Category: Daniel Serwer
A Passover for the Palestinians
Tonight is the first Passover Seder. Jews around the world will gather with family, friends, and community to commemorate liberation. It is not clear from which ancient Egyptian Pharaoh.
But that doesn’t really matter. It is even unclear whether the Jews were ever in Egypt, never mind as slaves. Passover is a universal story of liberation, adopted by many different people of many different faiths.
No other land
We started our celebration early with a viewing of the Oscar-winning film No Other Land this morning. A heavily Jewish audience packed the Avalon Theater, which still graces upper Connecticut Avenue. The film shows the mistreatment of Palestinian villagers on the West Bank. The perpetrators are Jewish Israelis, both soldiers and settlers. It also portrays a friendship between a Jewish Israeli journalist and an Arab Palestinian activist. They share the goal of making the ongoing abuses better known, even if birth has given them different identities. In fact, they are sometimes hard to tell apart.
At the Seder tonight, there will be concern for the Jewish hostages Hamas still holds in Gaza. But there will also be concern for the mistreatment of Palestinians, both in Gaza and on the West Bank. If the Passover commemoration is to be universal, it should not exclude abuse against any fellow human beings. What the Israelis are doing to Palestinians is simply unacceptable to me.
Unfortunately, many Israelis disagree. They are determined to expel their Arab neighbors. They want “the land” for themselves and to share it with as few others as possible. Sure, a few Christians are acceptable, if that guarantees support from the American evangelical community. But even Reform Jews like me are not really welcome in Israel, partly because we don’t want to expel Palestinians.
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I can understand the strong attachment of Jews to the Holy Land. I don’t understand how Jews can deny other people an attachment they themselves feel. It’s not only about religion, which goes unmentioned in No Other Land. Or language–some of the Palestinians in the film speak Hebrew fluently. The Palestinian villagers are poor people, at least some of whom have lived in the West Bank for generations. How would you ever bulldoze their homes and schools, without compensation?
Yes, this is what white Americans did to the native American population, mostly before 1900. But standards change. That doesn’t make it acceptable in 2025. And I hope I would not have supported it even in 1750. Certainly today I am not offended if native Americans remind us on whose land we live and seek just compensation. I despair that they will get it, but they are entitled at least to respect for their claims.
Today we share America with the surviving descendants of those who once were its exclusive inhabitants. That’s what Jewish Israelis need to learn to do. Instead, they are using superior military force to expand their territory and expropriate rightful residents. Might makes right can work for a while. But in the end they will need to share the land. Best to start that sooner rather than later.
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The damage is vast and continuing
I’ve been at a workshop in Boston for these last few chaotic days. On the perhaps mistaken theory that President Trump will stick with the current tariffs, where do things stand?
The ugly
The losses on the stock market still amount to more than 10% of its value and trillions of dollars. If your timing was bad, you sold just before Trump suspended tariffs on most countries yesterday, causing a bump upwards. Odds are Trump, his family, and advisers did not make that mistake. Even if they didn’t use insider information to trade, they no doubt used it to desist from trading.
Trump’s on again, off again tariff decisions have done serious damage not only to the stock market. The bond market fall was a decisive factor in his “off” switch. That suggested strong inflation and rising interest rates, which would kill the Biden expansion Trump inherited. Stagflation is still a serious possibility.
With stocks and bonds collapsing, it would be surprising if Americans were to stay confident in the markets. The same is true for foreigners. The cash flow into the US that enables the trade deficit Trump wants to get rid of is in danger. Among the big buyers of US government bonds are the Chinese. Are they going to continue to buy, or even hold, those?
Markets rely on confidence. Trump has done everything possible since his inauguration to undermine it. Consumer confidence is declining sharply towards the relatively low level it hit during the COVID19 epidemic:
The bad
Trump’s tariffs are still there. The Economist estimates we’ve gone from an average effective tariff level of 3% to 25%. That is a giant increase that will hurt the American economy in many different ways. Because of our dependence on Chinese products, America is going to lose the trade war with China. Tariffs are still raising American costs, and Chinese retaliation is hurting US exports.
The automobile sector will be hard hit. American manufacturers, and foreign producers who manufacture in the US, are going to face sharply high costs. The capacity to ramp up domestic production of parts is limited. While the United Auto Workers union is applauding, few new jobs will result in the near term. Many more will be lost to the impending slowdown in the economy.
The good
If there is a silver lining, it is in national consciousness. Americans are becoming aware of their connections to the rest of the world. No one can ignore the damage that an incompetent and capricious president can do. Trade and alliances count. A Federal government that can think clearly and act sensibly is indispensable.
