Category: Colin Tait
Iraq explodes
Escalating Protests
The current protests in Iraq have been the bloodiest since 2003, with over 300 people killed and thousands injured. The October protesters started off demanding services, but quickly escalated to broader grievances against the Prime Minister, his cabinet, and the Iraqi democratic system as a whole. These protests should not be a surprise to the Iraqi government nor the international community. The government has been eroding for 16 years. Layers of grievances have led to the current protests.
President Barham Salih has said Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi will resign once the political parties pick a replacement, but it’s highly unlikely this would quell protests. The demonstrations are not backed by, nor do they back, any political party. There is no leadership for the government to negotiate with. Ideas, demands, and slogans are being churned out. The basic demand is for an upheaval of the political system.
Underlying Issues to Broader Instability
Two years after the fall of ISIS, Iraq is still unstable. The government lacks the ability to meet the basic needs of its citizens. An estimated $160-$275 billion is needed to rebuild, but a mix of mismanaged resources and corrupt politicians has left the country with vital infrastructure still destroyed, high levels of unemployment, and a lack of services, especially in health and education. Despite having the world’s fourth largest oil reserves, Iraq’s cities face frequent power cuts, making life unbearable for many. The only option separate from the national power grid is to purchase electricity from privately owned generators, but that is unaffordable for most Iraqis.
There are still roughly 1.67 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in post-ISIS Iraq. Most of those who could voluntarily move back to their place of origin have likely already done so, yet authorities are closing and consolidating IDP camps, causing conditions in the remaining ones to deteriorate.
Civil documentation is a major barrier to IDPs re-integrating into communities as well as returning home to their places of origin. Strict Iraqi laws make life difficult for an estimated 80,000 families, who lack legal documentation. Without proper paperwork, these Iraqis lose access to available public goods and freedom of movement. Although international aid is provided to IDPs, it is not nearly enough for them and other Iraqis in dire need of basic commodities. Corrupt politicians take the money for themselves. The mishandling of IDPs adds to the perception that the Iraqi government is corrupt and ineffective.
The Islamic State remains a serious threat for both Iraq and Syria. ISIS fighters have moved into the valley of a remote mountainous region in northern Iraq that is not patrolled by either the Kurdish peshmerga or the Iraqi army. This allows them free movement, mainly at night, and the ability to go to local cities, farms, and villages to shake down the population and extract resources. Currently, there are only a few hundred ISIS militants in the area at most, but it could be the beginning of a new territorial caliphate if they are able to consolidate power and create a base for nearby sleeper cells to flock to.
What’s Next?
The Prime Minister has lost the support of Iraqi students, unions, and even the army. It is difficult to predict what will happen in coming weeks, but the protests have continuously increased in size and intensity, a trend that will likely endure. The government has lost the confidence of the Iraqi people. Replacing current politicians will not address the grievances protestors have. A new mandate is needed to move forward and reestablish Iraq.
Iraq exploding with a wide range of problems that could push the government over the edge at any moment. A military coup by either the Iraqi army or the Iranian backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is a possibility, but how will the people respond to rule by either as both have used unnecessary force against the protesters? Civil conflict would be devastating for Iraq and could be the perfect opportunity for ISIS to reestablish its caliphate.
The protests are not going to just disappear. The Iraqi people will continue to persist despite the violent reactions from security forces. There seem to be no “good” options for Iraq now and in the immediate future.
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Peace Picks | November 4 – 8
A Civil Society Approach to Preventing Terrorism and Targeted Violence | November 4, 2019 | 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM | New America, 740 15th St NW #900 Washington, D.C. 20005 | Register Here
On
October 28 – the day after the anniversary of the Tree of Life tragedy –
Parallel Networks will launch Ctrl +Alt +Del-Hate, a counter polarization, hate
and far right-wing e-magazine that replicates the pilot counter-jihadi e-zine
project they launched in July.That jihadi version has since been embedded in Telegram as
the first public e-narrative effort on the platform in English. Rather than
utilizing it as a stand-alone piece, they use it to initiate discourse, force
the hubs to communicate in groups, and deconstruct their arguments to engage in
one-on-one intervention-oriented conversations.
On November 4, join New America and Parallel Networks as they discuss Parallel Networks’ new initiative, the
changing threat landscape, the future of terrorism prevention practices, and
the utilization of “ecosystem approaches” for interventions to best combat
extremism in all forms. The panel will also discuss the relationship between
far-right wing and jihadism.
