Category: Ceighley Cribb

Peace Picks April 25-29

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 25, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. The security situation in Ethiopia and how it relates to the broader region | Monday, April 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As Africa’s oldest independent country, Ethiopia has a history that is unique in the continent. The country has faced its share of conflict, including a protracted civil war from 1974 through 1991. A land-locked location in Eastern Africa, the country has also been witness to climate catastrophes—including the drought that killed a half a million people in the 1980s and the threat of a new drought today. Despite being one of Africa’s poorest countries, Ethiopia has experienced significant economic growth since the end of the civil war, and a majority of its population is literate. In addition, Ethiopia is a crucial U.S. security partner, particularly when it comes to counterterrorism, in a region plagued by threats. On April 25, the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will host a discussion examining the security situation in Ethiopia, in broader political, economic, and regional context. Panelists will include Abye Assefa of St. Lawrence University and Terrence Lyons of George Mason University. Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, will moderate. Following discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
  1. A Rage for Order | Tuesday, April 26th | 9:30-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A Rage for Order is a narrative account of the Arab Spring’s unraveling, from the euphoric protests of Tahrir Square in 2011 to the televised atrocities of ISIS four years later. It is a story that takes place across five different countries and many characters, but all are united by a single arc: the collapse of political authority in the Arab world, and the unveiling of social conflicts—of tribe, of class, of religion—that had lain mostly dormant during the decades of dictatorship. The book narrates these spiraling crises through the eyes of a group of people who looked to the 2011 uprisings as a liberation, only to see their own lives torn apart in the aftermath. The author is Robert Worth, Contributing Writer at the New York Times Magazine and former Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center. Discussants include Hannah Allam, Middle East Bureau Chief, McClatchy Newspapers, and Joseph Sassoon, Associate Professor, Georgetown University, and former Fellow, Wilson Center.
  1. The Future of the Russo-Turkish Relationship with Congressman Gerry Connolly | Tuesday, April 26th | 12:00-1:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | When Russia annexed Crimea, the balance of power in the Black Sea region shifted, leading to escalating tensions between Russia and Turkey. The Kremlin’s intervention in Syria and operations along the Turkish border triggered Ankara’s shootdown of a Russian fighter jet. Today, relations between Russia and Turkey are at an all-time low. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to reduce operations in Syria may once again transform foreign policy for the two states. Congressman Gerry Connolly and the panel will discuss the future of the Russo-Turkish relationship and implications of recent events on security in the region, NATO, and US policy. We hope you can join us for this important and timely discussion. Other panelists may be found here. 
  1. The Changing Role of Egypt’s Private Sector | The Federal Budget and Appropriations: Democracy and Human Rights in the Middle East | Tuesday, April 26th | 1:30-3:00 | Project on Middle East Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | POMED is pleased to invite you to the release event for our publication, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2017: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East and North Africa.” This annual report, authored by POMED’s Executive Director Stephen McInerney and Deputy Director for Policy Cole Bockenfeld, provides a detailed analysis of U.S. funding and other support for democracy and governance in the Middle East over the past year and proposed assistance for the coming Fiscal Year. As the Obama Administration draws to a close with the Middle East experiencing widespread violent conflict and resurgent authoritarianism, speakers will reflect on the report’s key findings and on President Obama’s approach to supporting democracy and human rights in the region over the past seven years. How have the Obama administration and Congress responded, through aid and diplomacy, to the dramatic changes in the region since 2011? How has the United States reacted to Tunisia’s democratic transition, Libya’s struggle to establish a unity government, and Egypt’s dramatic regression on human rights? What are the most significant trends in U.S. funding for democracy and human rights in the Middle East? Speakers include Hisham Melham, columnist for Al Arabiya, Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, Stephen McInerney, Executive Director of POMED, and Cole Bockenfeld, Deputy Director for Policy at POMED.
