace Picks April 29-May 3

Posted in Bouela Lehbib - April 29, 2019 - 0 Comment

Hudson Institute will host a discussion on the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East. Panelists will include Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Pregent; Daily Beast columnist and author Gordon Chang; the Washington Institute’s Anna Borshchevskaya; and Hudson Fellow Blaise Misztal. Al Arabiya’s Nadia Bilbassy-Charters will moderate the discussion.

Iran, Russia, China, and others are closely monitoring U.S. policy in the Middle East ahead of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. As 2020 candidates’ foreign policy platforms come into focus, this election outcome could have significant ramifications across established policies impacting regional fault lines, such as the polarizing Iran Deal. Additionally, recent efforts by the Trump administration to decrease the U.S. presence in Syria and Iraq have raised questions among allies about America’s long-term ambitions for the Middle East, while adversaries eye the moves as an opportunity to fill potential power vacuums left in the region.

Speakers

Nadia Bilbassy-Charters Moderator, Bureau Chief, Washington D.C., Al Arabiya

Gordon G. Chang, Author, Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World; and a columnist at The Daily Beast

Blaise Misztal, Fellow, Hudson Institute

Mike Pregent, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Anna Borshchevskaya, Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

One year after exiting the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration officially designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization and is seeking to strangle Iranian oil exports. What is the likely outcome of the Trump administration’s escalating pressure campaign against Iran? How will Tehran react, and what lessons can be drawn from the last four decades of U.S.-Iran history?

SPEAKERS

GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS, former director of the CIA and is currently the chairman of the KKR Global Institute.

WILLIAM J. BURNS, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal.

SUZANNE MALONEY, senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and Energy Security and Climate Initiative.

MODERATOR, KARIM SADJADPOUR, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The Islamic State took the world by surprise in 2014 when it conquered much of Iraq and Syria and declared a caliphate there. Today, the so-called caliphate is no more. Nevertheless, the Islamic State has branches and affiliates in many countries, a large underground presence in Iraq and Syria, and numerous sympathizers around the world. The future of the group, and of the broader movement it claims to champion, are uncertain, and U.S. policy must ensure that it continues to retreat.

On April 30, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a discussion on this topic. Nathan Sales, ambassador-at-large and coordinator for counterterrorism at the U.S. Department of State, will offer a keynote address after which Brookings Senior Fellow Daniel Byman will moderate a discussion with Ambassador Sales. Following the conversation, the speakers will take questions from the audience.

AGENDA
Introduction
Bruce Jones, Vice President and Director – Foreign Policy Senior Fellow
KEYNOTE

Nathan A. Sales, Ambassador-at-Large and Coordinator for Counterterrorism – U.S. Department of State

MODERATOR

Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
DISCUSSANT

Nathan A. Sales, Ambassador-at-Large and Coordinator for Counterterrorism – U.S. Department of State

Please join the CSIS International Security Program and Project on Prosperity and Development for a discussion on pursuing effective and conflict-aware stabilization in light of the new Stabilization Assistance Review framework, released by the U.S. administration in June 2018.

Agenda
3:30 PM – 4:00 PM: Keynote
Dr. Denise Natali, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Moderator: Erol Yayboke, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, Project on U.S. Leadership in Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies
4:00 PM – 5:00 PM: Panel Discussion
Ambassador Barbara Bodine, Director and Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University
Frances Brown, Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Robert Jenkins, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development
Moderator: Melissa Dalton, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, International Security Program, and Director, Cooperative Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Donald Trump was not the first choice of many conservative Christian voters for the 2016 Republican nomination. However, they strongly backed Trump in the 2016 presidential election, and they remain among Trump’s most ardent supporters. Are conservative Christians, in backing Trump, wagering that his policies are worth the baggage? Or have their priorities fundamentally changed?

More broadly, the percentage of Republicans who attend church regularly and who identify as Christian traditionalists is dropping, and the issues that animate Trump’s GOP appear different than those of the 1990s and 2000s. At a time of growing secularization, rising religious pluralism, and identity-based political polarization, has the role of Christianity in the Republican Party fundamentally changed?