Follow the conversation online using #CtrlAltDelHate and following @NewAmericaISP and @Parallel_Net.
Speakers:
Mitch Silber
Former Director of Intelligence Analysis at New York Police
Department
Jesse
Morton
Co-founder, Parallel Networks
Brad
Galloway
Research and Intervention Specialist, Organization for
Prevention of Violence
Jeff
Schoep
Former leader of the Neo-Nazi group, National Socialist
Movement
Moderator:
Melissa Salyk-Virk
Senior Policy Analyst, New America
Jihadism in Africa | November 5, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Brookings Institute, Saul Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC, 20036 | Register Here
Islamist-inspired radical groups in Africa have had an enduring presence on the continent despite decades of international efforts to contain and eliminate them. From the 1998 attacks against the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, to more recent insurgencies aimed at destabilizing national governments, organizations like al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, Harakat al-Shabab, Boko Haram, and others have demonstrated remarkable staying power and show few signs of abating. However, the West has not paid sufficient attention to these groups and the potential they have to disrupt the continent’s development and export violence beyond.
On November 5, the Africa Security
Initiative at the Brookings Institution will host an event to discuss these
issues and their importance for contemporary discussions about security on the
African continent. The speakers will be Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow at Foreign
Policy, and Stig Jarle Hansen, professor at the Norwegian University of Life
Sciences.
Building a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula | November 5, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The
U.S. and South Korean dialogues with the North raise the important issue of
what a long-term process of building a “peace regime” would look like and what
the implications might be for the U.S.-ROK alliance. Up for debate is the fate
of U.S. troops in South Korea and other security and diplomatic arrangements
that have come to be taken for granted over the past 70+ years. It is hard to
overstate the importance of these arrangements: They have underpinned the
political and economic development of South Korea into one of the freest and
most prosperous states in the world even while keeping that state in nuclear
and military peril from the North.
Please join us for a special forum with leading U.S. and
South Korean experts to discuss these issues and to understand where we are
with North Korea today and the outlook of the future.
1:00 – 1:05
PM WELCOMING REMARKS
Dr. Victor Cha, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair, CSIS; D.S. Song-KF
Professor of Government and Vice Dean, Georgetown University; Former National
Security Council
1:05 – 1:15
PM OPENING REMARKS
1:15 – 2:30
PM PANEL 1: The Peace
Regime and U.S.-ROK Alliance
Moderator:
Mr. Scott Snyder, Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program
on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations
Panelists:
Dr. Cho Seong-ryoul, Senior Adviser, Institute for National Security Strategy
Dr. Lee Sang-hyun, Senior Research Fellow, Sejong Institute
Mr. David Maxwell, Senior Fellow, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Dr. James Przystup, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Strategic Research,
National Defense University
2:30 – 2:45
PM COFFEE BREAK
2:45 – 4:00
PM PANEL 2: U.S.
and North Korea today and in the future
Moderator:
Dr. Sue Mi Terry, Senior
Fellow, CSIS Korea Chair; Former Senior Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency;
former Korea director, National Security Council
Panelists:
Amb. Mark Lippert, Senior
Advisor, CSIS Korea Chair; Vice President, Boeing International; Former U.S.
Ambassador to the Republic of Korea
Dr. Jung Pak, Senior Fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea
Studies, the Brookings Institution
Amb. Kathleen Stephens, President & CEO, Korea Economic Institute of America;
Former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea
Ms. Kelly Magsamen, Vice President, National Security and International Policy,
Center for American Progress
Securing America’s Financial Borders | November 5, 2019 | 12:45 PM – 2:30 PM | Hudson Institute, 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host an event to discuss strengthening U.S. national security through the prevention of illicit finance. Panelists will include Bank Policy Institute Senior Vice President Angelena Bradfield; U.S. Treasury Department Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Senior Policy Advisor Young Lee; and German Marshall Fund Fellow Josh Rudolph. The discussion will be moderated by Hudson Research Fellow Nate Sibley.
Kleptocrats, terrorists, drug cartels, and other transnational criminals exploit vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system every day to launder the profits of crime and corruption. This has prompted recent efforts by U.S. policymakers for a more active approach to address illicit finance. Panelists will discuss recent anti-money laundering developments and additional measures that can be implemented as Congress considers updating the anti-money laundering regime and improving corporate transparency in the U.S.
