Category: Christopher Pumford
Ecological threats to peace
A Look at the 2020 Ecological Threat Register and the Connection Between Conflict and Climate Change
Raging wildfires in Australia and the United States, locust plagues in the Horn of Africa and Mediterranean cyclones are only some of the natural disasters that set 2020 apart as an unusually severe year for environmental catastrophes. It is becoming increasingly important to understand how the effects of climate change can and will affect state and regional stability. The Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, shows the relationship between ecological threats and state institutional resilience in remarkable detail. USIP hosted a panel of experts to discuss the report’s findings.
Sagal Abshir: Non-Resident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University
Michael Collins: Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace
Dr. Joseph Hewitt: Vice President for Policy, Learning and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Catherine-Lune Grayson: Policy Advisor, International Committee of the Red Cross
Tyler Beckelman, (moderator): Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace
Natural Disasters Not the Primary Risk
The report’s findings were grim. As reported by Michael Collins, by 2050 it is predicted that 6.5 billion people will be exposed to high-intensity ecological threats. The 19 most exposed countries are home to 2.1 billion people. It is also estimated that 1.2 billion (an astounding one out of five) people risk displacement due to ecological disasters by that same year. The regions most at risk include the Sahel region, Southern Africa and the Middle East/Central Asia.
Ecological threats were grouped into the following categories: resource scarcity, food security, water stress, and natural disasters. Of these categories, water stress was found to be the most impactful, potentially affecting up to 2.6 billion people. How will these stresses affect global stability?
State Fragility and Climate Change: the Perfect Storm?
The unfortunate reality, as Collins describes, is that many of the states most at risk are also the least capable of addressing these threats. Lack of robust government institutions, financial resources, and conflict-free environments mean that these states are more prone to collapse, even if ecological threats are not as severe as those of more developed countries. To make matters worse, many of the least peaceful states are also the most prone to ecological threats.
Abshir corroborated these findings with her own experience in the Horn of Africa. She reports that climate change is causing regional instability. Unpredictable precipitation causes many farmers to lose their livelihoods, making them more susceptible to radicalization. In addition, she reports that conflict and climate change are self-reinforcing. For instance, the conflict in Yemen inhibits locust-control measures usually present in peacetime. The resulting swell in locust swarms causes economic devastation on both sides of the Persian Gulf, fueling further conflict.
State Resilience: Embracing Complexity
Grayson suggests that part of the problem lies in many of these states’ inability to take preventive measures. Instead, they are locked in reactive policies that do not address the heart of climate change issues. She advocates for a human security-styled approach, involving academics, politicians, the private sector, economic development specialists, and more. All three of the speakers agreed that well-functioning governments are absolutely essential, in addition to diversifying strategies of state resilience. Abshir noted that, as part of an effective plan for state resilience, more attention must be devoted to addressing climate change on a regional level, not just state-by-state. Grayson aptly concludes that tackling state resilience to climate change requires complex solutions and that embracing complexity may mitigate the chaos caused by ecological threats.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Peace Picks | September 28 – October 2, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Political, Security, and Public Health Dimensions in the Horn of Africa | September 28, 2020 | 3:00 – 4:30 PM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
The Horn of Africa continues to face multiple challenges from persistent terrorism and militancy threats to significant global warming repercussions. A country of significant U.S. and international state-building and counterterrorism investments, Somalia continues to struggle with increasing al-Shabaab militancy, a security situation in which Ethiopia, Kenya, and other members of the African Union Mission in Somalia play important counterinsurgency roles. Yet Somalia and Ethiopia are also undergoing large and challenging political transitions. Ethiopia, too, faces the rise of escalating intra-ethnic tensions and political violence. The entire region has become a place of difficult competition among regional and great powers. Layered over these issues, the coronavirus pandemic has devastated local economies, exacerbating already high levels of poverty. Moreover, it has further destabilized fragile, fractious, and explosive political processes.
