Category: Daniel Serwer
Why a PM resigning doesn’t matter
I’ve been preoccupied with events in DC and thus slow to comment on Serbian politics. Certainly the resignation of the prime minister is a credit to the demonstrators. They have maintained the pressure for months in the aftermath of the collapse of the Novi Sad train station canopy.
Waves of protests
In my way of counting this is a third wave of recent popular protests against President Aleksandar Vucic. The first wave was the anti-violence protests starting in late 2023. The second was environmental protests against lithium mining last summer and fall. Now we are seeing massive protests asking for accountability for the Novi Sad tragedy, which occurred last November 1. The common thread is that Serbs are asking for more transparency, accountability, and rule of law.
The protests show profound dissatisfaction with Vucic. He has introduced a semi-authoritarian system. The state vilifies and arrests dissenters, denies them outlets for free expression, and buys support with government jobs and contracts. Meanwhile, he and his allies are harvesting rents from any and all who want to do business in Serbia.
While united on the street, the opposition is fragmented among small political parties and their egotistical leaders. There is no opposition ready to govern. Some of the demonstrators are calling for a technical government to prepare for elections. Vucic won’t likely do that. He doesn’t hesitate to cheat when need be during electoral campaigns and at the polls. A technical government might put a crimp in his style.
Democratic backsliding has worked well for Vucic
But he is also genuinely popular in much of the country. He is a devoted Serbian nationalist who has attracted a lot of foreign investment from China, Europe, and the US. Despite his democratic backsliding, he has also gained political support from Washington and Brussels. They have regarded him as better than any of the conceivable alternatives, which are mostly on the nationalist right. And they like Vucic’s supply of ammunition to Ukraine and his willingness to mine lithium. Fawning over Vucic by the US government and by Germany has been particularly noteworthy.
Beijing has been investing mainly in steel, other metals, mining, and the automotive industry. In addition to its potential future in the European Union, Serbia is attractive partly because of lax regulation and enforcement. The Novi Sad collapse is symptomatic. China also supplies internal security technology that Vucic no doubt appreciates.
Moscow is not a big investor anywhere these days but gets lots of electronic components and political support from Serbia. Most notable is Serbia’s refusal to align with EU Ukraine sanctions.
One lapdog is as good as another
In this context, the resignation of a prime minister with little power doesn’t make a lot of difference. Vucic is the man, not Vucevic. If he thinks he’ll win, or can ensure that he’ll win, the President will call new elections. That has worked for him in the past to quiet protests. Or he will choose another lapdog prime minister who will do what the President wants without objection.
The prospects for real democracy in Serbia are dim, but of course that is true elsewhere as well. But that’s not a good reason not to try. My sentiments are with the demonstrators.
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Disgrace everywhere you look
Less than two weeks in, the Trump Administration is proving more malicious, less competent, and more destructive than we imagined. The President can’t even pretend to mourn the victims of a plane crash. He needed to parade his racism in front of the cameras as well by blaming the crash on diversity. It turns out the Federal Aviation Administration initiated its diversity program during his own first term. His tariffs on Mexico and Canada will jack up prices and deflate the stock market by Monday.
The firing of dozens of experience prosecutors will hamper the Justice Department for years. The consequent lawsuits will cost more than the money saved by reducing the payroll. And the incompetents he’ll hire as replacements will be mostly white sycophantic males with little experience and no integrity.
The disgrace in the Senate
Some of the worst of Trump’s minions have been testifying this week in the Senate. RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Kash Patel lied and insulted their ways through hours of painful fraud and bluster. The results were embarrassing.
RFK Jr. demonstrated no knowledge and no aptitude for Health and Human Services Secretary. Gabbard couldn’t call Edward Snowden a traitor because she had defended his theft and publication of top secret documents. I wouldn’t call him a traitor either until a court tries and convicts him. But she could have just that: he should come home for trial. Kash Patel just denied saying things he has said. The FBI will be Trump’s personal police force by the time he is through with it.