Agenda

10:15 AM

Registration

10:30 AM

Opening remarks:

Daniel A. Cox, AEI

10:45 AM

Panel Discussion

Panelists

David Barker, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies; American University
Emily Ekins, Cato Institute
Emma Green, The Atlantic
Joanna Piacenza, Morning Consult

Moderator:

Daniel A. Cox, AEI

11:45 AM

Q&A

12:00 PM

Adjournment

Since 2011, popular protests have forced four of the five governments in North Africa out of power. As these long-standing regimes fall, the resulting political vacuums are creating security challenges that could undermine internal efforts to promote reform. Weak or non-existent government institutions are being exploited by terrorists, human traffickers, and criminals—threatening the stability of immediate neighbors while having a direct impact on Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and U.S. national security interests. Yet, all this upheaval may also present an opportunity to advance deep, regional security cooperation that has been historically unattainable.

Across North Africa, instability is at its highest level since 2011. In Algeria, President Bouteflika’s resignation was a necessary step to democratization, but it remains to be seen if the political structure can survive protesters’ demands for reform and ensure a peaceful transition of power. In Libya, the hope for a compromise to end the stalemate between the internationally recognized government in Tripoli and armed opposition forces seems to be lost. In Egypt, President el-Sisi’s supporters have proposed constitutional changes that will concentrate executive power, alarming human rights and democracy advocates around the world. And amid all this turmoil, Tunisia is trying to consolidate its own democracy and reform its security institutions following decades of autocratic rule.

Speakers
Abdelkrim Zbidi, Minister of Defense, Republic of Tunisia
Thomas Hill, Senior Program Officer, North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Michael Yaffe, Vice President, Middle East and Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel discussion to examine the implications of the Palestinian Authority’s recent power shift. On April 14, Mohammed Shtayyeh took office as Prime Minister, a position held by Rami Hamdallah since 2014. Shtayyeh’s appointment comes during a turbulent time in Palestine, amid protests over a new social security law and escalating confrontation with Israeli occupying forces. Unlike his politically-independent predecessor, Shtayyeh is affiliated with Fatah, President Mahmoud Abbas’s party, and Hamas has announced that it will not recognize his authority, saying he was appointed without national consensus.

How might this change in leadership affect Palestine’s political environment? Will Shtayyeh further sideline Hamas in negotiations with the Israeli government? What prospects are there to promote human rights and the rule of law amid heightening tensions between Palestine and Israel?

Speakers
Tamara Kharroub, Assistant executive director and senior Middle East fellow, Arab Center DC
Grace Wermenbol, Non-resident scholar, MEI
Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, moderator, Senior vice president, MEI

Tags : Iran, ISIS, North Africa, Palestine, US

The Yemeni quagmire

Posted in Bouela Lehbib - April 25, 2019 - 0 Comment

Hudson Institute held a panel discussion April 18 about the crisis in Yemen and its strategic threat to US interests and allies. The panel included Michael Doran, Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute, Fatima Abo Alasrar, Senior Analyst at Arabia Foundation, Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University.

Haykel gave an overview about the Houthis (who call themselves Ansar Allah), a group belonging to a particular caste of Yemeni society who ruled the country for a thousand years. Before rising again in 2000, They were marginalized since the late 1960s and displaced in 1992 with the revolution. Hussein El Houthi, founder of the group is influenced by Iranian ideology and draws inspiration from Ayatollah Khomeini. El Houthi and the Supreme Leader share the view that the US and Israel are enemies of Yemen, the Arabs, and Islam. This ideological connection was cemented from the middle of 1990s between the Zaydis (a Shia sect which the Houthis belong to) and Lebanese Hezbollah, which provided military, ideological and media training.

Although a small group in Yemen, the Houthis are the most disciplined, best trained and most ideologically motivated group. They are unlikely to be defeated military. Haykel urges that other ways of dealing with Houthis be conceived. Yemen, a poor country, has never been integrated into the labor market of the Gulf. A broad strategy that encompasses development and socioeconomic elements is needed. But Riyadh is not going to be easily convinced to end the war because the Saudis see the Houthis as a Hezbollah-like force on their southern border.

