Category: Ceighley Cribb

A view from inside the nuclear negotiations

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 12, 2016 - 0 Comment

On February 9, Wilson Center hosted ‘Inside the Iran Negotiations: A Conversation with Chief Negotiator Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman.’ Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO of the Wilson Center, introduced Sherman, and Robert S. Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Director of International Security Studies at the Wilson Center, prompted questions for Sherman to consider.

After nearly 20 months of negotiations, a nuclear deal with Iran was reached in 2015. The negotiations took place over a four-year period. The first two years of talks did not accomplish much, but Sherman was able to assess the Iranian mindset.

A major change occurred when President Hassan Rouhani assumed power. While Rouhani is a part of the revolutionary zeal and is a cleric, he is not a strict hardliner unwilling to compromise. He had to address the serious economic problems the regime faced, or else face dissent from dissatisfied constituents. After Rouhani came to power, Sherman took part in secret bilateral talks with Iran. Ultimately, the secret negotiations were brought to the formal table, as Iran proved it was serious about halting production of nuclear material.

The P5+1 formal negotiations proposed a comprehensive plan of action where Iran would no longer enrich uranium beyond a specified level and refrain from producing plutonium. Sherman claimed that this deal was written so Iran could never have a nuclear weapon. If Iran breaks its end of the bargain, the US will reimpose sanctions and military action will be considered.

She added that though sanctions never stopped Iran from producing nuclear material, they did bring Iran to the negotiating table. The nuclear deal is written as a long-term solution. It will remain durable because it is in everyone’s best interests to comply. The deal also guarantees access to Iranian facilities. Iranian production of nuclear material will be closely monitored. The only way for Iran to sidestep this deal would be to produce nuclear material covertly, which is nearly impossible.

Negotiations not only involved the US and Iran coming to an agreement, but also creating a solution the P5+1 could agree upon. Getting all actors to agree was a complex process. Sherman teased that she negotiated with the P5+1 countries the most, and only negotiated a fair amount with Iran. Outside actors affected the negotiation process, too. She dealt with Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu’s criticism of the deal, always remaining in contact with Israel throughout the negotiation period. The US also shared information about the process with Israeli experts and Gulf allies, and always looked for outside input.

Sherman said implementation will be a major challenge. The US received information that someone in Iran had injected gas into a more advanced centrifuge, which the Iranian negotiators seemed to know nothing about. Whether it was someone trying to sabotage the deal, or the restrictions were understood, is unclear.

If there is significant noncompliance in the future, a 30-day period is available to resolve the problem. Communication and transparency is key to this deal’s success. A channel of communication has been established, which has boosted US-Iranian relations, but it is unclear whether communication will generate trust. Grievances are deep on both sides.