The disgrace at the borders
Trump is having a hard time on immigration. Not many people are crowding the border, because Biden already fixed that. Trump is flying a few immigrants to their home countries at high cost, without demonstrating they are criminals. And to get some more attention he promises to store 30,000 of them at Guantanamo. The US Government found it difficult to imprison 800 there, most of whom turned out not to be terrorists. The GTMO military commission has convicted only eight. The yearly cost of incarceration was $10 million per detainee.
Meanwhile, the Administration has canceled permission for fully cleared refugees from Afghanistan and other war zones to enter the US. It continues to lump asylum seekers with criminals. And it has canceled temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans.
The disgrace in the budget
Trump initially stopped all Federal grants and contracts, including for major programs like Medicaid and for foreign assistance. That it turned out upset Republicans, as a lot of the money goes to red states:
So now they have lifted the general stop order but are slow walking specific programs through approval. The result is enormous confusion inside the government and the organizations that receive money from it. Everyone is working feverishly to get exceptions. That is a tremendous waste of resources.
Trump tried once before to stop foreign assistance, to Ukraine in 2019. The House of Representatives impeached him for that. Congress appropriates money. It is the President’s responsibility to execute what the Congress says it is for. He has no power to divert the money without at least informing Congress, which of course Trump has not done.
What he wants to do with the money is worse than his effort to slow its disbursement. He wants to extend the tax cuts for the rich approved in 2017. He also wants to pay for prestige projects his billionaire friends have been advocating. Those include sending people to Mars and buying Greenland. No doubt they will also convince him to provide cheap energy for the Artificial Intelligence projects.
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Havoc is no way to run a country
President Trump’s freeze on government grants and contracts is already wrecking havoc in my world. I’m not, even indirectly, the intended recipient of any frozen funds. But organizations I know and appreciate are laying off personnel, stiffing suppliers, and disrupting their programs.
This is loony. If this lasts 90 days, it will create economic havoc and even cause serious health problems, since Medicaid is affected. Longer will generate recession. Trump inherited a thriving economy. He is now imploding it.
A Federal judge yesterday afternoon froze the freeze, but only temporarily. No doubt this lawless Administration will continue to not make good on many disbursements. Then it will wait for the courts to rule and appeal each decision that goes against Trump.
Why?
The Administration has several reasons for this churlish behavior. It say it wants expenditure aligned with Trump’s priorities. Things don’t work that way. Congress gets to appropriate funds. It is the President’s responsibility to execute what the Congress wants. Trump’s effort to freeze appropriated funds for Ukraine was the cause of his first impeachment. It’s not a lesson he wants to learn.
What are Trump’s priorities? Cutting expenditure is one of them. That will make room for extension of the tax cuts he got approved in a Republican Congress in 2017. They helped mainly the wealthy, including people like himself. But they did not deliver economic benefits.
The idea behind this debacle is not only to cut government expenditure. It’s to shift whatever remains. Trump has already spoken warmly about funding manned flight to Mars and a missile defense shield for the US. He wants to buy Greenland. His “drill baby drill” motto is aimed at providing energy to satisfy the voracious appetite of artificial intelligence software. Trump is a sucker for high-profile national prestige projects that will put money in his billionaire friends’ pockets. He figures they will also bring him attention and adulation.
Disaster awaits
Quite the contrary. Trump’s tax cuts and prestige projects are on the road to national ruin. Trump has no idea what the government does and how it enables the economy to grow. Trillion-dollar cuts, which is what he promised, are nowhere to be found without causing serious economic pain.
The prestige projects are not so hot either.
The Israeli missile defense he wants for the US has an effective range of less than 50 miles.
Denmark isn’t selling Greenland, though it is willing to talk about security as well as development of its resources.
Renewable sources of electricity are now competitive with fossil fuels.
It will be hard to find investors to expand drilling dramatically, especially as the US is already net energy independent. Courtesy of Joe Biden.
Manned flight to Mars is a boondoggle for Elon Musk. There is nothing that robots can’t do better than human beings on Mars. They also don’t get bored on a 9 month voyage (one way).