Alasrar argues that neither a military solution nor a political one has worked so far in Yemen. Incentives for the Houthis to come to the table are insufficient. Even when they do negotiate, they are not sincere, due in large part to the ideological alignment with Hezbollah and Iran. The Houthis are likely to remain the de facto authority on the ground given the reluctance of the international community to solve this issue military or politically. The Houthi’s core belief is legitimacy through force. Yemen’s future is therefore bleak. ,

But Alasrar also argues that many in Yemen recognize that the state marginalized the Houthis. Younger Yemenis would like to see a political reconciliation process to help the Houthis become a legitimate political actor. The Houthis did not subscribe to the national reconciliation process conducted in the aftermath of Yemen’s “Arab Spring.” They seized power easily at a vulnerable time when the transitional government after had no army. Weapons and ballistic misled smuggled to Houthis created a means for Iran to attack Saudi Arabia.

Doran stated that the US as a super power has to create a stable regional order in the Middle East. The Khashoggi murder was immoral and ugly, but the campaign to shift US policy on Saudi Arabia is wrong. Its roots lie in President Obama’s outreach to Iran, which he hoped would become a partner in establishing regional stability, which meant down-grading US relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel. There are only two American allies who are contesting Iranians on the ground: Israelis in Syria and the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. The argument that Mohammed bin Salman is unacceptable morally does not mean US should end its support for the Yemen war, which would weaken Saudi Arabia vis-a-vis Iran and leave a Hizbollah-like force on the Red Sea threatening shipping and hitting Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles. Ending support to Saudi Arabia is not going to improve the Yemen situation or get the Iranians out.

Tags : Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen

Hard transition

Posted in Bouela Lehbib - April 24, 2019 - 0 Comment

The Project on Middle East Democracy held a panel discussion April 15 about Algeria’s protests and what will happen next. The panel included Rochdi Alloui, Independent Analyst on North Africa at Georgia State University, Alexis Arieff, Specialist in African Affairs at Congressional Research Service, Amel Boubekeur, Research Fellow at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, and William Lawrence, Visiting Professor at George Washington University.

Boubekeur stated that people are protesting on the street asking for a functional state to provide water, electricity, and decent jobs. Since 1962, the regime built its legitimacy on the revolution by painting itself as the ones who got rid of France, built the military, and thus deserve to be leading the country. This narrative echoed for a while. By installing the recently ousted president in 1999, the army had wanted to end the civil war with armed Islamic groups, show the people that a new civil president would lead the country, and extract itself from politics. But throughout Bouteflika era, the president’s circle, the secret services and the army have governed. Ousting Bouteflika peacefully has shown the people that the country can do without him and even build a stronger state. Contrary to the regime’s narrative, he was not the only source of stability and peace.

Alloui pointed out the protests did not happen out of the blue, and the causes are complex. The political structure around Bouteflika seeking a fifth term was drove people to take to the street, in addition to grievances accumulated over decades. The people united around an important theme: kicking Bouteflika out. Once this goal was accomplished, it gave the protest movement a further boost and raised the bar to ridding Algeria of its traditionally bad politics. The protest movement wants to restructure the Algerian state to reproduce a new system and embark upon the second republic. Many pitfalls may lie ahead that can still divide the protest movement.

Lawrence gave an overview of the first Algerian democratic opening started in the late eighties, which Algerians have begun calling the first Arab spring. The Algerian regime since then has acted opaquely, operating on the basis of consensus reached in secret meetings to select the president. But recently many cracks have appeared: the veterans’ association, army officers, the National Liberation Front all turned against the president. High official figures like Algeria’s richest businessman, Ali Haddad, was caught at the Tunisian border trying to escape. The current protest movement is unlikely to be able to replace the regime. It may look like a “soft” revolution like those in 2001, but the Algerian military is likely to come out on top.

Arieff argues Algeria is probably the least market-driven economy in the world. That does not, however, mean young people want to move to a market economy and get rid of the social safety net. Living standards in Algeria have increased quite a bit over the last two decades. People have more access to social services than before, mainly in the restive southern part of the country. Most undemocratic leaders attribute the problems their states are going through to economic grievances rather than political ones. But the Algerian protest movement has grown mature enough to know that the two are intertwined: oligarchic rule and corruption have an impact on an individual opportunity for those without connections.

Bottom line: Pushing the president to resign and asking high political figures involved in corruption to do the same thing might be a good start towards a more democratic country but will certainly have implications on the functioning of the state. It is hard to replace a system that has been running the country for decades with a new one without facing structural challenges. Finding a person who is trusted and with integrity to serve as president will be difficult. It also remains to be seen how successful and democratic the transition will be in Algeria with the military still having a big say in politics.

