Category: Ceighley Cribb

ISIS recruitment

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 29, 2016 - 1 Comment

On Thursday, the Middle East Institute and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies hosted ‘Recruiting for Jihad: The Allure of ISIS.’ Charles Lister, Resident Fellow at the Middle East Institute, Ahmet Sait Yayla, Terrorism and Radicalization Specialist and Chair of the Sociology Department at Harran University, Turkey, and Anne Speckhard, Adjunct Associate Professor of Psychiatry at Georgetown University and Director of the International Canter for the Study of Violent Extremism, all presented their thoughts on who ISIS attracts. Daniel Serwer, Professor of Conflict Management at Johns Hopkins SAIS and Scholar at the Middle East Institute, moderated.

Lister believes that every case is unique when it comes to who is recruited into ISIS. It recruits from all over. There is no single profile of a person most likely to join.Its strategies have been effective to the point where it is no longer only a regional terrorist organization, but a global one. In the past few years, ISIS has recruited about 50,000 people. The group now has a presence in countries in and around North Africa and the Middle East. ISIS has an unofficial presence in many other countries.

Lister attributes ISIS success in recruitment to five factors:

  1. Exploitation of chaos in Syria
  2. Military success
  3. Undermining of its rivals and adversaries
  4. Creation of a clear, alternative way of life
  5. Exploitation of media and social media

Though ISIS uses all these methods for radicalization, recruitment is most successful with personal contact, both over the Internet and in the privacy of homes. This makes forming effective counter-recruitment  difficult.

Lister suggested several counters to ISIS recruitment. Fighting ISIS directly on the battlefield, targeting its leadership and finance, working more with rebel groups on the ground, and enhancing border surveillance are all ways to combat ISIS. Lister added that encouraging a safe space for a healthy, dynamic debate on sensitive issues will help in the fight against the Islamic State.

Yayla spoke mainly on the ISIS presence in Turkey and Turkish fighters that joined ISIS. Out of the 5,000 people from Turkey currently fighting with various groups within Syria, around 1,200 to 1,400 are working with ISIS. These people keep passing the Turkish-Syrian border. On the border, villages are close together, and many of the people directly across the border are friends and family. Villagers and the ISIS Turkish fighters know each other well and do what needs to be done for one another. Many of the people passing these borders are smuggling weapons and supplies.

For ISIS recruitment in Turkey, social media has a large impact. Facebook videos of Turkish ISIS and Jahbat al-Nusra fighters convince some to join the groups. They subtitle these videos in Turkish to appeal to the Turkish audience. Many Turkish recruits worked previously with al-Qaeda previously. They reach out to their close circles of friends in order to recruit. Criminals from Istanbul and Ankara are attracted to ISIS as they need money. ISIS provides $200/month stipends. Living on the streets in Turkey is much worse to these people than living a better life with ISIS in Syria.

Speckhard has interviewed terrorists, defectors, and family members of terrorists. She believes ISIS has been successful in recruitment because of four factors:

  1. Representation of an alternative world order
  2. Promotion of its ideology
  3. Some level of social support
  4. Individual vulnerability

Speckhard focused on the individual vulnerability to recruitment. Desires for revenge and prior trauma make people vulnerable. Those not in conflict zones watch videos of places like Iraq and want to be a part of something. Unemployment is a big factor in recruitment. Sexual rewards, as an ISIS fighter is given a wife, are also a motivation in joining. ISIS provides immediate satisfaction and relief. People are drawn to this.

ISIS provides an alternative to marginalization. Speckhard pressed for a civil rights movement and more effective integration, especially in Europe. The solution to marginalization will have to be legally enforced. She added that it is important to work with Turkey and support Greece going forward, in order to lessen the number of vulnerable people.