Speakers
Angelena Bradfield
Senior Vice President, AML/BSA, Sanctions & Privacy, Bank Policy Institute
Young Lee
Senior Policy Advisor, Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Josh Rudolph
Fellow for Malign Finance, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund
Nate Sibley Moderator
Research Fellow, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson
Institute
Contesting the Indo-Pacific: Military Technology and the Shifting Offense-Defense Balance | November 7, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
China’s growing capability and influence across the Indo-Pacific provokes pressing questions for U.S. strategy in the region. With Asia undergoing major power transitions and advances in military technology potentially shifting the offense-defense balance, how should the United States, its allies, and its partners across the Indo-Pacific respond?
Eugene Gholz (University of Notre Dame) will present research suggesting that the trajectory of military technology may reinforce the US and its partners’ ability to create buffers against hostile powers, deny aggression, and enhance deterrence with the robust application of anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) systems.
Featured Guest:
Eugene Gholz, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Discussants:
Yun Sun, East Asia Program Co-Director, Stimson Center
Evan Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Director of Research and Studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Moderator:
Sameer
Lalwani, South Asia Program Director,
Stimson Center
Blurring the line: Politics and the military in a post-9/11 America | November 7, 2019 | 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM | AEI, Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Americans’ faith in political and social institutions has waned dramatically in recent years. But there is still one institution that US citizens overwhelmingly trust: the military. Politicians, voters, and the media alike increasingly turn to current and former members of the military to participate in public debate, assume leadership positions in the government, and even run for elected office. As the line between military and politics blurs, can the military maintain its revered tradition of nonpartisanship? And when it comes to public service, is there really such a thing as being apolitical?
Please join AEI for two panel discussions exploring these questions and the civil-military dynamics in the post-9/11 era.
Join the conversation on social media with @AEI on Twitter and Facebook.
If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.
Agenda
7:45 AM
Registration
8:00 AM
Introduction:
Rebecca Burgess, AEI
8:05 AM
Panel I: ‘Second Service’: Electoral politics and the veteran
Panelists:
Rebecca Burgess,
AEI
Seth Lynn, Veterans Campaign
Jeremy Teigen, Ramapo College
Moderator:
Joe Kristol, US Marine Corps
(former)
8:45 AM
Q&A
9:00 AM
Panel II: A professional and a politician: Finding the ‘dash’ in the
civil-military dynamics
Panelists:
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Jim Golby, US Army
Heidi
Urben, US Army
Moderator:
Giselle Donnelly, AEI
9:50 AM
Q&A
10:00 AM
Adjournment
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Peace Picks | October 21 – October 25
U.S. Policy Priorities for Afghanistan: A Conversation with U.S. Representative Mike Waltz | October 21, 2019 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 2003 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host U.S. Representative (FL) Michael Waltz to address U.S. policy priorities for Afghanistan. In conversation with Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies at MEI, Rep. Waltz will discuss the many complicated challenges facing Afghanistan, key regional challenges to consider, and policy prescriptions given the fallout of the deal with the Taliban.
Yemen and International Humanitarian Law: Briefing from UN Experts | October 21, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036-2103 | Register Here
The conflict in Yemen has killed more than 90,000 Yemenis and put more than 20 million in need of humanitarian assistance. The UN Group of Eminent International and Regional Experts on Yemen (GEE) have just released a new report describing a “pervasive lack of accountability” for violations of international humanitarian and human rights law. How will the latest developments in the conflict, including the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, affect the dire conditions in the country and the prospects for accountability?
Please join the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies for a briefing by the experts on their recent report. Chair Kamel Jendoubi as well as members Melissa Parke and Charles Garraway will present their findings. Yemeni human rights defender Radhya al-Mutawakel will add her perspective. Carnegie’s Michele Dunne will moderate the conversation.
This event is co-sponsored by the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies.
More in the Med: Revitalizing NATO’s Southern Strategy for an Era of Great Power Competition | October 22, 2019 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM | Atlantic Council Headquarters, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
Over the last 5 years, NATO has made huge strides to defend and deter against Russia in Europe’s northeast – what NATO does best. But its work in Europe’s south – in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa – continues to fall short. This is not only a missed opportunity to mitigate the real, and growing, challenges along NATO’s Mediterranean and Black Sea frontiers, such as instability, terrorism, and uncontrolled migration, together with a more aggressive Russia and rising China; neglecting the threats closest to home for southern allies also threatens the solidarity and cohesion among allies that are essential to transatlantic security in an era of intensifying great power competition.