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Peace picks February 8-12

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 7, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. The Syrian refugee crisis and the United States | Monday, February 8th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino have stoked fears among some Americans regarding the possible entry of Syrian refugees into the United States. Concerns exist that, along with refugees, members of the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations might enter the country and carry out attacks against the U.S. homeland. These fears, coupled with often vitriolic political rhetoric, have alarmed American Muslims. What is the true level of danger refugees pose? How can the United States best contribute to managing the Syrian refugee problem? Given the 2016 presidential elections, what options are politically viable? On February 8, the Center for Middle East Policy and the Governance Studies program at Brookings will host a discussion on the U.S. role in addressing the Syrian refugee crisis. The panel will include Elizabeth Ferris and William Galston of Brookings, experts on refugee resettlement and U.S. politics respectively, as well as Robert McKenzie, a new Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World visiting fellow whose research focuses on Muslim communities in the West. Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow and Research Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the panel. Following the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions. This discussion is part of a series of Foreign Policy at Brookings events focusing on the refugee crisis and the U.S. and international community’s response.
  2. Cross-Straits Series: Conflict in the Taiwan Strait? | Tuesday, February 9th | 12:30-2:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Taiwan’s elections on January 16 resulted in both its new president and, for the first time, a majority of legislators being from pro-independence parties. This has raised concerns about how Beijing will react. The official China Daily stated after the election that if president-elect Tsai Ing-wen does not accept that Taiwan is part of China, she will be leading Taiwan in the direction of “conflicts and tension.” Underscoring the point, the mainland military recently conducted amphibious landing exercises along its coast opposite Taiwan. Would China actually use force against Taiwan? And under what circumstances? What are the current capabilities of China’s military? Does it have the ability to force Taiwan to unify with the mainland? This Atlantic Council event is part of the Cross-Straits Series of the Brent Scowcroft Center’s Asia Security Initiative, which examines strategic and current affairs surrounding cross-straits relations. Speakers include Roger Cliff, Atlantic Council Nonresident Senior Fellow, Tiffany Ma, Director of Political and Security Affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research, and Thomas L. McNaugher, professor at Georgetown University. The moderator is Shannon Tiezzi, Managing Editor of The Diplomat.
  3. Inside the Iran Negotiations: A Conversation with Chief Negotiator Wendy Sherman | Tuesday, February 9th | 4:00-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | What was it like to be inside the room during the roller coaster saga of the historic nuclear deal with Iran? What role did personal relationships and domestic politics play in this landmark accord? What were the key moments that made success possible or could have threatened the deal? And what lessons can be learned from U.S.-Iranian negotiations? Join us for an extraordinary event as Chief U.S. Negotiator Ambassador Wendy Sherman takes us inside the room for an intimate look at the personalities, politics and negotiating dynamics that defined the nuclear agreement. Wendy Sherman, Director, President, and CEO of the Wilson Center, and Robert S. Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Academic Relations at the Wilson Center, will also speak.
  4. Inside the Sieges: The Scope and Implications of Besieged Syria | Wednesday, February 10th | 11:30-1:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The images of emaciated children in the besieged Syrian town of Madaya drew international attention in January 2016. Meanwhile, the opposition Syrian High Negotiations Committee’s unanswered demand for lifting of sieges, as stipulated in UN Security Council resolution 2254, threatens to derail Syria peace talks in Geneva. Key international leaders’ calls for implementation of the resolution, aimed at ending the violence, have not resulted in access to besieged areas. On February 10, 2016, please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for a discussion on the scope, scale, and policy implications of the ongoing siege crisis. Mohamed Katoub will share his experiences as a dentist and medical worker from the besieged Damascus suburb of Douma. Valerie Szybala will present the findings of the newly released Siege Watch report that indicates there are well over 1 million Syrians under siege in Syria, and that the Syrian government and its allies are the main parties besieging civilian populations. Jan Jaap van Oosterzee will examine the implications of the sieges, and Faysal Itani will moderate the discussion. Dr. Mohamed Katoub is the Public Relations Director for the United Medical Office of Eastern Ghouta. Valerie Szybala is the author of several influential reports including Slow Death: Life and Death in Syrian Communities under Siege and Assad Strikes Damascus. Jan Jaap van Oosterzee has been working on Middle East programs in various capacities with PAX, an international peace organization based in the Netherlands. Faysal Itani focuses on the war in Syria and its regional impact. Ambassador Frederic Hof specializes in the conflict in Syria.