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Peace picks February 29-March 4

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 28, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Analyzing the Results of the February 26 Iranian Elections | Wednesday, March 2nd | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The event will analyze the results of the February 26 elections for the Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, focusing on how these elections will influence Iran’s domestic and international policies. Panelists will also discuss recent political and economic developments in light of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Speakers include Bernard Hourcade, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and Senior Research Fellow Emeritus at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of Foreign Policy and Senior Fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative at Brookings Institution, and Mohsen Milani, Executive Director of the USF World Center for Strategic & Diplomatic Studies (CSDS) at the University of South Florida and Professor of the Dep’t of Gov’t & International Affairs. The moderator will be Haleh Esfandiari, Public Policy Fellow and former Director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
  1. Libya: What’s Next? | Wednesday, March 2nd | 3:30-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent weeks, policymakers in Western capitals have expressed an increasing willingness to intervene militarily against the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) in its Libyan coastal stronghold of Sirte, driven in part by an uptick in devastating attacks on Libya’s oil ports by ISIS fighters and the group’s expanding influence along Libya’s coast. Please join the Atlantic Council on March 2, 2016 for a discussion on the protracted struggle for political and military control over Libya. Claudia Gazzini will share her expertise and research on Libya’s recent developments, the rise of ISIS, and recommendations for the development of Libya’s institutions based on recent visits to Tripoli. Karim Mezran will moderate the discussion. As Senior Analyst for Libya, Dr. Claudia Gazzini oversees and directs International Crisis Group’s reporting and analysis on Libya. Dr. Karim Mezran is a Senior Fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, where he focuses on the political developments of North Africa.
  2. Internet Freedom in the Age of Dictators and Terrorists | Thursday, March 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe | The original promise of the internet as a mechanism for free exchange of information and greater democratization seems a dream from a distant past. Authoritarian leaders in China, Russia and around the world seek to build walls around their country’s internet and censor incoming information and online discourse, while in free societies we are grappling with the right balance between security and privacy of online information in the face of terrorist threats. The briefing will focus on internet freedom broadly, including censorship and surveillance; and trends in how internet companies are evolving to handle increased government requests from law enforcement. In addition, panelists will discuss the role of export controls in ensuring that U.S. and European technologies do not contribute to human rights abuses. The following panelists are scheduled to participate: Lisl Brunner, Director of Policy and Learning, Global Network Initiative, Rebecca MacKinnon, Director, Ranking Digital Rights, and Tim Maurer, Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  3. Anatomy of Authoritarianism in the Arab Republics | Friday, March 4th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Dr. Joseph Sassoon’s book, Anatomy of Authoritarianism in the Arab Republics, investigates the system of authoritarianism in eight Arab republics through the prism of more than 120 memoirs of senior officials and opponents. This book aims to enrich the understanding of authoritarianism that prevailed in these countries and the difficult process of transition from authoritarianism that began after 2011. Joseph Sassoon, Associate Professor at Georgetown University and former Fellow at the Wilson Center will give a talk, while Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center will moderate.