  2. The Key to Nuclear Restraint | Thursday, April 28th | 3:30-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Why have some nations acquired nuclear weapons while others have refrained? In this seminar, Dr. Thomas Jonter will analyze Sweden’s Cold War plans to acquire nuclear weapons and explore why some states choose restraint. Sweden’s leadership nearly chose develop a nuclear weapon in the 1960s, but instead steered their country to become one of the most recognized actors in the disarmament movement. Drawing on recently declassified documents from Sweden and the United States, Jonter will present a comprehensive analysis of the Swedish nuclear weapons program—and why it was abandoned. Speakers include Thomas Jonter, Director of the Stockholm University Graduate School of International Studies, and Christian F. Ostermann, Director of the History and Public Policy Program.
  3. Special Event on Human Rights in Iran: Iranian Revolutionary Justice Film Screening and Panel Discussion | Thursday, May 12th| 6:00-9:00 | Bahai’s of the United States and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | May 14, 2016 marks the eighth anniversary of the imprisonment of seven Bahá’í leaders in Iran. Join us for a screening of the new BBC Persian documentary film Iranian Revolutionary Justice, which includes never-before-seen footage of the secret trial of eight Bahá’í leaders in Iran in the 1980s – all of whom were executed following the trial. The screening will be followed by a panel discussion with experts on human rights in Iran. Panelists include Salim Nakhjavani, University of the Witwatersrand; former prosecutor at Khmer Rouge tribunal Dokhi Fassihian, Freedom House, and Roxana Saberi (invited), author of Between Two Worlds: My Life and Captivity in Iran. The moderator will be Geneive Abdo, Atlantic Council.
  4. 5th Annual Transatlantic Symposium on the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy | Friday, April 29th | 9:00-3:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us on Friday, April 29 from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. for the 5th Annual Symposium on the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). This EU/US flagship security and defense symposium is organized by the Delegation of the European Union to the United States, in partnership with the Atlantic Council. The Symposium will take place at the United States Institute of Peace located at 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC. We are delighted to announce that Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Minister of Defense of the Netherlands will launch the 5th edition of the annual Symposium on the EU’s Common Security & Defense Policy (CSDP). The Minister will be joined by a number of other high-level military and civilian speakers from the EU, the United States, and NATO. Topics to be addressed this year include: New Threats and Challenges to European Security, Crisis Management in the EU’s Neighborhood, and Technology Capabilities and Readiness: The Way Forward. The agenda may be found here.
  5. After Hub-and-Spoke: US Hegemony in a New Gulf Security Order | Friday, April 29th | 9:30-11:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Regional transformation and chaos resulting from the Arab uprisings, the rise of the Islamic State (or ISIS) in the Middle East and beyond, shifting US global priorities, and the increasing influence of outside powers in the Gulf have created a new geopolitical context for the United States’ commitment to the security of the Gulf. How will the region’s new strategic trends and security dynamics impact US interests, priorities, and future force posture? Does this changing strategic environment herald a new approach to Gulf security that looks beyond a US-controlled hub-and-spoke model toward a new, multilateral approach? How can the United States best minimize risks and capitalize on the heightened engagement of European allies in the Gulf? Please join the Atlantic Council on Friday, April 29 from 9:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. for a discussion of a new report by Brent Scowcroft Center Senior Fellow Bilal Saab, entitled After Hub-and-Spoke: US Hegemony in a New Gulf Security Order and a debate on US global defense posture in the next decade and how it might affect future US designs in the region. Other panelists may be found here.
  6. Women’s Leadership in Conservation and Peace | Friday, April 29th | 9:30-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Women often play a critical but under-realized role in peace, prosperity, and the management of natural resources. Join us in a discussion of the cross-cutting benefits when women are leaders in natural resource management and conservation, with access to jobs and political participation. Panelists will explore current and emerging trends in programming to further empower women in conservation and peacebuilding. This event is cosponsored by Conservation International and the Wilson Center’s Women in Public Service Project. Speakers include Mayesha Alam, Associate Director, Georgetown Institute for Women Peace and Security, Georgetown University, Eleanor Blomstrom, Program Director, Head of Office, Women’s Environment and Development Organization, Roger-Mark De Souza, Director of Population, Environmental Security, and Resilience, Wilson Center, Melanie Greenberg, CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding, Milagros Sandoval, Manager, Environmental Policy, Conservation International.
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Peace Picks April 18-22