Some of this consciousness will help people understand the damage that cutting the Federal work force and budget will do. The so-called Department of Government Effectiveness has already demonstrated its vast incompetence. It is also hurting states and cities all over the country. The $2 trillion cut the House is asking for will cut deep into Medicaid and likely Medicare as well. Social Security is also at risk.
The simple fact is we were better off on January 19 than we are today. If Trump keeps this up, he will rank as a disastrous president.
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People are not pleased but it will get worse
Hard to picture a worse reception than President Trump got for his latest tariffs. American consumers are recognizing that they are inflationary, the stock market tanked, and the rest of the world gasped. That presumably includes the penguins on Heard Island, one of at least two places subject to Trump’s tariffs where no people live.
Not good for Americans
Trump’s minions are out trying to convince Americans the tariffs will not increase prices. But they will. Domestic producers will raise their prices, because they can once the competition raises its prices. The tariffs will act as a tax on consumption, reducing disposable income and slowing the economy.
The protection for domestic producers is badly targeted from a labor perspective. Americans don’t want to work in tee shirt factories that can compete with Vietnam’s. Nor do most Americans want to pick peaches. The US is a developed country that has moved up the value chain.
The re-shoring of manufacturing jobs to America will be slow. It takes years to build serious factories. What investor, seeing how capriciously Trump behaves, would lay out a few billion just because he has announced a 10% tariff? That could disappear tomorrow. Under Biden, the American economy had already created a record number of manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing in Trump’s first term lost jobs, partly due to the COVID-19 epidemic he mismanaged.
Eighty per cent of our jobs are in services. Retaliation will hit those hard and fast.
The economy
So inflation will be up, jobs will be down. The odds of a recession are way up. The firing of tens of thousands of government workers will hit communities all across the country, not just in Washington DC.
Wait until those who own stock have a hard look at their portfolios. They will cut back on spending. This “wealth” effect will be particularly pronounced for retired people, who are required to take amounts fixed on December 31 from their retirement accounts. Unless they anticipated the downturn in the market, they’ll have to raise those amounts by selling stock worth much less than it did a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Fed will have to do what it can to moderate prices. Its only real tool is to raise interest rates, which will pinch consumers even more. Trump will rail against the Fed, but it will have to hold the line.
The rest of the world
Trump is telling people the tariffs are not a negotiating ploy. He wants them to stay for years, which is the only way they can boost domestic production. This means America’s trading partners will be retaliating hard and fast, while turning to increased trade with each other. That will give them the competition they need to enhance productivity, while American industry grows fat and lazy behind high tariff walls.
The consequences will be felt in many ways. Innovation will lag. Trump has already done enormous damage to America’s research universities and government research institutions. His erratic enforcement of immigration laws is also actively discouraging foreigners from coming to the US. Young scientists and engineers will be going for advanced education to universities in Europe, Latin America, Australia, India, and China rather than the US. It’s not only the tourism industry that will suffer from their absence. Immigrant entrepreneurs are a far higher percentage of the total than immigrants are in the population.
Is it all purposeful?
It is tempting to suggest that all this is not an accident. Trump has repeatedly shown an inclination to weaken the United States, especially in Europe. Is that the real purpose?
But I’m afraid that would give him too much credit. The tariffs and immigration policy are just dumb. He is a profoundly uneducated mercantilist and racist. But I wouldn’t say the same about the attack on the universities and research institutions. That is an effort to rid the country of people who would dare to challenge him on factual and rational grounds. He wants an America swollen with racial prejudice and isolated from the world. Half the country supported that objective in last November’s election.
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Okay, but still a long way to go
Yesterday was an election day in parts of the United States. The most important races were in two deep-red Congressional districts in Florida and a state court judgeship in Wisconsin. In Florida, the Republicans won, despite heavy Democratic spending. The margins were half of what Trump had scored just five months ago. In Wisconsin, the more liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat, despite Elon Musk’s massive spending and personal campaigning.
By-elections don’t often excite the US. But the media had billed these as early referendums on the Trump Administration. The Wisconsin contest will decide the court’s balance on issues like abortion and redistricting. That could be important in the long run. The Florida races will not change the majority in the House, but they are bellwethers. They suggest a big shift away from Trump.
Break it and never fix it
Nevertheless, no one should expect big changes. Trump today will announce big tariffs. That will trigger retaliation against US exports worldwide. Musk’s firing of government workers continues, including Internal Revenue Service people who collect far more additional in taxes than they cost. The National Security adviser continues to use insecure communications. The immigration enforcement folks have admitted at least one mistaken deportation, but they are not going to try to bring the man back from El Salvador. This is the break it and never fix it Administration.