To help reinvigorate NATO’s southern strategy for today’s environment, the Transatlantic Security Initiative is launching a new report, co-authored by Ambassador Alexander Vershbow and Lauren Speranza. The paper argues that NATO’s south is not just about projecting stability, but also defense, deterrence, and containment. It outlines specific recommendations for how to project stability better, make the south ‘the new east’ through an enhanced Southern presence, and bolster regional leadership – particularly from Italy, a key ally at the heart of NATO’s south.
Opening Remarks
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council
Alessandro Profumo
Chief Executive Officer
Leonardo S.p.A.
Keynote Address
General James L. Jones, Jr., USMC (Ret.)
Executive Chairman Emeritus
Atlantic Council
Discussion
Ambassador Philip Reeker
Acting Assistant Secretary of European and Eurasian Affairs
US Department of State
Ambassador Alexander Vershbow
Distinguished Fellow, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
Atlantic Council
Ambassador Armando Varicchio
Ambassador
Embassy of Italy to the United States
Kirsten Fontenrose
Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative
Atlantic Council
Moderator
Lauren Speranza
Deputy Director, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
Atlantic Council
Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela? | October 23, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
As the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela continues to deteriorate, a debate has risen among policymakers as to whether or not sanctions may be worsening conditions for Venezuelan citizens.
While the United States, the Lima Group, the European Union, and other like-minded nations continue to increase pressure on the regime of Nicolás Maduro with diplomatic measures such as challenging his government’s legitimacy, the question remains as to whether sanctions are an effective measure for changing the behavior of the Venezuelan regime and pushing Maduro to step down. Despite external support by Russia, Cuba, China, and a few other countries, Maduro is more alienated on the world stage than ever before. However, stiff sanctions and diplomatic isolation have not yet convinced Maduro to negotiate his exit, as his regime has proven to be resilient and adaptable.
The expert panel will assess the efficacy
of sanctions, including what is and is not working, as well as implications for
U.S. foreign policy, the energy sector, and the impact on Venezuela’s
humanitarian crisis and its struggle for democracy.
Panel Discussion Featuring:
Eric B. Lorber, Director, Financial Integrity
Network
Elizabeth
Rosenberg, Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Economics,
and Security Program, Center for a New American Security
David
Smolansky, Coordinator of the OAS Working Group on Venezuelan
Migrants and Refugees; Former Mayor of El Hatillo, Venezuela
Francisco J.
Monaldi, Fellow, Latin American Energy Policy, Rice University
Moderated by:
Moises Rendon, Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative; Fellow, CSIS Americas Program
The Navy in an era of great power competition | October 23, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM | Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
America’s maritime forces are undergoing significant changes to address the realities of great power competition. Evolving technology, ongoing uncertainty about the budgetary and fiscal climate, and accelerating innovation by America’s competitors have forced the Navy and Marine Corps to adapt quickly and comprehensively to fulfill the vision laid out for them in the National Defense Strategy. Much work, though, remains to be done.
On October 23, the Brookings Institution will host Richard Spencer, the 76th secretary of the Navy, to discuss naval modernization, the budgetary environment, and the challenges posed by America’s great power rivals to America’s maritime forces. The keynote address will be followed by a discussion between Secretary Spencer and Michael E. O’Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy.
Partners against crime: Fighting cartels and corruption in the Americas | October 25, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 11:00 AM | AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Transnational organized crime is a threat that reaches throughout the Western Hemisphere in the form of drug cartels, gangs, guerrilla groups, and crooked officials. These groups destabilize governments, spread violence, and undermine economic development. The United States relies on vital regional cooperation and partnerships to combat this threat, yet these partnerships can be disrupted by political shifts, corruption, and a lack of institutional capacity.
Please join AEI for a conversation on transnational organized crime, corruption, and the importance of regional partnerships. Attorney General of El Salvador Raúl Melara will deliver opening remarks, followed by a panel discussion with leading experts.
Panelists:
Ryan Berg, AEI
Roberto Gil Zuarth, President of the Senate of Mexico (2015–16)
Celina Realuyo, William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, National Defense University
Moderator:
Juan José Daboub, AEI
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A Kurdish view of Turkey’s invasion
Yousif Ismael is the Director of Media and Policy at the Washington Kurdish Institute. Colin Tait is a Research Assistant at the Middle East Institute.
Colin Tait: What can we expect in the coming days in northeastern Syria with this invasion?
Yousif Ismael: It’s already started. It has already resulted into the death of two civilians and the injury of one. The airstrikes are intense and covering all the bordering towns between Syria, the Kurdish region, and Turkey. We expect a lot of internally displaced people from those areas to go south. We expect massacres and we say massacres because we have experience with the same groups and the same state with Turkey and the jihadists in Afrin in March of 2018. We expect disaster and unfortunately, there’s not a lot of ears to eat.