  1. Beyond 2016: Security challenges and opportunities for the next administration | Tuesday, March 1st | 9:00-4:15 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On March 1, the seventh annual military and federal fellow research symposium will feature the independent research produced by members of the military services and federal agencies who are currently serving at think-tanks and universities across the nation. Organized by the fellows themselves, the symposium provides a platform for building greater awareness of the cutting-edge work that America’s military and governmental leaders are producing on key national security policy issues. With presidential primary season well underway, it’s clear that whoever emerges in November 2016 as the next commander-in-chief will have their hands full with a number of foreign policy and national security choices. This year’s panels will explore these developing issues and their prospects for resolution after the final votes have been counted. During their keynote conversation, the Honorable Michèle Flournoy will discuss her assessment of the strategic threat environment with General John Allen, USMC (Ret.), who will also provide opening remarks on strategic leadership and the importance of military and other federal fellowship experiences. After each panel and discussion, participants will take audience questions. Panel information and panelists may be found here.
  1. Human Rights Abuses in Putin’s Russia | Wednesday, March 2nd | 2:30-4:00 | Atlantic Council | On February 27, one year ago, Boris Nemtsov was gunned down just steps away from the Kremlin. His murder has since become the symbol of the increasing oppression and human rights abuses in Russia under President Putin. To mark the one year anniversary of Boris Nemtsov’s death, the Senate Human Rights Caucus and the Atlantic Council will host a discussion on human rights abuses in Putin’s Russia. This briefing will also seek to examine the current political environment in Russia and address important questions, including: What human rights violations are occurring? How can policymakers support human rights in Russia? This will be a conversation with Senator Mark Kirk, Illinois senator, U.S. Senate, Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, Rob Berschinski, Deputy Assistant of State for the Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor for the U.S. Department of State, and Paula Dobriansky, Senior Fellow for the JFK Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. John Herbst, Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council will introduce and moderate the event.
  2. Violence and Gender: The Other Side of Pakistan’s Urban Unrest | Wednesday, March 2nd | 3:00-4:40 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Much of the international focus on violence in Pakistan’s cities tends to revolve around terrorism perpetrated by Islamist extremist groups. In reality, a variety of other major factors drive violence in urban Pakistan as well—including issues associated with water access, waste disposal, transport, and drugs and alcohol. In these cases, gender considerations play a key role. Canada’s International Center for Development Research (IDRC) and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) recently funded a two-year research project examining how gender and violence intersect in the megacity of Karachi, Pakistan’s financial capital and largest city, and in the twin cities of Islamabad/Rawalpindi, the federal capital and home to military headquarters, respectively. The research was jointly undertaken by the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi and King’s College in London. This event will highlight some of the project’s major findings and possible implications for international assistance programs in urban Pakistan. Speakers include Amiera Sawas, Researcher at Imperial College, London, and Daanish Mustafa, Reader of the Department of Geography at King’s College, London.
  3. The Syrian Jihad: A Book Launch with Charles Lister | Friday, March 4th | 12:00-1:15 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to announce the U.S. launch of the latest book by terrorism expert and Middle East Institute Resident Fellow Charles Lister, The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Evolution of an Insurgency (Oxford University Press, 2016). In the book, Lister assesses and explains the emergence of Sunni jihadist movements within Syria’s fledgling insurgency, charts their evolution, and situates them within the global jihadist project. Unprecedented numbers of foreign fighters have joined such groups, who will almost certainly continue to host them. The book scrutinizes the strategic and tactical lessons learned from other jihadist conflict zones, as well as the complex interplay between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and how their relationship has influenced the jihadist sphere both inside Syria and worldwide. Copies of the book in limited number will be available for purchase and signing at the event. MEI Vice President for Policy and Research Paul Salem will moderate.
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Peace Picks February 22-26