  5. The future of securing global cities | Wednesday, February 10th | 2:00-3:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On February 10, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will convene a panel discussion to introduce Securing Global Cities, a new project based in Foreign Policy’s Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. Securing Global Cities will be co-chaired by Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and General Ray Odierno, former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army and JP Morgan Chase Senior Advisor. It is part of the Global Cities Initiative, a joint project of the Brookings Institution and JP Morgan Chase. The goal of the project is to help cities around the world improve the physical safety of their citizens from various forms of violence. The overarching motivation of the project is the belief that cities have much to learn from each other by analyzing systematically and sharing best practices that strengthen their roles in a globalized world, bolster their economies, and protect their communities and citizens. The project will identify different types of threats–from terrorists to narcotraffickers and other international criminal networks, gangs, insurgents, and abusive security forces–and examine the various tools that governments can deploy to address these diverse and complex problems. The tools will include reformed and strengthened police forces, justice systems, paramilitary and military institutions, intelligence capabilities, and a range of other instruments. The discussion will be moderated by Martin Indyk, executive vice president of Brookings. Following the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions. JP Morgan Chase is a donor to the Brookings Institution. Brookings recognizes the value it provides is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment. This event will be live webcast. Join the conversation on Twitter at #GlobalCities.
  6. Five Years In: The Legacy of the Arab Spring | Wednesday, February 10th | 2:15-5:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | During the past five years the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen dictators toppled, new terrorist movements seize large swaths of territory, civil wars waged, and the regional order recast. Amidst a region awash in this protracted turbulence that shows no signs of soon abating, this event will explore the lasting legacy of the Arab Spring as we approach its five-year anniversary. Please join us as we discuss the ways in which the fateful events of 2011 irreversibly changed the MENA region. This event is composed of two panels. The first panel is called The Makeup of Post-Arab Spring Politics. It will take place from 2:15 to 3:45. This panel will explore the most notable effects of the Arab Spring on political and governance issues in the MENA region. Panelists will seek to differentiate between developments that are passing phenomena and those that will have a lasting impact on the region’s political fabric. Speakers include Shadi Hamid, Senior Fellow for the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, Paul Salem, Vice President for Policy and Research at the Middle East Institute, and Robin Wright, Wilson Center-USIP Distinguished Fellow. The moderator will be Marina Ottaway, Middle East Fellow at the Wilson Center. The second panel is called Physical Destruction and Prospects for Reconstruction. It will take place from 4:00 to 5:30. This panel will analyze the physical toll incurred by five plus years of violent turmoil and will discuss the scale of damage sustained across the region and will evaluate the range of effects such damages will have on regional affairs during the years to come. Speakers include Richard Cincotta, Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and Director of the Global Political Demography Program at the Stimson Center, Marwa Daoudy, Assistant Professor in International Relations at Georgetown University, Nadim Khouri, Independent Researcher at the World Bank, and Erika Weinthal, Lee Hill Snowdon Professor of Environmental Policy and Associate Dean for International Programs at Duke University. The moderator will be Henri Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.
  7. DHS: Progress in 2015, Goals for 2016—A Conversation with Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh J. Johnson | Thursday, February 11th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Wilson Center as Secretary Jeh C. Johnson, the fourth Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, delivers his final State of Homeland Security address, entitled “DHS: Progress in 2015, Goals for 2016.” Secretary Johnson oversees the United States’ third largest Cabinet department and leads the nation’s efforts to counter a broad range of threats, from terrorism to natural disasters. Secretary Johnson’s remarks will be followed by a question & answer session with the Center’s Director, President & CEO Jane Harman.
  8. HFAC Subcommittee Hearing—Jordan: A Key U.S. Partner | Thursday, February 11th | 2:00-5:00 | Rayburn House Office Building | This hearing will be held by the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. Witnesses include the Honorable Gerald M. Feierstein, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the State Department, Paige Alexander, Assistant Administrator for the Bureau for the Middle East at the U.S. Agency for International Development, and Fatema Z. Sumar, Regional Deputy Vice President of the Department of Compact Operations at the Millennium Challenge Corporation.
  9. Arab Voices on the Challenges of the New Middle East | Friday, February 12th | 9:00-10:15 | Carnegie Endowment | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is pleased to host a review of its first Arab Experts Survey. The results of the survey, conducted in English and Arabic, represent the views of more than one hundred accomplished political thinkers representing almost every Arab country and answer broad questions around terrorism and extremism, civil war and foreign intervention, sectarianism, corruption, and governance. The survey is part of Carnegie’s Arab World Horizons project, an effort to examine the social, political, and economic forces shaping the Arab world. Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Perry Cammack, Associate in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, and Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, will discuss the findings of the survey, and Joyce Karam, Washington Bureau Chief for Al-Hayat, will moderate. Join the conversation on Twitter with #ArabWorldHorizons. Registration will begin at 8:30 a.m. A light breakfast will be served. The discussion will begin promptly at 9:00 a.m.
  10. The Yemen Quagmire | Friday, February 12th | 12:00-1:30 | Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us for a discussion with Amat Alsoswa, former Yemeni Cabinet Member, Leslie Campbell, NDI, Andrew Plitt, USAID, and Charles Schmitz, MEI, who will discuss the deepening complexity of the conflict, the growing humanitarian crisis, the challenges of delivering aid to a suffering population, and prospects for peace talks and an end to the fighting. Daniel Serwer, Senior Research Professor of Conflict Management at Johns Hopkins SAIS will moderate.
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Russians are resigned