That applies also abroad. Trump has left Ukraine dangling. Kyiv has agreed to a limited ceasefire but Trump can’t get Moscow to do likewise. Encouraged by Trump’s bellicosity, Israel is breaking the ceasefire with Hamas. Greenlanders have made it clear they don’t want to be part of the US, but Trump is proceeding with planning to take over the vast ice land. Canadians have done likewise, but Trump persists.
How will this play out?
Most of my friends want to know how all this will eventually play out. The short answer is I don’t know. We seem to still be far from the kind of political upheaval that will reverse the madness. Senator Booker broke the record for speaking in the Senate yesterday, at over 25 hours denouncing the Administration. That may rally some support from a few Democrats. There will be demonstrations countrywide this Saturday, but Trump and his minions will ignore those.
Until there is a Democratic majority in at least one of the Houses of Congress, it is up to the courts to slow and block the worst of Trump’s behavior. They are doing okay. But they are expensive and slow. Their remedies are often blunt or lacking. And ultimately the supermajority of “conservatives” (that is Republican hacks) on the Supreme Court get to decide. Justices Alito and Thomas will do anything Trump wants. The other four Republican nominees are not far behind.
Diasporas are the best hope
Even the courts won’t help much with foreign policy, as the President’s powers there are vast. The best hope lies in diasporas from around the world. They have a lot of domestic influence in parts of the United States. I’m told the diaspora was responsible for getting Marco Rubio to say the right thing recently about Bosnia. That should be a lesson to Albanians, Ukrainians, Poles, Taiwanese, and others.
The key is to find a place where your diaspora can make a real difference in a House or Senate election outcome. Then find a major influencer or contributor to Republican campaigns willing to threaten to withdraw support. That may get a hearing, if you are connected in the right way. Trump is transactional. The diasporas have the potential to make transactional bargains with him.
Meanwhile, the rest of us marvel: is this the same America that once welcomed those yearning to breathe free? Or is this a revival of the 1920s and 1930s America that tried to limit immigration, raise tariffs, and isolate itself from Europe?
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Hope is where the wild things are
My wife and I hosted a long-scheduled reunion for US Institute of Peace people last night. They were not for the most part current employees but rather people who worked there in 2005. Friday the current employees of the Institute were abruptly, but not unexpectedly, terminated.
I worked at USIP from 1998 to 2010. I left to teach at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. So my regret for what has happened is personal, not just intellectual. Caveat emptor.
A bit of history
The USIP website is now blocked, allegedly for security reasons. You can be pretty sure that isn’t true, but it means a bit of history is in order. Congress created USIP in 1984 during President Reagan’s presidency. It started life mainly as a grant and fellowship giver but evolved into a thinktank .
After the Bosnian war, it went in a new direction. We called it a “do-tank.” USIP tried to apply what had been learned through its grants, fellowships, and scholarship to real-life conflict situations. That started in the Balkans and then expanded to Iraq, Afghanistan, and in the last two decades many other places. Funding came both from direct Congressional appropriations and through the various Administrations, which would sometimes decide USIP could be helpful.
What USIP did
A few stories may be worth the telling. In about 2004, Don Hays–then the deputy High Representative in Bosnia–got the State Department to fund his effort after leaving Bosnia to help the Bosnians negotiate constitutional amendments. I don’t remember the cost, but it was well under $100,000, plus Don’s salary, which State was already committed to paying. The negotiations succeeded, but the constitutional amendments failed in the Bosnian parliament. They missed a two-thirds majority by just two votes. I think it now clear that those constitutional amendments would have vastly improved the situation in Bosnia.
After the invasion of Iraq, USIP requested and received $10 million for peacebuilding work there, focused mainly on preventing sectarian strife and helping establish rule of law. That effort aimed to tamp down a mostly Sunni rebellion against the Shia majority. USIP helped to train a network of Iraqis of all ethnicities who continue to this day to try to prevent sectarian and ethnic frictions from turning violent.
I could continue. USIP worked with amounts of money that were small in Defense Department terms to support US national security objectives in conflict zones abroad. Some of us were politically liberal and some of us were politically conservative, but we all recognized that benefits of preventing violent conflict in places the US had vital interests.
Fast forward
USIP made it through the Bush and Obama Administrations in decent shape financially, though it relied increasingly on transfers through the administration rather than direct appropriations from Congress. It also moved in 2011 to its new building at 23rd and Constitution. Its President, Richard Solomon, raised a lot of private money for the building. He also got the Navy to transfer the land to USIP.