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 21, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Stalin’s “Revolution from Above”: Property Seizure in the Perm Region | Tuesday, February 23rd | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | Stalin’s “liquidation of kulaks as a class” began in the early 1930s with the seizure of peasants’ property. Dr. Suslov argues, using the Perm region as a case study, that the arbitrary nature of this campaign’s enforcement was by design, rather than an accident of application. Using the directives of the regional party bodies, he elucidates the relationship between the seemingly random application of “dekulakization” on the local level, and Stalin’s overarching goal to change the structure of Soviet society. Andrei Borisovich Suslov, Professor and Head of Modern and Contemporary Russian History Department at Perm State Humanitarian Pedagogical University.
  2. Egypt’s Enduring Security Challenges | Tuesday, February 23rd | 12:00-1:30 | Hudson Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Five years since the uprisings in Tahrir Square, Egypt has seemingly come full circle. With the Muslim Brotherhood crushed, the non-Islamist opposition shattered, civic groups demoralized, and a new military regime that enjoys significant popular support, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule appears secure. But how secure is Egypt? Beneath the facade of stability lies a far more challenging reality. With a population of over 90 million, the country is facing systemic political and economic problems. Frustrations are growing with the government’s lack of vision, while the Islamic State and other radical groups are actively seeking to exploit social and political tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. assessment of Egypt’s strategic importance is starting to change. Once a key pillar of America’s regional security alliances, today the country’s power and influence is greatly diminished. Given the new threats posed by sub-state groups to the security of the Egyptian public and homeland, the annual U.S. transfers of $1.5 billion to Egypt’s military seem woefully anachronistic. With a potential new crisis looming, what are America’s best options to help Egypt secure itself in this new era? On February 23, Hudson Institute will convene a lunchtime panel with top Egypt analysts Samuel Tadros, Michael Wahid Hanna, Amy Hawthorne, and Mokhtar Awad. Hudson Senior Fellow Eric Brown will moderate the discussion. The panel includes Samuel Tadros, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Michael Wahid Hanna, Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation, Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director at the Project on Middle East Democracy, and Mokhtar Awad, Research Fellow of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University. The event will be moderated by Eric Brown, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.
  3. Militancy, Border Security, and Democracy in the Sahel | Wednesday, February 24th | 8:30-4:00 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | This all-day conference brings together leading scholars from around the world to examine security and governance challenges in the Maghreb-Sahel, many of them concentrated along national boundaries. The permeability of borders, along with political vacuums and economic marginalization in the hinterlands, has transformed border communities into epicenters of identity-driven politics, militancy, violent conflict, and organized transnational crime. This event is co-hosted with the African Peacebuilding Network of the Social Science Research Council and the National Endowment for Democracy. This invitation is not transferrable without prior Carnegie approval. The first panel from 9:15 to 10:45 is called “Insecurity in Border Areas in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria.” Panelists include Amy Hawthorne, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, and Rebecca Murray, and will be moderated by Samba Tall. The second panel takes place from 11:00 to 12:30. This panel is called “Evolution of Security Threats in Mali, Mauritania, and Nigeria.” It features Anouar Boukhars, Boubacar N’Diaye, and Gbemisola Animasawun as panelists. Ismail Rashid will moderate. From 1:00 to 1:45 John Desrocher, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Egypt and Maghreb Affairs, will deliver the keynote address. From 2:00 to 3:00 the panel “Politics, Democracy, and Peacebuilding in the Sahel” will take place. Panelists include Kamissa Camara, Muhammad Fraser-Rahim, Cheri Baker, and Charles Ukeje. Cyril Obi will moderate.
  4. Chinese and Russian Border Disputes | Wednesday, February 24th | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | China and Russia are both continental powers which border fourteen nations—a tie for highest neighbor count on Earth. Throughout their respective histories, each has expanded and contracted, spawning countless border disputes. Dr. Alexseev and Dr. Zhao will examine historical Sino-Soviet and Sino-Russian border disputes and their resolution, drawing lessons about how Russia and China view territorial issues and what that history means for current disagreements, such as those over the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories and Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. This discussion is part of the China and Russia: On Their Own Termsseries, a joint project of the Wilson Center’s Kennan and Kissinger Institutes. Speakers include Mikhail Alexseev, Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University, and Quansheng Zhao, Professor of International Relations and Chair of the Asian Studies Program Research Council at American University.