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 6, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Thursday, the Wilson Center hosted Natalia Zubarevich, professor at Moscow State University and Director of the Regional Program at the Moscow-based Independent Institute for Social Policy. Zubarevich discussed how the Russian financial crisis involves all of the regions of Russia and all aspects of economic development. The Russian economy has stopped growing, due in part to sanctions and largely due to the fall of oil prices.

Zubarevich concludes that trends differ from previous crises. Regional budgets have destabilized, investment has declined, incomes and wages have declined, and industrial output has dropped. Decline stretches across all sectors, but the unemployment rate still remains low. The devaluation shock reduced incomes and wages, hurt investment, and affected the consumption and processing industries. A deepening of the Russian economic crisis is impending.

Investment has plummeted by 8 percent, declining in 51 regions. Real money incomes declined in 78 regions, with the worst effects felt in the Urals, Volga, and the Northwest. In only three regions is the construction sector growing; otherwise, a 10 percent construction decline is seen throughout Russia. The only noteworthy industrial growth is in those regions that specialize in defense, as the federal budget funds defense spending. Moscow has pushed regions to cut expenditures. Forty-one have cut education spending, which could lead to a less-skilled workforce in the future. The Urals and the Northwest regions have been affected intensely.

Cities and smaller towns have differential factors that set them apart from one another. The smaller towns’ financial crisis is a result of industrial output decline, while large cities’ economic woes come from the weakening of incomes and purchasing power. The biggest risk of the crisis in small towns is growth of unemployment. Labor migration is accelerating. Those qualified in IT sectors seek jobs abroad, so some of the most skilled workers are leaving Russia.

The unemployment rate is 5.8%. No significant changes are foreseen. Russia created a specific model of labor that could adapt to market fluctuations. The Russian government and businesses will drop people down to part-time work. This is acceptable to citizens. The workers’ mindset is that there is still paid work available, so there is no need to protest and demand immediate improvement of their situation. The shrinkage of the working age population contributes to this low unemployment rate, too. A very small generation born in the 1990s is coming to the labor market, while a very large generation born in the 1950s is leaving the market simultaneously. The labor market will be reduced by 10 to 14 percent by 2025.

The Russian middle class, which has enjoyed access to global consumer goods, will now have to adjust their lifestyles due to the financial crisis. But the working classes will not protest. There is no real trust between neighbors, so Zubarevich does not see large clusters of people rising up to protest economic conditions. People are dissatisfied, but are ultimately surviving in the current economic conditions. Russia will continue to face its economic stagnation. Full recovery is not in sight. But Russians are resigned to their circumstances.

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Iranian aspirations

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 5, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Wednesday, the Wilson Center hosted ‘Iranian Public Opinion on Foreign Affairs on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections.’ Ebrahim Mohseni, Senior Analyst at the University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research, presented poll findings conducted in August 2015 and January 2016. William Miller, Senior Scholar at the Wilson Center, Paul Pillar, Researcher in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and Robin Wright, Wilson Center-USIP Distinguished Fellow, added remarks following Mohseni’s presentation. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, moderated.

Parliamentary elections in Iran take place in about a month. The survey is representative of a broad population, taking opinions from all across Iran. A high voter turnout is expected, with nearly 67 percent of the population anticipated to vote. Mohseni described the government’s strengths and weaknesses. Security and improving Iran’s relations with European countries are where citizens believe the government is doing a fine job. People are divided on whether the economy is improving. Citizens believe the government has not made sufficient progress at all when it comes to reducing unemployment. Mohseni believes the next parliament should try to focus on unemployment and economic problems, as there is big dissatisfaction throughout Iran on these issues. Providing solutions to these problems will promote stability.