On September 28, the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will hold a panel discussion to explore these complex and overlapping issues. The panel will feature Director of Programmes of the United Nations University’s Centre for Policy Research Adam Day, Brookings Senior Fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown, United States Institute of Peace Senior Advisor Payton Knopf, Institute for Security Studies Senior Researcher Allan Ngari, and Brookings Nonresident Fellow Zach Vertin. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Adam Day: Director of Programmes – Centre for Policy Research, United Nations University
Vanda Felbab-Brown: Co-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor – United States Institute of Peace
Allan Ngari: Senior Researcher, Complex Threats in Africa Programme – Institute for Security Studies
Zach Vertin: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator): Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
2. 2020 Election Integrity and Foreign Interference | September 29, 2020 | 3:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As part of our Interference 2020 effort, please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) on September 29 from 3:00 – 4:00 pm ET for a timely discussion of recent allegations of foreign interference in the 2020 election. The event will be opened by Craig Newmark, who has worked to uplift journalism in the face of disinformation, as well as connect efforts working to counter destabilizing foreign interference. The discussion will feature POLITICO’s Natasha Bertrand and David Sanger of the New York Times on their experience covering foreign interference ahead of the election and their process when assessing credibility of interference claims and attribution.
The DFRLab will also launch the Foreign Interference Attribution Tracker, an open-source database that captures allegations of foreign interference in U.S. elections. This event will offer a first look at the tool which is intended to build public attribution standards, provide an independent and reliable record of foreign interference in the 2020 election, serve as a resource for stakeholders about the evolving threat, and help to build public resilience against future efforts of foreign influence and disinformation.
Disinformation poses an existential threat to the future of American democracy. Nowhere is this more evident than in the question of foreign interference: a phenomenon which is heavily dependent on the spread of disinformation, yet which is also increasingly the subject of it. Over the past nine months, numerous U.S. officials, agencies, technology companies, and civil society organizations have identified instances of foreign disinformation campaigns and social media manipulation—often using drastically different standards of evidence to make their case.
We hope you will join us online and in the effort ahead of U.S. elections.
Speakers:
Craig Newmark: Founder: Craigslist, Craig Newmark Philanthropies
David Sanger: National Security Correspondent, New York Times
Natasha Bertrand: National Security Correspondent, POLITICO
Emerson Brooking: Resident Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Graham Brookie: Director and Managing Editor, Digital Forensics Research Lab
3. Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Presidential Election | September 30, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join the CSIS Transnational Threats Project and Defending Democratic Institutions Project on Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 1:30pm to discuss the domestic terrorism threat in the United States before, during, and after the 2020 presidential election. The panel will examine the domestic terrorism threat landscape; the role of security and law enforcement; the use and misuse of military force, including legal provisions governing violence mitigation; the spread of extremism on digital platforms; and the role of foreign actors.
Seth Jones, CSIS Harold Brown Chair and Director of the Transnational Threats Project and Suzanne Spaulding, Senior Adviser for Homeland Security to the International Security Program will be joined by Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser to the RAND President, RAND as well as Cathy Lanier, Senior Vice President, Chief Security Officer, National Football League (NFL), and former Chief of Police, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia.
Speakers:
Brian Michael Jenkins: Senior Adviser to the RAND President, RAND
Cathy Lanier: Senior Vice President, Chief Security Officer, National Football League (NFL); and former Chief of Police, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia
4. Envisioning COVID-19’s Legacy on Global Stability and Security | September 30, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has taken lives, devastated the world economy, and threatened the fabric of politics around the world. As Henry Kissinger warned, “The coronavirus epidemic will forever alter the world order.” So what will a post-COVID-19 world order look like? In their new book, “COVID-19 and World Order” (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2020), AEI’s Hal Brands and Francis Gavin of Johns Hopkins University convened leading experts in policy, economics, governance, international security, medicine, and technology to consider the international aftermath of the pandemic.
Please join AEI’s Hal Brands, Kori Schake, and Colin Dueck for a panel discussion with Elizabeth Economy and Francis Gavin to examine COVID-19’s legacy on global stability and security.
Speakers:
Hal Brands: Resident Scholar, AEI
Elizabeth C. Economy: Senior Fellow for China Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Francis J. Gavin: Director of Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
Colin Dueck: Visiting Scholar, AEI
5. The Future of US Policy in Afghanistan | September 30, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
Over the course of the past 19 years of war in Afghanistan, successive American presidents and presidential candidates have promised to make ending the war and bringing troops home a priority. While the U.S.-Taliban deal signed in February and the intra-Afghan peace talks that began earlier this month in Doha offer a path toward complete U.S. withdrawal, the talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government will be long and difficult and a successful deal between the two parties is far from guaranteed. Questions also remain regarding whether the Taliban did indeed cut off ties with al-Qaida, as outlined in the U.S.-Taliban deal.