  5. Kingdom at a crossroads: Thailand’s uncertain political trajectory | Wednesday, February 24th | 2:00-3:30 | Brookings Institution | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Thailand has been under military rule since May 2014, when General Prayuth Chan-Ocha and the Royal Thai Army seized power after deposing democratically elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Current Prime Minister Prayuth has systematically postponed elections on the grounds of prioritizing order and drafting a new constitution to restore democracy. Since the coup, Thai authorities have used the murky lèse-majesté law to curtail opposition to the monarchy, while the country’s economy has languished. On February 24, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host an event to explore the root causes of Thailand’s political crisis, the implications of an upcoming royal succession, and the possibilities for the road ahead. The event will be moderated by Senior Fellow Richard Bush. Panelists include Duncan McCargo, professor of political science at the University of Leeds, Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Don Pathan, an independent security analyst based in Thailand. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
  6. From Civil Resistance to Peaceful Resolution | Thursday, February 25th | 11:00-12:30 | U.S. Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since the Arab revolutions of 2011, unarmed resistance has become a major force in global politics, from Tunis to Tahrir Square and on to Ferguson, Missouri. Nonviolent movements have historically outperformed their violent counter-parts, but they don’t always succeed. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on February 25, as a panel of experts in this field of study and an Emmy-award winning news producer examine the challenges of building and sustaining nonviolent movements, and discuss lessons for scholars, activists, policymakers and practitioners.The panel will be composed of alumni and students from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. A leading conflict resolution expert who has worked with activists in Egypt, Syria and elsewhere will discuss how negotiations and nonviolent action can be used together for maximum impact. A scholar of the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa will consider the violent/nonviolent interplay and the role of strategic communications in dismantling that oppressive regime. Finally, an Emmy award-winning network news producer will show how nonviolent activists can better use the media to amplify their efforts. The panel will be moderated by Fletcher alumnus and USIP Senior Fellow Maria J. Stephan, author of the award-winning book Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, and co-editor of Is Authoritarianism Staging A comeback? Initial remarks will be followed by questions and answers with the audience. Panelists include Anthony Wanis-St. John, Associate Professor of International Peace and Conflict Resolution at American University, Dr. Liz McClintock, Founder and Managing Partner at CMPartners, LLC, and Executive Director and Chair of the Board of Directors of The Bridgeway Group, Josh Yager, Emmy Award-Winning network news producer, and Benjamin Naimark-Rowse, PhD candidate at The Fletcher School.
  7. Delivering on Democracy: A Discussion with Members of the Tunisian Assembly of the Representatives of the People | Thursday, February 25th | 2:00-3:30 | Project on Middle East Democracy and National Democratic Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) invite you to a discussion with members of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP) of the Republic of Tunisia. This event will provide an opportunity for the representatives to share their perspectives on the evolving nature of Tunisian politics, as well as the challenges and opportunities they face in trying to meet citizen expectations and address issues of youth employment and engagement. Les Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director of MENA Programs, NDI, will join as a discussant, and the panel will be moderated by Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, POMED. This event is made possible through a grant from the Institute for Representative Government to NDI and with the support of the Bureau for Educational and Cultural Affairs of the U.S. Department of State. The discussion will be led by representatives of the Assembly of the People of Tunisia including Lotfi Ali, Nozha Beyaoui, Haikel Ben Belkassem, Faouzia Ben Fodha, Zouhayer Rajbi, and Sana Salhi. Les Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director of MENA Programs at the National Democratic Institute will also take part in this discussion. Stephen McInerney, Executive Director of POMED will moderate.
  8. Advancing Reconciliation and Development in Sri Lanka | Thursday, February 25th | 3:30-5:00 | U.S. Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Six years after the end of the conflict in Sri Lanka, the country’s new president set out to address longstanding challenges of reconciliation, accountability and political grievance built up during decades of the country’s violent internal conflicts. Please join Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera at the U.S. Institute of Peace on Feb. 25 for a discussion, co-sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, of how the initiatives to advance reconciliation, post-conflict development and stronger democratic institutions are progressing. The conflict in Sri Lanka, which raged for over two decades, came to an end in May 2009 with the defeat of the insurgent Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. In January 2015, President Maithripala Sirisena, in a democratic election, unseated the administration that oversaw the war’s end in a surprise victory, promising to move the country toward reconciliation and sustainable development. Samaraweera told the U.N. Human Rights Council in September 2015 that the government fully recognizes that “the process of reconciliation involves addressing the broad areas of truth-seeking, justice, reparations and non-recurrence.” The Foreign Minister will offer an update on the progress toward sustainable peace in Sri Lanka, including plans for economic development. The remarks will be followed by a moderated discussion and a question-and-answer period with the audience. Ambassador Bill Taylor will offer welcoming remarks Nisha Biswal, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Affairs, will offer introductory remarks. Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation will moderate. Walter Lohman, Director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, will give closing remarks.
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Iran needs more than sanctions lifted