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 17, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. A Conversation on Jerusalem and the Future of the Peace Process with Daniel Seidemann | Monday, April 18th | 12:15-1:30 | Middle East Institute and Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Conflict Management Program of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) are pleased to host internationally renowned Jerusalem expert and activist Daniel Seidemann in a discussion with Al Arabiya TV’s Muna Shikaki about ongoing settlement activities in Jerusalem and challenges to an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Seidemann has observed that Jerusalem is becoming “the central arena for Israeli-Palestinian skirmishing of such intensity that developments there jeopardize the very possibility of a two-state solution and threaten to undermine both local and regional stability.” In the absence of a political dialogue, Israel is extending physical barriers and discussing ideas to more thoroughly separate the communities, particularly in Jerusalem. In this period of growing crisis, what steps can advocates of a two-state solution – in the region and in the U.S. and Europe – take to preserve the prospect? Daniel Serwer (SAIS and MEI) will introduce the program.
  2. Beyond Migration: The Refugee Crisis in Europe and the Challenges of Immigrant Integration | Monday, April 18th | 3:30-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Despite decades of immigration, even the most multicultural countries in Europe are struggling with the scale of the current refugee crisis, and the challenge of integrating the newcomers. This crisis, one of Europe’s biggest of the past century, has the potential to alter the political fabric of the continent and undermine the foundation of post-WWII transnational institutions. The political and humanitarian consequences of the EU’s deal with Turkey have drawn much attention. But what about those refugees who have already made the trip and are now settling in Europe, if only temporarily? Looking back, what lessons can European governments learn from successes and failures in integrating earlier generations of immigrants? Join us for a discussion of the dilemmas of immigration control in Europe, as well as the longer-term issues of immigrant integration, identity, and belonging. Speakers include Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, James Hollifield, Public Policy Fellow at the Wilson Center, and Riva Kastoryano, Senior Research Fellow, Center for International Research, SciencesPo, Paris.
  1. High Stakes at the Gulf Summit: What President Obama Should Get from the GCC Meeting | Tuesday, April 19th | 2:00-3:30 | Center for Transatlantic Relations and Human Rights First | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On April 21 President Obama will attend the Gulf Co-operation Council Summit in Saudi Arabia, with a series of crises confronting the Gulf monarchies. Syria, Yemen and Iran will be key components of the discussions, as well how to prevent violent extremism. Join us for a panel discussion featuring regional specialists on what Obama should achieve in the GCC meeting, and why it matters so much. Introductory remarks will be made by Ambassador Andras Simonyi, Managing Director, CTR. Speakers include Hala Aldosari, Visiting Scholar, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Brian Dooley, Director, Human Rights Defenders, Human Rights First, and Matar Ebrahim Matar, former member of the Bahraini Parliament. Mihai Patru, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations, will moderate.
  2. The Idea of Culture and Civilization in Contemporary Turkish Politics: Public Debate, Policy and Foreign Relations | Wednesday, April 20th | 9:30-2:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join us for a conference that explores new ideas among Islamist and secular intellectuals in contemporary Turkey and inquire whether novel understandings exist about the relationship between Islam and modernity, East and West, and the position of Turkey itself within them. The conference will also investigate the impact of these understandings on public debate domestically in Turkey and on its foreign policy, specifically its relations with the United States and Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. This event consists of three panels. Speakers and panels may be found here.
  1. The Value of Values: Reconsidering the Role of Human Rights in U.S.-China Relations | Wednesday, April 20th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Issues of ideology, values, and human rights are again moving to the top of the United States’ China agenda and underlie many frictions in U.S.-China relations. The competing virtue narratives and disparate systems of the United States and China fuel suspicions in the military, economic, and global governance spheres. Please join us for an examination of values, rights, and ideals in the U.S.-China relationship and in the evolution of regional and world orders. Speakers include J. Stapleton Roy, Founding Director and Distinguished Scholar at the Wilson Center, Sharon Hom, Executive Director, Human Rights in China, Zheng Wang, Global Fellow, and Robert Daly, Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States.
  1. Western Defense Reassurances to Gulf Arab After the Iran Deal: Are We on the Same Page? | Thursday, April 21st | 10:00-11:30 | International Institute for Strategic Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | You are invited to an IISS discussion meeting on Thursday, April 21st, on Western defense reassurances to Gulf Arabs after the Iran deal. Panelists include Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus of the Stimson Center, Michael Eisenstadt, director of The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, Caroline Hurndall, Head of the Middle East Team at the British Embassy, and Bilal Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council. The panel will discuss whether post-Iran deal arms sales to Gulf Cooperation Council countries meet the goal of reassurance, whether arms sales from different NATO counties are complementary or competitive, and how the sales are affecting the geopolitics of the region. Following the hour-long panel discussion, there will be a 30-minute Q&A session with the audience. The full event will be on the record and webcast live on the IISS website.
  1. Protecting Religious Minorities | Thursday, April 21st | 1:30-3:00 | United States Institute for Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Propelled by the atrocities against religious minorities in several Muslim-majority countries in recent years, particularly at the hands of the Islamic State group, senior religious leaders meeting in Morocco in January issued the Marrakesh Declaration to prevent such violence in the future. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and its co-hosts on April 21 as renowned Islamic legal scholar Sheikh Abdullah bin Bayyah, who designed the legal framework for the declaration and convened the Morocco meeting, discusses the next steps in ensuring the terms of this call to action can be implemented. The violence wrought by violent extremists creates an imperative for people in the Muslim world across sectarian, ethnic, and national lines to affirm positive teachings within the tradition, address historical points of disagreement and transform the underlying causes of violent extremism into peaceful change.The Marrakesh Declaration courageously acknowledges the oppression and violence against religious minorities within some predominantly Muslim countries. Inspired by the Charter of Medina, which was established in the time of the Prophet Muhammad to guarantee religious freedoms, the declaration presents a way to apply a religious legal and theological framework to uphold human rights. But much of the success of the Marrakesh Declaration will depend on how it is implemented. In this discussion co-hosted by the Network for Religious and Traditional Peacemakers and Sheikh bin Bayyah’s Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies, he will address the urgency of the Marrakesh Declaration in light of current events. He also will outline plans to work with individuals and organizations to use the declaration as a source of authority and accountability to advance the goals of this call to action.
  1. A Stronger UN for a Peaceful World—Conversation with Ambassador Natalia Gherman | Thursday, April 21st | 4:00-5:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Women in Public Service Projectand the Kennan Instituteinvite you to a discussion with Ambassador Natalia Gherman, candidate for United Nation Secretary General. Amb. Gherman will outline her unique perspective and goals for new UN leadership, before taking audience questions. Ambassador Natalia Gherman has previously served as acting Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of the Republic of Moldova. As a Chief Negotiator, she led Moldova towards the Association Agreement, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, and visa liberalization regime with the EU. She served as Ambassador to Austria and Permanent Representative to the UN Agencies in Vienna and the OSCE, and Ambassador to Sweden, Finland, and Norway.
  1. The Changing Role of Egypt’s Private Sector | Friday, April 22nd | 9:00-10:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a discussion about the evolving role of Egypt’s private sector and the emergence of new business models to meet the demands of sustainable development. Egyptian business leaders Mohamed El-Kalla (Cairo for Investment and Development), Dina Sherif (The Center for Entrepreneurship, AUC) and Tarek Tawfik (Federation of Egyptian Industries) will be joined by American attorney and investment adviser Samar Ali (Bone McAllester Norton PLLC) for an examination of the changing nature of private enterprise in Egypt. Egypt’s new generation of entrepreneurs and corporate leaders are increasingly prioritizing sustainable development, accountability, and responsible business practices as key tools for economic growth. The panel will discuss the drivers of change, the challenges that private business faces from the state, and how the U.S. government and business community can encourage the new trend. Randa Fahmy will moderate the discussion.
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Syria frays, Libya wobbles, Yemen improves