On September 30, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a virtual event to assess political and security developments in Afghanistan, U.S. interests in the country, and foreign policy options for the next administration to pursue.
Viewers can submit questions via email to events@brookings.edu or via Twitter at #Policy2020.
Policy 2020 events aim to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed in the 2020 election.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: Assistant Professor, School of Public Policy – David M. Rubenstein Fellow: Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Vanda Felbab-Brown: Co-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Michael O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
6. Turning Black to Green | September 30, 2020 | 17:00—18:00 EEST (UTC+3) | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While September 2020 marks 100 years since the Proclamation of the State of Greater Lebanon, the country today is plagued by a myriad of crises. This may prove a critical inflection point for Lebanon as a whole. The Carnegie Middle East Center and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung are hosting a four-part series of panel discussions, which will look at where Lebanon stands on its Centennial, as well as the opportunities and challenges for the new century.
Lebanon is endowed with a rich and diverse national ecosystem, and has the potential and responsibility to fight pollution and deforestation, while investing in green spaces and clean energy. Moving forward, how can Lebanon ensure that the environment does not take a back seat in its national priorities, given the many other pressing issues facing the country today?
Join us on Tuesday, September 29 from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Beirut (GMT+3) for this fourth panel discussion on Lebanon’s environmental concerns and potential. The event will be held in English. Viewers may submit their questions via the Live Chat feature on YouTube during the livestream.
Speakers:
Ziad Abi Chaker: CEO of Cedar Environmental.
Marc Ayoub: research assistant with the Energy Policy and Security department at the American University of Beirut.
Nada Ghorayeb Zarour: former president of the Lebanese Green Party and the current head of its Arbitration Council.
Dalal Mawad: award-winning journalist and senior MENA video producer and correspondent with the Associated Press.
7. Regional Expansionism: Iran’s Militias in the Levant | October 1, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council| Register Here
The United States’ policy towards Iran is one of the most contentious foreign policy issues currently dividing Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 election season. While containing Iran’s nuclear activity is a priority for both parties, it remains unclear how either one plans to deal with Iranian-backed militias, which remain a threat to lasting stability in the Middle East and a danger to America and its allies’ national security interests.
Speakers:
Joel Rayburn:Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Levant and Special Envoy for Syria, US Department of State
Michael B. Herzog: Milton Fine International Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ariane Tabatabai: Middle East Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Hamdi Malik: Middle East Analyst; Contributor, Iran International TV; Al-Monitor
Navvar Saban: Conflict Analyst and Expert; Nonresident Researcher, Omran Center for Strategic Studies; Orsam Center
8. Election 2020 U.S. Foreign Policy Forum | October 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM EDT | Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Between the first and second presidential debates, please join us for a discussion of the foreign policy challenges awaiting the winner of the 2020 election and the critical issues for Americans to consider as they cast their vote this November.
This event is free and open to all. To register, please sign up on the Eventbrite page. Zoom access instructions will be emailed to registrants on the evening of Wednesday, September 30.
Speakers:
Reuben E. Brigety II: Vice-Chancellor and President, University of the South; Former U.S. Representative to the African Union and U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN Economic Commission for Africa (2013–2015)
Richard N. Haass: President, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Special Assistant to President George H.W. Bush (1989–1993)
Jami Miscik: CEO and Vice Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Inc.; Former Co-Chair, President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (2014–2017); Former Deputy Director of Intelligence, CIA (2002–2005)
Frances Fragos Townsend: Vice Chairman, General Counsel, and Chief Administration Officer, MacAndrews & Forbes Incorporated; Former Assistant to President George W. Bush for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and Chair, Homeland Security Council (2004–2008)
Juju Chang: Co-anchor, Nightline, ABC News
9. Overcoming Polarization in Ukraine | October 2, 2020 | 10:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Since Ukraine first gained independence in 1991, historical memory and national identity have been a point of contention and subject for manipulation. Thanks in good part to Kremlin aggression, a real sense of Ukrainian identity has emerged in the center and east of the country, too. Yet, the memory war that has characterized Ukraine for the past three decades has not disappeared. And it has been exacerbated by Kremlin disinformation campaigns. The Kremlin has inflamed controversy over historical narratives, weaponizing history in the unsuccessful effort to undermine Ukrainian statehood. A groundbreaking recent report by the London School of Economics and Political Science’s (LSE) Arena program, From ‘Memory Wars’ to a Common Future: Overcoming Polarisation in Ukraine, outlines the scope of challenges facing Ukraine’s information environment along with comprehensive recommendations for reducing societal polarization.