Tags : Algeria, Democracy and Rule of Law

Peace Picks April 22-26

Posted in Bouela Lehbib - April 21, 2019 - 0 Comment

The Trump administration has taken U.S. foreign economic policy in directions not seen since the establishment of the postwar liberal regime for international trade. The US has been unprecedentedly critical of the WTO, sought to replace NAFTA with a new US-Mexico-Canada agreement, and cast the EU as a foe in trade relations while halting progress on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. But the most significant trade moves have targeted China and focused on the Asia-Pacific: opting out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, criticizing Chinese policies and practices as unfair on issues ranging across market access, currency manipulation, coerced or illicit intellectual property transfers, industrial policy, import duties, government subsidies, and Chinese firms’ violations of US sanctions on third countries. Initial rounds of tariffs from both sides and threats to escalate portended a possible full-blown US-China trade war as negotiations failed to move expeditiously toward a mutually acceptable deal.

The TPP has moved forward without the US, as the CPTPP with Japan in the leading role. The China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is emerging, with overlapping membership and less demanding rules. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may further change the regional economic and institutional landscape. Alongside its more confrontational stance on trade, the US has pressed for a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” What have been, and are likely to be, the regional impacts of recent US policy? What are the prospects for multilateral cooperation in the region? Is the current US approach, associated with President Trump but with some roots in earlier periods, likely to change and, if so, with what effects? Join us for a discussion on the challenges ahead in dealing with the new trade realities and what it means for U.S. relations with Asia in particular.

AGENDA

11:45
Registration and lunch
12:10
Introduction and opening remarks
12:15-1:45
Panel I: Regional impact of the “trade war”

David Dollar, Senior Fellow, John L Thornton China Center, Brookings

Meg Lundsager, Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center

Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow and Director for Chinese Strategy, Hudson Institute

Bradford Ward, Partner, King and Spalding

Jacques DeLisle, Director, Center for East Asian Studies and Stephen A Cozen Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania Law School (moderator)
1:45-2:00
coffee break
2:00-3:15
Panel 2: Trade realities and prospects for cooperation

Taeho Bark, Professor Emeritus, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University

Jacob Schlesinger, Senior Correspondent, Wall Street Journal Washington Bureau

Wayne Morrison, Specialist in Asian Trade and FInance, Congressional Research Service

Shihoko Goto, Deputy Director for Geoeconomics, Asia Program, Wilson Center (moderator)

Join Carnegie for a timely conversation about the impact of the Ukrainian presidential elections on the country’s politics and society. April 26 also marks the thirty-third anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, an event which played a central role in the formation of Ukrainian national identity, a topic that once again is at the forefront of the country’s extremely dynamic domestic politics.

Serhill Plokhll, Maykhailo S. Hrushevs’kyi, professor of Ukrainian history and director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University

Matthew Kaminski, global editor of POLITICO and the founding editor of POLITICO’s European edition.

Balázs Jarábik, nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Andrew S. Weiss, James Family chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Congress charged the U.S. Institute of Peace, an independent, bipartisan leader in reducing and preventing conflict, with convening The Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States. The Task Force has developed a proposal for a new cost-effective, evidence-based, and coordinated preventive approach. Modest U.S. investments—if they are strategic, coordinated, well-timed, and sustained—can empower communities over time to better resist extremism on their own and motivate international donors to support this cause. Join us as we wrestle with the challenge of supporting fragile states to build resiliency, sustain progress and prevent future threats and instability.

Agenda
9:30am – 10:30am – Recommendations of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States

Secretary Madeleine Albright, Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group

Stephen Hadley, Chair of the Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace

Governor Tom Kean, Co-Chair, Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States

Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace

Michael Singh, Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and Managing Director, The Washington Institute

David Ignatius, moderator, Columnist and Author, The Washington Post

10:30am – 11:30am – Prioritizing Prevention Across the United States Government

Chris Milligan, Counselor, The U.S. Agency for International Development

Lieutenant General Michael Nagata, Director for Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center

Alina Romanowski, Principal Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism, U.S. Department of State

11:30am – 11:45am – Coffee Break

11:45am – 12:45pm – International Prevention Efforts

Ambassador Diane Corner, Counsellor of Foreign and Security Policy, British Embassy in Washington, D.C.