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 13, 2016 - 0 Comment

The Middle East and North Africa have become difficult to follow without a scorecard. Here is a quick update:

In Syria, the ceasefire appears to be unraveling. The rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra made gains this week in ceasefire territory. This opposition group extended their territorial holds in Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia provinces. This new offensive, though limited in extent, takes back some of the territory the Syrian regime grabbed during the Russian airstrike campaign in early 2016. Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliated group, was not a part of the ceasefire agreement, but other rebel groups, such as Jaish al-Islam, have collaborated with them. This poses a threat to the ceasefire holding and the next round of peace talks, planned for April 13.

Even though the opposition has taken back some territory, the regime still holds the upper hand at the negotiating table. The Russian-backed offensive and support allows Assad to keep his seat as the head of the regime. Russia does appear to want a peaceful solution to the crisis and proved so with the partial withdrawal of troops in Syria. The opposition says it wants a compromise, but they are not willing to compromise with their demand that Assad should be removed from power. The regime has spoken of a more inclusive government, but only with Assad as the leader. How successful this next round of peace talks will be is questionable. Neither side wants to compromise Assad’s position. His position is integral to both sides’ approach in achieving a peaceful solution.

The situation in Libya seemed to improve last week and the beginning of this week as the new unity government arrived in Tripoli. The UN-backed government faced competition from rivals in Tripoli and Tobruk. It seemed that the government in Tripoli was prepared to step down until Prime Minister Khalifa Ghweil declared otherwise. The eastern Tobruk government has not voted to formally recognize the unity government. This recognition is essential in order to “establish legitimacy.”

The new unity government will have to face the challenge of garnering support from the militias that backed the rival Tripoli government in the past. Though unity government Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj does not want to suggest that he needs this militia support, in fact it is imperative to gain the backing of these groups in order to implement real change and lessen the violence in Libya.

In Yemen, Saudi-led airstrikes on civilians continued in March. The Mastaba market incident left 120 dead on March 15. Peace talks on Yemen have been agreed upon, though, and this will hopefully lessen the impact of violence against civilians. The Houthis and President Hadi’s delegation will meet in Kuwait on April 18.

Recently President Hadi fired and appointed a new vice president, Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, and prime minister, Ahmed Obeid bin Daghr, to his government. The new vice president is a key army general. The Hadi camp thinks this move will strengthen it at the peace talks. Defrocked Vice President Khaled Bahah thinks the move will be detrimental and detract from Hadi’s legitimacy.