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 18, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Wednesday, the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary (IMF) fund hosted ‘After Sanctions: Challenges Facing the Iranian Economy.’ Masood Ahmed, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, gave a presentation on the condition of the Iranian economy during the past four years. He then participated in a discussion with Martin Cerisola, Assistant Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, Nadereh Chamlou, an international development advisor, and Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. Vali Nasr, Dean of the Johns Hopkins Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, moderated.

Ahmed explained how the past four years have been difficult for Iran. The introduction of harsh sanctions in 2011 hit the Iranian economy hard. Oil exports declined by nearly 50 percent, the economy shrank, the exchange rate declined, and inflation increased.

Removal of sanctions will boost the economy immediately: production and the export of oil will increase, the cost doing business will decrease, and transactions will become easier. Maintaining this boost in the long-run should be the goal. Some chronic problems existed prior to the sanctions, so the economy can only make a full recovery if these are addressed properly. Concentrating on all facets of the economy is not just important for Iran, but for the countries it trades with. Primary trading partners India, China, Turkey, and Iraq stand to gain immediately from the removal of Iranian sanctions.

Iran has to adjust in order to sustain a strong economy. Iran will have to:

  1. Live with the oil price fluctuations
  2. Create a better macroeconomic policy framework
  3. Construct a more conducive business environment
  4. Revamp its productive structure

With lower oil prices comes a big loss of revenue and growth. Iran will have to become less dependent on oil price volatility. Other challenges include improving the business climate, restructuring banks, and creating more employment in sectors with the highest productivity. Currently, the most employment is in sectors with the lowest productivity. Iran has one of the least flexible labor markets, so finding a creative solution to unemployment is a pivotal reform Iran should take on. Overall, though, the fundamentals of the Iranian economy are strong. The country is resource-rich, its market size is beneficial, it has a highly skilled labor force, and the infrastructure is there and only needs to be modernized.

Nasr asked what sort of investment Iran’s economy requires. Ahmed replied that investment is most needed for modernizing, improving, and sustaining oil production. Cerisola said they need enough investment to sustain eight percent growth projections. Two hundred million dollars is needed for oil alone.

The panel then addressed reforms. Chamlou said the parliament asked the government to submit another version of a six-year plan because not enough substance was in the original plan. Iran is in need of deep-rooted reforms, and she hopes that outside pressure and investors will bring about these reforms. With the amount of investment that will come in, the government and business sectors will both have to alter their practices.

Maloney then discussed how President Rouhani would help Iran open up to foreign investment. He was elected because of his focus on both prosperity and national security. He has put together a fantastic team to lead Iran into a better economic position. The ideological divide in Iran will challenge Rouhani. His political rivals will look to make certain opportunities more difficult for him. But Rouhani does have an excellent ability to build alliances and seems to be savvy about the issues he takes on.

Ahmed believes the removal of sanctions will help the Iranian economy, but it will not solve all the problems. Managing expectation and fostering consensus is critical to success. Structural challenges are formidable and require extensive reforms. Maloney added that if Iran does not see the economy boom quickly enough, that it could see some political backlash.

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Besieged

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 16, 2016 - 0 Comment

The Atlantic Council hosted ‘Inside the Sieges: Scope and Implications of Besieged Syria’ on Wednesday. Mohamad Katoub, Protection Officer for the Syrian American Medical Society, Valerie Szybala, Executive Director of The Syria Institute, and Jan Jap van Oosterzee, Middle East Policy Lead at PAX led the discussion, while Faysal Itani, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, moderated and Frederic C. Hof, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council offered opening remarks.

Katoub began by explaining the circumstances he and his family were under when they left Damascus. He had no milk to feed his son, and the situation was becoming dire. In a besieged area, people will do anything to survive, and the main concern is to feed the children. Katoub’s family decided it was time to seek a better situation. Katoub, his wife, and son were able to leave Damascus, as it is easier to go through checkpoints as a family. Katoub stated plainly that he does not want asylum. He wants to be able to return to Syria, which will only be possible if peace is secured.

In Damascus, nearly 5,000 people have died from cluster bombs. Smuggling medication past checkpoints is very dangerous, and there are not enough vaccinations to serve the entire population. The situation in the newly besieged area of Aleppo shows just how much the UN resolution for humanitarian aid needs to be implemented. Civilians do not have food, vaccinations, medication, and are suffering from barrel bombs. The civilians of Syria cannot wait for negotiations to succeed in order to receive aid.

Oosterzee explained that PAX has been working in Syria since 2003 and has worked with civil society activists even before the uprising. PAX has worked with local councils since the conflict began, too. PAX has received questions on why they are so focused on exact numbers. Having the correct numbers shows if there is a pattern. One of the trends in Syria is how starvation has become a weapon of war. The situation looks worse based on the data. Oosterzee pointed out that a lot of international attention helps a little bit.

Szybala talked about The Syria Institute’s Siege Watch report, which was written because recognition is needed of what is actually happening on the ground in Syria. The United Nations is not reporting the real damage. For instance, the UN only recognizes only 181,000 people in Damascus under siege, while the real total is close to 500,000. This report’s information was collected from contacts on the ground, who submit surveys on population  movements, deaths, and food amounts in their communities.