Ambassador Martin Dahinden, Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States of America

Habib Mayar, Deputy General Secretary of the g7+

Ulrika Modéer, UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of UNDP’s Bureau for External Relations and Advocacy

Sam Worthington, President and CEO, InterAction

Raj Kumar, moderator, Founding President and Editor-in-Chief, Devex

In an exciting new book, “Blind Spot: America and the Palestinians, From Balfour to Trump,” Brookings Nonresident Fellow Khaled Elgindy takes a historical view of America’s engagement with the Palestinians and Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. He argues that while the United States has often presented itself as an honest broker and the one power best suited to mediate peace between Israelis and Palestinians, Washington’s ability to serve as an effective peace broker has been hampered by a “blind spot” in two critical areas: Israeli power and Palestinian politics. The Trump administration’s policies, such as moving the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, are only the most extreme manifestations of this age-old, American blind spot, Elgindy writes.

Agenda

Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy

4. The Future of Afghanistan: Ongoing Negotiations and the Role of Regional Allies| Monday, April 22,2019 | 11:00 am | The Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St NW, Washington, DC 20005|Register here|

The Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center is pleased to invite you to “The Future of Afghanistan: Ongoing Negotiations and the Role of Regional Partners,” a panel discussion on the progress of ongoing negotiations between the United States and the Taliban, and the role of regional partners.

The status of a future peace settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban remains uncertain, even as negotiations with the United States move forward. The role of US partners, including coalition allies, Pakistan and India will heavily influence the shape and success of any future political resolution in Afghanistan. This panel discussion will explore the contours of these relationships and the potential roles regional partners may play in supporting, or undermining, an eventual Afghan peace process.

Agenda
Moderated by:

Fatemeh Aman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council

A conversation with:

Daud Khattak, Senior Editor, Radio Mashaal, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Ambassador Omar Samad, Nonresident Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council

Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia, Wilson Center

Hudson Institute will host a panel to discuss the implications of the State Department’s recent designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as foreign terrorist organization (FTO). Panelists will include FDD Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu; Atlantic Council nonresident Senior Fellow Nader Uskowi; the New Iran’s Alireza Nader; and Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Pregent. The BBC’s Suzanne Kianpour will moderate the discussion.

On April 15, the U.S. formally designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as an FTO. The designation groups the IRGC with terrorist organizations like ISIS and al Qaeda, and marks the first time a government entity has been added to the list. The U.S. hopes that given the group’s significant political and economic influence, the designation will ratchet up pressure on Iran and blunt the country’s primary instrument of state-sponsored terrorism. Will international allies and partners abide by the U.S. designation? Will Iran fold to this newfound pressure, or will it end up being more resilient than the U.S. perceives?

Speakers
Suzanne Kianpour Moderator, Foreign Affairs and Political Journalist, BBC

Mike Pregent, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute,

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Nader Uskowi, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council

Alireza Nader, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, New Iran

Tags : Afghanistan, Asia, Iran, Israel/Palestine, Ukraine, US

Netanyahu redux

Posted in Bouela Lehbib - April 15, 2019 - 1 Comment

The Wilson Center held a panel discussion April 11 analyzing the Israeli elections, with David Horovitz, Founding Editor of The Times of Israel, Natan Sachs, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Dana Weiss Chief Political Analyst, and David Halbfinger, Jerusalem Bureau Chief at The New York Times.

Horovitz opines that it might seem the elections were to a large extent a referendum on Netanyahu and that the public wants more of him. But it is more complex than that. The election was a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership. Voters were looking at Netanyahu as the world leader who kept Israel safe in a toxic and unpredictable region for the past decade. Israelis are not convinced they need to change their leadership in the current hostile environment. Netanyahu is viewed as successful in confronting Iran as it seeks nuclear weapons. He also succeeded in painting the Blue and White alliance, including three chiefs of staff (among them his own former defense minister) as weak leftists who won’t be able to keep the country safe.

Horovitz suggests the interesting thing to focus on after the elections is what Netanyahu will do vis-vis the Palestinians and the corruption allegations against him. He has said will annex all the settlements in the West Bank, where he will apply Israeli laws. Even more important is how Netanyahu will fight off his indictment, using the Knesset to change the process and evade prosecution.