Around 76 percent of the surveyed population supported it the Iran-US nuclear deal in August, but that number has since declined due to possible new US sanctions. Iranians are disappointed that all santions are not being lifted. Only 34 percent think that the US will live up to its end of the deal, and only 38 percent believe US-Iran relations will improve.

Almost two-thirds of the population thinks Iran should send military personnel to Syria. Fighting ISIS, protecting Shiite religious sites, preventing terrorists from nearing Iran’s borders, and protecting Syrian civilians were listed as reasons. Many also believe that helping out with the Syria situation will spread Iran’s regional influence while decreasing Saudi Arabia’s influence. Iran is split down the middle when it comes to potentially collaborating with the US against ISIS because people believe the US is not sincere in its efforts. They believe the US wants to increase its own influence in the Middle East, protect Israel, topple Assad, and decrease Iran’s standing in the region.

Wright explained that though Iran is still a revolutionary state, the passions of the revolutionary period are no longer relevant. Iran is now more practical. Iranian attitudes are very normal as the economy is the most important issue to citizens. She is interested in seeing a poll after the first round of elections.

Pillar agreed with Wright’s point, saying the Iranians really are similar to Americans when it comes to concerns about the economy. How Iran sees the US is how the US sees Iran: suspicions exist on both sides on whether promises will be upheld, though Iranians have more well-founded suspicions on the nuclear deal. Iranians’ expectations of the economic benefits are too high and the time frame in which they hope to see them realized infeasible.

Miller believes Iran’s civil society is both fairly open and revolutionary in attitude, which demonstrates the stability of the regime. These surveys provide assistance to US policymakers and add crucial data necessary to evaluate how Iranians perceive the US and its actions.