Speakers:
Anne Applebaum: Director, Arena, LSE
Natalia Gumenyuk: Co-founder, Public Interest Journalism Lab
Peter Pomerantsev: Visiting Senior Fellow, Institute of Global Affairs, LSE
Yevhen Hlibovytsky: Founder, ProMova
Ambassador John Herbst: Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
10. Disinformed Democracy: The Past, Present, and Future of Information Warfare | October 2, 2020 | 9:15 AM – 1:0 PM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
In 2016, Russian operatives waged an information war, including cyberattacks and inauthentic social media campaigns, designed to stoke political divisions and undermine the U.S. presidential election. Before they became front-page news, Russian influence operations had existed for decades. But in recent years, a range of domestic and international factors — in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere — have spotlighted the dangers of information manipulation campaigns, which now threaten the 2020 election. These drivers, alongside a rapidly evolving information technology and communications landscape, necessitate innovative policy ideas and a whole-of-society approach to protect democratic societies.
On October 2, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a virtual conference to examine the past, present, and future of disinformation and efforts to combat it. Following welcome remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Brookings Senior Fellow Fiona Hill and former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster will frame the event with a conversation on McMaster’s new book, “Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.” Then, Hill and Brookings Fellow and Deputy Director of the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative Chris Meserole will moderate three panel discussions on the history of Russian influence operations leading up to 2016, the domestic factors that contribute to disinformation and other threats to democracy, and novel strategies for combatting information warfare in the future.
Speakers and Schedule:
Welcome remarks
John Allen: President – The Brookings Institution
Opening conversation: How disinformation threatens world order
H.R. McMaster: Former U.S. National Security Advisor, Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Panel 1: The road to Russian interference in 2016
Catherine Belton: Special Correspondent – Reuters
Arkady Ostrovsky: Russia and Eastern Europe Editor – The Economist
Thomas Rid: Professor of Strategic Studies – Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
David Shimer: Global Fellow – Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsAssociate Fellow – Yale University
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and
Panel 2: Domestic drivers of disinformation
Renee DiResta: Research Manager – Stanford Internet Observatory
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Kate Starbird: Associate Professor, Human Centered Design & Engineering – University of Washington
Chris Meserole: Deputy Director – Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Fellow – Foreign Policy
Panel 3: Novel strategies for countering information warfare
Eileen Donahoe: Executive Director – Global Digital Policy Incubator, Stanford University; Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations Human Rights Council
Thomas Kent: Adjunct Associate Professor of International and Public Affairs – Columbia University
Daniel Kimmage: Principal Deputy Coordinator, Global Engagement Center – U.S. Department of State
Teija Tiilikainen: Director – European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE)
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
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India no longer wants to be a loner
Kashmir is a region fraught with turmoil. Three nuclear powers, two of them the most populous nations on Earth, have vied for over a half-century over the ownership of this mountainous region. Even amidst the instability, no fatal violence has occurred between China and India in 45 years. That uneasy peace was shattered earlier this summer, when Chinese and Indian troops clashed in the remote Ladekh region. This event was a wake-up call for many about the changing India-China relationship. USIP’s Vikram Singh spoke with former Indian diplomat Nirupama Rao to discuss how worsening Indian relations with China, the worldwide pandemic and recession catalyzed a dramatic shift in Indian foreign policy.
Nirupama Rao: Former Indian Foreign Secretary and Ambassador (China, United States)
Vikram Singh (moderator): Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute for Peace
India squeezed between China and Pakistan
Indian-Chinese relations were not always this tense, maintains Former Ambassador Rao. In the decades since Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s pivotal visit to China 1988, India and China were able to foster a working partnership. Both countries were economically and militarily similar at the time and border disputes were left ambiguous and undecided. But, the economic resurgence of China (which Rao attributes to “American favoritism) allowed it to outpace India, and now China is beginning to flex its newfound economic and military might.
Rao believes that under Xi Jinping, China has become swept up in what she calls an “overzealous nationalism.” India feels threatened by Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and in Sri Lanka, where China recently acquired a port on a 99-year lease. India is also confronted with China’s support for Pakistan, which Rao suggests is China’s “only friend.” In particular, China’s recent attempts to nationalize the Kashmir dispute are proof to the Indian government that China is not a neutral party in this conflict. According to Rao, India considers the China-Pakistan relationship to be a “thorn in India’s side.”