Nevertheless, the situation in Yemen looks more positive, as both sides have agreed on a ceasefire, implemented on April 10. The city of Taiz, home to 200,000 civilians, will be the key testing ground.

The Syrian ceasefire agreement is fraying, the new unity government in Libya is wobbling, and Yemen’s situation going into peace talks looks a bit better.

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Peace Picks April 11-15

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 10, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Egypt’s Former Foreign Minister on Regional Statecraft and Domestic Reform | Tuesday, April 12th | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Nabil Fahmy, former foreign minister of Egypt, for a discussion about Egypt’s political and socioeconomic challenges and its role in regional politics and stability. Egypt’s government is under pressure to deliver economic development, good governance, and increased security in light of growing terrorist threats. These challenges come amid growing regional tensions- from the conflict in Syria to the war in Yemen. How can the state better meet its domestic objectives and how can Egypt play an effective role in brokering greater Middle East stability?
  1. The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Obama Doctrine | Tuesday, April 12th | 1:00-3:30 | Middle East Policy Council | Email info@mepc.org to RSVP | Our panel will address Jeffrey Goldberg‘s essay, “The Obama Doctrine,” and how it impacts U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Please RSVP promptly for limited space. Speakers include James F. Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, Alireza Nader, Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation, and Fahad Nazer, Senior Political Analyst, JTG, Inc. and Non-Resident Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. The moderator will be Richard Schmierer, Former Ambassador to Oman and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Middle East Policy Council.
  1. The Fourth Annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture: The Politics of Memory in East Asia | Tuesday, April 12th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II last year brought another round of contentious memory politics in East Asia. Despite the seeming sameness of the debates, in fact the practices and norms of public memory have substantially altered since the end of the war, creating what speaker Carol Gluck calls a “global memory culture.” Changes in the law, politics, society, criteria of knowledge, and concepts of responsibility have transformed our understanding of what it means to do justice to the past.  How then do these changes relate to the politics of memory in East Asia today? Carol Gluck, George Sansom Professor of History at Columbia University, will speak.
  1. Outlook for Security and Integration of Albania and the Western Balkans | Wednesday, April 13th | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since the collapse of the communist regime more than two decades ago, Albania has undergone significant political, economic, and social reforms. Albania became a NATO member in 2009, a European Union (EU) candidate country in 2014, and signed a declaration of strategic partnership with the United States in 2015. Given the increasingly fragmented climate among EU member states over Europe’s capacity to overcome current challenges, the EU’s enlargement agenda has lost momentum. Meanwhile, instability in the Western Balkans has been fueled by unprecedented waves of refugees, and political and economic uncertainty to the South and East. As Prime Minister, H.E. Edi Rama plays a significant role in directing the path for Albania in EU accession negotiations and regional cooperation, particularly through the Berlin Process framework of annual summits in the Western Balkans. In his visit to Washington, DC, Prime Minister Rama will address Albania’s security priorities and goals for the NATO Warsaw Summit, and provide views on Albania’s reform progress.
  1. Supporting Tunisia’s Imperiled Transition | Thursday, April 14th | 8:30-12:15 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Tunisia remains the Arab Awakening’s last best hope. Its political transition is as remarkable as it is fragile—imperiled by both security challenges and significant socioeconomic obstacles. Join us for a discussion of how Tunisia and its international partners can forge a new and more constructive dynamic and reverse the country’s recent troubling trajectory. This event will launch a new Carnegie report entitled Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership With Tunisia. Panels and panelists may be found here.
  1. Turkey, its neighborhood, and the international order | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Increasingly, there are concerns about the direction of Turkey’s politics, economy, security, and foreign policy. Debate is growing about the Turkish economy’s vibrancy, and its commitment to democratic norms is being questioned. Moreover, against the backdrop of the chaos in the region, its ability to maintain peace and order is hindered. These difficulties coincide with a larger trend in which the global economy remains fragile, European integration is fracturing, and international governance seems under duress. The spill-over from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq has precipitated a refugee crisis of historic scale, testing the resolve, unity, and values of the West. Will these challenges prove pivotal in reshaping the international system? Will these trials ultimately compel the West to formulate an effective collective response? Will Turkey prove to be an asset or a liability for regional security and order? On April 14, the Turkey Project of the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will host a discussion to assess Turkey’s strategic orientation amid the ever-changing international order. Panelists will include Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan of the University of Maryland, and Francis Riccardone of the Atlantic Council. Cansen Başaran-Symes, president of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD) will make introductory remarks. Turkey Project Director and TÜSİAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci will moderate the discussion. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
  1. From ISIS to Declining Oil Prices: Qubad Talabani on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Challenges | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Opening remarks will be made by Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace. H.E. Qubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, will speak. Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center, will moderate. Please join us on April 14 for a discussion with Qubad Talabani, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG). Long an island of stability in a Middle East marked by conflict, the Kurdish region of Iraq now faces a perfect storm. Its finances have been severely affected by the dramatic decline in the price of oil, its main source of revenue. The KRG also faces a constitutional crisis because President Masoud Barzani’s term has ended without the Kurdish political parties finding a definitive way forward or agreement on succession. And the KRG’s Peshmerga military force is engaged with the United States and its allies in an extended offensive to rout the self-declared Islamic State extremist group and liberate the nearby city of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest. Amidst all of this, President Barzani also has indicated that the KRG will hold a referendum in 2016 on whether the region should seek independence from Iraq.
  1. A New Economic Growth Strategy for Pakistan: A Conversation with Pakistani Finance Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar | Thursday, April 14th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | When Pakistan’s current government took office in June 2013, the economy was under tremendous stress. Nearly three years later, estimates suggest that the economy could achieve 4.5 percent GDP growth in fiscal year 2015-16, which would be the highest rate in eight years. Inflation and interest rates have decreased, tax revenues have grown, and the fiscal deficit has shrunk. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves have crossed $20 billion for the first time in history. Meanwhile, the government recently had a successful 10th review from the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, however, the government confronts political, security, and energy challenges that have hindered a full economic recovery. At this event, His Excellency Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s finance minister, will unveil a new two-year strategy to place Pakistan’s economic growth on par with that of other emerging economies in South Asia. He will also speak about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan’s current security situation.
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Peace Picks April 4-8