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Peace picks February 1-5

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - January 31, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Fifteen Years of Fighting Terror: Lessons for the Candidates | Monday, February 1st | 1:00-2:30 | Open Society Foundations | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Despite a significant investment of personnel and money, current policies have mostly failed to stop violent extremism and instability from spreading across the Middle East and North Africa. Saferworld, a London-based NGO that works for peace in more than 20 countries, will release three reports analyzing lessons from 15 years of counterterror and stabilization efforts in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen. The reports conclude that the U.S. approach to counterterrorism, stabilization, and state building has been counterproductive—and could be improved by focusing strategically on peace, relying less on the military, taking a tougher line on bad governance, and working more closely with civil society. An expert panel will discuss the policy and operational impacts of the recommendations derived from these case studies. The panel discussion will be followed by Q & A. Speakers include Larry Attree, Head of Policy for Saferworld, Sarah Chayes, Senior Associate for the Democracy and Rule of Law Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Richard Fontaine, President of the Center for New American Security. Scott Shane (moderator) is a national security reporter for the New York Times.
  2. Pin-Down Diplomacy: How Wrestling Promotes US-Iran Ties | Tuesday, February 2nd | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Much as “ping-pong diplomacy” helped break the ice between the United States and China in the 1970s, “pin-down diplomacy” between the wrestlers of the United States and Iran has been instrumental in changing perceptions about Iranian and American society, and building bridges between sports communities and ordinary citizens. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion about athletic exchanges between the United States and Iran and the role they have played and can continue to play in promoting better understanding between the peoples of these two long-time adversaries. Speakers include Greg Sullivan, Senior Adviser for Strategic Communications and Public Diplomacy in the State Department’s Office of Iranian Affairs. James Ravannack has been President of USA Wrestling, the national governing body of amateur wrestling in the United States, since August 2006. Christina ‘Kiki’ Kelley is Team Leader for the US Men’s Greco-Roman wrestling team for the Olympic cycle culminating in Rio 2016. Bahman Baktiari is Executive Director of the Salt Lake City-based International Foundation for Civil Society, an organization that explores fundamental social and political shifts underway throughout the Middle East and North Africa and focuses on bridging cultural gaps and fostering a discourse of understanding. Barbara Slavin, Acting Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council will moderate.
  3. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz on Iran’s Nuclear Agreement | Tuesday, February 2nd | 11:00-12:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The International Atomic Agency (IAEA) has certified that Iran has curbed its nuclear program by taking a number of steps including dismantling two-thirds of its installed centrifuge capacity, reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium and removing the core of its Arak heavy water reactor. As a result, the U.S. has lifted nuclear-related sanctions. Please join us for a discussion with Secretary Moniz on exactly what steps Iran has taken, how the United States can be confident that Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear weapon has been extended to at least one year, what lies ahead for the nuclear deal and what challenges remain.
  4. Implications of the Collapse of Oil Prices for the Middle East | Tuesday, February 2nd | 3:00-4:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The collapse of the oil prices has shocked both producers and consumers worldwide. As the most important producing region of the world, the Middle East has been particularly affected; state revenues are down, and cutthroat competition for market share and low global demand translates into greater challenges and uncertainty. The regional economic outlook is unclear, and questions remain about the potential long-term impact of sustained low oil prices. Three experts will analyze the geopolitical and financial aspects of the sharp decline in oil prices on both importing and exporting countries in the Middle East. Speakers include David Gordon, Senior Advisor at Eurasia Group, Aasim M. Husain, Deputy Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, and Franziska Lieselotte Ohnsorge, Lead Economist at the World Bank. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, will moderate the event.
  5. Iranian Public Opinion on Foreign Affairs on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections | Wednesday, February 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Ebrahim Mohseni, Senior Analyst at the University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research will present findings from a new study of Iranian public opinion on the upcoming Iranian parliamentary elections, regional security issues, and expectations from the JCPOA. Three experts on Iran will comment on the survey results and discuss prospects for the February 26 elections, highlighting possible domestic, regional, and international implications. Panelists include William Miller, Senior Scholar at the Kennan Institute and the Wilson Center, Paul Pillar, Researcher of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and Robin Wright, Wilson Center-USIP Distinguished Fellow. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center will moderate.
  6. Kurdistan: Re-Inventing Itself, Yet Again | Wednesday, February 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | This year will be a difficult year for the people of Kurdistan. The crash in oil prices, the unrelenting war against ISIS, and the presence of 1.8 million Syrian refugees and displaced Iraqis have precipitated a dire financial crisis for the Kurdistan Regional Government. Join us for a discussion on how to move forward, both regionally and internationally, in light of these challenging times facing Kurdistan. Sasha Toperich, Senior Fellow and Director of the Mediterranean Basin Initiative CTR SAIS will make opening remarks. Hemin Hawrami, Head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party Foreign Relations Office, will offer the keynote address. Panelists include Salam Mohammad Islam, Chief Executive Director at the Rwanga Foundation, and Awat Mustafa, Senior Board Member and Head of Operations and Projects at the Barzani Charity Foundation. Rebeen Pasha, WYLN Senior Fellow at the Mediterranean Basin Initiative will moderate.
  7. North Korea’s fourth nuclear test: How will Pyongyang’s neighbors and the U.S. respond? | Wednesday, February 3rd | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | North Korea’s recent nuclear test and possible upcoming satellite launch underscore the increasing dangers posed by North Korea’s weapons development program and its implications for international security and the integrity of the non-proliferation regime. The United States and its partners in Northeast Asia must develop and execute a coordinated strategy to address these ever larger risks, but will differences among the relevant countries prevent realization of a shared strategy? What are the longer-term implications should North Korea sustain its weapons development? On February 3, the John L. Thornton China Center and the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host an event to assess the wider implications of North Korea’s recent nuclear test, weigh the possible responses by the Republic of Korea, Japan, and China, and then consider the impact on U.S. policy. The event will be moderated by Senior Fellow Richard Bush, and the panelists include Senior Fellows Katharine H.S. Moon, Jonathan Pollack, and Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
  8. Turkey’s politics and foreign policy: Bridging the populism/realism gap | Thursday, February 4th | 3:30-5:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), populism has become a pervasive feature of the “new” Turkey. In the latest Turkey Project Policy Paper, Nora Fisher Onar of George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies explores the tension between populism and realism as a driver of uncertainty in Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs. The paper examines the sources, evolution, and consequences of AKP populism since 2002, including the problematic disconnect between anti-Western domestic rhetoric and the recent need for pro-Western pragmatism as Turkey’s regional ambitions have been confronted by the disorder spilling across its borders. On February 4, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) will host a panel discussion to explore the tone and substance of Turkey’s politics and foreign policy as the country emerges from a polarizing electoral cycle. Fisher Onar will present the conclusions of her new paper, “The Populism/Realism Gap: Managing Uncertainty in Turkey’s Politics and Foreign Policy.” Following her remarks, Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Alan Makovsky of the Center for American Progress, and Kadir Ustun of the SETA Foundation will offer their perspectives. The discussion will be moderated by Brookings TUSIAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
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Worsening