Kamala Harris had it right:
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Four more years is four too many
It’s a sad day for America. Not only has Donald Trump re-entered the White House. His wealthy buddies are no longer hiding their allegiances. Elon Musk is not only supporting Alternative für Deutschland. He is copying a salute most Germans still remember with shame.
Off to the expected scams
Trump’s first moves are against immigrants and in favor of the fossil fuel industry. Ignoring the 14th amendment, he is trying to deprive people born in the US of citizenship it provides. He has also blocked asylum seekers. Raids that will round up legal as well as illegal immigrants are imminent. Trump wants to get rid of Biden’s efforts to slow global warming and accelerate oil, gas, and coal production. He is withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, which allows Washington to define its own measures to prevent climate change. He has also ordered withdrawal from the World Health Organization.
Trump is also promising Tik Tok relief from a law that provides for no possibility of relief from the president. He is pardoning 1500 criminals, most of whom attacked the Capitol violently on January 6, 2021. The Trump family has launched a crypto “memecoin” that has already put billions in his pockets. It will implode, like other such frauds, plundering late-comer investors. Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1 will cause a major trade war. That will jack up inflation and impoverish many people in the Western Hemisphere.
Don’t lose sight of the baseline
Biden is leaving office with an extraordinary record of achievement. Federal and state prosecutors, including in deep red states, have found no reason to prosecute any Biden Administration political appointees. None have resigned in scandal. Biden pardoned his family not because they had done something wrong but because he rightfully feared Trumped-up charges against them. Trump’s nominee for FBI Director has promised such revenge. Note he did not pardon himself.
The economic stats at the end of 2024 are these:
- Unemployment 4.1% (12/24)
- GDP growth 3.0% (IV 24)
- Inflation 2.9% (2024)
- Budget deficit $2T (2024)
- Stock market (DJ) 43k, more or less
What are the odds that Trump will beat all these benchmarks? Close to zero. Three of them? Not much higher. We’ll have to wait and see.
Here are just a few other Biden claims:
—Strongest economy in the world —Nearly 16 million new jobs, a record —Wages up —Inflation coming down —Racial wealth gap lowest in 20 years —Historic infrastructure investments —Lower prescription drug costs —Record health insurance coverage —Most significant climate law ever —First major gun safety law in 30 years —First Black woman on Supreme Court —Help for 1 million veterans exposed to toxins —Violent crime rate at 50-year low —Border crossings lower than when Trump left office
Foreign policy
I fault Biden for his sloppy handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal and his failure to rein in Israel in Gaza. That undermined his claim that America stands up for democracy. He responded reasonably well and quickly to the fall of Assad in Syria. With Iran, Biden failed to revive the nuclear agreement. That has left a big challenge for Trump. But if Biden had succeeded, Trump would have withdrawn again.
Biden was great reunifying and rallying NATO to support for Ukraine. Fearful of provoking war between the US and Russia, however, Biden was too hesitant in providing long-range weapons. I hope Trump will give Kyiv all it needs to win. In the Balkans, Biden’s knowledgeable minions were miserably unsuccessful.
Biden was good on China, Taiwan, India, and Asia in general. But he couldn’t refocus more attention there due to events in the Middle East. We’ll have to see if Trump does better.
Next four years
Half the country did not think this was enough. They disliked Kamala Harris, an articulate, experienced, competent, Black and Indian woman. She had been a successful prosecutor and a senator. They thought they would do better with a convicted felon, womanizer, racist, and flim-flam man. I’ll be interested to hear what they have to say after four more years of his bombast.
PS: Let me be clear: four more yours is four too many. But the last thing I would want is to see the Vice President in the Oval Office. He is arguably worse.
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Beyond ceasefire, what can really happen?
The Gaza ceasefire went into effect today, after a few hours delay. Reports are that humanitarian supplies are entering. Hamas and Israel are arranging or exchange of hostages and prisoners. This phase is to last 6 weeks, after which a more permanent cessation of hostilities is to commence. What are the prospects for a longer agreement?