While China and India have established a new ceasefire in Ladekh, she suggests that this agreement alone will not reduce tensions in the region.
Looking for friends
India historically has prided itself on strategic independence. This is beginning to change, asserts Rao. India is beginning to reach out to what she describes as its “natural democratic partners” in the Subcontinent, in Southeast Asia, and especially the United States. The most striking aspect of her remarks was her emphasis on deepening relations with the United States, traditionally a foe of Indian priorities in the United Nations sphere. Now, India hopes to capitalize on discontent among China’s neighbors, who she suggests have been “strung along by China on a leash.”
Rao asserts that it is India’s hope to develop a multilateral network of states in the region to maintain freedom of the seas as well as collaborate and develop interstate infrastructure. She views the United States as a natural partner in this endeavor, and welcomes increased American involvement in the region. Such candor about strengthening US-Indian ties is indicative of an inflection point in Indian foreign policy.
Amidst the chaos, a silver lining
While Rao initially suggested that India’s current prospects vis-à-vis China are rather bleak, she concluded on a hopeful note by describing her work as founder of the South Asian Symphony Foundation, an orchestra modeled after the iconic Arab-Israeli orchestra. Rao hopes that, through music, diverse South Asian cultures can obtain peace through musical harmony.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Peace Picks | September 21 – September 25, 2020
1. Global China: Examining China’s Approach to Global Governance and Norms | September 21, 2020 | 9:30 – 10:45 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the last several years, the world has seen China taking on more responsibility and power in international institutions. China’s growing activism has provided a glimpse into its ambitions to assert a greater role for itself on matters of global governance. China’s growing activism also has raised key questions about the scale of Beijing’s ambitions and the tools it would be willing to use to advance them.
On September 21, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a webinar to address these and other questions concerning China’s evolving approach to international institutions, rules, and norms. The event will launch the next tranche of Brookings papers released as part of its series “Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World.” From human rights to energy to trade, these papers present a range of arguments for observers of China and policymakers to consider as they evaluate China’s role on the international stage.
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or by joining the conversation on Twitter with #GlobalChina.
Speakers:
Jeffrey Feltman: John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy – Foreign Policy
Lindsey W. Ford: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Sophie Richardson: China Director – Human Rights Watch
David O. Shullman: Senior Advisor – International Republican InstituteAdjunct Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security
Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
2. Reporting on 2020: Free Press, Disinformation, and Election Integrity | September 21, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
A free and independent press is essential to open societies and functioning democracies. As elections draw nearer in the United States, media is navigating how to provide the public with the facts in an information environment unlike any before. The coming months will include an election with increased vote-by-mail due to the ongoing pandemic, the continued attempts of foreign adversaries to interfere in the elections, political operatives undermining the credibility of journalism, misinformation — and more malicious disinformation — about all of it.
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab on Monday, September 21 from 1:00-2:00pm ET for a discussion with leading journalists and editors on their role in the integrity of the upcoming election. We will speak with these expert journalists and editors, experienced in covering national security, technology, and elections, on their approach to delivering fact-based news to sustain an informed public, as well as avoiding the amplification of disinformation in a landscape rife with it.
Speakers:
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Stacy-Marie Ishmael: Editorial Director, Texas Tribune
Ellen Nakashima: National Security Reporter, Washington Post
Brandy Zadrozny: Reporter, NBC News
3. Ecological Threats to Peace | September 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Global warming, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are already adversely affecting food and water security throughout the world—leaving the least resilient countries with an increased risk of political instability, social fragmentation, and economic collapse. A more accurate measurement of levels of exposure to tomorrow’s ecological threats is key to helping these countries maintain peace today and can enable others to better prepare and adapt for the future.
The new Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, synthesizes and visualizes data on environmental indicators to estimate which countries, regions, and areas are most vulnerable to environment-induced conflict. In particular, the ETR underscores that 141 countries are vulnerable to ecological threats, and that approximately 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by ecological disasters in the next 30 years.
Join USIP and the Institute for Economics and Peace for a look at the inaugural Ecological Threat Register, as experts explore the nexus between conflict and climate change and consider strategies for boosting resilience to climate-induced insecurity. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #EcoThreat2020.