CT: Ankara right now claims that they just planned to establish a safe zone and peace corridor along the border. Do you expect that they will go further south?
YI: First of all, the peace corridor or whatever they call it is based on a war propaganda. This is not reality. Sometimes they claim to fight ISIS but there is no ISIS over there whatsoever. The Kurds secured that region and the Kurds have never shot a bullet against Turkey from that region. It’s safer than the bordering points that Turkey has with the opposition groups and with Assad elsewhere. So, this is just a war propaganda. They are talking about a safe zone of 30 kilometers deep that basically is the Kurdish region of Syria. What people need to understand is that the Turkish ambition is historical against the Kurds. They are against any Kurdish entity rising up. They did the same thing in Iraqi Kurdistan, but then there was an imposed no-fly zone against Saddam which helped the Kurds create the entity. The same thing with Syria, they’re fighting with Turkey. Inside Turkey, the Kurds of course are suffering since 1923 when the Turkish state was built. We are worried it is not going to be only that but the 30 kilometers is good enough for Turkey to destroy the Kurdish region.
CT: The US removal of troops has caused a lot of short-term disasters that are occurring in the region. What is the long-term blowback you think for the region as a whole as well as the damage to the relationship between the Kurds and United States?
YI: Now the Americans as people, as lawmakers, as media, and as think tanks have showed their true feelings, which is about supporting the Kurdish and avoiding massacres and genocide. It mostly itself is based on the humanitarian situation. We love and we appreciate what America has showed to us except President Trump. He is the only one who is convinced to allow Turkey to invade and commit massacres. In the short-term, the US doesn’t have good policy in Syria. They gave up the West during the Obama Administration and now, they’re giving up East to Turkey during the Trump Administration. The relationship will always be great between the two Nations. However, the Kurds right now are obligated to go to our enemies and the enemies of the US as well, which is Iran, the Assad regime, and Russia to get some source of some protection. It is a fight for survival.
To be fair and far from emotions, the Syrian regime and Russia also don’t offer much to the Kurds. They don’t give them any entity or any rights. But to surrender the entire region to Assad, which is basically going back to pre-2012, the Kurds were persecuted without citizenship and had no rights. We didn’t have many options.
Going back to the cooperation between the US and Kurds, the Kurds wanted to defend their land and not become refugees and stay in their homeland. And the only people to help them they were the US and the US-led Coalition which was great. The Kurds defended their land thanks to the US but also the Kurds fought with US on behalf of the world against terror organizations. It’s two sides of the argument here and we are very disappointed that this big threat to the national security of the US and elsewhere is not affecting the president’s decision making because ISIS is on the verge to come back. Al-Qaeda is only becoming stronger and nobody’s even talking about it. They even have schools. They have thousands of troops in Syria. Then we’re talking about Iran, yet we’ve given them another strategic part which affects the allies of the US.
CT: Going back to the Kurds and the US and Trump harming the relationship. Congress on both sides of the spectrum have said that they want to impose sanctions and push back on President Trump’s decision. Do you think sanctions are enough? And what can US policymakers do to backpedal and reverse this decision.
YI: Just a side note. The only bipartisan non-binding resolution that took place by the Senate was in January or December of last year when Trump wanted to withdraw. That was the only bipartisan movement. The Kurds united the two sides, the Democrats and Republicans. This same thing is repeating itself, which is amazing because national security should be a bipartisan issue. It should not be a Democratic or Republican. But yes, sanctions are not enough. There’s always a veto by the president and there are always ways to get away with it. Turkey got away with breaking the sanctions of the US against Iran. Turkey got away with buying Russian weapons. Turkey got away with helping the Venezuelan dictatorship by trading gold between Iran and Venezuela and this is all on record on a media publicly. I think that a good immediate solution is to shut down the skies on Turkey to stop these massacres against the Kurds. The Kurds then could figure out how to resist or just to survive better than allowing them to use the sky. A no-fly zone would be ideal and that should be the priority of Congress.
CT: I met with a former Syrian diplomat and he discussed how the Autonomous Administration of North Eastern Syria is the best model for the future of a stable Syria. What can be done to preserve this idea as Turkey starts to invade Northeastern Syria?