USIP remains a non-governmental organization run by a bipartisan board appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The Administration had three ex-officio members on the Board: the Secretaries of State and Defense as well as the President of the National Defense University.
What Trump is doing
The Trump Administration now claims that the President has fired all the appointed members of the board (Democrats and Republicans, with one independent). The ex-officio members have appointed a new USIP chief executive. Courts will decide whether the Trumpkins can get away with this. But it is a dramatic departure from how USIP has been run in the past. Whether a quorum was required to fire the then acting president of the Institute is unclear.
Trump has not made clear what he intends to do with the Institute. But it won’t be surprising if he tries to close it entirely. That’s what he has done with so many vaguely similar “quangos,” that is quasi-nongovernmental organizations. Their claims to independence are offensive to the right-wing would-be autocrats who believe in the “unitary executive.” They refuse to tolerate any independent institutions, governmental or quasi-governmental. Trump will try to get his patsies on the Supreme Court to validate their views. They are also trying to limit the independence of nongovernmental institutions like law firms and universities.
Hope, or not?
I don’t have much hope for USIP’s future. I do hope its lawyers win in court and get a big settlement for its employees. But by that time the Institute will be nothing more than a shell. A future Administration could rebuild it, but not in the current political environment. Bipartisanship has gone the way of the dodo.
The baton passes now to other institutions worldwide. Europe has an Institute of Peace, as do any number of countries that mimicked USIP, to one extent or another. Hope lies wherever the restraining and suffocating writ of the Trump Administration does not extend. That’s where the wild things are.
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America made a giant mistake
The Signal chat is now the talk of DC. On it, Secretary of Defense Hegseth shared information that could have given an adversary opportunity to kill American service people. That’s all you really need to know. But it turns out that information came from an Israeli clandestine source, which compounds to damage. Signal is a commercial system not authorized for classified information. Hegseth denies it, to his discredit, but the operational information he shared was unquestionably classified.
Dumb and dumber
National Security Advisor Walz and Director of National Intelligence Gabbard compounded the sin. They lied to Congress about the contents of the chat, which has now been published by The Atlantic. Vice President Vance and President Trump claim they and their underlings did nothing wrong. These are stupid denials. Any lower-ranking official who did what Hegseth did would be courtmartialed or fired. The US Government would never again hire someone who did what he did. No one who did it would ever be hired by the US Government again. We are talking gross malfeasance here, not nuance. If he doesn’t resign, Hegseth should be fired.
Now Trump is trying to distract attention. He has announced 25% tariffs on cars. Tomorrow it will be something else. He is determined to create turmoil. It shifts the ground under his critics’ feet and prevents accountability. Almost no one has noticed Trump’s Executive Order on elections, which is intended to severely curtail voting by poor people and minorities. That’s a big win for him.
Dumbest
But the dumbest thing is the supposed ceasefire agreements in Ukraine. There Trump has promised Putin sanctions relief in exchange for an end to fighting in the Black Sea. That disadvantages the Ukrainians in two different ways. The Russians were no longer fighting in the Black Sea, as Ukrainian naval drones had chased their warships into port. Relieving them of financial sanctions is a big reward for nothing.
Trump has already given Moscow a bar on Ukrainian NATO membership and permission to hold on to occupied territory. Sanctions relief is a hat trick for Putin. He is laughing at Trump, who is playing the fool. I shouldn’t say playing. He is a fool.
The world already knows what Americans need to realize
This Administration is dumb and ill-intentioned. It is literally knocking on doors in Greenland looking for people who want to meet the Vice President and his wife. Everyone is saying a polite “no.” Denmarkers wouldn’t be so polite. In fact, it is now hard to imagine any European country that would be pleased with a high level visit from the US, other than Viktor Orban’s autocratic Hungary.
The situation isn’t much better in the Middle East. Only Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would welcome Trump with open arms. Kurkiye’s President Erdogan might like a visit, but only because it would give him the chance to roll Trump again, as he has repeatedly done in the past. Even his friendship with the Saudis has cooled. No more sword dancing. Not to mention Canada, where Trump’s offensive behavior has infuriated a normally equilibrated citizenry.
It will take more time for Americans to fathom the mistake they have made. But buyers’ remorse will set in. Unfortunately, it will only be after tens of thousands have lost their jobs, many farmers have lost their farms, inflation has ravaged the country again, leading scientists have fled for greener pastures, untold numbers have lost their livelihood and lives, and the world has lost confidence in American leadership.
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