Sachs points out that since 1977, the first time the Likud party came to power in Israel, there have been fourteen elections, ten of which Likud has won. There is a structural advantage to the right wing. The majority of Israelis are right wing, with a small number (around 16%) calling themselves left wing. The left lost credibility among the Israeli voters after 2000 when Israel withdrew from Gaza and the second Intifada broke out. Israelis are pessimistic and skeptical of the possibility of reaching peace any time soon with the Palestinians.

Weiss stated Netanyahu did whatever it takes to win the election. He orchestrated the campaign by himself and a few young media experts. Elections were supposed to take place last November, but Netanyahu held them in April so that he would be strengthened in efforts to evade being indicted and to get immunity. Today, left and right are not about the conflict, it is about the nature of Israel. It is unclear if it will stay democratic and bound to the rule of law. The Blue and White wants to feel more Israeli than Jewish, seeking to keep Israel a democracy and the rule of law consistent. Netanyahu wants the opposite.

Halbfinger suggested that Netanyahu sold the electorate stability as well as economic and military leadership. He demonized his opponents. The fight over the Supreme Court and the judiciary is not personal to Netanyahu. There is a belief on the right that the Supreme Court in Israel, which is very liberal, has been overreaching. The right believes it needs to be brought back under control. For Halbfinger this is brewing into a constitutional crisis in a country that has no constitution.

Tags : Democracy and Rule of Law, Israel/Palestine

Peace Picks 15-19

Posted in Bouela Lehbib - April 14, 2019 - 0 Comment

Hudson Institute will host a panel to explore the strategic implications of the conflict in Yemen. In 2014, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels overthrew the government of Yemen and seized the capital. With U.S. logistical support, Saudi Arabia mustered a coalition to restore the government. In response, the Houthis waged war on Riyadh, firing ballistic missiles at civilian areas, including airports. Though the Houthis have been successful in portraying themselves as defenders of Yemen and Saudi Arabia as the aggressors, they have violated countless internationally brokered ceasefires and the conflict continues today.

In the U.S., Congress has voted to withdraw support from the Saudi-led campaign and the White House has turned up the pressure on Tehran, recently imposing sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—the Houthis’ patron. Can the Trump administration afford to let the Islamic Republic implant a Hezbollah-clone on the border of a key U.S. ally, thereby creating a failed state, and threatening international trade through Bab al-Mandeb?

Speakers

Fatima Abo Alasrar, Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation

Michael Doran, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Bernard Haykel, Professor, Near Eastern Studies Director, Institute for Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, Princeton University

Lee Smith Speaker, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

The CSIS Southeast Asia Program is pleased to present “Results of the Indonesian Elections: New Directions or More of the Same?” a panel discussion featuring Dr. Ann Marie Murphy (Professor, Seton Hall University) and Adam Schwarz (Founder and CEO, Asia Group Advisors). An estimated 193 million eligible voters in Indonesia will head to the polls on April 17 to cast their vote for president, vice president, and members of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR).The “Results of the Indonesian Elections: New Directions or More of the Same?” event will assess the outcomes of these elections, and what they mean for Indonesian domestic politics, economic policy, foreign policy, and U.S.-Indonesia relations.

Speakers

Dr. Ann Marie Murphy, Professor, Seton Hall University

Adam Schwarz, Founder and CEO, Asia Group Advisors

The reelection of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a fifth term was widely perceived as a blow to the prospects for peace and protection of Palestinian rights.

Netanyahu’s pledge to annex parts of occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank, as well as the ongoing marginalization of Palestinians inside Israel, make Palestinian statehood and the possibility of a peace plan seem ever more distant.

To assess the consequences of this vote, The Middle East Institute (MEI) and The Institute for Palestine Studies (IPS) invite you to a timely conversation with Raef Zreik, a prominent Palestinian lawyer and academic. Zreik will discuss what the elections say about the Israeli body politic, and the implications for Israel’s domestic and foreign policy. Amb. Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior vice president, will moderate the conversation.

Speakers

Raef Zreik, Associate professor, Carmel Academic College; Academic co-director, Minerva Centre for the Humanities, Tel Aviv University

Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, moderator, Senior vice president, MEI

This past November marked the tenth anniversary of the terrorist attack in Mumbai that killed more than 160 people, perpetrated by a Pakistan-based jihadist terrorist group called Lashkar-e-Tayyaba. Today the group still operates inside, and outside, of Pakistan’s borders despite mounting international pressure on Pakistan to disrupt its operations. As the group continues to attack India from bases in Pakistan, it further escalates tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries.