YI: The US built this multi-ethnic Kurdish majority and now Arab majority multi-ethnic force that defeated the most brutal organization of ISIS. After that, Kurds helped the other communities, with the help of the US DOD and Pentagon to be specific, to help these civilian councils to manage. This is a very secular decentralized system that is pro-human rights and women rights. They have a different vision and they’re not calling for independent Kurdistan. They want to remain in Syria.
It is a very good model to follow. The only way to preserve it is to stop Turkey because sooner or later, if this continues, Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime will pounce at the towns because the Kurds cannot fight everyone and all the Kurds are asking for is peace and talks with Turkey.
Nobody wants war. Nobody wants to be killed. 11,000 YPG members have been killed and 22,000 injured as the SDF. This is affecting 200 thousand families. Look how many families are affected by this. The economy there is stable. All of these displaced people are in that region. Turkey is complaining about the refugees, but that region also has refugees. The Kurds were welcoming them even though they are under blockage of Syria, Turkey, and sometimes even by Iraq. It is not just a Kurdish problem. It is a Syrian problem.
CT: Can you talk about how the International Community aside from the United States can help with this crisis?
YI: To be fair, it is European responsibility even before the US to prevent this. Europe is closer to Turkey and the terrorists will eventually make their way to Europe before the United States. The Europeans should definitely do more, and I urge them and beg them and ask them to stop this invasion because this is not in their interest and not in Turkey’s interest, meaning the economy and the authoritarian regime of Turkey. This is having the Turkish soldiers ordered to go fight for something that is not his problem. This is something that is personal to Erdogan and his dictatorship ideology to resolve this Islamic Empire of Ottomans and this and that. It’s against the interest of everyone. I hope the Europeans will be serious and finally step up their game and prevent what is to happen in the coming days.
CT: What are you and other Kurdish organizations here in DC and around the country plan to do about this issue?
YI: We do our job as raising awareness. We defended the political, the culture, and the human rights of the Kurds in all parts. Today, Syrian Kurdistan is really in trouble and they’re facing massacres by Turkey. We will continue raising awareness, but we are again thankful for every voice from actors to think tanks to the media to lawmakers that they came up and spoke the truth and stood against the bad decision of President Trump.
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Peace Picks | October 7 – 11
A Vision for the Future of Missile Defense | October 7, 2019 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The CSIS Missile Defense Project is pleased to welcome Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to speak on his vision and intent for the Agency. An industry panel will follow his remarks.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30 Conversation between VADM Jon Hill and Dr. Tom Karako, Director, Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:40 Coffee break
10:40-12:00 Panel discussion featuring Sarah
Reeves, Vice President of Missile Defense Programs, Lockheed Martin
Space, John Schumacher, Vice President, Washington Operations,
Aerojet Rocketdyne, Paul Smith, Vice President and Program
Director of GMD, Boeing, Dr. Mitch Stevison, Vice President,
Raytheon Missile Systems, and Brig. Gen. Kenn Todorov (USAF, ret.), Vice
President of Missile Defense Solutions, Northrop Grumman Corporation.
More than a Wallet: The Role of the Private Sector in Development | October 7, 2019 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The international community predominately sees the private sector as the answer to the gap in financing for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but what other roles can the private sector play in development? Large multinational corporations have been operating in some of the most fragile contexts for years and could offer technical assistance to NGOs and aid agencies. The private sector also supplies 9 out of 10 jobs in developing countries and can help encourage foreign direct investment. Development agencies could also learn from the private sector’s longstanding and resilient value chains throughout emerging markets. This event will explore these topics and feature representatives from the U.S. government, multinational corporations, SMEs, and development practitioners.
FEATURING
CEO, CollaborateUp
Senior Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, Chemonics International
Senior Advisor, mClinica
Private Sector Engagement Coordinator, USAID
New Strategic Visions and Power Competition in the Middle East |October 8, 2019 | 9:00 am | Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
In collaboration with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the conference will discuss new strategic visions and power competition in the Middle East. The event is organized within the framework of the fifth edition of MED – Rome Mediterranean Dialogues, which will take place later this year in Rome.
The growing power of China and the renewed assertiveness of Russia seem to be a prelude to a new phase of depreciation of Western impact on the rest of the world, if not the opening of a great competition for the redistribution of power and international status. In the context of this global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse of the Middle Eastern order. The idea of a “Russian resurgence’” in the Middle East set against an American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike and warrants further examination of renewed power competition in the region.
We hope you will join us for this important event, which will also mark the release of a new collected volume, “The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition,” edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli.