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 3, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Is Europe Post-Secular? Religion and Politics in the European Union | Monday, April 4th | 12:00-1:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels have put religion back on the European agenda. François Foret will discuss his book, Religion and Politics in the European Union: The Secular Canopy, which analyzes the place and influence of religion in European politics. He presents the first ever data collected on the religious beliefs of European decision makers and how they act on these beliefs. Discussing popular assumptions such as the resurgence of religion, aggressive European secularism, and religious lobbying, Foret offers objective data and frameworks to analyze major issues in the contemporary political debate.
  1. The European Refugee Surge: Transforming Challenges into Opportunities | Tuesday, April 5th | 9:00-10:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The humanitarian catastrophe that is now unfolding at the gates of Europe raises profound challenges as well as opportunities to European nations. In the long term, growth will depend on how effectively they integrate in the labor market. The panel will ask the question: Which policies can ensure that this challenge is transformed into a success story? The report presentation will be followed by a panel discussion between American and European experts who will shed light on best practices in migration policy and lessons learned on both sides of the Atlantic. The event is part of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic EuroGrowth Initiative, focused on getting Europe back on the path to sustainable economic growth by convening top policymakers, business leaders, and academics who work to identify and apply best practices and policies on both sides of the Atlantic. Antonio Spilimbergo, Head of Mission to Turkey for the International Monetary Fund, will present a report. Other panelists include Moreno Bertoldi, Principal Advisor to EU Delegation to the US, and Laura Lane, UPS President of Global Affairs. Katerina Sokou, Kathimerini Greek Daily’s Washington DC Correspondent, will moderate.
  1. Global Military Spending and the Arms Trade: Trends and Implications | Tuesday, April 5th | 10:00-11:30 | The Forum on the Arms Trade Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Global military expenditure and the international arms trade are driven by changing economic circumstances, shifting priorities, emerging security threats, and regional and international instability. Examining the recent trends in the global arms market and in the budgets of government militaries allows us to identify potential hot-spots and future areas of concern. Each year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) releases data on current trends in military spending and international arms transfers. SIPRI’s Military Expenditure Database contains information on defense spending by almost all countries, and monitors broader trends that emerge over time. Likewise, SIPRI’s arms transfers database identifies top exporters and importers of conventional weapons. Drawn from open source documents, SIPRI’s databases provides analysis on the economic, political and security drivers that influence military spending around the world and offers insights into their implications for global peace, security and development. Please join us on April 5, 2016 to discuss the findings of SIPRI’s most recent data and the potential implications on U.S. national security and foreign policy. This event will present major findings and key trends in global military expenditures and international arms sales.This event is co-hosted by SIPRI, the Forum on the Arms Trade and the Stimson Center. Speakers includeAude Fleurant, Director, Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, SIPRI, Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center, and Aaron Mehta, Senior Pentagon Correspondent, Defense News. Rachel Stohl, Senior Associate, Stimson Center, will moderate.
  1. Latin America in International Politics: Challenging US Hegemony | Tuesday, April 5th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent years, the countries of Latin America have moved out from under the shadow of the United States to exercise their agency as active players in the international system. What changed? Why? And why did it take so long for that change to happen? A new book by former Latin American Program Director Joseph S. Tulchin, Latin America in International Politics: Challenging US Hegemony, explores the evolving role of Latin American states in world affairs from the early days of independence to the present.   Please join us for a book discussion featuring Dr. Tulchin along with commentary from two distinguished diplomats. This includes Juan Gabriel Valdés, Chile Ambassador to the US, and Luigi Einaudi, Former Assistant Secretary General of the Organization of American States. Cynthia J. Arnson, Director of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center, will moderate. A reception will follow.
  1. Saudi Arabia’s Regional Role and the Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | Wednesday, April 6th | 2:30-4:00 | Project on Middle East Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Saudi Arabia has long been one of the United States’ closest allies in the Middle East, among the largest recipients of U.S. arms sales globally, and perceived as a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. Nonetheless, there have always been serious questions regarding the costs of the U.S.-Saudi military relationship, which have become more pronounced over the past year. The Saudi military intervention in Yemen has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians, and recent executions in the Kingdom, including of nonviolent dissidents, have renewed longstanding concerns about the state of human rights in the Kingdom. In addition, concerns remain about Saudi support for extremist networks in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, as well as the impact of Saudi militarism on divisions throughout the region. How has Saudi Arabia’s role in the region changed in recent years, and what has driven these changes? What relationships have various factions in Saudi Arabia had with extremist movements throughout the Middle East and North Africa? What impact does U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia have on the Kingdom’s role in the region, as well as on human rights concerns within the country? How have recent events, such as the ongoing conflict in Yemen, Saudi’s role in the Syrian conflict, and mass executions within Saudi Arabia, affected the U.S.-Saudi relationship? And what might we expect for the future of bilateral relations. This will be a conversation with Andrea Prasow, Deputy Washington Director, Human Rights Watch, Amb. Stephen Seche, Executive Vice President, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, and Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). It will be moderated by Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED).