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - January 29, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Wednesday, Human Rights First hosted ‘How to Navigate Egypt’s Enduring Human Rights Crisis: Blueprint for U.S. Government Policy.’ Neil Hicks, Director of Human Rights Promotion at Human Rights First, moderated. Panelists included Brian Dooley, Director of the Human Rights Defenders Program at Human Rights First, Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, and Nancy Okail, Executive Director at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

Dooley explained how difficult it is for human rights activists to operate in Egypt. He gave specific examples on human rights violations in the past few weeks. Arrests have spiked. Anyone related to activists, or who has the potential to become an activist, is suspicious to the Egyptian government. The crackdown on the media worsens, and Egypt now has the second highest rate of journalist imprisonment.

Focusing on the deterioration of human rights since the Arab Spring, Okail said the Egyptian government’s response has always been quick, cosmetic fixes, rather than long-term solutions. The government is addressing symptoms, rather than causes, leading to no real positive impact in the long run. The unrest in Egypt happens because of the problems that were not properly addressed. These problems existed prior to the Arab Spring, which did not cause them

Okail also said the current regime uses control instead of power: control happens in the absence of power, and violence occurs as a result. When a leader has real power, s/he does not have to force constituents to act accordingly. Using intelligence agencies, heightening security, implementing force, and controlling the media are all approaches the current government employs in order to maintain its authority.

Hawthorne said the scale of violence by the state is troubling and tears at the social fabric. Today’s rate of disappearances did not happen under Mubarak, who targeted Islamist groups. This government targets anyone viewed as a threat to security and stability. Over 5,000 apartments were searched near Tahrir Square. Why is the government cracking down so hard on potential activists? Hawthorne suggested people within the regime are worried about what dissent will do to stability. President Sisi bears most of the responsibility for what is happening, even if he does not have complete control over the whole government.

Addressing the American role, Hawthorne said US influence in Egypt is at a low point, limiting Washington’s credibility, political capital and ability to affect change. Relationships with the Egyptian government are difficult. Relationships with human rights activists is are complicated. The root of the challenging relationships is the distrust of the US. The United States does not embrace Sisi, but still gives aid to Egypt. Hawthorne recommended that the US should  investigate where its aid ends up, but this is difficult to do, as the Egyptian government is not transparent.

The U.S. should focus on four things moving forward:

  1. Listening to Egyptian partners. What these people prioritize, the US should also prioritize. These priorities may change, and the US should observe why they change.
  2. Paying attention to human rights defenders and civil society organizations. They are trying to hold the Egyptian government accountable for human rights abuses.
  3. Consistency when speaking on Egyptian human rights issues. Inconsistency breeds to skepticism.
  4. Honestly assessing government officials. A normal relationship should not be maintained as long as human rights violations are occurring.

Overall, the human rights situation in Egypt seems to be worsening. Verbal condemnation of human rights abuses simply is not enough. Perhaps taking away a significant amount of aid would be a way to put real pressure on the Egyptian government to change its approach towards journalists and activists.

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