9:00 a.m. Introductory remarks
Amb. Giampiero Massolo
President
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
H.E. Armando Varicchio
Ambassador
Embassy of Italy to the United States
9:30 a.m. Update on current US strategy toward the region
Mr. David Schenker
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
10:15 a.m. Transatlantic foreign policy in the MENA region
Amb. Barbara Leaf
Senior Fellow
The Washington Institute
Dr. Haizam Amirah-Fernández
Senior Analyst
Elcano Royal Institute
Mr. William Wechsler
Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs
Atlantic Council
11:40 a.m. New policies for old actors: Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey
Dr. Jon Alterman
Director, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Mark N. Katz
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council
Dr. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Research Fellow
Royal United Services Institute
Dr. Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies
Middle East Institute
1:00 p.m. Lunch Served
1:20 – 2:30 p.m. Keynote Address: A new strategic vision for the United States
Gen. Joseph Votel
Former Commander
US Central Command (CENTCOM)
Moderators
Dr. Karim Mezran
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Dr. Arturo Varvelli
Senior Research Fellow and Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Center
ISPI
The Global Challenge of Political Polarization | October 8, 2019 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Political polarization is tearing at the seams of democracies around the world, from Bangladesh, Brazil, and India, to Poland, Turkey, and the United States. Why is polarization coming to a boil in so many different places at once? Is polarization similar everywhere or marked by substantial differences? How can severely divided democracies restore at least some national political consensus? Are there relevant lessons for the United States from polarized democracies elsewhere? Thomas Carothers will address these questions, drawing on the new book he has co-edited with Andrew O’Donohue, Democracies Divided: The Global Challenge of Political Polarization. Anne Applebaum, Naomi Hossain, and Sarah Yerkes will provide in-depth perspectives on key country cases.
THOMAS CAROTHERS
Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and carries out research and writing on democracy-related issues.
ANNE APPLEBAUM
Anne Applebaum is a columnist for the Washington Post and a Pulitzer-prize winning historian. She is also a senior fellow at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
NAOMI HOSSAIN
Naomi Hossain is a political sociologist at the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex, currently based at the Accountability Research Center at American University. She is the author of The Aid Lab: Understanding Bangladesh’s Unexpected Success.
SARAH YERKES
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
CARLOS LOZADA
Carlos Lozada is the nonfiction book
critic of the Washington Post and a Carnegie Endowment visiting
scholar. He is also an adjunct professor of political journalism with the
University of Notre Dame’s Washington program.
Trade, Development, and Security: A Discussion on the Potential of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Middle East Institute, 1763 N St. NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an event addressing the possibility of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement within the wider context of Egyptian development, economy, and security. A US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement has been under discussion, on and off, for the better part of two decades. A new report launched by MEI, “Trade, Reform and Revitalization: Towards a Free Trade Agreement,” finds that a free trade agreement would be mutually beneficial, but its success will depend on the adoption of the kind of reforms integral to the growth of Egypt’s economy. Without vibrant growth, powered by an active private sector, Egypt’s economy may falter, affecting its political and economic stability and security.
To address this topic, CEO of the AmCham Egypt Inc in
Egypt Hisham Fahmy will be accompanied by Deborah Lehr,
CEO of Basilinna, and Mirette F. Mabrouk, the director of MEI’s
Egypt Studies program. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior
Vice President, will moderate the discussion.
Belt and Road in Latin America: Where does the future lie? | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am| 1030 15th St NW 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20005 | Register Here
Over the past six years, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded across the globe, drawing varied reactions ranging from full-on support to deep-running skepticism. Latin America and the Caribbean, long considered peripheral to the BRI, is increasingly engaging with the initiative – 19 countries have already signed on. As BRI continues to evolve, what are some new areas and trends to watch? What are the implications of BRI for regional governments and the business community? In what ways could BRI affect the United States and its interests?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center on Wednesday, October 9, 2019, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (EDT) for a high-level conversation on the BRI in Latin America and its implications for the region.