Siege Watch found that siege leads to economic collapse. Extortion and smuggling are far too common. Massive displacement occurs, from movement out of the area or from movement from one besieged area to another besieged area. Recruitment by the regime and extremist groups often takes place, as unemployment is high.

Current besieged areas include Idlib, Homs, Damascus and its countryside, and Deir Ezzor. Idlib is the only siege implemented by opposition troops. Civilians there have received airdrops from the Syrian government. The Syrian regime carries out a siege much more efficiently because it has the manpower and resources to do so. Collective punishment and the prevention of humanitarian aid are common. The Siege Watch report is critical to understanding the ground situation and to have exact information on war crimes.

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Peace Picks February 15-19

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 13, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Launch of the Task Force on the Future of Iraq | Tuesday, February 16th | 2:00-3:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The speakers will reflect on how lessons learned in a decade of US intervention in Iraq can be applied to stabilize the country beyond the defeat of ISIS. Ryan Crocker served as US Ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait, and Lebanon. He is now Dean of Texas A&M University’s George Bush School of Government and Public Service. Michael Barbero worked alongside General David Petraeus as a Deputy Chief of Staff for Multi-National Task Force – Iraq during “the surge” in 2007 and 2008. James Jeffrey served as Deputy National Security Advisor to George W. Bush (2007-08) and US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey. He is now the Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Nussaibah Younis is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, an expert on Iraqi politics, and author of the forthcoming book Invasion to ISIS: Iraq, State Weakness and Foreign Policy. The Task Force brings together twenty-five top Iraq experts from around the world to refocus attention on the underlying drivers of conflict in Iraq that must be addressed beyond the fight against ISIS. The Task Force will convene in Washington DC for the launch, and will then conduct fact-finding missions in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, Baghdad, and Najaf. They will report on their findings after the US presidential elections in an effort to encourage the new administration to adopt a long-term approach to the stabilization of Iraq.
  2. Chechnya: Russian Politics in Reflection | Wednesday, February 18th | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent weeks, the Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, has become the focus of attention in Russia. From the barrage of threats against opposition members, to the spontaneous anti-Kadyrov social media campaign, to the staged pro-Kadyrov rally in Grozny, the events have generated headlines and left observers struggling for interpretation. The speakers will reflect on these developments in the broader context of Russia’s political reality. Speakers include Alexandra Garmazhapova, journalist at the Novaya Gazeta in St. Petersburg, Anton Ryzhov, Starovoitova Fellow, and Denis Sokolov, George F. Kennan expert.
  3. Labor Dynamics in the Gulf | Wednesday, February 17th | 12:00-1:30 | Arab Gulf States Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Lower oil prices are challenging the traditional labor system in the Gulf states, built largely from a migrant labor force.The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington is pleased to host a panel discussion examining labor dynamics in the Gulf states focusing on the rules that regulate labor inside the Gulf Cooperation Council states, and some of the economic benefits of imported labor, as well as the challenges for rights protection and knowledge transfer. The discussion will cover shifting labor demographics in the Gulf with the decline in oil prices and what the economic downturn will mean for the labor market and the overall economy of GCC states. It will delve into labor market reform and diversification efforts as well as the development of knowledge economies in the Gulf. Speakers include Attiya Ahmad of George Washington University, Omar Al-Ubaydli of George Mason University, and Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of Rise University. Karen E. Young, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington will moderate.
  4. Mounting challenges in the Middle East for Japan and the United States | Wednesday, February 17th | 1:00-3:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As various related and converging factors continue to drive instability in the greater Middle East, the rules of the regional game are changing and the ability of the United States to shape the outcomes is declining. With more international stakeholders involved and competing strategies at stake, the issue of burden-sharing becomes more prominent. While often overlooked in Washington, Japan’s interests in the region provide both opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy in the Middle East region. On February 17, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will hold a public forum bringing together experts from Japan and the United States to examine the economic and security issues in the Middle East that impact American and Japanese interests, values and strategies. Panelists will analyze areas where these interests may diverge, and how both sides can identify and develop effective policies. After the panel discussion, the speakers will take audience questions. Richard C. Bush III, Director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies, will moderate. Speakers include Kunihiko Miyake, President of the Foreign Policy Institute, Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy, Daniel L. Byman, Research Director of the Center for Middle East Policy, and Yukiko Miyagi, Research Fellow for the Institute of Middle East, Central Asia, and Caucasus Studies at the University of St. Andrews.