  1. Is There Any Hope for Peace Talks in Afghanistan? If Not, Then What? | Wednesday, April 6th | 2:30-4:30 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent months, the Taliban has intensified its insurgency in Afghanistan. It now holds more territory than at any time since 2001. Civilian casualties reached record levels in 2015, and scores of Afghans are fleeing the country. In an effort to finally bring an end to Afghanistan’s 14-year war, Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the United States have formed a Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QDC) to prepare the ground for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Despite periods of progress, this effort has so far fallen short. What will it take to launch and conclude a successful peace process? And if it fails, what’s next for Afghanistan? This event will consider these questions and others, with particular focus on the thinking of the four QDC countries. Speakers include Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow at Brookings, Raoof Hasan, Executive Director of the Regional Peace Institute in Pakistan, Barnett Rubin, Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Center on International Cooperation for New York University, and Andrew Small, Trans-Atlantic Fellow of the Asia Program at German Marshall Fund.
  1. Distract, Deceive, Destroy: Putin at War in Syria | Tuesday, April 5th | 2:30-4:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council for the release of Distract Deceive Destroy—Putin at War in Syria. While President Putin announced the end of Russia’s military operations with much fanfare, the modest forces withdrawn thereafter suggest that by no means is Russia’s military role in Syria over. Using digital forensic research and open source investigation methods, a new Atlantic Council report presents the reality of Russia’s Syrian campaign: Russia launched air strikes on hospitals, water treatment plants, and mosques. Russia used cluster bombs. Russia almost exclusively targeted non-ISIS targets—Truths that Russia will not admit, but truths that must be understood when negotiating with Russia as a potential partner. Panelists may be found here.
  1. A Conversation with NATO Secretary General H.E. Jens Stoltenberg | Wednesday, April 6th | 4:00-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Alliance is facing a broad range of challenges of unprecedented complexity and increasing urgency. Confronted with a newly aggressive Russia to its east and an arc of instability across the Middle East and North Africa, NATO must take bold and innovative steps to respond to a fast-changing security landscape. Secretary General Stoltenberg will join the Atlantic Council to discuss NATO’s strategy to deal with the serious challenges along the Alliance’s flanks, and outline the Alliance’s priorities for its summit in Warsaw this summer. Jens Stoltenberg has been Secretary General of NATO since October 2014 after a distinguished career in Norwegian politics. As Prime Minister of Norway from 2000-2001 and then 2005-2013, Mr. Stoltenberg played an instrumental role in strengthening Norwegian armed forces and fostering stronger transatlantic unity on challenges close to Alliance territory. During his tenure in the Norwegian government, he also served as Minister of Finance, Minister of Industry and Energy, and State Secretary at the Ministry of the Environment. Throughout his career, Stoltenberg has held a number of international assignments, including Chair of the UN High-level Panel on System-wide Coherence, Chair of the High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing, and UN Special Envoy on Climate Change. Mr. Stoltenberg holds a postgraduate degree in Economics from the University of Oslo.
  1. Looting and Trafficking of Antiquities in the Middle East | Thursday, April 7th | 9:30-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | While the world watched in horror as ISIS destroyed the ancient city of Palmyra, the terrorist organization was simultaneously conducting a second—and nearly invisible—form of cultural destruction: looting antiquities from archaeological sites. These artifacts, along with material culture from similarly plundered sites throughout the rest of the Middle East, have been funneled through a complicated network and sold to collectors throughout the world, most of whom are unaware of their origins. Join us as four experts discuss the global illicit antiquities market and its impact on how the modern world views the true value of these ancient artifacts. Speakers include Tess Davis, Executive Director, Antiquities Coalition, Iris Gerlach, Head of the Sanaa Branch of the Oriental Department, German Archaeological Institute, Monica Hanna, Egyptian archaeologist (via Skype), and Alexander Nagel, Research Associate, Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History.The moderator will be Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center.
  2. Securing development in insecure places | Thursday, April 7th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The defining development challenge for the next 15 years will be whether rapid progress can be made in conflict-affected places. The historical record is mixed. Some countries, for example Cambodia, have put conflict behind, achieved rapid economic growth, and brought down poverty levels significantly, while others, such as Afghanistan, continue to have stubbornly high rates of poverty with little discernable progress over the last decade. On April 7, the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings will host a discussion on the links between security and development. Japan International Cooperation Agency President Shinichi Kitaoka will lead off with a keynote address on the interaction between security and development and what Japan has learned from its development cooperation in Mindanao, Syria, and South Sudan. He will then join a panel discussion moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Homi Kharas.  Panelists include Sharon Morris, State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, Bruce Jones, Project on International Order and Strategy Senior Fellow, and Joel Hellman, Dean at Georgetown University. Afterwards, questions will be taken from the audience.
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Rula Ghani thinks Afghanistan is progressing