*Speakers to be Announced*
By, With, and Through: A Closer Look at CENTCOM’s Approach in the Middle East | October 10, 2019 | 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The effective prosecution of America’s new global priority of competing with China and Russia requires the reallocation of U.S. military resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere. This in turn places a higher premium on U.S. security cooperation with partners in the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)’s “By, With, and Through” approach can help further the goals of security cooperation and specifically develop closer ties with partner forces in the region. But is it working? And if it isn’t, what are the main challenges both at home and abroad, and what will it take to generate better results?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to convene a
panel of experts to reflect on this subject. Bilal Y. Saab, MEI’s Senior
Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program, will discuss some of
the key findings of an upcoming publication in the 2019 Fall issue of The
Washington Quarterly entitled, “Broken Partnerships: Can Washington
Get Security Cooperation Right?.” He will be joined by General Joseph
Votel, former CENTCOM Commander and currently a nonresident distinguished
senior fellow at MEI; Dana Stroul, senior fellow in The Washington
Institute’s Beth and David Geduld Program on Arab Politics; and Kenneth
Pollack, author of Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab
Military Effectiveness and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. The conversation will be moderated by Eric Schmitt of
the New York Times.
Elections, Peace Talks, and U.S. Policy: What’s Next for Afghanistan? | October 10, 2019 |1:00 pm — 2:30 pm | One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004 6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
Eighteen years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, the country is not only still at war—it is also in a state of flux. Its political future is uncertain, with the final results of a September 28 presidential election not expected until November. The fate of a fledgling peace and reconciliation process has been unclear since U.S. President Donald Trump called off talks with the Taliban. The direction of U.S. policy, and particularly the future American military presence, is also a major question. This event will take stock of Afghanistan’s various challenges amid so much uncertainty; discuss what we can expect to see in the coming weeks and months; and consider the best—and worst—ways forward for Kabul and Washington.
Speakers
Independent Consultant
Director, Center for Stability and Development, CNA Corporation
Journalist and TV Host, Voice of America
Senior Program Officer for Afghanistan, U.S. Institute of Peace
Social Activist and Co-Founder, Her Afghanistan
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Accountability should not wait
On September 27, the Middle East Institute and the Pro-Justice jointly hosted a panel to launch the new book, Blacklist: Violations Committed by the Most Prominent Syrian Regime Figures and How to Bring Them to Justice. Blacklist identifies and provides detailed information on nearly 100 individuals accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria over the past eight years. The book sheds light on the crimes themselves and outlines potential political and judicial avenues available to bring the perpetrators to justice.
The panel consisted of Anne Barnard, a New York Times journalist who has extensively covered the conflict in Syria, Wael Sawah, the president and director of Pro-Justice and former executive director of the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, and Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at MEI. The event was moderated by Joyce Karam, who is the Washington correspondent for The National and adjunct professor at George Washington University.
The Syrian conflict is approaching its ninth year and increasingly becoming forgotten by the international community. Lister gave a broad overview of wartime consequences to remind the panel and audience of the ongoing atrocity. Syria is a disastrous humanitarian crisis with roughly 500,000 deaths since 2011. The conflict has an extensive history of war crimes, most of which are perpetuated by the central government of Syria. The Assad regime is responsible for 89% of civilian deaths, 99% of torture deaths, 89% of arbitrary arrests, and 85% of forced displacements. Barnard noted that even before the conflict, there were high rates of detention in the elaborate prison system established throughout the Assad dynasty, but as the conflict escalated from 2011 onward, the situation worsened. The UN has labeled the prisons in Syria as exterminate conditions with a system of sadistic torture and high levels of disease.
Sawah continued by saying that these facts and figures are important to note because without accountability and justice, there will never be a lasting peace in Syria. He stated that Blacklist is an important publication to act as an open guide to identify the perpetuators and assist legal professionals in creating a foundational narrative to work towards holding those responsible of crimes against humanity. Barnard agreed and said that the industrial prison system has fostered the ability of the regime to commit these crimes. 100,000 Syrians have not been located after their time detained. It is important to work towards identifying the fates of these people to take initial steps towards reaching justice through administering accountability.
Lister discussed how legal accountability does not seem likely for Assad and high-ranking members of the regime because the general perception is that the Syrian conflict has been won by the regime. He notes that it is far from over, but in the short-term sanctions on these individuals can restrict their international travel and ability to act as legitimate statesmen. Doing so will isolate the regime and not allow it to operate with impunity.
Sawah talked about the pivotal role Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran have played in enabling the Assad regime to survive throughout the civil war. The regime would have collapsed by 2013 without their support. They must be held accountable for their support of Assad and their own war crimes. Lister echoed this by mentioning the Russian precision strikes on civilian hospitals in opposition-held regions. He suggested that the US needs to begin an investigation of Russian war crimes to develop a portfolio of reports to name and shame their heinous actions against Syrian civilians.
The panel agreed that continued investigations such as Blacklist are needed to reach a stable peace in the future. Without making accountability for injustices, opposition groups will flourish, and civilians will continue to disdain the regime.
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