The next phase
Secretary of State Blinken helpfully outlined the Biden Administration’s plans for phase 2 at the Atlantic Council last week:
We believe that the Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration with responsibility for key civil sectors in Gaza, like banking, water, energy, health, civil coordination with Israel. The international community would provide funding, technical support, and oversight. The interim administration would include Palestinians from Gaza and representatives from the PA—selected following meaningful consultation with communities in Gaza—and would hand over complete responsibility to a fully reformed PA administration as soon as it’s feasible.
The administrators would operate in close cooperation with a senior UN official, who should oversee the international stabilization and recovery effort.
An interim security mission would be made up of members of partner nation security forces and vetted Palestinian personnel. Its responsibilities would include creating a secure environment for humanitarian and reconstruction efforts and ensuring border security, which is crucial to preventing smuggling that could allow Hamas to rebuild its military capacity. We would stand up a new initiative to train, to equip, to vet a PA-led security force for Gaza to focus on law and order and gradually take over for the interim security mission.
These arrangements would be enshrined in a UN Security Council resolution.
Some of our partners have already expressed their willingness to contribute troops and police for such a mission—but if, and only if, it is agreed that Gaza and the West Bank are reunified under a reformed PA as part of a pathway to an independent Palestinian state.
This depicts a fairly conventional late 1990s style “integrated” intervention. The UN Security Council authorized interim administrations like this in Bosnia and Herzegovina (1995), East Timor (1999), and Kosovo (1999). They were not brilliantly successful, but they markedly improved the situation in all three places. Blinken omits one essential ingredient for success: executive authority. The UNSC will need to empower the interim authorities to issue laws, arrest people, and use force to protect civilians.
One new wrinkle here is the Palestinians, who are divided politically and geographically. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas has already declared its readiness to take on its assigned role. I don’t know anyone who would agree with that proposition, as he has done little to reform it. Besides, it is going to have trouble gaining traction in territory ruled by Hamas for almost two decades. Hamas has said it is prepared to give up its governance role. But at least some of the remaining Hamas militants are going to make sure the PA has a hard time.
Other new wrinkles
I see little prospect that the current Israeli government will accept what Blinken proposes. Netanyahu will not want the ceasefire to last past 6 weeks. That would mark the beginning of the end for him. His right-wing coalition partners had a hard time accepting the ceasefire. They will not accept an international administration whose mandate includes eventual creation of a Palestinian state. In addition, if the war ends or his government collapses, Netanyahu will have to face prosecution and elections. He doesn’t want that.
It will not be possible to start up an international administration without Israeli cooperation. Neighbors are vital factors in determining the success or failure of post-war stabilization and reconstruction. Arab Gulf states won’t agree to contribute troops, police, and money without Israeli approval.
What remains of Hamas will also oppose the next phase, which threatens to end its rule permanently. After 6 weeks of recuperation and attempts to re-arm, extremists in Hamas will try to derail the process. It will only take an attack or two on innocent Israelis to restart the war.
The final new wrinkle
If ever we get to the next phase, it will be in the Trump Administration. In his first term, Trump gave the Israelis 100% support. He abandoned support for the two-state solution and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. He accepted annexation of the Golan Heights and West Bank settlements as legal. His negotiators put forward a peace plan that paid little attention to the Palestinian goal of statehood.
Trump is reputed to have played a key role in getting the ceasefire. But he did that by threatening Hamas, not the Israelis. Blinken in his remarks at the Atlantic Council suggested that
Israelis must abandon the myth that they can carry out de-facto annexation without cost and consequence to Israel’s democracy, to its standing, to its security.
Trump isn’t going to tell them that. It will happen only if Israelis go to the polls and elect a government committed to Israeli democracy. That is what Netanyahu and his right-wing allies will try to prevent. If they succeed, the war will go on.
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Come for lunch, stay for the talk!
I’ll be speaking at Georgetown 12 noon-2 pm on my latest book: Strengthening International Regimes: the Case of Radiation Protection. I’ll be talking not only about radiation but also other technologies that offer benefits but also post risks. All are welcome (see poster below and video to the right for more details):
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