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 2, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Thursday, the Atlantic Council hosted “The New Afghanistan: A Conversation with Rula Ghani,” Afghanistan’s First Lady. Fred Kempe, Atlantic Council CEO and President, offered welcoming remarks, and former Ambassador to Afghanistan James B. Cunningham introduced Ghani. 2015 was the first full year in office for the “unity” government. It has had to deal with renewed Taliban violence.

Ghani underlined how important listening is in her position. When her husband entered office, she had no specific plan except to serve the people of Afghanistan, especially vulnerable ones. Ghani wanted to reflect the actual current situation in Afghanistan, as she believes the media has portrayed a different picture from reality on the ground. Journalists are so pressed to break a news story first that they are imprecise in their fact checking.

Several myths have arisen about Afghanistan, according to Ghani. The first myth is that the Taliban are winning. Ghani pointed out the Taliban does not control enough territory for this to be declared. The second myth is that the United States lost the war. The US was not at war with the Afghan people and came to take out Bin Laden. They accomplished this goal, so the war was not a loss. The next myth is that the 2014 electoral process was fraudulent. The UN Commission carried out three recounts and was unable to discover fraud on an industrial scale. Ghani thinks that democracies should believe in the voice of the people, so the 2014 vote should not be doubted.

Another myth she addressed was that of the unity government’s failure. It takes time to create a new government, and some trust should be put into this current one. Building the unity government is a long-term effort. It takes time to replace violence with the rule of law.

Ghani addressed the notion that women are worse off now and are not taking part in the peace process. Women constantly come to see her and raise concerns about violence in Afghanistan. As a result, an emergency fund for victims of violence has been created. Congregations of religious scholars gather to discuss women’s equal treatment and their relationship with sharia law. Afghanistan also has passed new regulations regarding sexual harassment in the workplace. The police aim to recruit 5,000 women and have now passed the halfway mark. The country is working to integrate women into all aspects of society. Integration in the cities is a much easier process than in the rural provinces, though. Providing education in the provinces is proving a difficult task.

In the audience question and answer portion of the talk, Ghani cited past mistakes regarding foreign development and investment projects. The USAID Promote Program aims to help women. Ghani does not want this program to repeat past mistakes. This type of program needs follow-up after workshops that supposedly give women skills for the workplace. The program needs to ensure that their work is substantial, so women can apply the new skills in a real-life, practical way.

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