C. Christine Fair’s new book, In Their Own Words: Understanding Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, reveals little-known details of how this group functions by translating and commenting upon its sophisticated propagandist literature. The book examines how this canon of texts is the group’s most popular and potent weapon, in particular demonstrating how Lashkar-e-Tayyaba thinks about recruiting families rather than simply fighters. C. Christine Fair, Joshua T. White, and Polly Nayak will discuss the book’s findings and implications for the broader challenges around Pakistan’s nuclear coercion. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.

C. Christine Fair, associate professor in the Security Studies Program within Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.
Polly Nayak, fellow with the South Asia program at the Stimson Center

Joshua T. White, associate professor of the practice of South Asia Studies and Fellow at the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asia Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS

Polly Nayak, fellow with the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center.

The Atlantic Council and Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), are pleased to invite you to a special event on April 18, 2019 at the Atlantic Council Headquarters (1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators) to celebrate Ukraine’s future.

In the five years since the end of the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine continues to ask the important question: How will the country ensure democratic values in its future development? Much of Ukraine’s hope lies in its young leaders who will drive the country forward in the coming years. CDDRL has been fortunate to provide a year-long residency to some of these future leaders as part of the Center’s Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program.

Agenda
Welcome and Introduction:

Ambassador John Herbst, Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

Keynote Address:

Dr. Francis Fukuyama, Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Panel Discussion:

Ms. Nataliya Mykolska, Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program 2018-19, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies;Former Trade Representative of Ukraine, Deputy Minister, Stanford University; Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine

Mr. Ivan Prymachenko, Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program 2018-19, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Co-founder, Stanford University; Prometheus

Ms. Oleksandra Ustinova, Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program 2018-19, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Head of Communications and Anti-Corruption in HealthCare Projects, Stanford University; Anti-Corruption Action Center (ANTAC)

Moderated By: Ms. Melinda Haring, Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council

Since February, millions of Algerians have taken to the streets week after week for historic, peaceful mass protests against a fifth term for President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and for democratic change. The popular pressure led to the postponement of the April 24 presidential elections and, on April 2, to Bouteflika’s resignation after 20 years in power. Abdelkader Bensalah, long a key ally of Bouteflika and since 2002 the Speaker of Algeria’s upper house of parliament, has been appointed interim president. This appointment is in line with Algeria’s constitution, but is contrary to protesters’ demand for a genuinely independent figure to oversee this transitional period. The next steps remain unclear and many Algerians worry that the regime will resist a democratic transition. Please join POMED to hear from a panel of Algeria experts who will analyze what led to the protests, what has happened so far, and what might happen next.

Rochdi Alloui, Independent Analyst on North Africa, Georgia State University

Alexis Arieff, Africa Policy Analyst, Congressional Research Service

Amel Boubekeur, (speaking by video from Algiers)
Research Fellow, École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales

William Lawrence, Visiting Professor of Political Science and International Affairs,
George Washington University

Moderator: Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, POMED

Africa is at a crossroads—and which road its leaders take will shape the lives of billions of people, not only in Africa but also beyond its borders. Often overlooked, population trends play a significant role in Sub-Saharan Africa’s chances for prosperity. Between 15 and 20 million young people are expected to join the African workforce every year for the next three decades. Investing in the health and education of these young people, and providing opportunities for employment, will be essential to ensuring a positive future marked by economic prosperity and stability in the region.

Please join the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and Maternal Health Initiative, in partnership with Population Institute, for a discussion about impactful investments that country leaders can make to empower their countries’ youth.

Speakers

Moderator, Lauren Herzer Risi, Project Director, Environmental Change and Security Program
Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue, Professor, Department Chair, Department of Development Sociology, Cornell University; Associate Director, Cornell Population Center, Unami Jeremiah, Founder, Mosadi Global Trust
Dr. Gladys Kalema-Zikusoka, Founder and CEO, Conservation Through Public Health
Musimbi Kanyoro, President and Chief Executive Officer, Global Fund for Women

Tags : Africa, Algeria, India, Indonesia, Israel/Palestine, Ukraine, US, Yemen

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