Speakers:
Sagal Abshir: Non-Resident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University
Michael Collins: Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace
Dr. Joseph Hewitt: Vice President for Policy, Learning and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Catherine-Lune Grayson: Policy Advisor, International Committee of the Red Cross
Tyler Beckelman: Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Whither the Middle East: More Conflict or New Peace? | September 23, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Lebanon is in chaos as it struggles to rebuild politically and physically. Tensions between Iran and the United States are again mounting over access to arms and their rivalry in the region, with fears of a showdown this fall. Syria is nearing a decade of war, with no imminent prospects of peace or reconciliation. ISIS still has an estimated 10,000 fighters menacing Iraq and Syria. Yet, amid these volatile times, Israel and the U.A.E. signed the first peace agreement in more than a quarter century. Where is the Middle East headed—toward more conflict or new peace?
Speakers:
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
Daniel Kurtzer: Former Ambassador to Israel and Egypt; Professor of Middle East Policy Studies at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Vali Nasr: Former Dean and Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Robin Wright: USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Journalist and Author
5. The Perils of Polarization in Southeast Asia | September 23, 2020 | 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Rising levels of political polarization are hurting democracy in many Southeast Asian countries. The coronavirus pandemic is only ratcheting up political pressures further. Drawing on a new Carnegie Endowment report, “Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Divisions, New Dangers,” this event will examine two critical cases—Indonesia and Thailand—to gain a regional understanding of why polarization is increasing, its political effects, and how political and civic actors can take steps to address it.
This event is being held in collaboration with Freedom House.
Speakers:
Thomas Carothers: Senior Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a leading authority on international support for democracy, human rights, governance, the rule of law, and civil society.
Janjira Sombatpoonsiri: Associate Fellow at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies and researcher at the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.
David Timberman: Director for Asia programs at Freedom House.
Eve Warburton: Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore.
6. COVID-19 and Cease-fires: What Have We Learned? | September 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
In March, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global cease-fire to combat the spread of COVID-19. Though initially dismissed as unrealistic, the secretary-general’s call was surprisingly well-received: Nearly 70 countries, hundreds of nongovernmental organizations, and eminent persons joined in repeating the call for a humanitarian pause to address the growing pandemic. In response, several conflict parties announced unilateral cease-fires, including the National Democratic Front in the Philippines, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the National Liberation Army in Colombia. Two months later, the U.N. Security Council adopted resolution 2532, calling on conflict parties across the world to support a 90-day humanitarian cease-fire.
However, since then, it has been challenging for any bilateral or multilateral cease-fires related to the pandemic to materialize, despite the spread of COVID-19 to numerous conflict zones, including Yemen and Syria.
Join USIP for a timely discussion on the strategies needed to pursue effective cease-fires in conflict zones. Drawing from recent reports, including the recent USIP publication “Searching for COVID-19 Cease-fires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities,” panelists will consider the correlation between political willpower and conflict resolution, how the secretary-general’s cease-fire appeal was perceived on the ground in conflict zones, and whether international pressure could make a difference in advancing the secretary-general’s call.
Speakers:
Roxaneh Bazergan: Senior Political Affairs Officer and Team Leader, Mediation Support Unit, U.N. Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs
Christine Bell: Professor of Constitutional Law and Assistant Principal, The University of Edinburgh School of Law
Ashish Pradhan: Senior Analyst, U.N. Advocacy and Research, International Crisis Group
Tyler Thompson: Senior Expert, Negotiations and Peace Process Support, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Security at the Maritime Edge | September 24, 2020 | 10:45 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
No global supply chain is independent of maritime transport and most are existentially dependent on it. In fact, greater than 90% of all global trade tonnage is transported by sea. While vulnerabilities in widely used software or control systems are a concern, the greater source of risk is systemic inadequacies in the public-private partnership for maritime cybersecurity and shortfalls of both capacity and coordination amongst critical stakeholders across the global security community. The lifeblood of global energy networks runs through the ocean. The cybersecurity of systems, from offshore renewable energy, to fossil fuel transport to major transshipment hubs, to floating production, storage, and offloading vessels, is an increasingly significant factor in the security of energy system as a whole.
To begin a conversation towards a strategy to address these issues, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative under the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security invites you to join us for a virtual discussion, “Security at the Maritime Edge” on Thursday, September 24th from 10:45am-12:00pm. The event will feature opening remarks from Rear Admiral Mark H. “Buz” Buzby (USN, Ret.), Maritime Administrator for the U.S. Department of Transportation and a panel moderated by Captain Jason Tama, Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard and featuring Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America; Dr. Xavier Bellekens, Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications, University of Strathclyde; Captain Alex Soukhanov, Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber; Mr. Kevin Stine, Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce; and Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar, Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Please join this conversation via the web application Zoom, which is accessible through your web browser, the Zoom desktop or mobile app, and by phone. If you wish to join the question and answer period, you must join by app or web. Register below receive further information on how to join the virtual audience.