  5. Women Leaders Against Corruption: What Works | Thursday, February 18th | 2:00-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The fight against corruption is becoming increasingly prominent across much of the African continent. Corruption causes wasted development potential, poor governance, and lowered government legitimacy in the eyes of citizens. But while corruption remains a serious impediment to growth and good governance, some countries and leaders in Africa are making significant strides towards ending it. Given these challenges, what role can public servants have in ending corruption, and how can women leaders head the fight against graft? What lessons can we learn from their successes? This discussion will bring together high-level women leaders in the public sector from across the African continent to assess the best tactics for combatting corruption. Join the Women in Public Service Project in partnership with the Africa Program and Rule of Law Program at the Wilson Center 2–4pm on February 18th, 2016 in the 6th floor auditorium for a discussion on Women Leaders Against Corruption: What Works. This event will be livetweeted and webcasted. Follow the Africa Program Twitter account @AfricaUpClose and the Women in Public Service Project Twitter account @WPSProject and contribute to the conversation using the hashtag #anticorruption. Speakers include Betty Bigombe, Distinguished African Scholar, Margart Nnananyana Nasha, former Speaker of Parliament for the Republic of Botswana, Aminata Niana, former Special Advisor to the President of the Republic of Senegal, Lindiwe Mazibuko, former leader of the Official Opposition in the Parliament of South Africa, and Gwen Young, Director of the Women in Public Service Project.Low Oil Prices and Economic and Political Stability in Latin America | Friday, February 19th | 12:30-2:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The collapse in crude oil prices since mid-2014 has shaken the foundation of global energy markets, with far-reaching economic implications in Latin America. Today, governments across the region face fiscal constraints, market upheaval, challenges to longstanding fuel subsidy programs, and lagging economic growth. Some are adapting creatively, while others are not. With this volatile landscape as a backdrop, our distinguished panelists will address the following questions and more: What impact have low oil prices had on macroeconomic trends in Latin America? Which countries are best positioned to weather the current price environment? To what degree have oil prices impacted the fiscal position of key Latin American producers? How are fiscal constraints influencing government policies in the region? How is the current price environment impacting the oil production outlook in Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and Venezuela? How have upstream investment trends in the region changed in the face of falling prices? Speakers include Juan Gonzalez, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Western Hemisphere Affairs in the US Department of State, Daniel Kerner, Practice Head of Latin America for the Eurasia Group, Luisa Palacios, Head of Latin America for Medley Global Advisors, Lisa Viscidi, Program Director at Inter-American Dialogue, and Jason Marczak, Director of the Latin American Economic Growth Initiative at Atlantic Council. David Goldwyn, Chairman of the Energy Advisory Group at the Atlantic Council will moderate. Richard Morningstar, Founding Director of the Global Energy Center at Atlantic Council, will make welcome remarks.
  6. Who we really are: A conversation with Syrian refugees in America | Friday, February 19th | 3:30-5:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Syrian crisis has cost the lives of nearly 250,000 people, displaced nearly half of the population, and sent 4.6 million Syrian refugees into neighboring countries. The United States has taken in approximately 2,500 Syrian refugees since 2011, and the Obama administration announced that it plans to admit an additional 10,000 refugees this year. As debates over refugee resettlement facts and figures continue within a polarized election cycle, a real need exists to better understand the lives and experiences of refugees. On Friday February 19, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at Brookings will host a conversation with recent Syrian refugees on their experiences of forced migration, resettlement, and integration in the United States. Robert McKenzie, visiting fellow for the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks, and Leon Wieseltier, the Isaiah Berlin Senior Fellow in Culture and Policy at Brookings, will moderate the conversation. Speakers include Kassem Eid, activist for Syria. Mariela Shaker, concert violinist from Aleppo, Qutaiba Idlbi, activist for Syria, and Taha Bali, assistant in neurology at the Massachusetts General Hospital. Following the conversation, the panelists will take questions from the audience. This event is the latest in a series of Foreign Policy at Brookings events focusing on the Syrian refugee crisis and the U.S. and international community’s response.
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