Speakers:
Captain Jason Tama: Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard
Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf: President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America
Dr. Xavier Bellekens: Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications,University of Strathclyde
Captain Alex Soukhanov: Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber
Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar: Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Mr. Kevin Stine: Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce
8. The Catholic Church and Peacebuilding | September 24, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For decades, the Catholic Church has served as a mediator in high-level negotiation efforts involving governments and nonviolent movements vying for human rights, democracy, and peace. With its deep connections to communities, institutional ties to governments, and global diplomatic status, the Catholic Church is uniquely positioned to help grassroots activists and peacebuilders collectively vocalize grievances and key demands while providing guidance and managing relationships with national and local governments. While this dual role has not been formally codified and varies based on context, it has implications for the Church’s ability to support people power movements, peace processes, and conflict prevention efforts globally.
The Church is able to advance peace globally by building strategic and tactical bridges between grassroots nonviolent action and peacebuilding actors, as well as investing in their development and capacity building. But this role is not without challenges. Can the Church serve as an effective mediator while openly denouncing human rights violations and government crackdowns against nonviolent activists? Is it possible for different Church actors to effectively assume different roles in the context of popular movements for peace and democracy? What does this look like practically and what can we learn from past cases?
Join USIP for an event that will explore how and where the Catholic Church is able—or has the potential—to effectively support peace processes and people power movements by operating at the grassroots, engaging at the formal level, and liaising in between. The speakers will share anecdotes and stories from their rich experiences, offering an opportunity to discuss current perspectives around violence prevention and conflict transformation in the Catholic Church.
Speakers:
Bishop Robert W. McElroy: Bishop of San Diego, Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego
Scott Appleby: Marilyn Keough Dean, Professor of History, University of Notre Dame
Sergio Cabrales: Nicaraguan Fulbright Scholar and Graduate Student, University of Pittsburgh
Marie Dennis: Senior Advisor, Pax Christi International
Maria Stephan: Director, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
9. U.S. and the Middle East: Lessons from the Obama and Trump Administrations | September 24, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The U.S. administration that takes office in January 2021 will formulate policies toward the Middle East and North Africa amid rising great power competition, a shifting energy landscape, and a diminished public appetite for military interventions. What lessons can be learned from the experiences of the two previous administrations? Re-Engaging the Middle East, a new book of essays edited by Dafna Rand and Andrew Miller, takes up this question across a range of countries and thematic issues.
Join us on Thursday, September 24, for a panel discussion that will bring together former Obama and Trump administration officials alongside experts from the MENA region. Together, they will take a critical look at U.S. policies under both presidents with a view toward recommendations for the next administration.
Speakers:
Alexander Bick: research scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He served as Syria director at the National Security Council and on the policy planning staff under Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.
Joyce Karam: Washington correspondent for the National and has covered American politics extensively since 2004, with a focus on U.S. policy towards the Middle East.
Mick Mulroy: Senior for National Security and Defense Policy at the Middle East Institute. He served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under Secretaries of Defense James Mattis and Mark Esper.
Dafna Rand: Served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s policy planning staff, and on the staff of the National Security Council.
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East.
10. The Fallout of the War in Syria | September 25, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Syrian conflict has been devastating both within the country and outside its borders. Neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have all suffered from disproportionate social and economic impacts as well as a decrease in GDP. Trade and tourism have taken a hit, while poverty rates have increased and labor market conditions have deteriorated. Yet, the regional interdependence that has led to such negative impacts may also hold the answer to addressing these challenges. A regional approach could unlock creative solutions that ultimately bring stability and even prosperity.
Join USIP for an in-depth presentation and discussion of the World Bank’s new publication, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria.” The panel will include the report’s lead author as well as regional experts who will provide insight on the economic and social effects that the Syrian conflict has had on its neighbors.
Speakers:
Saroj Kumar Jha: Regional Director of the Mashreq Department, World Bank
Harun Onder: Senior Economist, World Bank; Lead Author, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria”
Randa Slim: Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute
Natasha Hall: Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
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